LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs

[supermike80 1,911]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Perhaps I exaggerated. It’s not 1920s Germany obviously. 5% per year is not something you want to see. 
But again I’m convinced it’s actually much higher because the rates listed don’t show how much lower prices would actually be if India allowed imports without charge. 

Damnit Tim.  So were you lying?  Why would you post that if it wasn't true?? GRRRRRRRRR

[RLLD 4,230]

3 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

As much as I can be an a-hole to Tim.....I'm not doing that here.   He said "Seriously? India has one of the highest inflation rates on the planet: "

Since I didn't know anything about India's inflation rate, I was curious.  So I looked.  And I see about 5% for the past 10 years or so.

Is 5% the highest on the planet?  Or one of the highest?  What am I missing?

I think the entire premise is flawed.  You cannot take the concept of tariffs and pretend its doing anything to change inflation, that is Problem A......the suggestion in and of itself is inane.

Now, it we implement tariffs then later in perhaps 9 months or so we can look back and attempt to gauge the impacts of tariffs on overall inflation.  Which would be minimal at best.  In fact, it could easily be hidden by simple tweaks in the energy market, which will have a more profound influence on inflation.  So its just silly.....honestly...

Its likely that some twit on CNN said this, and there are those who cannot think for themselves so they run with it

[Horseman 2,458]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Perhaps I exaggerated. It’s not 1920s Germany obviously. 5% per year is not something you want to see. 
But again I’m convinced it’s actually much higher because the rates listed don’t show how much lower prices would actually be if India allowed imports without charge. 

You're convinced the numbers are different just like you're convinced 1% drop is significant.  You create whatever you need to in your head to forcefit your world view.  Youre incapable of looking at anything objectively.  You're pathetical.  

[Hawkeye21 2,399]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html
 

Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

Did you do this same thing while Biden was President?

[supermike80 1,911]

This inflation/tariff correlation has me poking around.

Poland has an inflation rate of 5.3%, yet they follow the EU's CCT...and their average tariff was 2.03% across all products.

Sooo....again.....I'm missing the correlation here.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

5 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I think the entire premise is flawed.  You cannot take the concept of tariffs and pretend its doing anything to change inflation, that is Problem A......the suggestion in and of itself is inane.

Now, it we implement tariffs then later in perhaps 9 months or so we can look back and attempt to gauge the impacts of tariffs on overall inflation.  Which would be minimal at best.  In fact, it could easily be hidden by simple tweaks in the energy market, which will have a more profound influence on inflation.  So its just silly.....honestly...

Its likely that some twit on CNN said this, and there are those who cannot think for themselves so they run with it

This is completely wrong. 

[CaptainObvious1 368]

9 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Perhaps I exaggerated. It’s not 1920s Germany obviously. 5% per year is not something you want to see. 
But again I’m convinced it’s actually much higher because the rates listed don’t show how much lower prices would actually be if India allowed imports without charge. 

You lied. Again

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Did you do this same thing while Biden was President?

Yes. Those these tariffs are worse. 

[Hawkeye21 2,399]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Yes. Those these tariffs are worse. 

You would call out Biden every time the market dropped?  Seems like an odd thing to do when all the market has done is go up since Trump's first term.  A 1% drop is not something to worry about.

[easilyscan 925]

1 hour ago, CaptainObvious1 said:

Stock market is plunging?  Not with my accounts.

Same here. Large taxable account, 2 IRA's, 401'k & HSA 

https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEZRSXM

 

 

 

 

[RLLD 4,230]

12 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is completely wrong. 

No, it is spot on.  Pretending the issue of inflation is univariate is wrong, notably using tariffs as some source of inflation. Lets go over what is true.....shall we?

Ranked in order of influence

1. Supply and Demand – When demand for goods and services exceeds supply, prices rise, leading to inflation. and when supply exceeds demand, prices tend to fall.

2. Monetary Policy –  Put simply the money supply and interest rates. Lower interest rates and increased money supply can stimulate demand and lead to higher inflation. Please note what when they fight inflation.....they do not tweak tariffs....like....ever.....   no they tweak THIS... because this actually matters....

