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#1 Mike FF Today

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:47 AM

OK, we're going to start rolling these out with version 1.0. Standard coming later this week, and Half-pt PPR coming next week.

 

Top 150 PPR Leagues - 8/7/18

Top 150 Half-Point PPR - 8/12/18

Top 150 Non-PPR - 8/12/18

 

High Stakes League - The Fantasy Championship - 8/14/18

High Stakes League - The FFPC - 8/16/18
 


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#2 listen2me 23

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:07 AM

I seem to like JuJu more than most. I would easily take him over Sammy, Sanders, or Crabtree.

#3 jrokh

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:13 AM

This is great, thanks so much for doing this. My only criticism at first glance is failing to mention Fournette's recent Injury history going back to LSU and continuing in his rookie year with jax where he always seems to miss a few games. Maybe the weight loss helps in that regard, but with the second overall pick its still a little risky for conservative tastes. Good food for thought though, thanks again.



#4 seafoam1

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:20 AM

I seem to like JuJu more than most. I would easily take him over Sammy, Sanders, or Crabtree.


I'm with you on this one.

#5 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:23 AM

Everyone please follow the Gurus rankings for Tyreek Hill

#6 Mike FF Today

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:36 AM

Everyone please follow the Gurus rankings for Tyreek Hill

 

I was going to mention Watkins over Hill in his rankings. I've been struggling with Hill in my own rankings and don't really like the fact that I have as the WR11. Watkins propensity for nagging injuries is probably the deciding factor for keeping him below Hill on the team, but I'm not going to be surprised if Doug's rankings of the two end up playing out as planned by season's end.


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#7 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:51 AM

 
I was going to mention Watkins over Hill in his rankings. I've been struggling with Hill in my own rankings and don't really like the fact that I have as the WR11. Watkins propensity for nagging injuries is probably the deciding factor for keeping him below Hill on the team, but I'm not going to be surprised if Doug's rankings of the two end up playing out as planned by season's end.


I see a huge difference in their talent with Hill being a lot more Versitile and dynamic. The offense can be designed around him. Watkins is more of a one trick guy, and he hasn't shown me he isn't all that good at that trick

#8 Brutal Brutus

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:09 AM

Is there any easy way to see why certain players are ranked higher or lower by site experts?



#9 listen2me 23

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:10 AM

I see a huge difference in their talent with Hill being a lot more Versitile and dynamic. The offense can be designed around him. Watkins is more of a one trick guy, and he hasn't shown me he isn't all that good at that trick


I agree that Hill is more versitile. Pretty obvious there. But Watkins is highly skilled. He just does not stay healthy. Last year he was hardly used. Basically just a deep threat.

My bigger problem is chances. I mean what are people predicting for Mahomes this year? I mean with Kelce catching 80 balls. Hunt 50 some. A lot of running by Hunt. How many more chances do Sammy and Hill have to split up? Mahomes better go for 4500 and 30 TDs in his first year of starting to justify where all these guys are ranked.

#10 Brutal Brutus

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:15 AM

I agree that Hill is more versitile. Pretty obvious there. But Watkins is highly skilled. He just does not stay healthy. Last year he was hardly used. Basically just a deep threat.

My bigger problem is chances. I mean what are people predicting for Mahomes this year? I mean with Kelce catching 80 balls. Hunt 50 some. A lot of running by Hunt. How many more chances do Sammy and Hill have to split up? Mahomes better go for 4500 and 30 TDs in his first year of starting to justify where all these guys are ranked.

My biggest fear is that they each alternate weeks of boom and bust weeks. It makes them hard to sit, but starting them will hurt you just as often as they help you. 



#11 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:20 AM

This is great, thanks so much for doing this. My only criticism at first glance is failing to mention Fournette's recent Injury history going back to LSU and continuing in his rookie year with jax where he always seems to miss a few games. Maybe the weight loss helps in that regard, but with the second overall pick its still a little risky for conservative tastes. Good food for thought though, thanks again.

