The state of the Presidential race

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

I’m starting this thread to discuss the Presidential race, trying to determine who has got the advantage. Not interested in arguing about who I or anyone else WANTS to win, there’s plenty of threads for that, Only an up to date breakdown of who is likely to win. 

So here are my thoughts as of May 6, 2024, based on what I’m reading: 

1. It’s pretty much a dead heat between Biden and Trump. 

2. Trump has a slight lead among all voters. Biden has a slight lead among likely voters. However both leads are within the margin of error, 

3. Trump has a slight lead in most of the battleground states. But this lead was significantly larger 4-5 months earlier; Biden has closed the gap. 
 

4. RFK JR and the other third party candidates  currently have about 8% of the vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that these are votes that Biden would otherwise receive but that is not clear. History suggests that this number will go down as the election gets closer and that come November, it will be nowhere near 8%. 

5. Some polling suggests that if Trump is convicted in the hush money trial that will lose him a significant amount of support. I am extremely skeptical of this.

6. On the main issues that voters claim to be most concerned with, such as the economy, crime, inflation, the border, international affairs, Trump has a commanding 10-12 point advantage in all of these issues. Biden leads in character (though not by much) and on abortion (by a lot.). 
 

There’s a lot more but any thoughts on this so far? 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,624]

its May 6, so let me know when you catch up your thoughts

 

[TheNewGirl 1,053]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

 

5. Some polling suggests that if Trump is convicted in the hush money trial that will lose him a significant amount of support. I am extremely skeptical of this.

6. On the main issues that voters claim to be most concerned with, such as the economy, crime, inflation, the border, international affairs, Trump has a commanding 10-12 point advantage in all of these issues. Biden leads in character (though not by much) and on abortion (by a lot.). 
 

There’s a lot more but any thoughts on this so far? 

His trial outcome will not change my vote. 

Character means nothing when your constituents cannot pay their bills. If those constituents are too focking stupid to realize this, then that's really just too bad for our country. 

 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

Trump theory of winning: Trump will win a majority of the key battleground states. Close to 50% of Latinos will vote for Trump. Disaffected blacks will stay at home (as will Arab Americans in Michigan, and students.) Most Americans will vote their pocketbooks wanting an end to inflation. Trump will flip Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin and maybe Pennsylvania. 
 

Biden theory of winning: The closer we get to the election the more people will realize it’s a binary choice and the election will become a referendum on Donald Trump. Voters will remember everything they dislike about Trump. Blacks and young people will return to the fold, and that will allow Biden to win the swing states. 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

4 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

its May 6, so let me know when you catch up your thoughts

 

Hah! Good point. 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

2 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

His trial outcome will not change my vote. 

Character means nothing when your constituents cannot pay their bills. If those constituents are too focking stupid to realize this, then that's really just too bad for our country. 

 

I don’t think you’re representative of the sort of person whose mind might be changed by a conviction.  But even so as I wrote I’m skeptical that a significant number of minds will be changed. It’s seems to me that opinions about Trump’s character are already locked in to the electorate, 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,864]

This ballbag starting another thread with what he wants. Are you an only child? 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

This ballbag starting another thread with what he wants. Are you an only child? 

I didn’t use to be. Unfortunately I lost my brother to cancer a few years back, shortly before I lost both my parents. 

[Strike 4,051]

Lol I remember you telling me just a few weeks ago how the polls were trending Bidens way and 538 just hadn't caught up yet. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,864]

14 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I didn’t use to be. Unfortunately I lost my brother to cancer a few years back, shortly before I lost both my parents. 

Sorry about that but it’s not what you were asked. 

[TheNewGirl 1,053]

21 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I don’t think you’re representative of the sort of person whose mind might be changed by a conviction.  But even so as I wrote I’m skeptical that a significant number of minds will be changed. It’s seems to me that opinions about Trump’s character are already locked in to the electorate, 

Then what kind of people are you asking? You can't ask for  thoughts but only from specific representatives from a specific group of people; then you're only going to get answers that you want..which isn't really shocking considering it's you. 

