stonewall 647 Posted June 30, 2013 Sure, he is not getting any younger and Ponder is not Rodgers. However, with Harvin gone and ADP keeping defenses as honest as Abe, he just seems like a steal at his current ADP of 7.03. He keeps falling to me in mocks and I can't imagine a better WR2 or probably even WR3. What am I missing.....any thoughts? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TwentyFourSeven 23 Posted June 30, 2013 Sure, he is not getting any younger and Ponder is not Rodgers. However, with Harvin gone and ADP keeping defenses as honest as Abe, he just seems like a steal at his current ADP of 7.03. He keeps falling to me in mocks and I can't imagine a better WR2 or probably even WR3. What am I missing.....any thoughts? As a WR3 yes I think he'd be fine. I want to like him, but I'm having a very tough time with Ponder as his QB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ralphster 274 Posted June 30, 2013 For the 7th round he's a good value, despite age and Ponder. There are other WRs right around there (DX, J Jones, Shorts, Stevie, Britt) that I would be equally happy rolling the dice with though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,063 Posted June 30, 2013 Old, on the decline the past two seasons, and just switched to a team with a crappy QB. I'll pass. Even if the "value" is good I don't see any upside. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrG 103 Posted June 30, 2013 Chasing a falling knife Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted June 30, 2013 Valid points, but I've seen enough "declining" WR's get a surge of rejuvenation after a change of scenery, that I think I will roll the dice if his ADP remains in the value range. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he plays GB twice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rholio 340 Posted June 30, 2013 There are other choices in his range that I prefer, but have no problem with Jennings at his current ADP. He's a WR 3, and makes a good WR 4 in smaller leagues. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BobSanders_33 127 Posted June 30, 2013 I wouldn't call Jennings a value when there are several receivers being drafted behind him like DX, Britt, Hilton, De Jacskon, that will outscore him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 1, 2013 Right now he's way underrated. Ignore those who mention decline. He's only 29. In terms of raw ability, he's a 2nd round receiver. Ponder takes him down quite a bit from there, but not as much as his current ADP (70s) suggests. And what happens if Ponder actually continues where he left off late last year? Unlikely, but it's possible. There's a nice bit of upside there. And very little downside. I love him as a WR3. Sometimes I wish I drafted this early. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted July 1, 2013 Right now he's way underrated. Ignore those who mention decline. He's only 29. Sometimes I wish I drafted this early. Amen to that. In fact, perhaps early drafting is the edge that one needs in this age of information that evens things out so much. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 I like him, but i'd be far more comfortable with someone like shorts or waiting a little later and taking someone like gordon, maclin, or TY Hilton... like others have said... Ponder is a huge -... and Jennings isn't going to be as involved in the offense as percy was... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
svtballa 8 Posted July 2, 2013 I like him, but i'd be far more comfortable with someone like shorts or waiting a little later and taking someone like gordon, maclin, or TY Hilton... like others have said... Ponder is a huge -... and Jennings isn't going to be as involved in the offense as percy was... but you like old man vick and Weeden more than ponder Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 but you like old man vick and Weeden more than ponder yes Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,063 Posted July 2, 2013 Right now he's way underrated. Ignore those who mention decline. He's only 29. In terms of raw ability, he's a 2nd round receiver. Ponder takes him down quite a bit from there, but not as much as his current ADP (70s) suggests. And what happens if Ponder actually continues where he left off late last year? Unlikely, but it's possible. There's a nice bit of upside there. And very little downside. I love him as a WR3. Sometimes I wish I drafted this early. Where he left off last year was basically being benched for Joe Webb in the playoffs. Yeah, I know he had an owie. But do you think there's any way Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers misses that game? Or Joe Flacco for that matter? Nope. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 2, 2013 Where he left off last year was basically being benched for Joe Webb in the playoffs. Yeah, I know he had an owie. But do you think there's any way Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers misses that game? Or Joe Flacco for that matter? Nope. Pretty hard to play QB when you can't throw the ball [insert Tebow joke here]. I'm no fan of Ponder.....but Leslie Frazier is. If Ponder could have been anywhere near effective, he would have been out there. As for Jennings, I think he'll be a good WR3 at best. Some good games with a whole bunch of meh throughout the season. Ponder still locks on to receivers.....or runs when his first read isn't open. He loved to throw it 4 yards to Percy....then watch him turn it up field for a good chunk of yards. I just don't see him being able to get Jennings the ball on a consistent basis. Think I'd prefer some other receivers with higher upside at that point in the draft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 I like him, but i'd be far more comfortable with someone like shorts Shorts over Greg Jennings. This is why I love playing fantasy football. All anyone can remember is last year, the least important factor of all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 Where he left off last year was basically being benched for Joe Webb in the playoffs. Yeah, I know he had an owie. But do you think there's any way Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers misses that game? Or Joe Flacco for that matter? Nope. Benched? He finished the last quarter of the season 4-0, over 600 yards, 5 TDs and 1 interception. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
We Tigers 71 Posted July 2, 2013 In his first few years in the league, Jennings made a living on short and mid-range crossing routes that he'd then take a long way after the catch, honestly not too far off from how Harvin thrived in Minnesota. With the dearth of other receiving options, I think he can still be a 70+ reception guy in Minnesota. The problem, of course, is that Minnesota was 31st in passing yardage last season, with under 2800 yards. I think the distinct possibility of Jennings getting something like 70 catches but still only putting up 900/4 will limit his ADP from rising too high. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 Shorts over Greg Jennings. This is why I love playing fantasy football. All anyone can remember is last year, the least important factor of all. So... a 30 yr old WR who's production has declined 3 straight years... who now is adjusting to a new team/offense with a horrible QB (if Ponder even gets the nod over Cassell) Vs an up and coming WR who had a great year last year, and is getting rave reviews by his head coach in camp. Yeah, i'll take shorts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoadLizard 73 Posted July 2, 2013 Chasing a falling knife I agree - his heyey has long passed. Even if he stayed with GB Id be leary of him. Throw in the fact that Minny runs ADP near the gola line and Ponder is lame and you have a recipe for a 450 yard, 3 TD season. Jennings as a fantasy player is DONE. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,063 Posted July 2, 2013 Benched? He finished the last quarter of the season 4-0, over 600 yards, 5 TDs and 1 interception. Over 600 yards in 4 games? My mistake then; he clearly set the world on fire Not trying to be a jerk, but Ponder sucks. There's no debating it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 So... a 30 yr old WR who's production has declined 3 straight years... who now is adjusting to a new team/offense with a horrible QB (if Ponder even gets the nod over Cassell) Vs an up and coming WR who had a great year last year, and is getting rave reviews by his head coach in camp. Yeah, i'll take shorts Go for it. But one thing you should probably be aware of: receivers don't decline because of age at 30, or even 32. Jennings is 29. Further, he was not in decline the last "3 straight years." He made the Pro Bowl in both 2010 and 2011, averaging over 10 TDs per season, missing in 2012 only because of injury. I won the first of two straight Super Bowls largely because of a hugely talented receiver named Steve Smith, who everyone forgot about in 2011 because he was hurt the year before and had a question mark at QB. Jennings will be Steve Smith 2. Everyone always forgets about the most important factor of all: talent. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 Over 600 yards in 4 games? My mistake then; he clearly set the world on fire Not trying to be a jerk, but Ponder sucks. There's no debating it. This... you know you aren't good when matt cassell comes to town, and rumors about him getting the starting job start to surface... i mean... he's matt focking cassell Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 Over 600 yards in 4 games? My mistake then; he clearly set the world on fire Not trying to be a jerk, but Ponder sucks. There's no debating it. Anything over that and the coaching staff would've been fired. They have pretty good back there in Minnesota. Can't remember the name. Ponder is young. Whether he sucks or not is still up for debate. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 4,063 Posted July 2, 2013 The fact that they have a pretty good RB is one of the main reasons Ponder sucks. Facing 8 man fronts every down and he can't get more than 150 yards and 1 TD per game during his supposed "hot streak"? Forget about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 Go for it. But one thing you should probably be aware of: receivers don't decline because of age at 30, or even 32. Jennings is 29. Further, he was not in decline the last "3 straight years." He made the Pro Bowl in both 2010 and 2011, averaging over 10 TDs per season, missing in 2012 only because of injury. I won the first of two straight Super Bowls largely because of a hugely talented receiver named Steve Smith, who everyone forgot about in 2011 because he was hurt the year before and had a question mark at QB. Jennings will be Steve Smith 2. Everyone always forgets about the most important factor of all: talent. i think that we will just have to agree to disagree on this one... i don't think jennings is primed for a good year (but you may be right)... His stats for the last 3 years 2010 76 rec 1265 yds 12 TDs 2011 67 rec 949 yds 9 TDS 2012 36 rec 366 yds 4 TDs I realize his decline has been partly due to injury, but it is still a decline. I'm not saying that jennings is not a good WR... but with his situation this year i will stay away from him unless i can get a deal a round or two later. (I don't think that this will happen because of his name value) Off the cuff prediction 70ish rec 800 yds 5TDs... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 i think that we will just have to agree to disagree on this one... i don't think jennings is primed for a good year (but you may be right)... His stats for the last 3 years 2010 76 rec 1265 yds 12 TDs 2011 67 rec 949 yds 9 TDS 2012 36 rec 366 yds 4 TDs I realize his decline has been partly due to injury, but it is still a decline. I'm not saying that jennings is not a good WR... but with his situation this year i will stay away from him unless i can get a deal a round or two later. (I don't think that this will happen because of his name value) Off the cuff prediction 70ish rec 800 yds 5TDs... I think most long term fantasy players know when to watch for age-related decline. At 29, obviously, this isn't it. He missed most of 2012 and 3 games in 2011 due to injury. You can argue he's injury prone, but not in decline. He's on a run-first team with a young, inconsistent QB. I'm not expecting Calvin Johnson here, but mind his talent, and the fact that he will be the undisputed #1 receiver for a team that doesn't have any trouble moving the football. I'm guessing more 85, 1100, 10 TDs. And he will likely be my #3 or #4 receiver. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 148 Posted July 2, 2013 I think most long term fantasy players know when to watch for age-related decline. At 29, obviously, this isn't it. He missed most of 2012 and 3 games in 2011 due to injury. You can argue he's injury prone, but not in decline. He's on a run-first team with a young, inconsistent QB. I'm not expecting Calvin Johnson here, but mind his talent, and the fact that he will be the undisputed #1 receiver for a team that doesn't have any trouble moving the football. I'm guessing more 85, 1100, 10 TDs. And he will likely be my #3 or #4 receiver. Wow those #s are optimistic. Ponder tossed 18 tds and 2,953 yards last year. That would be 55% of the tds thrown last year and 37% of the yards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthernVike 2,100 Posted July 2, 2013 I like him, but i'd be far more comfortable with someone like shorts or waiting a little later and taking someone like gordon, maclin, or TY Hilton... like others have said... Ponder is a huge -... and Jennings isn't going to be as involved in the offense as percy was... Who else are they going to throw to? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted July 2, 2013 Wow those #s are optimistic. Ponder tossed 18 tds and 2,953 yards last year. That would be 55% of the tds thrown last year and 37% of the yards. It's only optimistic if you think Ponder is not going to progress at all in his 3rd season. And considering how hellbent they are about going downfield this year, I think that's unlikely. For Ponder I expect a notch under typical 3rd year QB (Ryan, Flacco) numbers. Something like 24, 14 and 3200. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 2, 2013 Who else are they going to throw to? They looked for interesting ways to get Harvin the ball... lining him up as an RB/QB... moving him all around the field... hell, he got quite a few carries in his tenure in Minn... Jennings isn't as dynamic offensively as Harvin, so i don't think he will put up near the numbers harvin did... I'm not saying he's going to have a horrible year or anything, i just don't see him outproducing Shorts/Hilton/Gordon/Maclin type players Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted July 2, 2013 Chasing a falling knife Catch it by the handle.......... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrG 103 Posted July 2, 2013 29 is not old for a wr. But groin problems tend to re occur An ok upside wr3 value but I would not draft w high expectations and a lousy qb Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Little Big Head 6 Posted July 3, 2013 I like him a lot as WR3 on a team. Something like 75 900 6 is what I'm thinking Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stewburtx8 67 Posted July 3, 2013 He's perfectly fine as a WR3 being drafted in the 7th round. If his name value starts pushing him in to the 6th round or earlier, I'm not a fan. I just don't see much upside with Christian Ponder throwing him the ball. When Jennings was a stud, he was putting up 16+ yards per reception. He was never much of a high reception guy. I just don't think Ponder will give him the chance to make the big plays he used to be able to make with Rodgers throwing him the ball. 65-800-6 is about where I'd project him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 139 Posted July 3, 2013 He's perfectly fine as a WR3 being