Thoughts on Moss and Welker with Cassel at QB?

[Bouve 0]

Looking for some thoughts on what happens to Randy Moss and Wes Welker with Matt Cassel at QB.

 

Is Cassel an accurate downfield thrower?

 

Will teams look to blitz NE more meaning more underneath passes to Welker?

 

[surferskin 30]

Moss will still be good but not great and Welker's value goes in the shitter.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Moss will still be very good but not great and Welker's value goes in the shitter.

 

 

Agree with this for the most part but still see Welker as a decent #3 WR. He'll still work the slot and be a safety valve for Cassel. Moss' value definately takes a hit (but a dropoff from last season was expected anyway). Moss has made very medicore QBs like a washed up Randall Cunningham, a never was Jeff George, a journeyman Gus Ferotte and a decent Brad Johnson into great fantasy QBs. Not saying that Cassell will become a great fantsy QB just that Moss can still be effective with a decent QB as long as they look to him.

[skinsrule05 30]

Moss will still be good but not great and Welker's value goes in the shitter.

 

I agree with this. A new QB will rely on his big gun and won't have the vision to check off the other receivers.

[Bouve 0]

He'll still work the slot and be a safety valve for Cassel.

 

This is my thinking as well. I think Moss takes the bigger hit then Welker.

[TD Ryan2 315]

it's hard to say Bouve but certainly neither are "better off".

The team simply isn't going to score as much with Cassel as they would with Brady.

 

IMO, Cassel is more likely to force the ball to Moss than Brady would.

There may be more opportunity at a lower success rate.

 

As for Welker, it takes a lot of confidence to thread the ball into the tight spots that Welker works into. There's a lot of precision and confidence needed there and I don't know if we'll see it right away.

 

Throwing it high/deep where only Moss has a chance to make a play is "safe".

Hitting your dump off RB and check-downs is "safe".

Zipping it into the guys working the slot and running precise inside routes is focking scary when the #1 thing drilled into your head all week is, "don't turn the ball over".

 

Right now, NE has to be thinking that their main goal is to be in every game come 4th quarter. Don't do anything stupid or risky, make sure we're in every game in the final quarter, and rely on the veteran players/coach to properly manage the clock and win the chess match at the end. This is how NE used to have to win games. This is why Vinatieri became a HOF kicker. No more SuperBowls and Record Books, it's back to basics.

[cmh6476 767]

i cant see moss getting as many tds as he got last year

[Dr. Octopus 0]

i cant see moss getting as many tds as he got last year

 

Did you see him reaching record breaking levels again before Brady got hurt.

 

A signifcant dropoff was to be expected anyway. I don't see why Moss can't still reach double digit TDs. Cassel will be best served using his best target. Like TD Ryans said, its not a bad idea throwing it in Moss' vicinity and letting him go get it.

[surferskin 30]

it's hard to say Bouve but certainly neither are "better off".

The team simply isn't going to score as much with Cassel as they would with Brady.

 

IMO, Cassel is more likely to force the ball to Moss than Brady would.

There may be more opportunity at a lower success rate.

 

As for Welker, it takes a lot of confidence to thread the ball into the tight spots that Welker works into. There's a lot of precision and confidence needed there and I don't know if we'll see it right away.

 

Throwing it high/deep where only Moss has a chance to make a play is "safe".

Hitting your dump off RB and check-downs is "safe".

Zipping it into the guys working the slot and running precise inside routes is focking scary when the #1 thing drilled into your head all week is, "don't turn the ball over".

 

Right now, NE has to be thinking that their main goal is to be in every game come 4th quarter. Don't do anything stupid or risky, make sure we're in every game in the final quarter, and rely on the veteran players/coach to properly manage the clock and win the chess match at the end. This is how NE used to have to win game. This is why Vinatieri became a HOF kicker. No more SuperBowls and Record Books, it's back to basics.

 

The accuracy and timing Brady had Welker can't be understated.

[Busted by the Feds 9]

How about the reverse effect ? Does having Moss and Welker make Cassel decent to start ? I know he's not going to be Brady, but he still has Brady's weapons and that line protecting him ?

 

Maybe he moves up to the Garrard, Schaub, A. Rodgers level ?

