Zero RB / Anchor RB

[JagFan 97]

I’m guessing some of you listen to Jeff Ratcliff like I do, and I’m curious.  Jeff if you happen to troll this board, I’m a fan.

Im an old school RB/RB guy, and find it hard to break that habit.  With being a couple weeks away from the ff drafts this subject needs discussion.

I’m not looking for arbitrary responses like “draft the best player available”.  I’m looking for input on philosophy.  Are you taking Jefferson over CMC?  Are you drafting 2 RBs in the top 5 rounds?

This is assuming a standard 2RB, 1QB, 2WR/flex, or 3 WR lineup.  1 or .5 PPR.  No super flex.

[LaChup 156]

If we looked at last year, here is what these players averaged per game in one of my leagues

WR/RB - Jefferson 22.29 and Jacobs 20.06 (42.35 points/game)

RB/WR - CMC 22.65 and Waddle 16.18 (38.83 points/game)

RB/RB - CMC 22.65 and Jacobs 20.06 (42.71 points/game)

WR/WR - Jefferson 22.29 and Waddle 16.18 (38.47 points/game)

Understanding the scoring system is key. 

[Ray_T 596]

How i decide:    if you take the best RB on the board in round 1 and that RB is expected to get 24 points per game  and the best WR is expected to get 22 points per game.  if you choose not to take a RB (or WR) in that particular round that is what you are giving up.   then you look at the RB/WR you expect to get in round 2.

Lets say the fantasy points per game for the best RB/WR on the board next round is 20 for the RB/17 for the WR.

the amount of fantasy points you give up by holding off on a round to take a RB is 4 (24-20)    the amount you give up to get the WR is 5.   in this example it makes sense to take the WR in round 1 because the expected loss on your WR1 position is greater than the expected loss on the RB position.

That said, if the highest expected points per game for RB in round 2 is 18 fantasy points, then the dropoff for RB is more steep and it makes sense to take the RB first.

I do this exercise in round 1 (and sometimes round 2) but beyond that it is too difficult as the permutations and combinations of players available is huge.

this also lets you determine if your plan changes if a certain player drops in the draft (if you are picking later in round 1)

 

[plasma george 52]

I always consider 0 RBs, I get booed when I have no RBs, but I like the attention.  I'm 9 out of 10, in an old school league where RBs always get picked first round, with maybe 2 WRs in the first., won't know if this year will be different.

I build a spreadsheet, totaling the projected points for each position for each of my first 6 picks (basically our starters), then shuffle the positions until I get the highest total.  This year I think it will be RB/WR/RB/WR/TE/QB....after the first 6 picks, there's not much difference.  I haven't run the numbers, but hearing the trends, I don't think WR/WR will work out, waiting on RBs, even if I can get Kupp/Hill/Adams.

[nobody 2,055]

Here's the thing.  And I almost hate to post this, but there is no unified theory of drafting that you're going to be able to apply every year.  And "take the best player" isn't correct either believe it or not, although "take the best player that won't be around at a later pick" is a pretty good strategy.

What we're trying to do here is build the best team possible by exploiting market inefficiency.  The reason that changes from year to year is market inefficiency changes from year to year.

For instance, the year Michael Turner went to Atlanta, I knew I could draft him the 4th so I could tilt the early rounds to wide receiver.  Michael Turner being undervalued that year was an inefficiency to exploit.

So the philosophy is to find undervalued players to target and build your draft backwards from there.

[kilroy69 1,008]

I look at it the other way. Instead of going zero RB I want 2 top running backs. In a day and age when the RB is not being used as much those RBS that are going to get 20 carries a game are like gold. 

[Ray_T 596]

32 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I look at it the other way. Instead of going zero RB I want 2 top running backs. In a day and age when the RB is not being used as much those RBS that are going to get 20 carries a game are like gold. 

there is a shortage of those types.  if you can get 2 you're in good shape.

[DrG 94]

Usually go rb wr or wr rb depending on BPA and draft order in a 12 team. If I go 0 rb or RB RB too much temptation to overcompensate later at the position of perceived need.

 

[DrG 94]

I also don’t like the tail end of runs so no rule is 100% absolute.

[GobbleDog 822]

On 8/21/2023 at 11:50 PM, JagFan said:

Im an old school RB/RB guy, and find it hard to break that habit. 

