DFS: first NV, now NY

[Bills04 46]

Are people responding to Fan Duel's (not sure about Draft Kings') requests to e-mail the NY DA, about the cease and desist order? I put in my contact information, Tuesday night.

 

Thoughts on whether DFS is a game of "skill," versus chance?

 

This is my first season doing DFS, and I like it. I did DFS in lieu of a $-league. Got sick of always seeming to play one of the top-3 scoring teams, week after week, in the RANDOM team match-ups / schedule. Hmmmm - so, maybe even TRADITIONAL FF have some luck / chance to them, no?

[cyclone24 1,814]

Im for whatever gets the commercials every 12 seconds off my tv.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

Are people responding to Fan Duel's (not sure about Draft Kings') requests to e-mail the NY DA, about the cease and desist order? I put in my contact information, Tuesday night.

 

Thoughts on whether DFS is a game of "skill," versus chance?

 

This is my first season doing DFS, and I like it. I did DFS in lieu of a $-league. Got sick of always seeming to play one of the top-3 scoring teams, week after week, in the RANDOM team match-ups / schedule. Hmmmm - so, maybe even TRADITIONAL FF have some luck / chance to them, no?

Is that the distinction - skill vs. chance?

 

It is absolutely a game of probability. It is absolutely gambling, at least if you play with strangers. Data scientists (I am one)* are the house. Everyone else is a gambler.

 

Speaking from a background in clinical psychology...it is also gambling. FF can lead to almost compulsive behavior (it's VERY reinforcing when you refresh rotoworld or a beat writer's twitter account to find out that RB X is hurt/the new starter/etc), along with game-day reinforcement from following stats. However, the risk-reward rush from new line-ups, any week, as much as you want, very much fits the same profile as gambling behavior. This has probably nothing to do with its legal standing, but from a broader perspective, it is gambling.

 

*No, I don't play. Yes, the money would be nice; losing 10-20 hours/week for it would not, especially up front. I don't want to contribute to the problem, etc., etc. It's been a little tempting, but ultimately not a difficult call.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

As a side note, I like the fact that I can play FF without feeling like I am working. I will OCCASIONALLY check something as specific as how much a team runs the ball up the middle when making IDP decisions, but I don't do any analytics for FF.

 

I can't imagine doing DFS without performing analytics. Okay, I can, but I can't imagine expecting anything other than, over the long run, losing money.

[erikthebassist 41]

Is that the distinction - skill vs. chance?

 

It is absolutely a game of probability. It is absolutely gambling, at least if you play with strangers. Data scientists (I am one)* are the house. Everyone else is a gambler.

 

Speaking from a background in clinical psychology...it is also gambling. FF can lead to almost compulsive behavior (it's VERY reinforcing when you refresh rotoworld or a beat writer's twitter account to find out that RB X is hurt/the new starter/etc), along with game-day reinforcement from following stats. However, the risk-reward rush from new line-ups, any week, as much as you want, very much fits the same profile as gambling behavior. This has probably nothing to do with its legal standing, but from a broader perspective, it is gambling.

 

*No, I don't play. Yes, the money would be nice; losing 10-20 hours/week for it would not, especially up front. I don't want to contribute to the problem, etc., etc. It's been a little tempting, but ultimately not a difficult call.

Please explain, if you can, how data mining / analytics gives you a tangible advantage? I'm genuinely curious.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

It's gambling, evidenced by the fact that you wager on it. You have to get permission to have a gambling enterprise in NY. They did not get permission, and should be grateful they are not being prosecuted. They have no case.

[brotherbock 349]

As a non DFS player, fwiw, I think the idea of picking a good roster, like normal ffb, is skill. But the idea that you have to have hit on the most obscure set of longshot sleepers in order to really land in the big money?

 

Nope, that is luck.

[erikthebassist 41]

As a non DFS player, fwiw, I think the idea of picking a good roster, like normal ffb, is skill. But the idea that you have to have hit on the most obscure set of longshot sleepers in order to really land in the big money?

 

Nope, that is luck.

I agree, drafting and managing a team through an entire season and sometimes beyond to me is the hardpart. Negotiating trades, doing homework, setting reminders, making the gut call between two or three options, that's skill.

