Busts of 2015 by position now the regular season is over

[track 1 16]

Qb - luck

 

Rb - lacy

 

Wr - aj green

 

Te - kelce

[Redstone 0]

The 1st round RB list is long. Marshawn did nothing for me this year

[Vikings4ever 496]

Dez? Jimmy Graham?

[erikthebassist 41]

RB: Lacy, Anderson

WR: Cobb, Green

TE: Graham

QB: Manning, Wilson, Luck

[brotherbock 349]

Just peeking back at FFT's preseason cheatsheets, which were pretty standard compared to other sites.

 

QB

 

Here's the top seven picks, in order. The definite non-bust candidates are bolded.

Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, Manning, Ryan, Ben, Stafford.

 

You can make convincing cases for Wilson and Stafford turning it around late, and Rodgers for being, if not as amazing as he has been in other years, at least a QB1. Luck only had two bad games when he wasn't hurt in terms of FF points. Manning only had two decent games before he got hurt. If you like the Bust label to not include injuries at all, it would have to be Ryan, I think. Otherwise, it's Manning by a mile.

 

 

RB

 

Top ten from FFT's cheatsheet. Definite non-busts bolded.

AD, Lynch, Charles, Lacy, Bell, Murray, CJ, Forte, Forsett, Hill

 

CJ is maybe turning it on for the playoffs, wait and see. Same for Hill (who's still been startable as an RB3, I think). Charles, Bell, Forsett were doing varying degrees of okay to great before injury. That leaves Lynch, Lacy, and Murray. Lynch and Lacy have had arguable one or two good games a piece. Murray has at least had 3 or 4. Lynch got hurt, making Lacy the winner there.

 

 

WR

 

OBJ, Brown, DT, Dez, Julio, AJ, Calvin, Cobb, Hopkins, Jeffrey.

 

AJ has had four solid games now, Cobb really only one. Jeffrey three even with being hurt. DT hasn't had a fantastic game, but 7 decent ones. Dez has had only one good game all year. Injury-free bust would have to be Cobb, with Dez being the injury-inclusive candidate.

 

 

TE

 

Gronk, Graham, Olson, Kelce, Bennett, Witten, Walker, Fleener, Vernon, Daniels

 

So, first...those are messed up rankings. I'm excluding Witten from bust candidacy not because he's been good, but because he never belonged anywhere near the top ten preseason TEs. Ditto for Fleener and Vernon, IMO. Daniels isn't good, but I know people thought 'Peyton's TE', so he stays on the list. Okay. Graham had three decent games, maybe four, ditto for Kelce and Bennett. Daniels has lived up to #10-ish, I guess. So of Graham, Kelce, and Bennett, I'd say Graham more fully flopped on expectations.

 

The bigger crime in those TE cheatsheet rankings is Eifert being all the way down at 15, below Kyle AnnualDissapointment Rudolph and Jordan NoI'mTheAnnualDissapointment Cameron. Also ranking both Fleener and Allen in the top 15, when both have never produced well at the same time. Better to rank with a "Fleener/Allen" slot.

 

 

So that's my conclusions. Manning, Lacy, Cobb or Dez, and Graham. Hey, same as the first ones listed by Erikthebassist

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Where do you guys fall on referring to injury guys as busts?

 

I'm not a big fan unless it's an ongoing an infuriating week to week thing, where you're constantly checking their game time status or they're hobbled and even then fail to return anything approximate their draft day price.

 

I'm also of this opinion given it's rather tricky to label a player a 'bust' if they were producing at their ADP prior to injury.

 

It's sorta hard for guys like Charles, Bell, Forsett to be declared busts when comparing them to Lacy, Hill and Anderson.

 

But I also believe the opposite point – that if a players doesn't get you the points you paid for on draft day they could very well be considered 'busts' is also fair.

[posty 2,296]

The regular season isn't over...

[erikthebassist 41]

Where do you guys fall on referring to injury guys as busts?

