Lamar Miller: Ranked #2 RB on FFToday cheatsheet?

[R8RMick 242]

Lamar Miller has finally gotten rid of the two complaints everyone ever had about him (snap count and touches per game), and now there's people that all of a sudden rank him worse than he really ever was pre-draft?

 

Keep sucking down the kool-aid of your preference then...

This ^

 

His new situation is light years better than the idiocy he played with at Miami.

[delchay 6]

http://fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=1

 

 

HUH?? Tier 1?? Am I missing something? I have him as about the 10th Rb on my list. Any info please.

 

He is that high on PPR drafts. Going to catch a lot passes this year.

[-Vyse- 65]

This ^

 

His new situation is light years better than the idiocy he played with at Miami.

I agree that his situation is definitely better than it was in Miami but I'm more of a prove it kind of guy. He hasn't really done it in the past so I'm not entirely sold on him yet. I'll see how preseason turns out and where his draft position ends up after all the hype

[giraldi02 470]

I agree that his situation is definitely better than it was in Miami but I'm more of a prove it kind of guy. He hasn't really done it in the past so I'm not entirely sold on him yet. I'll see how preseason turns out and where his draft position ends up after all the hype

Not counting his rookie season...

So a sample size of 48 games...

Lamar Miller has had 20 games where he didn't have at least 4.0 yards per carry.

Of those 20 games, only eight of them were games where he had more than 10 carries. Six of those 20 games he scored a touchdown (five rushing, one receiving). From a fantasy perspective, now we're looking at 14 games in 3 seasons where he might've been a dud.

Of the 14 games where he had less than 4.0 yards per carry and didn't score a touchdown, seven of them he got fewer than 10 touches.

Thank the football gods that he's out of Miami.

[Matt Mueller 146]

You don't win your league with your first round pick. But you damn sure can lose it.

 

Additionally, you don't draft a player in the first round under the assumption they're going to be the top scorer in all of fantasy. Is it part of their desired upside? Yes. But their upside isn't the only thing that projects them to be fantasy relevant. They have high floors and their upside brings them to a potentially elite level. But given the volatility, injury risk, and any other variable associated, the desire is that your player can finish as a top option in THEIR position.

 

Maybe Lamar Miller doesn't finish as the top running back. Maybe he doesn't finish as the #2 running back. But I find it almost impossible to believe that he's not going to be a RB1 many, if not a majority, of the weeks this season and overall.

 

I draft for upside in the middle-late rounds. I want the guys at the top of the draft to have the highest floors. Miller has a considerably high floor.

 

I think I agree with your premise, that you can't win your draft with your pick in the first round but can lose it, but I kinda disagree with the conclusion.

 

Miller seems like a guy we are projecting to take a leap and maybe taking him over more proven options like an Adrian Peterson or an elite WR has more risk built in.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I've seen a couple high floor comments tossed around. Did you guys own him last year? I'm not sure I've ever been more frustrated with a top pick.

Whether the team totally bundled his workload, the offensive line sucked or whatever, this was a guy who I had no idea what to do with come playoff time.

He followed up really big games 100 yard plus rushing games in week 5 and 6 by rushing the ball only 49 times over the next 5 weeks for a grand total of 148 yards.

Then he'd pop another 100 yard and 80 yard effort. And your'e saying to yourself. Ok. It's the fantasy playoffs. I drafted this dude. I'll roll with him.

Here comes week 15 @ San Diego.

9 carries for 12 yards. 2 catches for 12 yards. Poop. I wonder how many playoff teams lost with him in the lineup that week.

Week 16 vs Indy

15 carries for 31 yards, 5 catches for 36 and a saving TD.

Decent production but I personally can't get overly excited about a player who I barely wanted to put in my lineup a couple months back.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14886/lamar-miller

[Matt Mueller 146]

His 4 biggest games of the season rushing were @ Tenn, Hou, Balt, NYG. Not exactly a whose who of defense in the NFL 2015.

