Haley leads Biden by 10 points, Trump and DeSantis lead by single digits

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

We can discuss Biden/Trump if that matchup actually occurs.  I don't blame you for pussing out on your original bet offer though.  We don't even have to go back to 1980.  We'll just go with every prediction you made at FBG's.  Bet you puss out on that one too though.

No. Of course I get things wrong all the time. That would be a stupid wager. But in my time at FBG I predicted Obama in 2008, Obama in 2012 (though I didn’t vote for him either time) Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. If you want to have a bet on that fine but you’ll lose. 

[Ron_Artest 1,532]

4 minutes ago, Strike said:

We can discuss Biden/Trump if that matchup actually occurs.

puss

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

Just now, Ron_Artest said:

puss

He’s so weak

[Strike 5,544]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

No. Of course I get things wrong all the time. That would be a stupid wager. But in my time at FBG I predicted Obama in 2008, Obama in 2012 (though I didn’t vote for him either time) Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. If you want to have a bet on that fine but you’ll lose. 

You said EVERY election.  Now backtracking.  Typical poosey Tim.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

Just now, Strike said:

You said EVERY election.  Now backtracking.  Typical poosey Tim.

OMG. 
the only bet I offered was about the future. You won’t take me up on it. 

[Strike 5,544]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

OMG. 
the only bet I offered was about the future. You won’t take me up on it. 

Sorry pal.  When someone says to me,

Quote

I was right about Biden, right about every election before that going back to 1980. Do you want to have a wager?

I think it's reasonable to think that the wager they're offering is about the statement they JUST made, not about something completed unrelated.  But let's assume you're correct.  Why won't you bet me on the statement above?  Do you not stand by it?  Why so scared to bet on that? 

[tubby_mcgee 701]

29 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Soundly defeated. Some of the swing states will be close but they will ALL go to Biden. 

The problem I have is that I, like many Americans...do not trust the results.  I think there is a difference between "being declared the winner" and  "having the most votes".

Just my personal opinion.   Like I said...I've seen it at the small level. I saw 10k in CASH exchange hands to make sure a certain thing happened with a certain event that could have went one of two ways.  When it happens at the bottom level, only a complete reetard would think "Oh...heck no.... everything is on the up and up when it comes to US politics".  And the 10k....absolutely swayed the outcome of this "event" I'm referring to.  And to this day....very few folks know.

 

Actually, it came full circle.  Someone did say "I heard there was money exchanged".  The other party called them a jealous conspiracy theorist or something like that.  And everybody around giggled, basically all agreeing that the thought of someone being paid off was silly.

I just sat quietly.

 

[jonmx 2,429]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I said he would be a non-factor and I meant it. Do you want a separate wager on that? Here it is: I will bet you that RFK’s ultimate numbers are not strong enough in a single state as to make a difference between the two main guys. How much do you want to bet about this? 

So are you saying if Biden beats Trump (or vice versa) in any swing state by 2 points, you don't think RFK jr. will get more than 2 points?   I will take $100 on that.  

 

Tim in 2008:  I was wrong about the Latinos. I tend to be good at hindsight analysis (or I like to think so) but rather lousy at prognostication. I think there are tensions between Latinos and Blacks, and I also think that McCain is respected for his push for immigration reform.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

Just now, Strike said:

Sorry pal.  When someone says to me,

I think it's reasonable to think that the wager they're offering is about the statement they JUST made, not about something completed unrelated.  But let's assume you're correct.  Why won't you bet me on the statement above?  Do you not stand by it?  Why so scared to bet on that? 

Because #1 I was only referring to Presidential elections, #2 I was only referring to final predictions, in between I often go back and forth, #3 it’s boring. I don’t dwell on the past whether I’m right or wrong. That’s why this whole thing of Blue Horseshoe going through hundreds of my old posts is so insipid to me. I don’t mind a good wager but it needs to be about what’s going to happen. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

2 minutes ago, jonmx said:

So are you saying if Biden beats Trump (or vice versa) in any swing state by 2 points, you don't think RFK jr. will get more than 2 points?   I will take $100 on that.  

 

Tim in 2008:  I was wrong about the Latinos. I tend to be good at hindsight analysis (or I like to think so) but rather lousy at prognostication. I think there are tensions between Latinos and Blacks, and I also think that McCain is respected for his push for immigration reform.