 

DFS seems way to much like bingo with football players. I dabbled a little, I live in NY, and I could give two shits if they make it illegal. Now, if they go after my seasonal leagues I'll grab my pitch fork and torch and meet ya in front of the state capital.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

Hopefully the people of NY keep voting these liberal idiots into office that are hellbent on controlling every aspect of your lives. Just keep them in your own state, and leave the rest of us to live our lives as we wish

[tanatastic 2,061]

All forms of FF is 85+% luck. The skill involved is the exact same as the skill involved in playing blackjack. Once you know the basics of blackjack like dont hit when dealer shows 12, dont hit on 16 unless the dealer shows 17+ blah blah etc you are as skilled as anyone. FF, once you know the basic theories of drafting (can still go wrong), know how to analyze matchups (most of the time are wrong) and can pay attention to the WW (wich will go wrong too) you are as skilled as anyone in the world. i know every player in the nfl back to front, I know what they had for breakfast, i know every matchup down to the yard and trends dating back a decade. I have, by far, the best team in my league...I just lost to the guy with the worst record and fewest points scored all season. Its completely random.

[Mike FF Today 608]

It's gambling, evidenced by the fact that you wager on it. You have to get permission to have a gambling enterprise in NY. They did not get permission, and should be grateful they are not being prosecuted. They have no case.

 

I'm not sure what you're basing these comments on but they absolutely have a case and don't need to feel grateful they haven't been prosecuted. They've operated lawfully in the state for years, but since DFS has grown to monetary point that attracts attention, states and uniformed lawmakers now want their piece of the pie, it's that simple. The skill / luck debate, "is it gambling or not" is simply an avenue for getting that accomplished.

 

The incredible grandstanding that was done by the NY Attorney General is his cease and desist letter is simply laughable. If regulation is what's needed, taking away your rights to play fantasy sports (which is exactly what the NY Attorney General wants to do) isn't the solution. Apply the proper controls, and let people decide if they want to play DFS or not and move on to something more important for the people of the state of New York.

[adamscountycolts 2]

 

I'm not sure what you're basing these comments on but they absolutely have a case and don't need to feel grateful they haven't been prosecuted. They've operated lawfully in the state for years, but since DFS has grown to monetary point that attracts attention, states and uniformed lawmakers now want their piece of the pie, it's that simple. The skill / luck debate, is it "gambling or not" is simply an avenue for getting that accomplished.

 

The incredible grandstanding that was done by the NY Attorney General is his cease and desist letter is simply laughable. If regulation is what's needed, taking away your rights to play fantasy sports (which is exactly what the NY Attorney General wants to do) isn't the solution.

I agree 100 percent with you Mike. States see it now as a means of more tax revenue to help ease the pressure of having to operate with lower budgets or whatever there reasoning may be. The bottom line is they want a piece of the big pie.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

Please explain, if you can, how data mining / analytics gives you a tangible advantage? I'm genuinely curious.

In a single game, thankfully, it doesn't (at least, not enough to be worthwhile - hurray!). It's all about entering dozens or hundreds of games, not just a few. Things you would note:

-factors that seem to influence player value (based on the data)

-How other players respond to player pricings, site rankings, etc. This would also help you differentiate data scientists (non-teams, i.e., lineups picked by someone's code, if it lets you do that) from targets .

-every data point you can think of for predicting performance (avoiding "overfitting," i.e. interpreting "noise" as "signal" is not too difficult - just takes a little time, and modern stats software does much of the work off the shelf).

-Create projection ranges for each player (algorithmically)

-Model the "risk" of those ranges (Sort of like, "What is Delanie Walker's floor in this game, 95% of the time? What's his ceiling?")

-Create models that maximize reward while minimizing the risk that you've now defined.

-At each step, model your entire analysis on part of the data ("training"), tweak it on another part ("validation"), and then test it against a data set not used for training or tweaking ("testing"). This last step is critical - your models need the opportunity to fail.

-Model the crowd and compare their performance to yours, as well as your ability to predict the crowd's choices with your crowd models.

Etc.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

 

I'm not sure what you're basing these comments on but they absolutely have a case and don't need to feel grateful they haven't been prosecuted. They've operated lawfully in the state for years, but since DFS has grown to monetary point that attracts attention, states and uniformed lawmakers now want their piece of the pie, it's that simple. The skill / luck debate, "is it gambling or not" is simply an avenue for getting that accomplished.