 

It was not my intention to conveniently leave out Fournette's injury history. I occasionally take some liberties and assume the people who read my articles know the history of one of the game's highest-profile players. It is/was not lost on me that he's had ankle issues. The drop in weight should help that, so I guess while I should have probably made that point abundantly clear in the write-up, that was part of my rationale.



#12 listen2me 23

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:21 AM

My biggest fear is that they each alternate weeks of boom and bust weeks. It makes them hard to sit, but starting them will hurt you just as often as they help you. 


Yes exactly. Plus if all stay healthy none shoukd have real great years. Maybe Hunt. But even with Hunt Kelce and Tyreek it seemed like there was only so much to go around. Now add in Sammy.

#13 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:24 AM

My biggest fear is that they each alternate weeks of boom and bust weeks. It makes them hard to sit, but starting them will hurt you just as often as they help you. 

 

Bingo. I think their final numbers will warrant them being fifth-round values, but I'm probably not going to go out of my way to make sure I get either WR.

 

My bigger problem is chances. I mean what are people predicting for Mahomes this year? I mean with Kelce catching 80 balls. Hunt 50 some. A lot of running by Hunt. How many more chances do Sammy and Hill have to split up? Mahomes better go for 4500 and 30 TDs in his first year of starting to justify where all these guys are ranked.

 

I was very happy to see my algorithm put Mahomes as the QB13. I can see a lot of shootouts for KC this year and a high number of interceptions for Mahomes. But I think he's going to be able to light it up when the opportunity presents itself.



#14 DrG

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 01:01 PM

Last year I couldnt tell if the Rams were a) using Watkins as a decoy, B) limiting his wear and tear, c) if Goff just wasnt consistently using the whole field.

I think the guy who lines up on the right (Hill?) probably sees more targets and those of us in return yard leagues Hope Hill keeps return duties.

#15 lesjroza

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 02:34 PM

Appreciate you sharing your (hard, quality) work as always Doug!

 

Admittedly I haven't done the same level of microscopic prognostication but just looking at the top portion of the board AND taking more of a forest level view than tree...................... if you were making a market I'd be selling you McCaffrey and Mckinnon and buying Hilton and Gronk FWIW.



#16 Brutal Brutus

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 02:39 PM

Appreciate you sharing your (hard, quality) work as always Doug!

 

Admittedly I haven't done the same level of microscopic prognostication but just looking at the top portion of the board AND taking more of a forest level view than tree...................... if you were making a market I'd be selling you McCaffrey and Mckinnon and buying Hilton and Gronk FWIW.

I'll wait for the standard rankings to come before I gripe about McCaffery and Mckinnon. I anticipate those two having the biggest drop in values from PPR to standard. 



#17 lesjroza

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 02:44 PM

I'll wait for the standard rankings to come before I gripe about McCaffery and Mckinnon. I anticipate those two having the biggest drop in values from PPR to standard. 

 

No doubt! My own comments fully considered this was the PPR version though, FWIW.



#18 bobby heenan

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 02:57 PM

curious on your opinion here.....would appear you dont see anyone seperating themselves in the denver rb race......if someone does they could have a nice little offense and they have a pretty nice run schedule



#19 bobby heenan

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 03:00 PM

 

It was not my intention to conveniently leave out Fournette's injury history. I occasionally take some liberties and assume the people who read my articles know the history of one of the game's highest-profile players. It is/was not lost on me that he's had ankle issues. The drop in weight should help that, so I guess while I should have probably made that point abundantly clear in the write-up, that was part of my rationale.

i dont have a major opinion on fournette either way...but i dont think dropping a few pounds is going to alleviate an ankle issue....ankles are funny...once you mess one up good its easy to reaggrevate......i like fournette more at the end of the 1st round......

