Can we all agree that FF playoffs are more lucky than anything?

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

I am still playing in 3 out of 3 leagues

 

One team deserves to be there, but the other two teams had no business winning against what were clearly superior teams. Anyhow, I just want to reaffirm that getting to the playoffs takes some skill (as things balance out over the long haul of the season), but winning in fantasy playoffs is based on luck.

 

Lots of owners who were killing it all year who had Brady, Moss, TO, Romo, Houz, Wayne, Addai, Gates, etc probably got knocked down yesterday.

[KSB2424 3,148]

33% Drafting

33% Team coaching (i.e. setting lineups, add/drops, trades, ect.)

34% Luck

 

HTH

[Cuse9 129]

I 100% agree. It's more luck once you get into playoffs.

 

Drafting, building a team takes skill. Winning 2 or 3 games in a row at the end of the season is simply luck.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

If you draft well and make smart decisions you make your on luck.

[cribdog 0]

I 100% agree. It's more luck once you get into playoffs.

 

Drafting, building a team takes skill. Winning 2 or 3 games in a row at the end of the season is simply luck.

I agree. And thus, another argurment why total points leagues are better, it increases the skill and management percentages, and decreases the luck percentage. Make it more like 40-40-20, with the 20% being luck. Still not great, but a lot better than 33%.

 

Plus, everyone is still in it because we play to the end. It is nice to still have guys to root for. Oops, I forgot, everyone here makes it to the championship in every league they have, so you all are still playing...

[VaTerp 0]

We all know FF is a combo of luck and skill but the in the playoffs the luck factor increases dramatically b/c all it takes is a stud to flop or a ww pickup to blow up for 1 game and you're done.

 

That is why I LOVE my main league. We have several different money categories and the biggest payout goes to the best reg. season record with the playoff money coming in a close second.

[LOD01 198]

I 100% agree. It's more luck once you get into playoffs.

 

Drafting, building a team takes skill. Winning 2 or 3 games in a row at the end of the season is simply luck.

 

 

100% agree. Luck wins a lot but without the above bolded part, in a dynasty league, you are fodder for the mighty LOD and his crew of destruction shown below.

[FantasyKing 4]

I still think its 50/50 skill/luck. You can plan for these weeks but your players still have to perform so thats where the luck comes in.

 

My Superbowl team this week plays defenses the likes of the Rams, the Browns, the Lions, the Texans, the 49ers, and the Dolphins - that was not luck, I've been planning for the playoff schedule for weeks.

[RoadLizard 73]

The playoffs are a "One and Out" affair and therefore, YES, Luck does play a big role. But, the players that you draft and acquire have a lot to do with playoff game outcomes. Lets look:

 

- Too many players from monster teams might hurt during the FF playoffs due to resting or not playing for anything.

- All cold weather/outdoor players are also a concern this time of year. Browns, Patriots, Jets, Steelers, etc, etc....

- Schedule. I know that schedule might not matter as much as we think it does.... but it can make a difference, especially if your warm-weather WR is on the road in the NorthEast for weeks 14 through 16. Its something to consider.

 

As for other issues... having a balanced team always ends up being better than having 1 or 2 super-studs and then a bunch of nobodys. The team I beat this week has LT and Moss. Well, guess what? Even with LT scoring twice, Moss only getting some yards combined with the rest of his teams low point output was NOT enough to counter my team of solid players. I have no super-studs per say, but I have consistent scorers that had good matchups. If a few guys crap out on my team I have others that can cover. This is NOT the case with the team with 2 stars and then nothing else. If the 2 studs by chance struggle.... you are done.

 

But yeah.... 75% luck.

[ff07 2]

I agree. And thus, another argurment why total points leagues are better, it increases the skill and management percentages, and decreases the luck percentage. Make it more like 40-40-20, with the 20% being luck. Still not great, but a lot better than 33%.

 

Plus, everyone is still in it because we play to the end. It is nice to still have guys to root for. Oops, I forgot, everyone here makes it to the championship in every league they have, so you all are still playing...