 

He had 65 carries for 490 yards those 4 weeks. 7.5 YPC

 

He had 129 carries for 382 in the other 12 weeks. 2.9 YPC

[Matt Mueller 146]

Wow I got off on a tangent I originally came in to bag on Osweiler and his 10-6 TD to Int ratio, with a 86.4 rating who everyone seems to assume is going to be an upgrade to Hoyer's 19-7 and 91.4.

[smash-a-mus 6]

I think its crazy to rank him at #2 especially with no track record and on a new team. Yes the dolphins never used him correctly, I get that... but if he was worth any gold, why did they let him walk? Any GM worth a damn can run the same numbers and project what he would do with a full set of carries. Maybe dolphin's GM is an idiot who knows.

 

If we're focusing on rankings... I know its a mixed bag at the top of the RB rankings this year. Leveon, charles coming off injuries, ADP turning 30, Gurley could be in for sophomore slump but I would probably take at least two of those over Lamar.

[SexyRexy 60]

I don't agree w this ranking and also don't agree with using fosters carries over his career as a HOUSTON reference. Different system, different coach. Not comparable at all.

 

O'Brien is a pass first coach bottom line.

 

I don't think miller will be bad but giving him that much love is aggressive.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I don't agree w this ranking and also don't agree with using fosters carries over his career as a HOUSTON reference. Different system, different coach. Not comparable at all.

 

O'Brien is a pass first coach bottom line.

 

I don't think miller will be bad but giving him that much love is aggressive.

Yes that is one important distinction that is being overlooked. Not the same coaching staff as when Foster went off.

 

However Miller is a good pass catching back so I still think he ends up a stud, especially in PPR

[Kent 228]

I think he's probably a nice second round pick in a 12 man standard.

 

He doesn't excite me. When I've played against him he's always had a dud game. He's an odd combo of huge up and downside.

[giraldi02 470]

I think he's probably a nice second round pick in a 12 man standard.

 

He doesn't excite me. When I've played against him he's always had a dud game. He's an odd combo of huge up and downside.

 

If I'm drafting from the 7 or 8 pick on...I'm hoping for just this. Let me snag a guy like AJG and then scoop him up on the turn.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

The leap in all this is that he will have a career year in both carries (by nearly 60) and receptions (moving to a new team with a different offense). It's all about the touches and his are overinflated by 30-40. I doubt anyone here is arguing that if he gets 328 touches he won't have a huge year.

[giraldi02 470]

The leap in all this is that he will have a career year in both carries (by nearly 60) and receptions (moving to a new team with a different offense). It's all about the touches and his are overinflated by 30-40. I doubt anyone here is arguing that if he gets 328 touches he won't have a huge year.

 

Yep. The most touches he's ever had in a season was 254 (2014). That's the only season in his career he's had more than 200 carries as well. He's 25 years old with minimal wear on the tires. Gimme.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I like targeting backs in the first who meet these criteria

 

Have the skill to produce with their touches (no brainer)

 

Are the clear cut guy

 

Have a quality backup who I can pick up if my starter goes down.

 

Then to a lesser degree have a track record

 

Bell has produced great when handed the ball, plus he has Deangelo.

 

AP is extremely consistent and wants to amass as many yards as possible before he retired. Plus I believe he has a very quality backup in Mckinnon

 

David JOHNSON doesn't have as much of a track record, but damn did he look great last year. Plus Chris is a solid backup to have.

 

Gurley may now be the best pure runner between the tackles in the NFL. His coach is absolutely dedicated to featuring him. He does not have a clear cut backup though. Even if he did, the Rams offense is so bad that it takes a super talent to shine through the muck.

 

Now Miller. He hasn't had a huge load in a season. He isn't quite as large as the other top drafted backs. He has been spotty with production. His backups are absolute crap. There is much more risk in taking him so early. Plus Osweiler is the QB. I don't see a ton of scoring chances in his future.

[Maulers1973 117]

His 4 biggest games of the season rushing were @ Tenn, Hou, Balt, NYG. Not exactly a whose who of defense in the NFL 2015.