drafted in the 7th round. If his name value starts pushing him in to the 6th round or earlier, I'm not a fan. I just don't see much upside with Christian Ponder throwing him the ball. When Jennings was a stud, he was putting up 16+ yards per reception. He was never much of a high reception guy. I just don't think Ponder will give him the chance to make the big plays he used to be able to make with Rodgers throwing him the ball. 65-800-6 is about where I'd project him. I think most long term fantasy players know when to watch for age-related decline. At 29, obviously, this isn't it. He missed most of 2012 and 3 games in 2011 due to injury. You can argue he's injury prone, but not in decline. He's on a run-first team with a young, inconsistent QB. I'm not expecting Calvin Johnson here, but mind his talent, and the fact that he will be the undisputed #1 receiver for a team that doesn't have any trouble moving the football. I'm guessing more 85, 1100, 10 TDs. And he will likely be my #3 or #4 receiver. I hope that jennings hits for you, as if you do get him as your #3 WR he could definintely be a great boom/bust candidate. I would temper my expectations for 85 receptions, as he has only eclipsed 80 receptions 3 times in his career, and only caught 10 TDs twice (both times with a QB better than Ponder). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Serpent 51 Posted July 5, 2013 He's perfectly fine as a WR3 being drafted in the 7th round. If his name value starts pushing him in to the 6th round or earlier, I'm not a fan. I just don't see much upside with Christian Ponder throwing him the ball. When Jennings was a stud, he was putting up 16+ yards per reception. He was never much of a high reception guy. I just don't think Ponder will give him the chance to make the big plays he used to be able to make with Rodgers throwing him the ball. 65-800-6 is about where I'd project him. It's the NFL, any QB outside of Mark Sanchez can at least get one of his WRs to 1k yards. The TDs are always iffy, but 8-10 is not exactly unreasonable. Someone has to catch them after all. In the 7th round there are few picks that are sure things, and Jennings is one of your better options. The later on in the draft you get the more you want to gamble for high risk high reward types. Early on in the draft you want to lower your risk. The 7th round on are guys that you should never hesitate to cut if you are confident in your fantasy abilities, with the knowledge that it's a crapshoot anyway. I suspect Jennings will start shooting up the boards as we get closer to the season starting. Once he shows he's healthy and puts up some pointless stats in preseason he will wind up around a 3rd round pick or so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stewburtx8 67 Posted July 6, 2013 It's the NFL, any QB outside of Mark Sanchez can at least get one of his WRs to 1k yards. The TDs are always iffy, but 8-10 is not exactly unreasonable. Someone has to catch them after all. In the 7th round there are few picks that are sure things, and Jennings is one of your better options. The later on in the draft you get the more you want to gamble for high risk high reward types. Early on in the draft you want to lower your risk. The 7th round on are guys that you should never hesitate to cut if you are confident in your fantasy abilities, with the knowledge that it's a crapshoot anyway. I suspect Jennings will start shooting up the boards as we get closer to the season starting. Once he shows he's healthy and puts up some pointless stats in preseason he will wind up around a 3rd round pick or so. A much more dynamic WR in Percy Harvin never reached 1000 yards receiving in Minnesota. Granted, he was on pace this past season. But Harvin was more of a possession, slot, WR screen, type receiver. Ponder just had to get it in his hands quickly. That is not really Greg Jennings game. Minnesota is a run first team. When they feel they have run it enough, they just run it some more. There were times last year that Minnesota refused to let Ponder throw the ball down the field. I'd be pretty surprised if Greg Jennings eclipses 1000 yards receiving. If Greg Jennings becomes a 3rd round pick, he will be a gigantic reach in my opinion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Serpent 51 Posted July 6, 2013 A much more dynamic WR in Percy Harvin never reached 1000 yards receiving in Minnesota. Granted, he was on pace this past season. But Harvin was more of a possession, slot, WR screen, type receiver. Ponder just had to get it in his hands quickly. That is not really Greg Jennings game. Minnesota is a run first team. When they feel they have run it enough, they just run it some more. There were times last year that Minnesota refused to let Ponder throw the ball down the field. I'd be pretty surprised if Greg Jennings eclipses 1000 yards receiving. If Greg Jennings becomes a 3rd round pick, he will be a gigantic reach in my opinion. In regards to Harvin, that was mostly because the guy was always injured. In 2011 he just needed 33 more yards to crack 1k, which he probably would have gotten in the 2 games he missed (and probably he left early a few others). Plunger will probably at least be able to throw a little better this year with everyone and their mother trying (and failing) to stop AP. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