 

to be honest if i was picking 12-13 or 11-14...i might to mike thomas and davante if i could.....i know there will prob be slim picking left when it comes back to rb but im willing to sort through it



#20 Matt Mueller

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 05:56 PM

Anything could happen but I have a tough time taking a guy who averaged 3.9 YPC #2 overall but I guess the main play here is that if I was Doug I'd be trying to trade down to the late 1st and select Fournette and a WR or RB-RB.

 

 

Doug do you think the rushing efficiency last year was due to his injury and that he might rebound there?

 

He was out from week 6-week 10 and his rushing YPC per game the rest of the way was

 

1.9 YPC 

4.0 YPC

2.1 YPC

2.9 YPC

4.2 YPC

2.7 YPC

3.6 YPC

 

Playoffs

 

2.7 YPC

4.4 YPC

3.3 YPC

 

 

They really have no one else at RB but if they had an elite 3rd down back I'd be looking to lighten Fornette's workload a touch. 

 

 

All in all he's among the safest volume plays out there on a great defensive team.   I do worry about his per play efficiency though. 



#21 tanatastic

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 06:03 PM

This assumes Bell has a contract situation? Hes borderline cheating in ppr if he plays and is healthy. Fournette could have a huge season rushing sure but he isnt really a special receiver. Kamara was part time and easily surpassed him by almost 100 points. Standard if you want to talk too 6 fine, but ppr he is flat out undraftable in the top 5.

Davonte could have a big season as Rodgers top target, I have no problems with his ranking. In ppr, any wr can make a name and be a top 3 guy if he gets the volume.

#22 Matt Mueller

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 06:46 PM

Kamara is gonna be interesting this season.   Whether he can keep it up or folds.

 

He produced nearly the same PPR point total as Bell on like 200 less carries.

 

 

 

That screams risk in a certain sense but it also screams upside in that his efficiency can take a hit if he gets a volume boost.

 

Dome, Brees, lots of short passes.    Safe PPR play IMO 



#23 Mike FF Today

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 07:37 PM

Is there any easy way to see why certain players are ranked higher or lower by site experts?

 

Not quite following this. Doug provided a lot of commentary below his rankings...?


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#24 Brutal Brutus

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:10 PM

 
Not quite following this. Doug provided a lot of commentary below his rankings...?

I should havr specified, I'm not talking about the big board specifically. I'm talking about how the site projections and rankings differ. I understand that it's done by different people, but I think it would be helpful if the player profile would give a rational from a site expert that is high on the player and one from an expert that's fairly low.

Marlon Mack is an example. Really high on the rankings but his blurb talks about why it'll be a rbbc and it's a steep price. Just curious as one guy thinks he's going to out perform his adp and another thinks his price is high.

#25 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:40 PM

I should havr specified, I'm not talking about the big board specifically. I'm talking about how the site projections and rankings differ. I understand that it's done by different people, but I think it would be helpful if the player profile would give a rational from a site expert that is high on the player and one from an expert that's fairly low.

Marlon Mack is an example. Really high on the rankings but his blurb talks about why it'll be a rbbc and it's a steep price. Just curious as one guy thinks he's going to out perform his adp and another thinks his price is high.

 

If I understand what you are asking, Fantasy Pros is a good site for this. I'll post my rankings there sometime in the next few days if time allows.



#26 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:45 PM

i dont have a major opinion on fournette either way...but i dont think dropping a few pounds is going to alleviate an ankle issue....ankles are funny...once you mess one up good its easy to reaggrevate......i like fournette more at the end of the 1st round......

 

to be honest if i was picking 12-13 or 11-14...i might to mike thomas and davante if i could.....i know there will prob be slim picking left when it comes back to rb but im willing to sort through it

 

I'm obviously not doing a great job of explaining myself. I'm not implying Fournette's extra weight was the cause of his ankle injuries, but rather it can't hurt him to break more runs and be more durable. As a veteran of many sprained ankles in my teens and 20s, I know what you are saying. However, I don't see his ankles being a chronic issue - at least not yet.