 

He had 65 carries for 490 yards those 4 weeks. 7.5 YPC

 

He had 129 carries for 382 in the other 12 weeks. 2.9 YPC

 

This is VERY telling. I owned him last year, and it was feast or famine. Yes, I was quite pissed during the playoffs.

 

On the upside the Titans and Cots defense twice a year is pretty tasty. The Jags defense could be nasty, but that has yet to be confirmed. Plus, I believe Obrien will better understand how to use a versatile, shifty guy like Miller.

 

There are guys I would target before him, but he's very capable of finishing as a Top 10 back.

[The Postman 3]

Miller was the 6th RB taken in my high stakes league at 2.03, behind Zeke, Bell, DJohns, Gurley, and AP.

 

Am I allowed to say this, or will the forum police flag my post because I am discussing a draft?

Are you telling me that Elliott went ahead of Bell, Johnson Gurley and AP? That league may be high stakes but I say low IQ!! Maybe lots of America's Team homers???

[Ray_T 591]

I've seen a couple high floor comments tossed around. Did you guys own him last year? I'm not sure I've ever been more frustrated with a top pick.

 

Whether the team totally bundled his workload, the offensive line sucked or whatever, this was a guy who I had no idea what to do with come playoff time.

 

He followed up really big games 100 yard plus rushing games in week 5 and 6 by rushing the ball only 49 times over the next 5 weeks for a grand total of 148 yards.

 

Then he'd pop another 100 yard and 80 yard effort. And your'e saying to yourself. Ok. It's the fantasy playoffs. I drafted this dude. I'll roll with him.

 

Here comes week 15 @ San Diego.

 

9 carries for 12 yards. 2 catches for 12 yards. Poop. I wonder how many playoff teams lost with him in the lineup that week.

 

Week 16 vs Indy

 

15 carries for 31 yards, 5 catches for 36 and a saving TD.

 

Decent production but I personally can't get overly excited about a player who I barely wanted to put in my lineup a couple months back.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14886/lamar-miller

He was on my team for 2 years. I bailed last year. This was one of the reasons.

 

and believe me, I dont have a major hate for the guy, but he often seemed to disappoint. It got to the point where I really didnt want the roller coaster ride that was his production and I decided to take my chances elsewhere.

 

Maybe it was a Miami thing because Tannehill was the same for the most part. Just left you wanting more.

 

anyhow, I will go out and guarantee one thing about Miller for next year:

 

His second half will be better than his first half.

 

Considering the offense has a new QB, a new RB and a new draft pick to play and take some targets opposite Hopikins, I would go out on a limb and say the whole offense will play better in the second half than they do in the first half of the season.

 

so if (note the word if) he does perform below expectations in games 1-5, and you dont own him, that is the time to acquire him at a discount.

[-Vyse- 65]

He was on my team for 2 years. I bailed last year. This was one of the reasons.

 

and believe me, I dont have a major hate for the guy, but he often seemed to disappoint. It got to the point where I really didnt want the roller coaster ride that was his production and I decided to take my chances elsewhere.

 

Maybe it was a Miami thing because Tannehill was the same for the most part. Just left you wanting more.

 

anyhow, I will go out and guarantee one thing about Miller for next year:

 

His second half will be better than his first half.

 

Considering the offense has a new QB, a new RB and a new draft pick to play and take some targets opposite Hopikins, I would go out on a limb and say the whole offense will play better in the second half than they do in the first half of the season.

 

so if (note the word if) he does perform below expectations in games 1-5, and you dont own him, that is the time to acquire him at a discount.

I think he definitely has the situational potential to be a good back. It's just hard for me to trust him when he was so inconsistent. But I might look into acquiring him like you said for the latter part of the season

[Kent 228]

Miller was the 6th RB taken in my high stakes league at 2.03, behind Zeke, Bell, DJohns, Gurley, and AP.

 

Am I allowed to say this, or will the forum police flag my post because I am discussing a draft?