Sure, $100. 
 

at least you have the guts to actually make a bet. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

8 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

OMG. 
the only bet I offered was about the future. You won’t take me up on it. 

Strike is so dumb that he'll vote on the past and lose.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

“I want to talk about Gov. Newsom. Want to thank him,” Biden said at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, according to a transcript released by the White House. “He’s been one hell of a governor, man. Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.”

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/biden-floats-newsom-for-president-apec-in-sf-18496249.php

 

Newsom just waiting in the wings to take the DNC nom from Biden when he is finally told his time is over by his handlers.  Newsome odds have dropped from 20-1 six months ago, to 12-1 and now only 6-1, third best odds in the field.  Get yo popcorn ready... 

[Strike 5,544]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Because #1 I was only referring to Presidential elections, #2 I was only referring to final predictions, in between I often go back and forth, #3 it’s boring. I don’t dwell on the past whether I’m right or wrong. That’s why this whole thing of Blue Horseshoe going through hundreds of my old posts is so insipid to me. I don’t mind a good wager but it needs to be about what’s going to happen. 

Next time say "every presidential election."  That's the problem with people in today's society.  There was a time when people understand that language matters, and being accurate and concise is part of that.  Or else you're just backtracking because I called your bluff.  Such a poosey.

[Ron_Artest 1,532]

Just now, Strike said:

Such a poosey.

says the guy that is too scared to accept the bet.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Next time say "every presidential election."  That's the problem with people in today's society.  There was a time when people understand that language matters, and being accurate and concise is part of that.  Or else you're just backtracking because I called your bluff.  Such a poosey.

I think the problem with todays society is that there are too many a$$holes. 

[TheNewGirl 1,491]

29 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’m not that confident on every swing state: There might be an exception. I am VERY confident that Biden will beat Trump. 

Ok. 

Why? What's your case to be o confident? Is it the way polls look? What gives you that assumption/prediction? 

I honestly want to hear. 

[HellToupee 1,776]

18 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

He’s so weak

We’re not talking squissy weak , are we?

[Strike 5,544]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I think the problem with todays society is that there are too many a$$holes. 

Then stop being one.

[TheNewGirl 1,491]

9 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

“I want to talk about Gov. Newsom. Want to thank him,” Biden said at the Exploratorium in San Francisco, according to a transcript released by the White House. “He’s been one hell of a governor, man. Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.”

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/biden-floats-newsom-for-president-apec-in-sf-18496249.php

 

Newsom just waiting in the wings to take the DNC nom from Biden when he is finally told his time is over by his handlers.  Newsome odds have dropped from 20-1 six months ago, to 12-1 and now only 6-1, third best odds in the field.  Get yo popcorn ready... 

I've been saying for MONTHS that Newsom will try and run. No one thinks this is true. 

[HellToupee 1,776]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I think the problem with todays society is that there are too many a$$holes. 

Did you dip into the work crews Modelo??

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,106]

3 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

I've been saying for MONTHS that Newsom will try and run. No one thinks this is true. 

if he runs, and wins, that will be then end of America as we know it.  It will become Amerika with the hammer and sickle.  Of course, NOT for him and his cronies, but for the little people.

He - and his liberal cronies - have ruined CA.  He is the absolute WORST of the left.

[HellToupee 1,776]

timmay used to do the same degenerate bet thing back at the other place. The owner had to shoot him down

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,106]

37 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Let’s put some skin out there. I’ll make you the same offer I made Strike. $5000. 

You're talking to the wrong guy.  You'll have to find someone who is willing to gamble large sums of money because I suck at political predictions which is why you won't find me bragging about how great I am at it and then betting on them.

But, hey, at least your willing to put up your Daddy's money and lose it.  So that counts for something, I guess.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I like Haley and I think she very well could do better than Trump in the general. But one thing to keep in mind is that she could slip once the attacks come and/or voters get to know her better.

In other words, she’s likely at her high watermark now

[Ron_Artest 1,532]

1 minute ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

You're talking to the wrong guy.  You'll have to find someone who is willing to gamble large sums of money because I suck at political predictions which is why you won't find me bragging about how great I am at it and then betting on them.