Again, I am not voting for Trump based on character, just like I am not not voting for Biden based on his either. Pretty sure I've gone over this as well a billion times. 

What "sort of people" are you looking to respond to your "thoughts" on how the polls are going? 

[Mark Davis 193]

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

Both presumptive nominees are still in plus odds territory.  Shows the significant non-zero odds being baked in that one has to be replaced.  You could bet on Trump and Biden both, and win money as long as one of them actually wins.  Pretty odd dynamic going on.

[TheNewGirl 1,053]

6 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

Both presumptive nominees are still in plus odds territory.  Shows the significant non-zero odds being baked in that one has to be replaced.  You could bet on Trump and Biden both, and win money as long as one of them actually wins.  Pretty odd dynamic going on.

Based on that, do you think someone is fudging numbers a bit to make one look better than the other? Not saying it's happening, but since it's kind of non-normal, what are your thoughts on that? 

[Mark Davis 193]

3 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

Based on that, do you think someone is fudging numbers a bit to make one look better than the other? Not saying it's happening, but since it's kind of non-normal, what are your thoughts on that? 

The books only care about making their vig at the end of the day.  Shows some money is coming in on people like Newsom and others.  I guess there is never an absolute certainty both make it to the general once enough delegates are locked up, but based on the climate and ages of these two I think it's even more so.  If someone was even odds they should be -110, likely a little more on one of these prop bets, perhaps -115ish.  On sports action even is -110 to make the vig for the house.  I'm guessing they are getting enough money on the others coming in that they can afford to pay these slight plus odds on the two favorites.  As morbid as it sounds, these are basically odds that one dies or is replaced on the ballot in some way.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,620]

Just now, Mark Davis said:

The books only care about making their vig at the end of the day.  Shows some money is coming in on people like Newsom and others.  I guess there is never an absolute certainty both make it to the general once enough delegates are locked up, but based on the climate and ages of these two I think it's even more so.  If someone was even odds they should be -110, likely a little more on one of these prop bets, perhaps -115ish.  On sports action even is -110 to make the vig for the house.  I'm guessing they are getting enough money on the others coming in that they can afford to pay these slight plus odds on the two favorites.

I love your posts Mark but I have no idea what you just said here. 

[IGotWorms 3,387]

I’d say it is a dead heat.

Biden has the advantage of the incumbency, though it’s a little muted by the fact that Trump has been president before.

Trump seems to have a decided advantage on many issues and people, for some reason I can’t fathom, think his presidency went better than Biden’s has.

It’s crazy to me that it’s even a question but I’d say, right now, it’s basically 50/50.

Feels like it will change before the election though. Don’t know if it’ll be these criminal trials or the debates or some kind of October surprise, or maybe some outside event like a global recession or a war, but it feels like this race will be different come November.

[Ron_Artest 765]

23 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

Again, I am not voting for Trump based on character, just like I am not not voting for Biden based on his either. Pretty sure I've gone over this as well a billion times. 

Why are you voting for Trump?

[Mark Davis 193]

1 minute ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

I love your posts Mark but I have no idea what you just said here. 

 Basically the book is inferring there is around a 15% chance, maybe a little greater that one/both don't make it to November.

[Ron_Artest 765]

Just now, IGotWorms said:

I’d say it is a dead heat.

Biden has the advantage of the incumbency, though it’s a little muted by the fact that Trump has been president before.

Trump seems to have a decided advantage on many issues and people, for some reason I can’t fathom, think his presidency went better than Biden’s has.

It’s crazy to me that it’s even a question but I’d say, right now, it’s basically 50/50.

Feels like it will change before the election though. Don’t know if it’ll be these criminal trials or the debates or some kind of October surprise, or maybe some outside even like a global recession or a war, but it feels like this race will be different come November.

Economy will be big as will abortion.