This post has some relation to this thread's subject matter. Not so much your other draft post in that other thread.

 

Honestly, I like reading about people's drafts and where players go. Make a thread about it. Seriously.

[phillygrrl08 139]

Are you telling me that Elliott went ahead of Bell, Johnson Gurley and AP? That league may be high stakes but I say low IQ!! Maybe lots of America's Team homers???

 

Yup.

[Ray_T 591]

Just cuz it's a big money draft doesnt mean people wont stray from their draft lists to draft their homeboy.

[joneo 529]

It's a somewhat risky ranking given that Miller has never handled a "workhorse" workload and there's some doubt if Houston is willing to give it to him or if he can take it on for an entire season.

 

But, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a young running back in his prime in a better situation. He was underutilized in Miami and I'm willing to bet he's going to be given the chance to reach 20 touches a game (if not more) in Houston, and keep his high efficiency numbers. He averaged 15 touches per game last season, 15.8 touches per game in 2014... if he keeps up the efficiency he's displayed the last two years (.76 FPts/touch) and gets an average of 20 touches per game, he'll score 244.5 FPts (standard) scoring. That would've ranked 2nd among RBs last year, 5th in among RBs in 2014. If you think he can handle a couple more carries per game and the TD gods smile on him a bit, then his ceiling is actually higher, meaning he's got a chance to be the top fantasy RB in 2016.

 

For comparison, Arian Foster touches per game...

 

21.2 (2015) (.67 FPts/touch)

22.9 (2014) (.79 FPts/touch)

20.4 (2013) (.59 FPts/touch)

24.4 (2012) (.68 FPts/touch)

25.4 (2011) (.77 FPts/touch)

24.5 (2010) (.84 FPts/touch)

This definitely puts him at 5 on my list, which puts him going off the board early 2nd round. In my other auction league, I can only hope people aren't high on him and I can pick him up for a bargain. Thanks for the heads up Mike!

[The Postman 3]

Just cuz it's a big money draft doesnt mean people wont stray from their draft lists to draft their homeboy.

True!!!!

[$epphori$ 118]

I was a little surprised by the Miller #2 ranking too at first. But Houston has been very good at running the ball and Miller is going to be 3 down back so I wouldnt be surprised if he meets these expectations. That being said I would like some feedback on a decision I need to make soon. Lets say you have AJ Green, OBJ, David Johnson as your 3 players for keepers so far. Your 4th keeper can be either Gronk or Miller. Who do you take? Scoring system is pretty standard except .25pt per reception. 12 team league.

 

Now as far as drop off in talent at each position RB available by the time I draft in round one options would prob be

 

Abdulla

Gore

Ivory

Forsett

Riddick

Simms

 

not any great talent at all. Obviously the top 15-20 are rostered.

 

Now as far as TE goes only Gronk and Reed would be protected as a keeper and I may even have first shot at the next availble. My lean is to get Miller. Only because I feel there are a lot of great TE's that can put up pretty good numbers. Not Gronk like but good enough where I feel I cant get that same value in a RB if I dont get Miller and take my RB2 in the RB-20's range.

 

We can start 2 RB's but we can also start 1 if you rather start an extra WR.

 

Would love to hear peoples opinions. Thanks

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I was a little surprised by the Miller #2 ranking too at first. But Houston has been very good at running the ball and Miller is going to be 3 down back so I wouldnt be surprised if he meets these expectations. That being said I would like some feedback on a decision I need to make soon. Lets say you have AJ Green, OBJ, David Johnson as your 3 players for keepers so far. Your 4th keeper can be either Gronk or Miller. Who do you take? Scoring system is pretty standard except .25pt per reception. 12 team league.

 

Now as far as drop off in talent at each position RB available by the time I draft in round one options would prob be

 

Abdulla

Gore

Ivory

Forsett

Riddick

Simms

 

not any great talent at all. Obviously the top 15-20 are rostered.