 

I'm not a big fan unless it's an ongoing an infuriating week to week thing, where you're constantly checking their game time status or they're hobbled and even then fail to return anything approximate their draft day price.

 

I'm also of this opinion given it's rather tricky to label a player a 'bust' if they were producing at their ADP prior to injury.

 

It's sorta hard for guys like Charles, Bell, Forsett to be declared busts when comparing them to Lacy, Hill and Anderson.

 

But I also believe the opposite point – that if a players doesn't get you the points you paid for on draft day they could very well be considered 'busts' is also fair.

I think a bust is someone who under performs draft day expectations for reasons other than injury or age. Injuries happen, it's not the player's fault. Eddie Lacy eating his trainer during the off season is his fault.

 

Notice I didn't include guys like Lynch or Foster either, I think once you hit 30 as an RB that's had a heavy load, expectations should be dropped but never are, those guys always seem to still go way before they should. So to me, Lynch is not a bust, I expected his decline. I could also say the same about Manning but he was so universally revered as timeless, you still gotta call him a bust.

 

Mark my words, either next year or in two years people will be talking about what a bust AP was, because come draft day people will ignore that he'll be 31 and has had a long career as a bellcow. I wouldn't use a first or a second round pick on him after this year, it's just too risky.

 

Now if anyone was ever going to buck this trend it would be him, but almost no one does. It's like one of the most predictable things about football, 30 year old backs start to slow down, by 32 they are done.

 

Meanwhile, back on the Ranch, a bust is a player that barring major injury or age should be top 5 at his position but fails to come anywhere close to that, IMHO anyways.

[SexyRexy 60]

I can't agree w aj. Dude has been a beast recently.

[Super Cubs 132]

If AJ Green is a bust then what is Demaryius Thomas, TY Hilton, and Mike Evans?

[murf74 461]

Injury is not a bust candidate

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Agreed with others, AJ Green is 8th ranked PPR WR. Was 7th WR taken in most drafts. 10th highest scoring non-QB and had a ADP of 17 – he's actually the very opposite of a bust.

 

Same for Kelce. Was 4th TE taken and currently ranked 6th. In fact, he had a ADP of 51 but currently the 44th highest scoring non QB player.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

I wouldn't count an injury as a bust, unless it's some Fred Taylor 'doubtful for 12 weeks with a hamstring' situation.

 

QBs

Luck. Even before injured he sucked, except for his one monster week (naturally against me)

Peyton Manning.

Bradford

 

RB

Lacy

CJ

Hill

 

WR

Cobb

Mathews

Alshon (see the Fred Taylor blurb above)

 

TE

Graham

Cameron

Fleener

[murf74 461]

No RB Murray?

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

No RB Murray?

 

I don't know, I don't see him as a season killer or real bust (save for the last two weeks) – especially given the current RB landscape. ADP of 15, RB 8 but sits at about 40th in scoring and 16th ranked RB. He certainly has produced what people paid for him, but if he's a bust then so is McCoy, Stewart and Forte. Busts IMO are top 3 rd guys guys that murder a season. CJ Anderson and Lacy types.

 

 

[Vikings4ever 496]

No RB Murray?

He's a disappointment, to be sure, but it's a testament to how crappy the RBs have been this year that he's not even in the running for bust of the year.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Green? No. He's not worthy of being on this list. Dez? Thomas? Go check where AJ ranks among wrs. Yes I'm aware of his box scores. You simply can't call the 7th best scoring wr an award winning bust. Who rated him as wr7 preseason? Everyone. Sounds like it lines up to me. Again, yes I'm aware of his peaks and valleys.

 

Also Kelce is TE6. Who ranked him around TE 4-6? Everyone. The 6th best TE just doesn't score much in a year.

 

Track, look at the leagues stats and fantasy scores before making lists rather than just off the top of head thinking who didn't score as high as you though. Biggest TE bust was Graham by miles and miles. RB was Lacy, Lynch, everyone except AP.

[BobSanders_33 127]

I went into this year thinking that Lacy could be the number 1 overall RB. He has to be the biggest bust of the draft.