At least you're a stand up guy and willing to decline a bet, perfectly acceptable, kudos.  Unlike @Strike who make up bullsheet excuses since he's a pussee.

[Ron_Artest 1,532]

1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

I like Haley and I think she very well could do better than Trump in the general. But one thing to keep in mind is that she could slip once the attacks come and/or voters get to know her better.

In other words, she’s likely at her high watermark now

Part of me still thinks that the republicans are unwilling to get behind a woman.  In an election that is.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

47 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

Ok. 

Why? What's your case to be o confident? Is it the way polls look? What gives you that assumption/prediction? 

I honestly want to hear. 

It’s a fair question and requires a lengthy and thoughtful reply. I have to take care of a few work things and I will get back to you a little later. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

1 hour ago, TheNewGirl said:

Ok. 

Why? What's your case to be o confident? Is it the way polls look? What gives you that assumption/prediction? 

I honestly want to hear. 

OK I have a little more time now. Several points: 

1. Normally every election involving an incumbent is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. Because Biden is so unpopular this should be very bad for him. But not in this case because his opponent will be Donald Trump, and EVERY election involving Trump is a referendum on Trump. He is, without question, the most ubiquitous political figure in American history. Which means that when voters go to the ballot box in 2024, they will be voting on one question only: Trump or no Trump? Biden might as well not be in the picture. 
 

2. We have a strange phenomenon which is almost unique in American politics: Donald Trump is beloved by about 40% of conservatives which is enough to win him the nomination. But he is roundly detested by the rest of the country. I base this not only on polls but on the fact that since 2016 nearly every election, federal state and local, has been a rejection of Trump or the candidates he has endorsed or the policies he is best known as pushing for. Trump DID win in 2016, but it was the equivalent of having a straight flush in poker. 
 

3. Why then is Trump either tied or leading Biden in the polls? The reason is because Democrats and independents are not excited about Joe Biden and would prefer somebody else run. They think he’s too old. But what this really means is that they haven’t accepted what the final matchup is going to be. Once they do, here’s what will happen: reluctant Republicans will vote for Trump but some will stay home. Reluctant Democrats will vote for Biden but almost none will stay home (because they view Trump as an existential threat.) And independents will swing to Biden. Game set and match. 
 

4. There are of course a few caveats and they worry me: young black voters, and young people in general, feeling that none of this matters to them, may stay home. Trump has made some inroads with Latinos and it sounds like Univision is eager to help him. In Michigan Muslims may stay gone because they are angry over Biden’s support for Israel. All of these factors might combine to put Trump over the top. But I believe that’s very unlikely. The reasons to predict a Biden victory are, for me, far more of a likely outcome. However there is no such thing as a sure thing so even though I’m pretty confident my heart will be beating fast on election might for sure. 
 

Anyhow that’s how I see it in a nutshell. You can rip me to shreds now. 

[League Champion 1,911]

 

[Blue Horseshoe 348]

5 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I’m not that confident on every swing state: There might be an exception. I am VERY confident that Biden will beat Trump. 

 

https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/official-donald-j-trump-impeachment-whistleblower-thread.780181/post-22461508

"To nobody’s surprise, many Trump critics here believe that Schiff’s arguments will be long remembered and that Trump will be seen to have committed high crimes for which he was not removed for. Also to nobody’s surprise, some of the Trump fans around here think this will be remembered as Democratic overreach and that Trump’s defense team will prove that point starting tomorrow. 

I’m more sympathetic to the first argument but I don’t think either is correct. Much as I’d like to believe that Schiff’s excellent speeches will be remembered in the manner of Joseph Welch, I don’t think they will be. I don’t think any of the arguments on either side will be remembered."

 

 

 

[lod001 1,344]

fock haley. She's a POS

[BrahmaBulls 763]

8 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Let’s put some skin out there. I’ll make you the same offer I made Strike. $5000. 

Shut the fock up and go pay a mexican a living wage, you piece of sh!t.   You're betting your dads money from mooching off him at the family business anyway.

[Mike Hunt 282]

19 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

No. Of course I get things wrong all the time. That would be a stupid wager. But in my time at FBG I predicted Obama in 2008, Obama in 2012 (though I didn’t vote for him either time) Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. If you want to have a bet on that fine but you’ll lose. 

You predicted??  LOL

That is what all the polls predicted.