3. Fiscal Policy – Government spending and taxation influence inflation. Increased government spending or tax cuts can boost demand, pushing prices up.  Now if you want to pretend that tariffs are taxation instead of revenue generation at the expense of foreign nations then you will try to argue the tax angle here, you would be wrong, but you would likely at least try....

4. Cost-Push Factors – Rising costs of production, like wages and raw materials, but also oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and labor costs.

5. Wage Growth – If wages rise faster than productivity, businesses may pass these costs onto consumers through higher prices.

6. Expectations of Inflation – If businesses and consumers expect inflation to rise, they may increase prices and wages preemptively, creating a self-fulfilling cycle.

7. Exchange Rates – A weaker currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Conversely, a stronger currency can help keep inflation in check by lowering import costs.

8. Global Events – Geopolitical tensions, pandemics, and trade policies (like tariffs) can impact supply chains and production costs, influencing inflation.

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

1 hour ago, supermike80 said:

I am not totally understanding this.  On the chart I pulled up, just googling, India's inflation has been around 5% since 2014.   Are we saying this is out of control inflation?  And is the OP saying the reason for this 5% is solely cause of tariffs?   

I understood his point to be that over the last 20 years, tariffs are the reason India's inflation rate was terrible and projected to be worse over the next 10.  This chart told me the opposite of their inflation rate.  While not great, it has been trending downward the last 15 years with a tick upward during COVID.  

 

India has put tariffs on imports for over 125 years.  I have a hard time believing that they're all of a sudden going to cause the inflation rate to go back up again... especially since it's been declining for 15 years.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

18 minutes ago, RLLD said:

No, it is spot on.  Pretending the issue of inflation is univariate is wrong, notably using tariffs as some source of inflation. Lets go over what is true.....shall we?

Ranked in order of influence

1. Supply and Demand – When demand for goods and services exceeds supply, prices rise, leading to inflation. and when supply exceeds demand, prices tend to fall.

2. Monetary Policy –  Put simply the money supply and interest rates. Lower interest rates and increased money supply can stimulate demand and lead to higher inflation. Please note what when they fight inflation.....they do not tweak tariffs....like....ever.....   no they tweak THIS... because this actually matters....

3. Fiscal Policy – Government spending and taxation influence inflation. Increased government spending or tax cuts can boost demand, pushing prices up.  Now if you want to pretend that tariffs are taxation instead of revenue generation at the expense of foreign nations then you will try to argue the tax angle here, you would be wrong, but you would likely at least try....

4. Cost-Push Factors – Rising costs of production, like wages and raw materials, but also oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and labor costs.

5. Wage Growth – If wages rise faster than productivity, businesses may pass these costs onto consumers through higher prices.

6. Expectations of Inflation – If businesses and consumers expect inflation to rise, they may increase prices and wages preemptively, creating a self-fulfilling cycle.

7. Exchange Rates – A weaker currency makes imports more expensive, contributing to inflation. Conversely, a stronger currency can help keep inflation in check by lowering import costs.

8. Global Events – Geopolitical tensions, pandemics, and trade policies (like tariffs) can impact supply chains and production costs, influencing inflation.

 

 

Completely wrong. And it’s rather amazing coming from you, because you have argued for years that Biden’s spending had a direct effect on inflation which is was also completely wrong. Tariffs directly raise prices on the consumer. That is a DIRECT EFFECT. Any economist worth their salt will tell you the same. 
 

https://www.lordabbett.com/en-us/financial-advisor/insights/markets-and-economy/2025/addressing-investor-questions-on-tariffs-and-inflation.html

[CaptainObvious1 368]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I understood his point to be that over the last 20 years, tariffs are the reason India's inflation rate was terrible and projected to be worse over the next 10.  This chart told me the opposite of their inflation rate.  While not great, it has been trending downward the last 15 years with a tick upward during COVID.  

  

India has put tariffs on imports for over 125 years.  I have a hard time believing that they're all of a sudden going to cause the inflation rate to go back up again... especially since it's been declining for 15 years.

I don't think he expected anyone to fact check him here.  He's using an action he dislikes to come up with an outrageous conclusion and the two are not linked.