[Boilermaker04 11]

Injury absolutely has to count for bust. You are drafting for an expectation, if a pick fails to meet that the why really isn't important, the pick was a bust.

 

The only consideration with busts and injury is how far you drop their ranking next season. Less than if they simply stink. I'd wager.

 

And on topic, Lacy by a mile the year. Peyton yes if you ignored the signs last season, but still less than a guy people thought could be the top scorer in a season.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Injury absolutely has to count for bust. You are drafting for an expectation, if a pick fails to meet that the why really isn't important, the pick was a bust.

 

The only consideration with busts and injury is how far you drop their ranking next season. Less than if they simply stink. I'd wager.

 

And on topic, Lacy by a mile the year. Peyton yes if you ignored the signs last season, but still less than a guy people thought could be the top scorer in a season.

 

Ok, but when do make that determination. Is Edelman a bust? Forsett? Steve Smith? If guys were performing at or above their draft position and get injured it's sort of silly to call them a 'bust'. In fact, it makes it easy to cut ties and use that roster equity on a player who (potentially) can score at or above what the player you refer to as a bust was.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Ok, but when do make that determination. Is Edelman a bust? Forsett? Steve Smith? If guys were performing at or above their draft position and get injured it's sort of silly to call them a 'bust'. In fact, it makes it easy to cut ties and use that roster equity on a player who (potentially) can score at or above what the player you refer to as a bust was.

Great points on when to draw the line. I'll make a call and say it's draft status based. Edelman was overlooked and under drafted so Id call him a success even with the injury. His owners were happy with what he gave them. If it's a guy like Bell or Charles who were taken first then Id say that's a bust. You drafted them to carry your team all year and they aren't. The later the pick, the more leeway they get.

[erikthebassist 41]

Super Cubs, on 07 Dec 2015 - 8:02 PM, said:

If AJ Green is a bust then what is Demaryius Thomas, TY Hilton, and Mike Evans?

If you drafted green high he has screwed you most weeks of the season except the last two, doesn't do you any good if you were already out of the playoff hunt, which I'm guessing a lot of green owners were, I call that a bust. Outside of the last 2 he's had three decent weeks with one monster.

[tanatastic 2,061]

If you drafted green high he has screwed you most weeks of the season except the last two, doesn't do you any good if you were already out of the playoff hunt, which I'm guessing a lot of green owners were, I call that a bust. Outside of the last 2 he's had three decent weeks with one monster.

So 5 good games and a bunch of meh games. But how many absolute duds? Only 2 games w 5 or less. Disappointing? Yes. A bust? Not quite. Don't underestimate those 7-10 pnt games, those aren't team killing. 2-3 are team killing scores. He's still wr7 and could climb by seasons end.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

If you drafted green high he has screwed you most weeks of the season except the last two, doesn't do you any good if you were already out of the playoff hunt, which I'm guessing a lot of green owners were, I call that a bust. Outside of the last 2 he's had three decent weeks with one monster.

 

213 PPR points. AP has 215. Green was drafted a round and a half later. Like I said, Green is the opposite of a bust.

[erikthebassist 41]

213 PPR points. AP has 215. Green was drafted a round and a half later. Like I said, Green is the opposite of a bust.

In a total points league maybe, but for a third rounder he isn't carrying any teams to a championship and I'm glad I didn't spend the ADP on him. He's simply too inconsistent. He's not a bust on the order of Cobb, but to me, still a bust.

[tanatastic 2,061]

In a total points league maybe, but for a third rounder he isn't carrying any teams to a championship and I'm glad I didn't spend the ADP on him. He's simply too inconsistent. He's not a bust on the order of Cobb, but to me, still a bust.

I'd take Green over Julio right now. He's come through when it counted most, I'll take that. Ppr been solid all year even in his down games.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

For a third rounder he isn't carrying any teams to a championship and I'm glad I didn't spend the ADP on him.