[tabris 1]

I think this helps Welker and hurts Moss.

 

The other posters must be drinking the Cassell kool-aid. The deep passing is not going to continue on every drive/series. If anything, the underneath routes will pick up and that is Welker's territory. Also, Watson might go up in value.

[mhaggy 0]

Welker's value is severely neutered. I would expect a drop off to pre-Brady levels. I'm just glad that I was able to dump him as part of a package in the one league I own him in.

 

I think you're underestimating how much of Welker's value was tied up in Brady tabris. Welker has some good skills but he needs an extremely good QB to take advantage of them.

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

i doubt teams blitz any extra... considering heavy blitz was the gameplan after every team saw what the g men did to brady in the SB.

 

as far as moss and welker's value... Moss' will drop a bit but Welker may completely dissapear for games.

 

moss will still be a weekly start just roll back your expectations for him from 20 ppg to 14 or 15

 

welker may throw up a 0 or he may throw up something nice with alot of short catches...

[robertd52 0]

Here is the #s after 1 week.

 

Brady threw 11 passes before going down. 5 were to welker, 3 to moss.

 

Cassel threw 18 more passes to finish the game. 5 were to Welker, 4 were to moss. surprisingly 5 were to Morris as well.

 

What that tells me is that Cassel DIDNT just start chucking it to moss. It also tells me that the pats might play more conservitive and dump to backs more.

 

Clearly all are gonna take some hit here (except maybe morris), but maybe Welker wont get killed as much as it seems initially...

[Cstriker 2]

Having Moss and co will give Cassel a small edge but he is still a rookie. But Moss is average when the QB is not a brady or a culpepper (in his prime). Remember moss as a raider? ughhh killed my season.

[TD Ryan2 315]

I think this helps Welker and hurts Moss.

 

The other posters must be drinking the Cassell kool-aid. The deep passing is not going to continue on every drive/series. If anything, the underneath routes will pick up and that is Welker's territory. Also, Watson might go up in value.

 

couple of things:

 

#1. IMO, what Brady and Welker did together is more difficult than what Brady and Moss did. Moss has every physical attribute needed in a WR and can make life easier for any QB. "Just throw it up for Moss" is a strategy that any QB under pressure could reasonably employ. In fact, we saw Cassel employ it twice this Sunday when he threw a bomb to Moss from his own 1 yard line AND when he threw a TD pass that would have been an end-zone throw away if any WR other than Randy Moss was there to haul it in from 12' up.

 

#2. NE has claimed that nothing in their offensive philosophy will change with Cassel. Yes, it's one thing to say it and another to do it, but they still spent 60% of their time in 3+ WR sets on Sunday. The idea behind sticking with Cassell is that he's the guy that's been in the system for years and knows it.

 

What made Brady so spectacular was his ability to see/read where every WR was in a flash, scan the whole field and make the right decision. It isn't likely that Cassel will be able to do that; he won't work through his progressions as fast as Brady and will likely rely on his first read (Moss) or his safety read (RB dumpoffs) more while failing to see #2/#3/#4 as easily or as often. And in this offense, #2/#3/#4 are Welker/Gaf/Watson or D Thomas.

[joeyleroy 0]

What happened yesterday with Cassel?

 

Moss had 116 yards and a TD.

Welker had 51 yards

 

I know that was the Chiefs but it was Cassel coming off the bench and probably not too prepared since Brady hasn't missed a game in forever.

Maybe he was prepared but he was not expecting it.

 

Now he'll be preparing every week with the starters which can only make him better.

 

I think with that O-line and those weapons he will be pretty good. And I think Moss could still have 16 TD's

 

I think Welker will be hurt more than Moss

 

Just my opinion...

[RicemanX 20]

When you lose one of the best QBs ever, it's obvious the WRs stats will be going down.

 

But will they be considered busts? I don't think so. I still believe Moss and Welker will put up some decent numbers.

 

I would even think this is a good time to trade for Welker.