#27 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:48 PM

curious on your opinion here.....would appear you dont see anyone seperating themselves in the denver rb race......if someone does they could have a nice little offense and they have a pretty nice run schedule

 

There's no doubt in my mind Freeman is the most talented back on the team. However, I'm going to keep an open mind (and trust what the Denver coaches are saying about a committee) until I see some elements of this "new offense" the Broncos are talking about. More outside runs and swing passes to the running back may benefit Booker, whereas a more traditional offense would favor Freeman. Then, you have to figure in my eternal dislike for Bill Musgrave. Last but not least, the last time I saw Freeman, he was not the same runner he was prior to his injury in early 2016.



#28 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:07 PM

I seem to like JuJu more than most. I would easily take him over Sammy, Sanders, or Crabtree.

 

I'll be the first to admit JuJu is a tough one for me to rank/score. The fact he won't receive extra defensive attention any time AB is in the game makes him a high-upside fantasy option. But he's also the third priority in that passing game, plus I have substantial doubts the new OC in Pittsburgh is going to make feeding JuJu a priority when he's just getting his feet wet as a play-caller. Add in the likelihood James Washington does more for the offense than Martavis Bryant did last year, and there's enough reason to believe JuJu doesn't see a huge spike in production.



#29 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:20 PM

Anything could happen but I have a tough time taking a guy who averaged 3.9 YPC #2 overall but I guess the main play here is that if I was Doug I'd be trying to trade down to the late 1st and select Fournette and a WR or RB-RB.

 

 

Doug do you think the rushing efficiency last year was due to his injury and that he might rebound there?

 

He was out from week 6-week 10 and his rushing YPC per game the rest of the way was

 

1.9 YPC 

4.0 YPC

2.1 YPC

2.9 YPC

4.2 YPC

2.7 YPC

3.6 YPC

 

Playoffs

 

2.7 YPC

4.4 YPC

3.3 YPC

 

 

They really have no one else at RB but if they had an elite 3rd down back I'd be looking to lighten Fornette's workload a touch. 

 

 

All in all he's among the safest volume plays out there on a great defensive team.   I do worry about his per play efficiency though. 

 

I think the ankle injury had A LOT to do with his poor rushing efficiency. (Folks, please don't cite his pre-injury versus post-injury YPC here because there's more to it than that.)
 
Critics are going to say he caught 36 passes last year and wasn't/isn't a factor in the passing game. He played 13 games and had 48 targets, meaning he was on pace for 59 targets in a year in which he was hobbled for half of it. And I know folks aren't going to like hearing it and will disagree, but how much different is Fournette's situation this year than Elliott's? Zeke has a better o-line (although the Jags improved theirs), while Fournette should be running with positive game script all season long. I think both are 350-touch backs with 12-15 TD upside.


#30 DrG

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:56 PM

Yes this will seem almost retro but I see this as Year of the Running Back according to all astronomical charts.

#31 The Football Guru

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:21 PM

Yes this will seem almost retro but I see this as Year of the Running Back according to all astronomical charts.

 

I'm definitely trying to keep an open mind. As much of a RB-RB drafter as I used to be when I first started, I've grown to appreciate going RB-WR as time has passed b/c it keeps your options open longer and doesn't lock you into a position over the next 2-3 rounds. With that said, if I get to start a draft with Fournette-Cook (at the turn) or Gurley-Howard (if I'm picking in the top two, which never happens), it will be hard to pass up.

 

To your point, though ... it's nice to be able to analyze a draft again and not feel like I'm reaching for a RB at the turn. Takes me back a few years  :pointstosky:



#32 Spec7ral

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Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:46 PM

Doug you are an absolute gem and the Big Board is the best thing I read every year, even tho I haven't used it in practice for a while because DYNASTY. Thanks for providing all the writing along with it, your articles are thoughtful and fun to read.

P.S. Jamaal Williams is the back to own in Gb tho and Cain will challenge barkley for ROY. #BiasedPredictions
#klyrslf

#33 redsrback

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 05:52 AM

I see the amount of time and thought you put in, nice job Doug.