 

He was a second rounder (17th), not a third and it's all relative – a players points have a finite value relative to the other players drafted, not draft position. I'm the first guy in line to champion the importance of consistency but look at the WR ahead of him and some of the duds they put up. Brown had a stretch of under 10pt games, Beckham has been waay more inconsistent and both Jones and Hopkins have had their share of 10pt games. Can you point out the mythical WR who have put up 20+ points every week? To that end, let's look at the 11 players who surrounded him by ADP.

 

12. D Thomas

13. Forte

14. Calvin Johnson

15. DeMarco Murray

16. Hill

17. Green

18. Luck

19. Cobb

20. McCoy

21. Rodgers

22. Forsett

 

He's outscored every single one of them. The only receivers taken ahead of him that have had better seasons are Beckham, Brown and Jones. All taken in the top 10. You can call him a bust 'to me' all you like, but there is zero evidence to support your claim.

[Mike Nice 40]

To me what they do in weeks 14,15,16 outweighs regular season. So unless totally useless during reg season and can't be trusted in playoffs, then bust.

 

Also green has had 2 great weeks in a row. So yes he could of possibly carried teams into playoffs.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

Lacy, Hill, CJ Anderson, Cobb, Matthews, Bryant (and not because if his injury, though maybe Romo's), Peyton Manning, Lynch (he was poor before his injury), Joe Randle, Murray.

 

Lacy, Anderson, Randle & Murray are the worst, they were all benched midseason. That's beyond busting.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

Whole offenses have busted: Green Bay, Philly, Denver, Miami, Dallas.

[wizbang 10]

Top 2 per position. I factor in ADP highly and discount injuries heavily.

 

#1 QB - Luck. Obvious #1 bust, rivaling Lacy for bust of the year.

 

#2 QB - Manning. Many (me) saw this coming but his ADP stayed high and he failed miserably.

Honorable Mention: Bradford. His ADP wasn't high enough to beat out the other two but he was definitely a 'hot' pick coming into the Chip Kelly offense.

 

#1 RB - Lacy. Some injury issues but mostly getting out played by a total plodder in Starks and was a Top 5 guy after finishing so well last year.

 

#2 RB - CJ Anderson. First round pick turned bench warmer.

 

Honorable Mention: Lynch. Injuries played a bigger role than the previous two but he was pretty awful when healthy too.

 

#1 WR - Cobb. I'm still baffled at how far he's fallen in what was supposed to be his year. Had to fall on a fumble last week to break double digits... In PPR.

 

#2 WR - Evans. There were plenty of warning signs but his ADP stayed up there and his average points per is worse than Cobb somehow.

 

#1 TE - Graham. Performance relative to ADP makes him the clear winner here. I called this one saying 'when the season starts we will be reminded that the Seattle offense is about two people, Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. OK so that's 50% right but dead on in terms of how it impacted Jimmy.

 

#2 TE - Witten. He was taken like a TE1 and produced like a TE2. At least Kelce puts up upper tier TE1 numbers. TE2 numbers are dreadful.

 

Of these I called or actively avoided: Manning, Lacy, Graham, Witten

Didn't see coming but didn't end up drafting: Luck, Evans

Drafted in one league at least: CJ, Cobb

[brotherbock 349]

To me what they do in weeks 14,15,16 outweighs regular season. So unless totally useless during reg season and can't be trusted in playoffs, then bust.

The factor that ignores is guys who tanked your team so bad it doesn't matter what they do in the playoffs though, right? I imagine it won't affect the fantasy community much at all if Lacy runs for 600 yards in weeks 15-16.

 

 

 

 

I know Luck got hurt, but on that front, when he was playing he was putting up a lot of points. He wasn't playing great real life football, but I don't think I lost but one game I started him in.

[jrokh 569]

Jeremy Hill finished the regular season as the #20 RB in my league. Disappointing relative to ADP/expectations, Yes, Bust, No.

[The Muffin Man 6]

Injured players aren't busts because you don't sacrifice a lineup spot to start them.