 

Man I would love to see the formulas involved in this calculation

[cavern 70]

i tend to agree with the general premise... but yesterday's east coast weather was predictable. i proactively sought and started players that were either playing in a dome or away from said weather system and blew out some people who just rolled with what got them here

[Brad GLuckman 519]

If I lose next week then my position is fantasy football is purely luck

If I win then obviously it's 100% skill and I am the master

[nzoner 937]

FF Play-Offs weeks 15-17 is the main reason our league went to point system for all 17 weeks and then continue our FF Play-offs with the NFL Play-Offs,that and all 12 of our owners agree that FF should be about scoring points and putting together a good squad,not missing out being rewarded because you lost a h2h game by a point because you're trying to make FF be like the NFL when it can't.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Plus, everyone is still in it because we play to the end. It is nice to still have guys to root for. Oops, I forgot, everyone here makes it to the championship in every league they have, so you all are still playing...

 

Not everyone.

[Brad GLuckman 519]

FF Play-Offs weeks 15-17 is the main reason our league went to point system for all 17 weeks and then continue our FF Play-offs with the NFL Play-Offs,that and all 12 of our owners agree that FF should be about scoring points and putting together a good squad,not missing out being rewarded because you lost a h2h game by a point because you're trying to make FF be like the NFL when it can't.

 

How do you continue the FF PLayoffs with the real NFL Playoffs? Like...what happens with the players that don't make the playoffs?

Not being sarcastic....just asking?

[Exit 160 0]

There are skills that can enhance your luck!

 

 

 

I am still playing in 3 out of 3 leagues

 

One team deserves to be there, but the other two teams had no business winning against what were clearly superior teams. Anyhow, I just want to reaffirm that getting to the playoffs takes some skill (as things balance out over the long haul of the season), but winning in fantasy playoffs is based on luck.

 

Lots of owners who were killing it all year who had Brady, Moss, TO, Romo, Houz, Wayne, Addai, Gates, etc probably got knocked down yesterday.

[BunnysBastatrds 2,440]

How do you continue the FF PLayoffs with the real NFL Playoffs? Like...what happens with the players that don't make the playoffs?

Not being sarcastic....just asking?

 

We have another draft after the last regular season game. We have done it by auction and serpentine. We draft one QB, two RB's, two WR's, one kicker, and one defense. Everybody puts up thirty bucks and you get to enjoy FF all the way to the SB.

[Jello Biafra 0]

If I lose next week then my position is fantasy football is purely luck

If I win then obviously it's 100% skill and I am the master

 

I agree with this post.

[Perennial Contender 18]

If you draft well and make smart decisions you make your on luck.

 

I am sure that is what the Brady, Moss, Romo, Owens, Gates, Manning, & Addai owners all thought.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

I am hoping that there is some luck since I got bounced yesterday

[swirvenirvin 25]

Yeah 50/50 need some skill and luck to make it, but once you get in anything can happen

[FSW Mephisto 0]

Look at my MAD SKILZ this year that have enabled me to return and defend my Championship:

 

- Losing both drafted quarterbacks essentially in the first three weeks Delhomme and Leinart. TOTAL SKILL, which enabled me to:

 

- Trade my $83/$200 auction draft pick - Shaun Alexander - who I surmised sucked horribly after the first three games and wouldn't turn it around... for Brett Favre who was sitting on the bench of the Carson Palmer owner. TOTALLY SKILL... MY SKILL is what saw Favre take off and Palmer languish along with the rest of his Bengals.

 

- My incredible skill enabled me to pick up Aaron Stecker before the Bush owner did, because I knew he would be scoring and rushing like a madman. I have that skill.

 

- My unbelievable skill allowed me to pick up Kenny Watson the week he had 3TDs and scored me a whopping 34 FF points. Total skill.

 

- My SKILL saw me notice Greg Jennings... undrafted and sitting out there in FA... resulting my skillfully dropping Reggie Brown and picking up Greg Jennings, because MY SKILL allowed me to KNOW he was going to average more than 1 TD per game the entire rest of his 14-games in the lineup.

 

- Skillfully, I benched the Dallas DST this week and picked up the Buccaneers because deep down inside, I knew that they were going to finally break their historical no-kick-return-TD record as well as return an interception for a TD en route to having a monster day.

 

- It was my skill that allowed for Tom Brady, who in my league averaged an ASTOUNDING 45 ppg... toss up 9-points against one of the worst teams in the league and arguably their most hated rival this season.

 

Yeah, it's TOTALLY all about skill.

 

Only a focking complete self-important homo believes he has fantasy football "skill."

 

As always, I am where I am in my league based on chance... how the players play... when the injuries occur and to whom... who decides to have a monster game when... who decides to toss up a clunker and when... what the weather conditions are going to be...