Time to break it. Rb's are the most volatile position in ff (injury / under performance). Investing your most valuable draft capital (1st rd pick) in that position is risky. Years prior it was justified with bell cows. Less so in today's NFL. That said, I'm not married to any strategy. I'll draft a Rb 1st (Ekeler) and 2nd rd too if I think the value is too good to pass up.

After countless mocks from every spot, I do have a general plan (Wr-Rb-Wr-Qb) - designed for my league's particular scoring, but it's dependent on certain players available at certain points. When players I like are gone, I pivot. Some mocks I was forced into zero Rb early because one's I liked were taken. I won't just draft any player for the sake of filling positions.

[Gepetto 990]

You can get 3 startable RBs in the middle rounds so no need to force taking a RB early unless that individual RB is far superior to all other players available in the draft.  Try to draft like every pick is the 1st pick in the draft of the remaining available players (because it is) while also keeping in mind positional values and players at certain positions you can get in mid to later rounds to add value to your team construction.

[plasma george 52]

4 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

You can get 3 startable RBs in the middle rounds so no need to force taking a RB early unless that individual RB is far superior to all other players available in the draft.  Try to draft like every pick is the 1st pick in the draft of the remaining available players (because it is) while also keeping in mind positional values and players at certain positions you can get in mid to later rounds to add value to your team construction.

In your Mocks, what RB1s are you seeing Round 3/4 ?  If we go WR/WR ?

[polecatt 404]

I play dynasty. We keep 8-12 players. I don't trade or chase RBs. If I get a stud or breakout RB, I'll shop them around, can often get great deals.

I try to keep two starting RBs, Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce, outside of that, I just draft the leftovers for depth and a flier or two on rookie RBs.

I go after WRs and have quite the collection. J Jefferson, CeeDee, Kupp, Olave, and Jeudy. I have Kyle Pitts at TE, haven't given up hope on him yet. J Herbert and D Watson at QB.

It's worked well for me so far.

[Gepetto 990]

33 minutes ago, plasma george said:

In your Mocks, what RB1s are you seeing Round 3/4 ?  If we go WR/WR ?

I'm just stating my draft strategy that worked when I use to be in a regular draft in a competitive fftoday 12 team league and a work league. I'm only playing auction the last few years so not doing mock drafting.

[Gepetto 990]

35 minutes ago, plasma george said:

In your Mocks, what RB1s are you seeing Round 3/4 ?  If we go WR/WR ?

These are the RBs being overlooked that I'll be targeting in my auction draft that go in middle rounds: 

James Cook

Khalil Herbert

I'm very high on both of those RBs and feel that they will be solid starts every week.

I also like Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Dameon Pierce, and Rachaad White.

 

[GobbleDog 822]

Great advice I once heard - draft your players. Don't over think adp and pass on players you like because they're supposed to go the following round. That's a strategy for those who've done no meaningful research. If you're confident in player evaluations, draft them!

Obviously I'll wait if I know they'll fall, but when I don't - I shamelessly reach. Taboo in ff, but don’t sweat it for a measly round. I didn’t waste time analyzing metrics, mock drafting and listing to opinions, just to lose out on gems playing the adp game. Draft your players.

[weepaws 2,478]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

These are the RBs being overlooked that I'll be targeting in my auction draft that go in middle rounds: 

James Cook

Khalil Herbert

I'm very high on both of those RBs and feel that they will be solid starts every week.

I also like Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams, Dameon Pierce, and Rachaad White.

 

Much easier to target players in a auction league.  You simply bid on the player that’s the next up.  Redraft takes a lottt more draft strategy during the draft.  

[weepaws 2,478]

Every single pick one makes , should be made to win that rd.  So many drafters choke and puke when it comes to drafting, even the most prepared of them, they start following the flow of positions that are being drafted.  I don’t ever have a true game plan, wr/wr rb/rb wr/rb rb/wr.  I have my two cheat sheets one for .5, and one for my full ppr, when I finely get my two cheat sheets done, they are a combination of my own felling,  the rankings from Doug’s big board, and RtSports. And from all the wise ff posters in this room,  then I’m ready to win 

[Gepetto 990]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Much easier to target players in a auction league.  You simply bid on the player that’s the next up.  Redraft takes a lottt more draft strategy during the draft.  

Yes, it's easier in auction, but I use to predetermine almost my entire team in every redraft I've ever done. And my teams were always in the playoffs if not outright winning the whole thing. ADP is wrong. I ranked my own players by tier and drafted by it.