People think Trump will be better on the economy simply based on the fact that when he was president inflation was low, and people think it will be low again if he's back, for obvioulsy incorrect reasons.  He can't win on abortion.  So it comes down to Biden's ability to articulate why his economic ideas are better than Trumps.  I'm not sure he can do it.  But I believe abortion will win out anyway.

[IGotWorms 3,387]

2 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

 Basically the book is inferring there is around a 15% chance, maybe a little greater that one/both don't make it to November.

It’s not too crazy if you think about it. They’re both old. Trump has the stress of all these criminal trials. They’ll both have the stress of the campaign 

[Mark Davis 193]

Just now, IGotWorms said:

It’s not too crazy if you think about it. They’re both old. Trump has the stress of all these criminal trials. They’ll both have the stress of the campaign 

No it's definitely a real chance.  To be totally honest, the two odds average to +115.  The book has to make vig so the true imputed odds of one of them NOT winning is probably 20-22%, depending on their calculated rake for this prop bet.

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

53 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I don’t think you’re representative of the sort of person whose mind might be changed by a conviction.  But even so as I wrote I’m skeptical that a significant number of minds will be changed. It’s seems to me that opinions about Trump’s character are already locked in to the electorate, 

Yup.  Republican's know that both candidates are complete douchebags and don't belong in office... the Democrats haven't figured that out yet.

[IGotWorms 3,387]

Just now, Ron_Artest said:

Economy will be big as will abortion.

People think Trump will be better on the economy simply based on the fact that when he was president inflation was low, and people think it will be low again if he's back, for obvioulsy incorrect reasons.  He can't win on abortion.  So it comes down to Biden's ability to articulate why his economic ideas are better than Trumps.  I'm not sure he can do it.  But I believe abortion will win out anyway.

I tend to agree. Abortion will be the deciding issue. You can’t do something like overturn Roe v Wade and escape blowback.

On the economy, I agree there too. I think Biden was hoping inflation would be down to minimal already and rates would start coming down and prices would even off or drop a bit. But it looks like we’re still 6 months to a year away. Poor timing for him. Like you said, now he needs to make the case and articulate the real issues but a) I don’t know that he can do that either (hopefully his surrogates can help) and b) I don’t think a lot of people care to listen anyway.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,620]

4 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I tend to agree. Abortion will be the deciding issue. You can’t do something like overturn Roe v Wade and escape blowback.

On the economy, I agree there too. I think Biden was hoping inflation would be down to minimal already and rates would start coming down and prices would even off or drop a bit. But it looks like we’re still 6 months to a year away. Poor timing for him. Like you said, now he needs to make the case and articulate the real issues but a) I don’t know that he can do that either (hopefully his surrogates can help) and b) I don’t think a lot of people care to listen anyway.

Yeah, when people can't afford things how high do you think abortion is on the list?  Not very high.  The economy and people pocket books will ALWAYS and ultimately be #1.

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

7 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Yeah, when people can't afford things how high do you think abortion is on the list?  Not very high.  The economy and people pocket books will ALWAYS and ultimately be #1.

You're talking common sense and logic... Democrats don't work that way, they're mainly driven by emotion.

[Ron_Artest 765]

23 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Yeah, when people can't afford things how high do you think abortion is on the list?  Not very high.  The economy and people pocket books will ALWAYS and ultimately be #1.

The number of people that can't afford things is still relatively low and Trump has not made the case that he will make things better.  It's all perception right now.

[thegeneral 1,491]

8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

16 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Yeah, when people can't afford things how high do you think abortion is on the list?  Not very high.  The economy and people pocket books will ALWAYS and ultimately be #1.

You're talking common sense and logic... Democrats don't work that way, they're mainly driven by emotion

My take on these two points - cost of things and Dems being driven by emotion.

Things cost more…Trillions went out the door quickly in the COVID times and in some cases with almost no oversight. Both parties largely agreed, Trump was the Prez when much of this occurred, and yes Americans wanted this. We wanted no pain which is fine but eventually a price would be paid.