 

Now as far as TE goes only Gronk and Reed would be protected as a keeper and I may even have first shot at the next availble. My lean is to get Miller. Only because I feel there are a lot of great TE's that can put up pretty good numbers. Not Gronk like but good enough where I feel I cant get that same value in a RB if I dont get Miller and take my RB2 in the RB-20's range.

 

We can start 2 RB's but we can also start 1 if you rather start an extra WR.

 

Would love to hear peoples opinions. Thanks

There is no question in my mind it's Gronk. You have your top starter. Having an advantage at TE is much more important than the risk Miller brings

[$epphori$ 118]

There is no question in my mind it's Gronk. You have your top starter. Having an advantage at TE is much more important than the risk Miller brings

I have had Gronk the last 3 years so I have enjoyed having the upper hand at TE. But this year with Brady being suspended 4 games, Bennett being on board to steal a few TDs.... I am just looking at this with a devils advocate and thinking that this may be the year Gronk doesnt live up to his first round ADP. And if I can land a TE that is gonna net me 65-900-9 I am not to far off from Gronks #'s

Where if I took Miller at lets say 1000-10TD 45-rec 400yrds 2TDrec or a RB in the RB25 range I would only get 700yrds 5TD

 

I am thinking it will be easier to close the gap at TE than at RB

 

Funny thing is a few years ago after Gronks injury I was all over taking gronk late 1st early 2nd and everyone on here gave me for it...saying they wouldnt tale him unless he slipped to 4th lol

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I have had Gronk the last 3 years so I have enjoyed having the upper hand at TE. But this year with Brady being suspended 4 games, Bennett being on board to steal a few TDs.... I am just looking at this with a devils advocate and thinking that this may be the year Gronk doesnt live up to his first round ADP. And if I can land a TE that is gonna net me 65-900-9 I am not to far off from Gronks #'s

Where if I took Miller at lets say 1000-10TD 45-rec 400yrds 2TDrec or a RB in the RB25 range I would only get 700yrds 5TD

 

I am thinking it will be easier to close the gap at TE than at RB

 

Funny thing is a few years ago after Gronks injury I was all over taking gronk late 1st early 2nd and everyone on here gave me ###### for it...saying they wouldnt tale him unless he slipped to 4th lol

I was saying Graham was worth as much also.... wrong tight end to hitch my wagon to.

[$epphori$ 118]

I was saying Graham was worth as much also.... wrong tight end to hitch my wagon to.

Yeah he sure did drop off in Seattle.

I have until the last few days in Aug to decide on Gronk. The other thing that has killed me is 3 out of the last 4 years I have lost in the superbowl. Its the week 16 that Gronk , Brady (who I have had the last 3 years) get sat and I am left wthout my key starters for our superbowl.

[Ray_T 591]

I was a little surprised by the Miller #2 ranking too at first. But Houston has been very good at running the ball and Miller is going to be 3 down back so I wouldnt be surprised if he meets these expectations. That being said I would like some feedback on a decision I need to make soon. Lets say you have AJ Green, OBJ, David Johnson as your 3 players for keepers so far. Your 4th keeper can be either Gronk or Miller. Who do you take? Scoring system is pretty standard except .25pt per reception. 12 team league.

 

Now as far as drop off in talent at each position RB available by the time I draft in round one options would prob be

 

Abdulla

Gore

Ivory

Forsett

Riddick

Simms

 

not any great talent at all. Obviously the top 15-20 are rostered.

 

Now as far as TE goes only Gronk and Reed would be protected as a keeper and I may even have first shot at the next availble. My lean is to get Miller. Only because I feel there are a lot of great TE's that can put up pretty good numbers. Not Gronk like but good enough where I feel I cant get that same value in a RB if I dont get Miller and take my RB2 in the RB-20's range.

 

We can start 2 RB's but we can also start 1 if you rather start an extra WR.

 

Would love to hear peoples opinions. Thanks

you gotta take Gronk.

 

anytime you can get the best player at their position, you take them.

[$epphori$ 118]

you gotta take Gronk.

 

anytime you can get the best player at their position, you take them.