 

Starting Lacy every week kills your team more than plugging Rawls in for Lynch.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Jeremy Hill finished the regular season as the #20 RB in my league. Disappointing relative to ADP/expectations, Yes, Bust, No.

Calling Hill not a bust is silly. Guy dismantled fantasy teams from the inside out. Only reason he wasnt a total team killer is cuz he was so bad people actually benched him for a long stretch.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

Injured players aren't busts because you don't sacrifice a lineup spot to start them.

 

Starting Lacy every week kills your team more than plugging Rawls in for Lynch.

 

This. How could you consider Le'Veon Bell a bust when he suffers a freak injury? I owned him and was upset that I only got to have my 1st round pick for a couple of games but he was an absolute stud in those games which helped me get into the playoffs. I was much better off having Bell those few games and starting WW RBs in his place than starting a true bust like Lacy week to week.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Calling Hill not a bust is silly. Guy dismantled fantasy teams from the inside out. Only reason he wasnt a total team killer is cuz he was so bad people actually benched him for a long stretch.

 

I'm sorta torn on him. He's certainly a unique case, as you mention most owners probably lugged him around all season and could never start w/ confidence. I know he certainly murdered me with the week 2 and 3 numbers (3 combined PPR points) – but I kept running him out there until the BYE week. After I snagged McFadden week 6 he was never started again.

 

I certainly think he underplayed his ADP, his inconsistency was maddening and a case can certainly be made for the 'bust' tag, but I have to belive owners at least benefited from week 1 and 4 which were top 5 weeks. He was the 9th RB off the board and if you look at his total points he ultimately averaged only about 3 points less a week than McCoy (who is not in the bust conversation) and had three weeks with donuts due to injury.

 

If anything, Hill's saving grace was that he didn't have any game time decisions allowing owners to make easier lineup and add/drop decisions.

 

But yeah (as an owner), I wouldn't disagree with the bust designation.

[travis_henrys_baby_momma 10]

Pretty much my whole team felt like busts.....these were my first 4 picks...bust...bust...bust...bust. Passing TDs are worth 6 in this standard scoring league....so taking a QB fairly early is desirable...waiting on WRs usually doesnt hurt too bad.

 

Per usual, I relied heavily on Doug Orth's Big Board as I simply don't have time to research everything before the draft. Had to manage my @ss off to get into playoff contention...but have the most "points against"...and not going to make it without the biggest FF miracle of all time.

 

 

1. Marshawn Lynch 2. Justin Forsett 3. Peyton Manning 4. Ameer Abdullah

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

He was a second rounder (17th), not a third and it's all relative a players points have a finite value relative to the other players drafted, not draft position. I'm the first guy in line to champion the importance of consistency but look at the WR ahead of him and some of the duds they put up. Brown had a stretch of under 10pt games, Beckham has been waay more inconsistent and both Jones and Hopkins have had their share of 10pt games. Can you point out the mythical WR who have put up 20+ points every week? To that end, let's look at the 11 players who surrounded him by ADP.

 

12. D Thomas

13. Forte

14. Calvin Johnson

15. DeMarco Murray

16. Hill

17. Green

18. Luck

19. Cobb

20. McCoy

21. Rodgers

22. Forsett

 

He's outscored every single one of them. The only receivers taken ahead of him that have had better seasons are Beckham, Brown and Jones. All taken in the top 10. You can call him a bust 'to me' all you like, but there is zero evidence to support your claim.

You sure do find some irrelevant stats to try to prove a point. I drafted him in my standard league in the 3rd round. 3.21 I believe. Any standard league owner will tell you that green has been a bust this year. You take away his 200 yard game and last week and there's not a single other week with 100 yards. Most of us play H2H so for lining him up every week other than those 2 weeks you really haven't gotten much. Doesn't matter where he ranks for season scoring because of the fact he's been so inconsistent and he had that 1 monster game that skews his stats. He has 1000 yards on the season and got almost a quarter of it in 1 game. So in those other 11 weeks he has been below average in standard scoring, therefore a bust. In PPR he's been serviceable but definitely not outplaying his ADP.