#34 listen2me 23

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 06:27 AM

 
I'll be the first to admit JuJu is a tough one for me to rank/score. The fact he won't receive extra defensive attention any time AB is in the game makes him a high-upside fantasy option. But he's also the third priority in that passing game, plus I have substantial doubts the new OC in Pittsburgh is going to make feeding JuJu a priority when he's just getting his feet wet as a play-caller. Add in the likelihood James Washington does more for the offense than Martavis Bryant did last year, and there's enough reason to believe JuJu doesn't see a huge spike in production.

Meh. The OC stuff is pure speculation. JuJu had some low snap counts early before they knew he was ready for a bigger role. JuJu had elite games as the 3rd option last year. Very elite games.

Sammy may be the 4th option with Mahomes at QB.

Sanders is getting old and Sutton may push him by mid year. With Keenum throwing the ball.

Crabtree is a 10-11 ypr guy. He relies on catches and TDs. And now he has Flacco throwing him the ball. Less volume and less TD chances shapes up for a 70-750-6 season.

JuJu had better top games than all of thrm last year as a 20 year old rookie who didnt get a ton of looks early. Im not very high on James Washington. He basically a smaller slower Matavis. One trick pony who will just run go routes.

#35 thePRO

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 11:56 AM

Kamara at 17 seems crazy. I really don't want the 6th-7th pick. Im unsure about Kamara, Barkley, and whoever is at that spot. Do I just grab Fournette or Hopkins instead? Yea, tough spot.

Wilson

Elliott, Forte

Montgomery, Powell, McFadden

Brown, Parker

Green, D. Jackson

Matthews

Walker

Patriots DST

Vinatieri


#36 bobby heenan

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:54 PM

 

I'm obviously not doing a great job of explaining myself. I'm not implying Fournette's extra weight was the cause of his ankle injuries, but rather it can't hurt him to break more runs and be more durable. As a veteran of many sprained ankles in my teens and 20s, I know what you are saying. However, I don't see his ankles being a chronic issue - at least not yet.

he does have a nice schedule vs the run(have it rated as one of the top 2 in the league with denvers)...and a team that is geared toward the run...nice addition of norwell to an improving line too....def some factors working in fournettes favor



#37 SpenceToons

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 08:14 PM


... and Cain will challenge Barkley for ROY. #BiasedPredictions

 

That's such a strong statement that I thought you might have a tidbit or two beyond just the fact he's had positive blurb flow lately.

 

Make a quick case for Cain...



#38 Quickolas1

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 08:32 PM

Yes this will seem almost retro but I see this as Year of the Running Back according to all astronomical charts.


It is retro... that was last year. Expect WRs to resume the long term trend* as DBs now have even less chance to break up a pass with the new helmet rule.

*Assuming a ton of QBs don't get hurt again like last year of course. Think about who was throwing passes in GB, IND, Hou, Miami, Ariz, etc.

No one should actually be taking Fournette at 2 in a PPR. I think TJ Yeldon should get a little more credit.
Obviously if you love him this much and you're snake picking at the other end...

How many targets are you giving P.Garcon?!
If Demaryius is undervalued based on targets... well, there's no proof yet that Jimmy G is going to throw (well) down the field (presumably to Goodwin).

#39 thePRO

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 09:02 PM

Going to do one of my free leagues and draft based solely on this information. Should be fun!

 

Just did a mock draft with this board - PPR Flex 9th Spot

 

1) Fournette

2) Adams

3) Howard (board said to pick Mixon; went Howard)

4) Fitzgerald

5) Robinson

6) Crowell (Wentz, Cousins, Brees, Cam still available; waited until next round)

7) Cousins (the other 3 were picked early in round 7)

8) Dion Lewis

9) Crowder

10) Burton

11) Parker

12) Eagles DST

13) Chris Carson

14) Crosby

 

Solid picks. Everyone took the mock seriously. Fournette and Howard is a solid 1-2 punch. I feel like my WR's are a little weak, but Adams should have a big year.