[Spec7ral 6]

I heard Randy talking in a post-game interview about his excitement when the fans were cheering because he was hoping it was Brady coming out of the tunnel to come back into the game. Pretty sure that is some harsh sh!t to be saying, regardless of whether he is thinking it or not. It's not much of a vote of confidence for Cassel. If Moss goes a couple games less than 100 yds and no TDs I think he stops trying. That said, I also think that Bellichek realizes that Moss is now his most important threat so he needs to keep him happy. But if Cassel doesn't have the arm and accuracy, play-calling might not matter too much if the INTs start raining down.

 

Welker will take punishment across the middle and I don't think he has the attitude problem that Moss does, so, as long as Cassel has a bit of zip on his short passes, I think he is still productive. Not AS productive as were Brady in, but still fantasy relevant. I wouldn't trade either of them right now because it looks desperate and you won't get much for them. I would wait a few weeks and see what this backup can do. He's been holding the clipboard for long enough, he should at least be familiar with it. And having only one backup QB, as stupid as it was, does mean they are confident in his abilities.

 

BB will try to get Moss a TD early in games to keep him happy, then it will go to screens, more running gmae than before and basically a WC offense. I think we see Moss tearing a strip out of Cassel, around week 5 or so, on the sidelines after an INT. I think we see Cassel shed a tear. Then we pan to BB and him massaging the new backup QB while he is poring over the playbook. Then the NFL sheds a tear because their Pats games ratings just went poopy-poops.

[rallo 132]

I agree with this. A new QB will rely on his big gun and won't have the vision to check off the other receivers.

 

it's true... one of the first drives where cassel started at his 2 yard line i believe moss had about 3 catches 65 yards and a TD...

 

granted one of the catches was a 50 yard prayer thrown by cassell who was under pressure... but i think that bodes well... if cassell in under pressure i think he trusts moss in a jump ball scenario (who wouldn't) and isn't afraid to wing it

 

i drafted moss very late in the first round... i didn't expect last years numbers... i was hoping for like 1,400 yds and 15 TDs...

 

i don't think he'll be too far off of that... maybe like 1,200 and 12-13 isn't out of the question...

 

wes welker owners should be a little nervous... because i'm not sure that there will be this many balls... a lot of people have been commenting how the gameplan didn't change that much when cassell went in... IMO they couldn't change the gameplan that much... but now they have time to prepare and you gotta think they will use maroney and morris now... but who knows... i guess we'll see how all of this speculation plays out the next 3 weeks before the bye

[FrankDaTank2 0]

Here is the #s after 1 week.

 

Brady threw 11 passes before going down. 5 were to welker, 3 to moss.

 

Cassel threw 18 more passes to finish the game. 5 were to Welker, 4 were to moss. surprisingly 5 were to Morris as well.

 

What that tells me is that Cassel DIDNT just start chucking it to moss. It also tells me that the pats might play more conservitive and dump to backs more.

 

Clearly all are gonna take some hit here (except maybe morris), but maybe Welker wont get killed as much as it seems initially...

No Cassel is not a rookie. A rookie does not have 3-4 years in a pro system as a backup. The guy knows the system, rookies are green, Cassel played all preseason, which at this point was a blessing in disguise, he is the Patriots best chance. Don't be suprised if Cassel plays very well. No Brady like, but >3,000 yrds 25 TDs would not suprise me.

[cribdog 0]

Moss is going to quit and pout and go back to his Raider productivity

[Mmueller 0]

FWIW Funston still has him at #8 on the big board.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?s...gboard-football

[Mmueller 0]

he also downgraded Welker to #45 and stated

 

'Moss not likely to be affected as much as Welker by QB change'

 

It was encouraging to see a 51 yard bomb and a TD in Cassells first game with Moss. Easy schedule. I'd rather have Moss than any other wideout not named TO.

[unclemercy 51]

he also downgraded Welker to #45 and stated

 

'Moss not likely to be affected as much as Welker by QB change'

 

It was encouraging to see a 51 yard bomb and a TD in Cassells first game with Moss. Easy schedule. I'd rather have Moss than any other wideout not named TO.

 

i was gonna house the dude above you and sing your praises, but you got it all covered like smog. good work... i liked seeing funston's board. i hadn't checked his take this year. thanks.