I get the whole best player at each position. I have had Gronk for 3 years now.

 

So you would rather have this starting 5?

 

AJ Green

OBJ

David Johnson

Abdulla

Gronk

 

Instead of this starting 5?

 

AJ Green

OBJ

David Johnson

Lamar Miller

Kelce

 

I am sure I will be going back and forth on this all the way till draft day.

 

You guys are not concerned about Bennett taking some looks away from Gronk? and your not worried about the impact of Brady's 4 game suspension?

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ I'm not sure either way but I can see your point about going Lamar-Kelce.

 

I do think Gronk has a little bit more risk built in this year with Bennett and Brady's suspension.

[Ray_T 591]

I get the whole best player at each position. I have had Gronk for 3 years now.

 

So you would rather have this starting 5?

 

AJ Green

OBJ

David Johnson

Abdulla

Gronk

 

Instead of this starting 5?

 

AJ Green

OBJ

David Johnson

Lamar Miller

Kelce

 

I am sure I will be going back and forth on this all the way till draft day.

 

You guys are not concerned about Bennett taking some looks away from Gronk? and your not worried about the impact of Brady's 4 game suspension?

I'm not worried about anyone taking looks away from Gronk.

 

I'm more concerned about Gronks health as a whole than I am about this.

[$epphori$ 118]

.

[$epphori$ 118]

^ I'm not sure either way but I can see your point about going Lamar-Kelce.

 

I do think Gronk has a little bit more risk built in this year with Bennett and Brady's suspension.

I am just liking Miller in that Houston offense this year.

 

I'm not worried about anyone taking looks away from Gronk.

 

I'm more concerned about Gronks health as a whole than I am about this

I feel the same way about his health too, especially since I have been lucky to have him the last two years injury free. Is he due? You know the old saying...you cant predict an injury so you cant factor it in on a projection.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ I imagine that if Gronk is typical Gronk but Miller busts out big time you might be kicking yourself that you didn't go with your hunch.

 

Sometimes it's funner to win, and lose!, with your guys if that makes sense.

[Ray_T 591]

I am just liking Miller in that Houston offense this year.

 

I feel the same way about his health too, especially since I have been lucky to have him the last two years injury free. Is he due? You know the old saying...you cant predict an injury so you cant factor it in on a projection.

I disagree. you can factor it in if you want to.

 

Some use a technical analysis based on average games missed per season, but I just knock one or two hundred yards off the projections (unless he's hurt every single year).

 

of course, for Gronk he still ranks #1 even with the yardage knocked off, so its tough to let him go.

 

That being said, if you were gonna drop gronk, Kelce is a good person to think about dropping him for.

 

either way, maybe you could find a trade partner for Gronk and then keep Kelce? (or vice versa if you prefer) that is... if the rules of your league allow that sort of thing.

[$epphori$ 118]

I disagree. you can factor it in if you want to.

 

Some use a technical analysis based on average games missed per season, but I just knock one or two hundred yards off the projections (unless he's hurt every single year).

 

of course, for Gronk he still ranks #1 even with the yardage knocked off, so its tough to let him go.

 

That being said, if you were gonna drop gronk, Kelce is a good person to think about dropping him for.

 

either way, maybe you could find a trade partner for Gronk and then keep Kelce? (or vice versa if you prefer) that is... if the rules of your league allow that sort of thing.

Technically I am keeping Gronk, but me and the Miller owner have been talking trade. I would have to draft another TE. And based on where I draft I am pretty sure I can get any TE I want after Gronk, Graham, and Reed.

[$epphori$ 118]

^ I imagine that if Gronk is typical Gronk but Miller busts out big time you might be kicking yourself that you didn't go with your hunch.

 

Sometimes it's funner to win, and lose!, with your guys if that makes sense.

Well I have been losing with my guys (Gronk brady) I have finished 2nd in 2012 & 2013. I finished 4th in 2014. And 2nd again 2015. let me tell you it hasnt been as much fun as you think losing with Gronk lol.