It is retro... that was last year. Expect WRs to resume the long term trend* as DBs now have even less chance to break up a pass with the new helmet rule.
*Assuming a ton of QBs don't get hurt again like last year of course. Think about who was throwing passes in GB, IND, Hou, Miami, Ariz, etc.
No one should actually be taking Fournette at 2 in a PPR. I think TJ Yeldon should get a little more credit.
Obviously if you love him this much and you're snake picking at the other end...
How many targets are you giving P.Garcon?!
If Demaryius is undervalued based on targets... well, there's no proof yet that Jimmy G is going to throw (well) down the field (presumably to Goodwin).
I've said this every year for as long as I remember. I consider my Big Board to be a value board. I value Fournette at #2 overall. Does that mean I'll take him there? It depends. I so infrequently pick in the top of the draft that I would probably go Zeke or DJ so I can spread my shares around. If I pick at No. 9 or later (as I usually do), I should get plenty of Fournette shares. If I project one less touchdown for him, he drops behind AB and is ranked sixth. The margin that separates most of the first round is very small.
The problem with most fantasy draft critics (not calling you one, just speaking in general terms) is readers want to see something different than the usual suspects in the first round. Yet, when one of us dares break out of the groupthink that seems to dominate this industry, we must be off our rocker. I can almost assure you that Gurley, Bell, Zeke and Johnson will not be in the RB1-RB4 spots when the season is over. Do you know how many people said Gurley wasn't worth a second-round pick last year? Just because ADP or the industry suggests a player shouldn't be able to break into the top four RBs doesn't mean he can't or won't.
Two years ago, I ranked Zeke as the RB2 and No. 6 player overall. That worked out well. Last year, I ranked Hunt as the RB9 on my last Big Board (he ended up higher than that on my personal rankings after submitting my final BB article) and that worked out well. This year, my analysis is pointing me in the direction of Fournette. (Do I get 'em wrong from time to time? Sure I do. Everyone does.) Outside of the ankle concerns, it's hard to make a legitimate complaint about him that he or the team hasn't fixed/improved this offseason.
I don't dislike or disrespect Yeldon. I didn't think the Jags should have drafted Fournette two springs ago b/c of the respect I had for him and thought the issues were more line-related than Yeldon's shortcomings. But that wasn't my call. To your point about Yeldon getting more respect, he saw eight snaps or fewer in three of the Jags' final five games (when everyone knew Fournette was hurt). In Yeldon's 10 games last season, he saw an average of 7.6 touches in an offense that averaged 35 RB touches. Moving on ...
I have Garcon at 94 targets at the moment in part b/c I'd like to hear something more definitive regarding his neck injury and in part b/c Goodwin/Kittle are coming on. (Those two weren't key players before Jimmy G arrived. Goodwin is more than just a deep threat. I don't understand why you are bringing D. Thomas into the conversation. Six straight years of 140 targets and has (or should have) a capable quarterback throwing him the ball this year. What's not to like about that?
One thing I will agree with: while the quality of RB is as good as it's been in years for fantasy, receiver production nosedived last year. Owners need to take advantage of a likely rebound at the position overall. With backs like Guice and Collins potentially there at the 3-4 turn, I can totally get on board with an owner going WR-WR in Rounds 1 and 2.