[RLLD 4,230]

4 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Completely wrong. And it’s rather amazing coming from you, because you have argued for years that Biden’s spending had a direct effect on inflation which is was also completely wrong. Tariffs directly raise prices on the consumer. That is a DIRECT EFFECT. Any economist worth their salt will tell you the same. 
 

https://www.lordabbett.com/en-us/financial-advisor/insights/markets-and-economy/2025/addressing-investor-questions-on-tariffs-and-inflation.html

You must be joking.  I don't believe you do not know all this.  I think you are pretending.  Even a high schooler understands these basic concepts.

Now, look, I enjoy our conversations....but if you are intent to pretend that basic monetary influences on inflation are no longer true, then we have nothing more to talk about here.....

[MLCKAA 574]

2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

And you’re a pathetic sick liar. I absolutely do NOt want this to happen. If you could promise me no tariffs in exchange for 20 more years of Trump I would make that trade. 

Really?  Is this hyperbole?  This sounds like tariffs are your #1 political issue.  In exchange for no tariffs you’d accept the current president remaining in office for 20 years.  This has to mean tariffs are your overall top issue, which makes you the only person I have ever “met” with this particular set of priorities.

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

24 minutes ago, RLLD said:

You must be joking.  I don't believe you do not know all this.  I think you are pretending.  Even a high schooler understands these basic concepts.

Now, look, I enjoy our conversations....but if you are intent to pretend that basic monetary influences on inflation are no longer true, then we have nothing more to talk about here.....

If you don’t understand that tariffs are a direct cause of inflation then you don’t understand much about economics, no offense. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

5 minutes ago, MLCKAA said:

Really?  Is this hyperbole?  This sounds like tariffs are your #1 political issue.  In exchange for no tariffs you’d accept the current president remaining in office for 20 years.  This has to mean tariffs are your overall top issue, which makes you the only person I have ever “met” with this particular set of priorities.

Free trade leads to economic prosperity. Economic prosperity solves most problems. I think Trump is terrible and a would be dictator, but I still trust our guardrails to prevent that from happening. So yeah 20 years of almost guaranteed economic prosperity would be a worthwhile trade. 

[Gepetto 1,368]

Trump and/or Elon recently stated there goal in a multitude of changes they are making is to get inflation under control.

[MLCKAA 574]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Free trade leads to economic prosperity. Economic prosperity solves most problems. I think Trump is terrible and a would be dictator, but I still trust our guardrails to prevent that from happening. So yeah 20 years of almost guaranteed economic prosperity would be a worthwhile trade. 

The tariffs don’t almost guarantee economic doom and reversing them would not almost guarantee economic prosperity.  You’re smart, so you know this— the unforeseeable variables of the global socioeconomic fabric and the influence of future technological advances make it impossible to do anything better than predictive modeling.  And predictive modeling has been slapped in the face by unforeseeable variables time and again.

[jbycho 754]

3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html
 

Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

[Horseman 2,458]

20 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Free trade leads to economic prosperity. Economic prosperity solves most problems. I think Trump is terrible and a would be dictator, but I still trust our guardrails to prevent that from happening. So yeah 20 years of almost guaranteed economic prosperity would be a worthwhile trade. 

 Skyscreamer

Whose batting near 000 with his predictions.  Biggest joke on the forum. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

15 minutes ago, Horseman said:

 Skyscreamer

Whose batting near 000 with his predictions.  Biggest joke on the forum. 

And yet you read and comment on nearly every one of my posts. You have Tim Derangement Syndrome. 

[Horseman 2,458]

20 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

And yet you read and comment on nearly every one of my posts. You have Tim Derangement Syndrome. 

Another lie. Another fabrication in your brain to forcefit your worldview.  Nobody has time for that.  

[shadrap 228]

4 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/investing/us-stocks-walmart-outlook/index.html
 

Get ready for hard times ahead. Some of us tried to warn you that these tariffs were going to cause a lot of pain and ugliness. And it’s only just beginning…

he has been President for a month.

never seen anything like this in my lifetime as far as uncovering waste, fraud, & abuse of our money.  uncovering Billions & the left is going nuts because-------------------------they are uncovering Billions in waste & fraud.    OUR money.  Now we are seeing just how corrupt our elected officials are & the money being funneled to them.

Whatever he is doing keep it up.   let the chips fall.