 

There isn't a skill I possess that gives me control over anything that happens on the football field every week. Not one. Nor do you, so shut up.

[The Moz 69]

I was 13-0 with Brady . Moss . Housh -- Lost yesterday to a team I shoulda killed - and killed twice this season.

[FSW Mephisto 0]

I was 13-0 with Brady . Moss . Housh -- Lost yesterday to a team I shoulda killed - and killed twice this season.

 

You just didn't have the skill.

[The Moz 69]

Look at my MAD SKILZ this year that have enabled me to return and defend my Championship:

 

- Losing both drafted quarterbacks essentially in the first three weeks Delhomme and Leinart. TOTAL SKILL, which enabled me to:

 

- Trade my $83/$200 auction draft pick - Shaun Alexander - who I surmised sucked horribly after the first three games and wouldn't turn it around... for Brett Favre who was sitting on the bench of the Carson Palmer owner. TOTALLY SKILL... MY SKILL is what saw Favre take off and Palmer languish along with the rest of his Bengals.

 

- My incredible skill enabled me to pick up Aaron Stecker before the Bush owner did, because I knew he would be scoring and rushing like a madman. I have that skill.

 

- My unbelievable skill allowed me to pick up Kenny Watson the week he had 3TDs and scored me a whopping 34 FF points. Total skill.

 

- My SKILL saw me notice Greg Jennings... undrafted and sitting out there in FA... resulting my skillfully dropping Reggie Brown and picking up Greg Jennings, because MY SKILL allowed me to KNOW he was going to average more than 1 TD per game the entire rest of his 14-games in the lineup.

 

- Skillfully, I benched the Dallas DST this week and picked up the Buccaneers because deep down inside, I knew that they were going to finally break their historical no-kick-return-TD record as well as return an interception for a TD en route to having a monster day.

 

- It was my skill that allowed for Tom Brady, who in my league averaged an ASTOUNDING 45 ppg... toss up 9-points against one of the worst teams in the league and arguably their most hated rival this season.

 

Yeah, it's TOTALLY all about skill.

 

Only a focking complete self-important homo believes he has fantasy football "skill."

 

As always, I am where I am in my league based on chance... how the players play... when the injuries occur and to whom... who decides to have a monster game when... who decides to toss up a clunker and when... what the weather conditions are going to be...

 

There isn't a skill I possess that gives me control over anything that happens on the football field every week. Not one. Nor do you, so shut up.

 

Dumbass - it's MORE SKILL than luck you worthless fock

 

Drafting , WW , line ups is about research ( not so much " skill " but not so much luck either )

 

Maybe it is luck but I have been in the Final four 10 years 8 years going with 3 money leagues -- I have missed the final 4 - 5 times in 10 years playing in all my leagues. so out of 26 chances I have missed the final 4 in a league 5 times and have at least won my money back every year I have played.

 

FF is alot like Poker -- it's alot of Luck in getting the cards to go your way - but it's skill in how you handle what you are dealt.

 

 

Also I got your money in the mail today

[cavern 70]

maybe we can all agree that those who are playing brady owners - that SOMEHOW WON this week - in next week's superbowl are unlucky.

[seattleslew 0]

In one game it can be 100% luck. Face the wrong team on the wrong week, it doesn't matter how much better you drafted or your players are.

 

Over the course of a season and more games, the luck factor evens out.

 

So, yes, in the playoffs where one game means everything, more luck is involved.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

I am sure that is what the Brady, Moss, Romo, Owens, Gates, Manning, & Addai owners all thought.

 

As a Carson Palmer/Fred Taylor owner who is going to the Championship game for the second straight year in a row I can honestly say I've created my own luck.

 

So what your super-stud has a bad outing at a bad time? Welcome to the world of professional sports.

[FSW Mephisto 0]

It never ceases to amaze me how I bring out the best in those "skilled" in fantasy football. I see the common cries:

 

- RESEARCH IS A SKILL!!!

 

- SPEAKING IS A SKILL!!! YOU CAN'T DRAFT PLAYERS UNLESS YOU CAN SPEAK!!!

 

- TYPING IS A SKILL!!! I CAN'T SET MY LINEUP UNLESS I HAVE COMPUTER SKILLS!!!

 

- READING IS A SKILL!!! I HAVE TO BE ABLE TO READ AND ANALYZE MY PRE-SEASON ADP CHARTS!!!