Additionally, the world opening back up caused issues with supply chain, money poured in from every direction, and then the war in Ukraine.

To this “emotional” comment I have seen a lot on this board. How is inflation entirely on Biden? It isn’t. It wouldn’t entirely be on a Republican prez in the same situation based on the confluence of events that led to it happening  To think otherwise I’d argue is an emotional response, a partisan response. If you want to say that’s politics all fine but that isn’t some unique thing to Dems. It’s a people thing. 

I don’t know what faith anyone has that Trump would be better on this issue. That again to me seems an emotional response.

[weepaws 2,497]

Has already been decided.  The team has their next one up.  

[Hardcore troubadour 12,864]

44 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d say it is a dead heat.

Biden has the advantage of the incumbency, though it’s a little muted by the fact that Trump has been president before.

Trump seems to have a decided advantage on many issues and people, for some reason I can’t fathom, think his presidency went better than Biden’s has.

It’s crazy to me that it’s even a question but I’d say, right now, it’s basically 50/50.

Feels like it will change before the election though. Don’t know if it’ll be these criminal trials or the debates or some kind of October surprise, or maybe some outside event like a global recession or a war, but it feels like this race will be different come November.

Can’t fathom it. Lol. 

[MDC 5,934]

It will be a tight race, but I think Trump’s appeal is pretty much at its peak now that he’s been out of the spotlight for a few years. I can’t imagine many people who weren’t going to vote for him anyway seeing him on the debate stage and thinking “Sign me up for 4 more years of that!” More likely he’ll say a lot of dumb shiit and boost Dem turnout. 

[weepaws 2,497]

It’s already a done deal, if no one voted, they would still show up with fake numbers.  

[Tree of Knowledge 892]

7 minutes ago, MDC said:

It will be a tight race, but I think Trump’s appeal is pretty much at its peak now that he’s been out of the spotlight for a few years. I can’t imagine many people who weren’t going to vote for him anyway seeing him on the debate stage and thinking “Sign me up for 4 more years of that!” More likely he’ll say a lot of dumb shiit and boost Dem turnout. 

No way his handlers let Biden debate.  

[MDC 5,934]

7 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

No way his handlers let Biden debate.  

He will. There’s no way he can win if he doesn’t. And I think the debates help him more than Trump.

[thegeneral 1,491]

8 minutes ago, Tree of Knowledge said:

No way his handlers let Biden debate.  

I just hope Donald shows up!

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

1 hour ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Yeah, when people can't afford things how high do you think abortion is on the list?  Not very high.  The economy and people pocket books will ALWAYS and ultimately be #1.

I agree with this. 
Now it doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump will win because there will be new voters who are going to vote primarily on the abortion issue- how many we don’t know. 

But I agree that what you wrote is true for most voters. 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

3 minutes ago, MDC said:

He will. There’s no way he can win if he doesn’t. And I think the debates help him more than Trump.

Ultimately both guys will show up for a debate. But there will be a lot of talk about not showing up between now and then.

What it really comes down to is that neither guy can afford the risk of being seen as the one who refused to debate. 

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

Can we also agree that Trump’s choice of VP, whoever that turns out to be, will neither help nor hurt his chances? People make too much of this, IMO. The only time it really mattered was Sarah Palin probably hurt McCain a little but he wasn’t going to win anyhow. 

[iam90sbaby 2,142]

Lefties will do anything to win, like creating a bullshit!t trial in the middle of election. Conservative, Inc won't win another election until we start playing dirty games too.

[thegeneral 1,491]

2 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Lefties will do anything to win, like creating a bullshit!t trial in the middle of election. Conservative, Inc won't win another election until we start playing dirty games too.

One of the Trump trials is about them playing dirty

[The Real timschochet 3,102]

Biden has a black problem. They’re not voting for Trump but they may not show up in the numbers that they did in 2020. 
 

In 2020 Biden won Georgia by a few thousand votes because Stacy Abrams basically pullled a miracle and got every black person in the entire state to vote. I don’t think she can pull that off again.