[weepaws 2,478]

1 minute ago, Gepetto said:

Yes, it's easier in auction, but I use to predetermine almost my entire team in every redraft I've ever done. And my teams were always in the playoffs if not outright winning the whole thing. ADP is wrong. I ranked my own players by tier and drafted by it.

The other reason you always made the pls might be the lack of quality of the other owners.  

[Gepetto 990]

26 minutes ago, weepaws said:

The other reason you always made the pls might be the lack of quality of the other owners.  

Nope, they were all top notch, very experienced, very good, some exceptional, FF players online from fftoday who live all over the country. I know what I'm doing and they did too. 

[Ray_T 596]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Much easier to target players in a auction league.  You simply bid on the player that’s the next up.  Redraft takes a lottt more draft strategy during the draft.  

it may be easier to target the guys you want but its also easier to screw yourself over in an auction league.  

quite often the players you are targetting are the same guys 2 or 3 other guys are targetting.   so its very easy to get into a bidding war and over pay for a player.    Sometimes it turns out ok but a lot of times it doesnt.

further to that... if you wait for your player and let other good players go with the thought you are gonna buy this player..... you can get screwed because if someone else is doing the same and they have more money, you can easily end up with nobody because you lost the auction or massively overpaying for that guy and have no money to spend elsewhere.   I've seen it many times.

so the way you prepare for an auction is a lot different than the way you prepare for a draft.    you need to be a lot more patient and disciplined in this format

[weepaws 2,478]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

it may be easier to target the guys you want but its also easier to screw yourself over in an auction league.  

quite often the players you are targetting are the same guys 2 or 3 other guys are targetting.   so its very easy to get into a bidding war and over pay for a player.    Sometimes it turns out ok but a lot of times it doesnt.

further to that... if you wait for your player and let other good players go with the thought you are gonna buy this player..... you can get screwed because if someone else is doing the same and they have more money, you can easily end up with nobody because you lost the auction or massively overpaying for that guy and have no money to spend elsewhere.   I've seen it many times.

so the way you prepare for an auction is a lot different than the way you prepare for a draft.    you need to be a lot more patient and disciplined in this format

Nothing requires more patience and discipline then a non auction redraft.  Talk about strategy and discipline oh my soul, no way is that tougher in a auction. 

[kilroy69 1,008]

16 hours ago, Gepetto said:

These are the RBs being overlooked that I'll be targeting in my auction draft that go in middle rounds: 

James Cook

Khalil Herbert

 

 

I am targeting both of these guys. Especially Herbert. He should have been the starter last year. 

[GobbleDog 822]

Feel like I got a good bead on Cook... lots of receptions, some yardage, scarce Tds. Sorta like Swift.

Herbert is the enigma. I've heard conflicting opinions whether Bears 4th rd pick Roschon Johnson steals the job outright. Even if Herbert (former 6th rd pick) keeps the job, he doesn't catch. So we're left with rushing yards and Tds, after Fields steals some rushes and Tds of course. Herbert is an efficient runner, I'll give him that much.

[Gepetto 990]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Feel like I got a good bead on Cook... lots of receptions, some yardage, scarce Tds. Sorta like Swift.

Herbert is the enigma. I've heard conflicting opinions whether Bears 4th rd pick Roschon Johnson steals the job outright. Even if Herbert (former 6th rd pick) keeps the job, he doesn't catch. So we're left with rushing yards and Tds, after Fields steals some rushes and Tds of course. Herbert is an efficient runner, I'll give him that much.

He doesn't catch? He just had a screen he took for a 60 yard touchdown with the first string offense this preseason.

[GobbleDog 822]

30 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

He doesn't catch? He just had a screen he took for a 60 yard touchdown with the first string offense this preseason.

I don't know what he did in college, but his two years in the NFL he averaged 0.9 targets per game - both seasons. Either the Bears don't think he can catch or they just don't play that style football.