[weepaws 3,192]

1 hour ago, shadrap said:

he has been President for a month.

never seen anything like this in my lifetime as far as uncovering waste, fraud, & abuse of our money.  uncovering Billions & the left is going nuts because-------------------------they are uncovering Billions in waste & fraud.    OUR money.  Now we are seeing just how corrupt our elected officials are & the money being funneled to them.

Whatever he is doing keep it up.   let the chips fall.

What happen to that 4.7 trillion?  Mmm.  Pocket change for the trump, and musk.   Trump did call Epstein friend.  

[jonmx 2,429]

4 hours ago, Horseman said:

You're convinced the numbers are different just like you're convinced 1% drop is significant.  You create whatever you need to in your head to forcefit your world view.  Youre incapable of looking at anything objectively.  You're pathetical.  

The S&P 500 was at all-time highs yesterday.....and then it crashed!!!!  0.61 peecent!!!!  Oh no!!!!!

Fuking morons. 

[Tebok 442]

9 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The S&P 500 was at all-time highs yesterday.....and then it crashed!!!!  0.61 peecent!!!!  Oh no!!!!!

Fuking morons. 

No it wasn't. Go look at a Dow graph, Francis Fukin Stupid.

[Alias Detective 1,401]

I remember when buying from small businesses selling made in the USA goods was popular.  

[jonmx 2,429]

1 minute ago, Tebok said:

No it wasn't. Go look at a Dow graph, Francis Fukin Stupid.

Again, you are a fuking moron who can't read and make strawman arguments.  Go fuk yourself. 

[Tebok 442]

11 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Again, you are a fuking moron who can't read and make strawman arguments.  Go fuk yourself. 

S&P 500.

Slobbering poodleman.

 

[jbycho 754]

48 minutes ago, Tebok said:

S&P 500.

Slobbering poodleman.

 

Sorry you are broke Rusty..

 

That must suck.

[RLLD 4,230]

14 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

If you don’t understand that tariffs are a direct cause of inflation then you don’t understand much about economics, no offense. 

Because.....tariffs are NOT.....a direct cause of inflation......   the things I listed ARE direct causes of inflation

This is important.   When someone on CNN or in government tries to sell you that tariffs have an outsized influence on inflation, they are trying to manipulate you, and you need to know that.

Tell you what, show me any example in history where tariffs were adjusted to influence inflation, just one......

[Cloaca du jour 2,150]

I have to ask...other than the egg prices at whole foods or in liberal sh1thole cities...I haven't noticed any increase in grocery prices.  Gas still at 2.80gal.  Eggs regular size are under 3.

.I really think this is all liberal make believe and media control.

I hear the screams but I am not seeing it. Usually from the left.

Just bought a 10lb of ground chuck way better flavor than ground beef...30 dollars from local butcher.

 

 

[RLLD 4,230]

7 minutes ago, Cloaca du jour said:

I have to ask...other than the egg prices at whole foods or in liberal sh1thole cities...I haven't noticed any increase in grocery prices.  Gas still at 2.80gal.  Eggs regular size are under 3.

.I really think this is all liberal make believe and media control.

I hear the screams but I am not seeing it. Usually from the left.

Just bought a 10lb of ground chuck way better flavor than ground beef...30 dollars from local butcher.

 

 

Moreover, liberals spent the last few years insisting the economy was just fine......while we already had THOSE prices in play.....

Now, all the sudden, they apparently see prices.....and care.....  like magic.....

[Horseman 2,458]

OMG it's down another 0.8%!  It's HAPPENING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TrailGuy 554]

It's not happening.

[TrailGuy 554]

35 minutes ago, Cloaca du jour said:

Just bought a 10lb of ground chuck way better flavor than ground beef...30 dollars from local butcher.

 

 

chuck isn't beef? 

[Horseman 2,458]

Just now, TrailGuy said:

It's not happening.

If you weren't a pretend CFO you'd be dishing out some advice and analysis.  

[Horseman 2,458]

6 minutes ago, TrailGuy said:

chuck isn't beef? 

Of course it is dumbasss.  He didn't say that and nobody but an idiot would think otherwise.  He was referring to what we call the cut.

Ground chuck is a specific cut of beef from the chuck roast versus ground beef that come from all different parts.  Ground chuck has more flavor and usually more fat.  Discerning chiefs may choose ground chuck over ground beef usually at a higher price point.  You wouldn't know because you're poor and think it's all hamburger.