 

- WRITING IS A SKILL!!! I HAVE TO BE ABLE TO JOT DOWN NOTES ABOUT WHO I'M GOING TO DRAFT AND WHY!!!

 

Shut the fock up. Until you can control what happens in the games in the NFL - your outcome is based on chance.

 

WAIT! Except those guys who actually PLAY in the NFL and are in FF leagues. THEY truly have skills that can affect the outcome of a game.

 

So, unless you're in the NFL - you have no "FF Skill." Plug in the names you were fortunate enough to draft - and hope. That's what we do every single focking week and no amount of your pleading skill will change that reality.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

It never ceases to amaze me how I bring out the best in those "skilled" in fantasy football. I see the common cries:

 

- RESEARCH IS A SKILL!!!

 

- SPEAKING IS A SKILL!!! YOU CAN'T DRAFT PLAYERS UNLESS YOU CAN SPEAK!!!

 

- TYPING IS A SKILL!!! I CAN'T SET MY LINEUP UNLESS I HAVE COMPUTER SKILLS!!!

 

- READING IS A SKILL!!! I HAVE TO BE ABLE TO READ AND ANALYZE MY PRE-SEASON ADP CHARTS!!!

 

- WRITING IS A SKILL!!! I HAVE TO BE ABLE TO JOT DOWN NOTES ABOUT WHO I'M GOING TO DRAFT AND WHY!!!

 

Shut the fock up. Until you can control what happens in the games in the NFL - your outcome is based on chance.

 

WAIT! Except those guys who actually PLAY in the NFL and are in FF leagues. THEY truly have skills that can affect the outcome of a game.

 

So, unless you're in the NFL - you have no "FF Skill." Plug in the names you were fortunate enough to draft - and hope. That's what we do every single focking week and no amount of your pleading skill will change that reality.

 

I think that the key skill is the utilization of the "Cancel Out Theory".

[zaurg 0]

- My SKILL saw me notice Greg Jennings... undrafted and sitting out there in FA... resulting my skillfully dropping Reggie Brown and picking up Greg Jennings, because MY SKILL allowed me to KNOW he was going to average more than 1 TD per game the entire rest of his 14-games in the lineup.

 

You're in a league where Jennings went undrafted. Skill/Knowledge/Research definitely can't be a factor, I agree with you, good point!

[1CGreen 0]

I would like to add to the discussion. I think selecting a Fantasy football team is alot like selecting a stock portfolio. Both items require you to conduct research and select stocks (or players based) on their perceived value at the time based on past performance. Skillful coaches are able to hedge their bets to minimize risks or losses. Some coaches diversify their RBs ( Stud rB theory, etc.). some coaches go out on a limb and draft players (or stocks) with little or no history based on mere speculation. (You get the picture.)

In both situations, the coach or manager has no control over the performance of each player per se, but rather the skill is involved in predicting which player or stock will perform based on what's available. Since this is a stochastic process, certainly luck is involved. However, you would agree that some stock pickers or portfolio managers are better than others (i.e., Warren Buffet vs. other investors). Fantasy owners are the same way. We can be stubborn and play a person even though the conditions say we shouldn't. That what makes this great!!

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

I would like to add to the discussion. I think selecting a Fantasy football team is alot like selecting a stock portfolio. Both items require you to conduct research and select stocks (or players based) on their perceived value at the time based on past performance. Skillful coaches are able to hedge their bets to minimize risks or losses. Some coaches diversify their RBs ( Stud rB theory, etc.). some coaches go out on a limb and draft players are stocks with little or no history based on mere speculation. (You get the picture.)

In both situations, the coach or manager has no control over the performance of each player per se, but rather the skill is involved in predicting which player or stock will perform based on what's available. Since this is a stochastic process, certainly luck is involved. However, you would agree that some stock pickers or portfolio managers are better than others (i.e., Warren Buffet vs. other investors). Fantasy owners are the same way. We can be stubborn and play a person even though the conditions say we shouldn't. That what makes this great!!

 

 

Well Said. What is "stochastic"?

[1CGreen 0]

I would like to add to the discussion. I think selecting a Fantasy football team is alot like selecting a stock portfolio. Both items require you to conduct research and select stocks (or players based) on their perceived value at the time based on past performance. Skillful coaches are able to hedge their bets to minimize risks or losses. Some coaches diversify their RBs ( Stud rB theory, etc.). some coaches go out on a limb and draft players are stocks with little or no history based on mere speculation. (You get the picture.)