[skinsrule05 30]

Moss is going to quit and pout and go back to his Raider productivity

 

I couldn't argue against such a well supported statement so I just dropped moss to pick up a backup kicker.

[plasma george 52]

i cant see moss getting as many tds as he got last year

This is cutting edge vision....thanks for helping out.

 

Seriously,

I think Moss has evolved waaay past his attitude and childlike behavior in Oakland.

He now has an enitre team/city on his shoulders and I think he will step up, be the mature player he's blossomed into in New England.

 

If not, Bellicheat will see to it his career will have ended when Brady took that hit.

[PatsfanGiantsHater 0]

Moss is going to quit and pout and go back to his Raider productivity

Your an idiot, Oakland had no weapons and a horrible system. Its a new Moss and he changed under Bellicheck which alot of players seem to do.

 

He is a captain on the Patriots this year and will make it a point to win.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

The pats will run the ball a lot more over the next few weeks. All of the Pats receivers should be affected in a big way without Brady. I mean, who are you guys kidding to think Moss and Welker will even be close to where they were last year. I see 30-40% in fantasy point reduction this year.

[PatsfanGiantsHater 0]

The pats will run the ball a lot more over the next few weeks. All of the Pats receivers should be affected in a big way without Brady. I mean, who are you guys kidding to think Moss and Welker will even be close to where they were last year. I see 30-40% in fantasy point reduction this year.

 

 

 

No one expected Moss to duplicate what he did last year, a drop off was expected. Pats will not change the game plan that drastically, they don't become a run only team over night.

 

6 116 td isnt that big of a drop off if you ask me

 

Projected 96 1856 19.3 51 16

[TD Ryan2 315]

The pats will run the ball a lot more over the next few weeks. All of the Pats receivers should be affected in a big way without Brady. I mean, who are you guys kidding to think Moss and Welker will even be close to where they were last year. I see 30-40% in fantasy point reduction this year.

 

#1. I agree that NE will run the ball more. But they would have likely run the ball more this year anyways. Part of the reason they didn't run as much last year was because at one point, they simply didn't have anyone to run the ball: Maroney was hurt, Morris was hurt... guys like Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel were the primary ball carriers and Kevin Faulk was was getting far more touches than NE would like.

They have kept 5 RBs on the roster (with L Jordan now on the team) and they did so before the Brady injury. Bottom line here is that NE was going to run more this year if for no other reason that they are prepared to have one healthy primary RB for a full season. They don't care whether it's Maroney, Morris, or Jordan so long as one is available. Eckel has been cut, H Evans is a FB/situational player, K Faulk is a 3rd down/situiational player.

 

#2. 30 - 40% reduction from last year? or 30 - 40% off of this year's projections?

Either way, nobody is expecting Moss to be what he was last year OR what he could have been with a healthy Brady.

But that still leaves room for him to be a 70+ catch, 10+ TD WR. I think most were projecting him to be a 90+ catch, 14 - 16 TD WR with Brady this year.

Welker, on the other hand, may only catch 60 or 70 this year as opposed to the 100+. He's not an endzone threat; his fantasy value is tied directly to his catches and yardage and I'd expect both to be down significantly.

[PackYourNut 47]

it's hard to say Bouve but certainly neither are "better off".

The team simply isn't going to score as much with Cassel as they would with Brady.

 

IMO, Cassel is more likely to force the ball to Moss than Brady would.

There may be more opportunity at a lower success rate.

 

As for Welker, it takes a lot of confidence to thread the ball into the tight spots that Welker works into. There's a lot of precision and confidence needed there and I don't know if we'll see it right away.

 

Throwing it high/deep where only Moss has a chance to make a play is "safe".

Hitting your dump off RB and check-downs is "safe".

Zipping it into the guys working the slot and running precise inside routes is focking scary when the #1 thing drilled into your head all week is, "don't turn the ball over".

 

Right now, NE has to be thinking that their main goal is to be in every game come 4th quarter. Don't do anything stupid or risky, make sure we're in every game in the final quarter, and rely on the veteran players/coach to properly manage the clock and win the chess match at the end. This is how NE used to have to win games. This is why Vinatieri became a HOF kicker. No more SuperBowls and Record Books, it's back to basics.

 

Spot on!