[Ray_T 596]

39 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

He doesn't catch? He just had a screen he took for a 60 yard touchdown with the first string offense this preseason.

its funny, hes a smallish guy(only 5 ft 9).  you would think hed be a speedster who racks up yards after the catch but he doesnt get targeted a whole lot in the pass game.

a guy of his size likely isnt gonna last long running between the tackles.

maybe I'm out to lunch on this..... or chicago just isnt utilizing his skillset.   in his last year of college, he had 10 receptions for 170 yards and one TD  for a 17.9 yard average.   you'd think they'd try to see if they can split him wide and use him in that capacity.   he should be good.

but then I look at the scouting report going into his draft year:

Khalil Herbert Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

and the report says :

• Doesn't find his man consistently in pass pro.
• Effort and technique might make him a non-option on passing downs.

so maybe his piss poor blocking makes them not want to have him in the backfield on passing downs.   not sure.

[Gepetto 990]

D'Onta Foreman catches it even less than Khalil Herbert so they're going to have to put somebody in there. Roschon Johnson the Bears rookie rb didn't catch much at all in college (he didn't rush much either, behind Bijan Robinson).

[Gepetto 990]

Regarding Khalil Herbert 

"He can really do a great job of hitting the home run," said coach Matt Eberflus. "He's got great vision. He's got great cutback ability. He can take the ball outside, but he's really good at cutting it back when it's there. We're excited where he is."

[weepaws 2,478]

He’s the best rb named Herbert on the Bears.  I think his workload will be more disperse among the other two Rbs has the season goes along.  Play him early and often.  

[rallo 132]

I have changed my strategy this year as I have usually been an RB guy that drafts QB and TE late. That has burned me the last two years and I am looking to shake things up. So far my best mocks have been going WR followed by Hurts then Andrews. I'm then keying on Akers/Montgomery/Herbert/Gibson/Perine with later flyers on Warren and Bigsby.

I have been happy settling for guys like Evans/Sutton/Williams/Aiyuk for my WR 2/3. We will see how the real draft shakes out... 

[LaChup 156]

If RBs are the most volatile position, doesn't that make the top 2 RBs that much more valuable? CMC and Ekeler are both worthy of top 5 picks IMHO.

[weepaws 2,478]

I have Ekeler #2 behind Jefferson, and Mccaffery #4 behind Chase.  

[Ray_T 596]

7 hours ago, LaChup said:

If RBs are the most volatile position, doesn't that make the top 2 RBs that much more valuable? CMC and Ekeler are both worthy of top 5 picks IMHO.

yeah reliable RB's should be at a premium.   supply and demand.

thats not what the ADP's are showing but that perhaps is a different argument

[Ray_T 596]

On 8/23/2023 at 9:11 AM, kilroy69 said:

I am targeting both of these guys. Especially Herbert. He should have been the starter last year. 

I"m targetting Cook.   not quite as keen on Herbert but thats mostly because of the dumpster fire the Chicago offense has been of late.

[weepaws 2,478]

I think Herbert is in a bad position, Foreman is going to be the short yardage rb, he doesn’t run long, but he runs hard on n shirt yardage situation, I think the Rookie R Johnson is overall the better talent.  I find it interesting that they lost Montgomery and replaced him with two Rbs.   

Herbert strength is big play ability, but you can’t make a living on that happing.   If you buy Herbert play him a lot early, and getting ready for the RBBC to come.  

[weepaws 2,478]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I"m targetting Cook.   not quite as keen on Herbert but thats mostly because of the dumpster fire the Chicago offense has been of late.

.5, and full ppr, I’m targeting him in both leagues, I have him ranked higher then most, so based on his adp, I’ll be taking him a bit early.  

D Harris has an injury problem, and L Murray is the next one up.  It’s going to be hard to count on Cook for short yardage like goal line work, but he’s going to get first/second down work , plus heavy usage in the passing game.  I think rb2 it’s out of the question.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

10 hours ago, LaChup said:

If RBs are the most volatile position, doesn't that make the top 2 RBs that much more valuable? CMC and Ekeler are both worthy of top 5 picks IMHO.

The volatility isn’t limited to outside the top 2, top 5 or top 20.  That is the point, every year there are top RBs who are considered the “safest” that get injured and don’t put up the numbers expected.  By taking two of these you are playing with higher odds of that volatility hitting you.  
They are “worthy” of course of these picks but percentage wise you are taking on a higher risk than using one do those first picks on a top end WR.  Now if you “hit” on those top 2 RBs then you’ll likely be rewarded handsomely if remotely competent in drafting the rest of your roster.  Risk / reward of course… 

[weepaws 2,478]

I agree, I think WRs are a bit safer of a early rd pick, but I’m a rb dude, so I’ll me looking rb early myself.  League Winners imo.