So tell me who will be the fantasy MVP this year and why

[Teekizzy 2]

I have the #1 overall pick in a 12 team redraft league, no keepers. 1 PPR.

 

I am not interested in selecting the #1 ranked player on the board right now. I want to select the guy who will be the FF MVP at the end of the year. The #1 pick sucks in that every player has a downside. There are no more no-brainer #1 picks like Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, or Priest Holmes. So I want to find this year's Antonio Brown/Leveon Bell.

 

Obviously it's an impossibility to figure it out for sure. But I think it's an interesting discussion.

 

Brown and Bell's downsides (other than Bell's suspension) are the fact NFL defenses adapt. Rarely do dominant offenses stay dominant in this league, unless they continuously evolve.

 

Charles? Can he stay healthy? I like the addition of Maclin in that offense to open things up a bit. Kelce's only gonna get better, too.

 

The guy I have my eye on now is Odell Beckham. I know he's touted highly by FFT. Not much changed in the offseason, and his upside may have not been reached yet. The addition of a (potentially) healthy Cruz might help him, too.

 

Right now, I'm leaning toward picking the safe Antonio Brown. But I'm not enthralled with the pick.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

CJ Anderson.

 

Why?

 

Because i drafted him in round 1.

[bandrus1 413]

AP

[DaBeerz 88]

CJ Anderson.

 

Why?

 

Because i drafted him in round 1.

 

I felt like CJ will get hurt and Denver will be back to the same old RBBC that they always seem to run with. I feel like Hillman and Ball are going to vulture carries. CJ was productive when healthy though.

[DaBeerz 88]

AP

 

Wouldn't surprise me if he were comeback player of the year. Not that he'll win an award for that, due to the circumstances of his departure, but in FF circles he will be a stud.

[Teekizzy 2]

Who has the least amount of barriers to becoming the fantasy MVP, in other words.

 

CJ Anderson clearly has a stable behind him and I find it hard to believe Denver with give him the amount of carries it takes to be dominant.

 

Looking back, fantasy MVPs (completely subjective, I know) were not drafted first overall.

 

2014: MVP Bell/Brown, #1 ADP McCoy

2013: MVP Charles, #1 ADP Peterson

2012: MVP Peterson/Manning, #1 ADP Foster

2011: MVP Rice, #1 ADP Peterson

[Gladiators 1,904]

There are counter-arguments for everyone......injury history, running style (sort of goes with injury history), only done it once, coaching changes, offensive line changes, crappy QB, schedule, general offensive philosophy, age, new team, and I'm sure I'm missing others. Who has the least risk and greatest potential reward? Not sure, I don't have a crystal ball.

[Teekizzy 2]

There are counter-arguments for everyone......injury history, running style (sort of goes with injury history), only done it once, coaching changes, offensive line changes, crappy QB, schedule, general offensive philosophy, age, new team, and I'm sure I'm missing others. Who has the least risk and greatest potential reward? Not sure, I don't have a crystal ball.

 

The only thing that seems "sure" is the fact the #1 ADP player will not be the best player in fantasy football.

 

That's why I'm trying to make my best guess. There are 22 picks between my first and second picks. I want my #1 overall to really count.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

 

I felt like CJ will get hurt and Denver will be back to the same old RBBC that they always seem to run with. I feel like Hillman and Ball are going to vulture carries. CJ was productive when healthy though.

 

Okay

[Arsenal 3]

Brandin Cooks

[Teekizzy 2]

Brandin Cooks

 

Why?

 

Interesting thought, but I can't in actuality draft him #1 overall. With his ADP, I could theoretically get him in the second, though.

[Maulers1973 117]

When the Vikings had nothing.....................coming off an acl repair AP got his. Now they have talent in other places so that defenses can't just stack against him.

 

If I had the 1st selection, I would take AP every time.