 

I think I would flex Dion Lewis the most...even over Crowell and Robinson. Lewis should be a PPR gem and was great value in the 8th round. Crowder is a nice pick in the 9th round. Big board had him at #59 overall.

 

Half of this may not be reasonable when it comes to actual draft day in a few weeks when people move up and down. Just thought it would be fun. Carson and Parker probably won't fall that late. Same with Crowder.


Wilson

Elliott, Forte

Montgomery, Powell, McFadden

Brown, Parker

Green, D. Jackson

Matthews

Walker

Patriots DST

Vinatieri


#40 The Football Guru

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:16 PM

It is retro... that was last year. Expect WRs to resume the long term trend* as DBs now have even less chance to break up a pass with the new helmet rule.

*Assuming a ton of QBs don't get hurt again like last year of course. Think about who was throwing passes in GB, IND, Hou, Miami, Ariz, etc.

No one should actually be taking Fournette at 2 in a PPR. I think TJ Yeldon should get a little more credit.
Obviously if you love him this much and you're snake picking at the other end...

How many targets are you giving P.Garcon?!
If Demaryius is undervalued based on targets... well, there's no proof yet that Jimmy G is going to throw (well) down the field (presumably to Goodwin).

 

I've said this every year for as long as I remember. I consider my Big Board to be a value board. I value Fournette at #2 overall. Does that mean I'll take him there? It depends. I so infrequently pick in the top of the draft that I would probably go Zeke or DJ so I can spread my shares around. If I pick at No. 9 or later (as I usually do), I should get plenty of Fournette shares. If I project one less touchdown for him, he drops behind AB and is ranked sixth. The margin that separates most of the first round is very small.

 

The problem with most fantasy draft critics (not calling you one, just speaking in general terms) is readers want to see something different than the usual suspects in the first round. Yet, when one of us dares break out of the groupthink that seems to dominate this industry, we must be off our rocker. I can almost assure you that Gurley, Bell, Zeke and Johnson will not be in the RB1-RB4 spots when the season is over. Do you know how many people said Gurley wasn't worth a second-round pick last year? Just because ADP or the industry suggests a player shouldn't be able to break into the top four RBs doesn't mean he can't or won't.

 

Two years ago, I ranked Zeke as the RB2 and No. 6 player overall. That worked out well. Last year, I ranked Hunt as the RB9 on my last Big Board (he ended up higher than that on my personal rankings after submitting my final BB article) and that worked out well. This year, my analysis is pointing me in the direction of Fournette. (Do I get 'em wrong from time to time? Sure I do. Everyone does.) Outside of the ankle concerns, it's hard to make a legitimate complaint about him that he or the team hasn't fixed/improved this offseason.

 

I don't dislike or disrespect Yeldon. I didn't think the Jags should have drafted Fournette two springs ago b/c of the respect I had for him and thought the issues were more line-related than Yeldon's shortcomings. But that wasn't my call. To your point about Yeldon getting more respect, he saw eight snaps or fewer in three of the Jags' final five games (when everyone knew Fournette was hurt). In Yeldon's 10 games last season, he saw an average of 7.6 touches in an offense that averaged 35 RB touches. Moving on ...

 

I have Garcon at 94 targets at the moment in part b/c I'd like to hear something more definitive regarding his neck injury and in part b/c Goodwin/Kittle are coming on. (Those two weren't key players before Jimmy G arrived. Goodwin is more than just a deep threat. I don't understand why you are bringing D. Thomas into the conversation. Six straight years of 140 targets and has (or should have) a capable quarterback throwing him the ball this year. What's not to like about that?

 

One thing I will agree with: while the quality of RB is as good as it's been in years for fantasy, receiver production nosedived last year. Owners need to take advantage of a likely rebound at the position overall. With backs like Guice and Collins potentially there at the 3-4 turn, I can totally get on board with an owner going WR-WR in Rounds 1 and 2.