In both situations, the coach or manager has no control over the performance of each player per se, but rather the skill is involved in predicting which player or stock will perform based on what's available. Since this is a stochastic process, certainly luck is involved. However, you would agree that some stock pickers or portfolio managers are better than others (i.e., Warren Buffet vs. other investors). Fantasy owners are the same way. We can be stubborn and play a person even though the conditions say we shouldn't. That what makes this great!!

 

stochastic is related to or based on chance

[seattleslew 0]

I would like to add to the discussion. I think selecting a Fantasy football team is alot like selecting a stock portfolio. Both items require you to conduct research and select stocks (or players based) on their perceived value at the time based on past performance. Skillful coaches are able to hedge their bets to minimize risks or losses. Some coaches diversify their RBs ( Stud rB theory, etc.). some coaches go out on a limb and draft players are stocks with little or no history based on mere speculation. (You get the picture.)

In both situations, the coach or manager has no control over the performance of each player per se, but rather the skill is involved in predicting which player or stock will perform based on what's available. Since this is a stochastic process, certainly luck is involved. However, you would agree that some stock pickers or portfolio managers are better than others (i.e., Warren Buffet vs. other investors). Fantasy owners are the same way. We can be stubborn and play a person even though the conditions say we shouldn't. That what makes this great!!

 

Or like poker. Luck can play a major role in any one hand. You can have the best cards and get your money in as a huge favorite, but can still get cracked by weaker cards. Short term is a crapshoot. Skill factors in long term results, just as it does in FF.

[zaurg 0]

I would like to add to the discussion. I think selecting a Fantasy football team is alot like selecting a stock portfolio. Both items require you to conduct research and select stocks (or players based) on their perceived value at the time based on past performance. Skillful coaches are able to hedge their bets to minimize risks or losses. Some coaches diversify their RBs ( Stud rB theory, etc.). some coaches go out on a limb and draft players (or stocks) with little or no history based on mere speculation. (You get the picture.)

In both situations, the coach or manager has no control over the performance of each player per se, but rather the skill is involved in predicting which player or stock will perform based on what's available. Since this is a stochastic process, certainly luck is involved. However, you would agree that some stock pickers or portfolio managers are better than others (i.e., Warren Buffet vs. other investors). Fantasy owners are the same way. We can be stubborn and play a person even though the conditions say we shouldn't. That what makes this great!!

 

Excellent post.

[nzoner 937]

How do you continue the FF PLayoffs with the real NFL Playoffs? Like...what happens with the players that don't make the playoffs?

Not being sarcastic....just asking?

 

 

The top 6 teams(of 12) based on our point system thru 17 weeks,11pts-0 pts based on how many teams you beat that week,make it to the play-offs.We then have a post-season redraft $5 per player where each owner can keep whatever play-off players he has and we also draft play-off players from the bottom 6 teams that didn't make it.All rosters must conform to regular season so there is no hoarding play-off qb's etc. if they're available.

 

We then start a post-season tourney based on points alone.You start players and keep starting them as long as they advance and whichever owner has the most points at the end of the NFL Superbowl wins $100,75% of the redraft pot and gets a trophy.Again during the play-offs an owner can only start 1 qb etc. so if he has additional players he still has to decide on which line-up he thinks best.

[Snuff 10]

If you have a bad year, it's luck....or "unlucky" I should say.

If you have a good year, it's skill.

 

I thought everyone knew this.

[ttmm 0]

I love it. Most people who were lucky (skillful?) enough to draft Brady and Moss hardly had to lift a finger all year and they easily dominated their leagues. They would simply run out the same linup each week and easily win. I wasn't so lucky. I had to scratch and claw for everything. Constant waver wire study/use, playing the best matchups each week, etc. I found it refreshing to crush a couple of these Brady teams this weekend.

 

Congrats to those who were lucky enough to draft the 2 dominant players this year and thus ended up with the best regular season records. In playoff time with severe weather conditions abound, however, it takes bit more skill to put out the wining linup. Nice to see that simply drafting Brady was not an automatic ticket to the championship.

[FSW Mephisto 0]

In playoff time with severe weather conditions abound, however, it takes bit more skill to put out the wining linup.

 

No it doesn't. It's take the luck of the weather on any given Sunday, jackass.