[DaBeerz 88]

 

Okay

 

It's not that unreasonable of an assumption. CJ was hurt quite a bit last year. Denver has a lot of plug and play RB in that backfield. Look at the preseason stats, all 4 RB are getting about equal work, Hillman also out-produced CJ on the same amount of carries.

 

RUSHING STATISTICS Player Att Yds Yds/Att Long TD Ronnie Hillman 21 155 7.4 23 0 C.J. Anderson 20 81 4.1 14 0 Juwan Thompson 17 59 3.5 22 1 Montee Ball 16 41 2.6 12 0

 

I never said CJ sucks, I'm just saying he's far from the clear cut starter. He did produce some good games mid-season last year. I'd just be worried about the coaches wanting to work in Ball and Hillman vulturing his carries.

[Teekizzy 2]

When the Vikings had nothing.....................coming off an acl repair AP got his. Now they have talent in other places so that defenses can't just stack against him.

 

If I had the 1st selection, I would take AP every time.

 

Thanks for the input. Certainly something to consider.

[The Next Generation 10]

Luck. Best player in the NFL. Stacked offense. Suspect defense.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

ADP is kind of relative. It could be from someone drafted in round 5

[Gladiators 1,904]

ADP is kind of relative. It could be from someone drafted in round 5

 

Going by his #1 ranks list in post #6, 60% of the time the guy was drafted outside the first round. But then he says he's not going to take a player #1 if his ADP is in a spot that he can get at the 2/3 turn (or later). So, I guess he's just looking for who from the first round will produce the most points (relative to their position) but be least likely to bust. Don't we all wish we knew that?

[barber2309 26]

 

Why?

 

Interesting thought, but I can't in actuality draft him #1 overall. With his ADP, I could theoretically get him in the second, though.

Bell and Brown weren't either. If you want your best shot at this year's Antonio Brown, it is Cooks - great offense, growing role, taken at almost the same spot in this year's draft as Brown was last year. Not much not to like.

[weepaws 2,461]

J Jones .

[Mike Nice 40]

Matt Forte

 

Being severely undervalued in ppr.

[giraldi02 470]

I think for considerations of a fantasy MVP, you have to look past the obvious names that get drafted in the first two rounds.

 

QB: Romo. This isn't going to be a team that can rely on the running game the same way. That means the defense is more exposed to being on the field more. That means more points, and shootouts. I think Romo is criminally undervalued this season.

 

WR: Jordan Matthews. If everything goes the way Chip wants with that offense, Matthews is going to be an absolute stud. At his current ADP, he's perfect for nearly any route someone takes in the first two rounds. IMMENSE upside

RB: Karlos Williams. I don't trust LeSean McCoy to stay healthy this season. The Bills just got rid of the ONLY guy that was going to be a threat to the rookie this season.

 

TE: Gronk. Avoiding my early drafting recommendation for Gronk. With JT getting hurt (again), Kelce being potentially hurt, and the position already being so top-heavy, Gronk has a legitimate chance to be the biggest VBD pick ever. Anything after #6 in the first round should at least consider taking him.

K: Hocker. Saints. I'm honestly thinking this kid is last year's Cody Parkey. Indoor kicker. High powered offense. Yep.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

Doug Martin!

 

Jordan Matthews is another who could put up some really big numbers.

[loonecho 19]

AP

This

[wizbang 10]

When the Vikings had nothing.....................coming off an acl repair AP got his. Now they have talent in other places so that defenses can't just stack against him.

 

If I had the 1st selection, I would take AP every time.

 

And oh yeah, he has Norv a Turner as his OC. FFL RB stud producing OC machine meet stud NFL RB stud who has never played for a stud producer, let alone one of the machine variety. (Especially true in PPR)

[stonewall 647]

Luck. Best player in the NFL. Stacked offense. Suspect defense.

 

This is your answer....

[Mile High Magic 8]

Forsett

 

Trestman offense

[Kent 228]

CJ Anderson isn't coached by Mr.RBBC John Fox anymore folks. Get your heads out of the sand and recognize. Kubiak runs 3 down bell cow systems. He creates all fantasy world backs.

[Maulers1973 117]

I do look for Forsett to be HUGE in ppr. He is likely to get 80-90 rececptions at least.

[SexyRexy 60]

 

I felt like CJ will get hurt and Denver will be back to the same old RBBC that they always seem to run with. I feel like Hillman and Ball are going to vulture carries. CJ was productive when healthy though.

Ball might not even make the team. Hillman is looming as is juwan Thompson.

[nordwave 2]

If your league requires a TE then I have to go with Gronk, maybe even drafting him ahead of any WR.

WR is deep, with a large pack of guys that can potentially be big this year. TE is the opposite.

[DaBeerz 88]

Ball might not even make the team. Hillman is looming as is juwan Thompson.

 

That was my concern with drafting him. Too much chance of RBBC.

[Teekizzy 2]

Alright, I've made my decision.

 

I'll be drafting Eddie Lacy first overall in my draft tonight.

 

Stellar offense, big drop-off in talent to his backup, pass catcher, consistently top-tier. He's a safe pick, which I want with the #1, but also has the potential to dominate the league. I think his floor is RB5, and his ceiling is RB1.

 

Thanks for hearing me out.

[Kent 228]

Alright, I've made my decision.

 

I'll be drafting Eddie Lacy first overall in my draft tonight.

 

Stellar offense, big drop-off in talent to his backup, pass catcher, consistently top-tier. He's a safe pick, which I want with the #1, but also has the potential to dominate the league. I think his floor is RB5, and his ceiling is RB1.

 

Thanks for hearing me out.

I had Lacy last year. Not blown away.

[MDC 5,895]

I had Lacy last year. Not blown away.

Yeah me too. I think part of that was how slow he started the season. I drew the 3-14 pick this year and traded draft order down to 11 just so I wouldn't get stuck picking a guy like Lacy when high quality RB options were available later in the round.

[Teekizzy 2]

Again, I'm not depending on last year's stats. The previous year's stats should have some bearing upon the decision on who to draft, but it shouldn't be the be-all-end-all.

 

This is Lacy's third year in the league and I don't think we've seen his ceiling yet. He has factored more into the passing game each year he's been in the league (all of 2, albeit), and caught 4 TDs last year. Maybe Nelson's injury gives him more opportunity to catch the ball, maybe not.

 

I see him continuing to trend upward and like I said, his floor is pretty high.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Too many concussions for me over the years with Lacy.

[matrobw 3]

I'm really curious why more people have said Charles. I took him third overall this draft In a 10 team one point ppr. Lynch and Lacy went ahead of him so I had the option of AP and Bell. The injury to pouncey scared me off Bell. He is one one of the best centers in the league and pulls a lot to open holes for Bell so that and the 2 game suspension concerned me. AP has questions marks. Yes he is fresh but his o line isn't that great either but there is a lot of upside to him due to Teddy's progression and the return of Rudolph and having Johnson and Wallace to spread things out.

 

Charles seemed to me like a safer pick. His line has looked good in the preseason. He catches the ball and they actually have a couple outside threats which they haven't had in a long time with maclin and kelce. Sure he could get hurt but so can anyone who is physical.

 

Just my two cents

 

No definitive MVP candidates this year IMHO

[joneo 529]

At #1, I would not draft a QB. I personally feel AP will get 1800 yards and 15 TDs. With the emergence of Bridgewater, he'll also have 40 catches. He is my safest pick for what it's worth.

[IMMensaMind 459]

I agree with the Luck choice. I think he may throw 5600 and 37, with 4 rushing TDs thrown in for good measure.

[gasface 0]

Gronk because I dont think there is going to be a close second at TE (Sorry Graham owners, hes in a totally different system and will not put up the numbers he dropped in NO)