 

The incredible grandstanding that was done by the NY Attorney General is his cease and desist letter is simply laughable. If regulation is what's needed, taking away your rights to play fantasy sports (which is exactly what the NY Attorney General wants to do) isn't the solution. Apply the proper controls, and let people decide if they want to play DFS or not and move on to something more important for the people of the state of New York.

On the face of it, I don't question this. I'd be shocked if a politician called it gambling for a reasonable reason.

[erikthebassist 41]

Hopefully the people of NY keep voting these liberal idiots into office that are hellbent on controlling every aspect of your lives. Just keep them in your own state, and leave the rest of us to live our lives as we wish

 

The reason NY doesn't want people to gamble online is that they are licensing casinos in the state, and that is HUGE money, not to mention the kickback's they get from the indian reservation casino's. Online gambling is seen as competition. It has nothing to do with what's best for the people, but what's best for the few rich bastards that are paying off the politicians.

 

In other words, business as usual. This has nothing to do with liberal vs conservative or libertarian or anything like that, this is straight protecting the business interests of their rich cronies. If you think there is a political ideology that is immune to this age old mechanism present in every government known to man...

Edited November 12, 2015 by Mike FF Today
Cease and desist the name-calling.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

 

I'm not sure what you're basing these comments on but they absolutely have a case and don't need to feel grateful they haven't been prosecuted. They've operated lawfully in the state for years, but since DFS has grown to monetary point that attracts attention, states and uniformed lawmakers now want their piece of the pie, it's that simple. The skill / luck debate, "is it gambling or not" is simply an avenue for getting that accomplished.

 

The incredible grandstanding that was done by the NY Attorney General is his cease and desist letter is simply laughable. If regulation is what's needed, taking away your rights to play fantasy sports (which is exactly what the NY Attorney General wants to do) isn't the solution. Apply the proper controls, and let people decide if they want to play DFS or not and move on to something more important for the people of the state of New York.

The argument, as I do and many others see it, is if it's skill or luck. There's no doubt that it's gambling. And like I said, gambling in NY has to be approved. It wasn't. The rest is theatre, true, but the underlying fact is that they don't have a license to gamble in that state. Unless you contend that it's not gambling.

[brotherbock 349]

Hopefully the people of NY keep voting these liberal idiots into office that are hellbent on controlling every aspect of your lives. Just keep them in your own state, and leave the rest of us to live our lives as we wish

Dude, don't turn this political, or I'll have to talk about conservatives wanting to control my wife's vagina. How about we admit that both sides want to control different aspects of our lives, and just talk about football, real and fantasy

[erikthebassist 41]

In a single game, thankfully, it doesn't (at least, not enough to be worthwhile - hurray!). It's all about entering dozens or hundreds of games, not just a few. Things you would note:

-factors that seem to influence player value (based on the data)

-How other players respond to player pricings, site rankings, etc. This would also help you differentiate data scientists (non-teams, i.e., lineups picked by someone's code, if it lets you do that) from targets .

-every data point you can think of for predicting performance (avoiding "overfitting," i.e. interpreting "noise" as "signal" is not too difficult - just takes a little time, and modern stats software does much of the work off the shelf).

-Create projection ranges for each player (algorithmically)

-Model the "risk" of those ranges (Sort of like, "What is Delanie Walker's floor in this game, 95% of the time? What's his ceiling?")

-Create models that maximize reward while minimizing the risk that you've now defined.

-At each step, model your entire analysis on part of the data ("training"), tweak it on another part ("validation"), and then test it against a data set not used for training or tweaking ("testing"). This last step is critical - your models need the opportunity to fail.

-Model the crowd and compare their performance to yours, as well as your ability to predict the crowd's choices with your crowd models.

Etc.

none of this made a bit of sense to me but thank you for trying lol. I get how analytics in general can help predict trends and what not, but I don't see how all the data mining in the world is going to tell you that Ben watson was going to go off for 20+ points after never haven gotten double digits on the season, which is what propelled a few of the winners in the couple of games I entered that week.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The argument, as I do and many others see it, is if it's skill or luck. There's no doubt that it's gambling. And like I said, gambling in NY has to be approved. It wasn't. The rest is theatre, true, but the underlying fact is that they don't have a license to gamble in that state. Unless you contend that it's not gambling.

It wasnt technically considered gambling until the attorney general just declared it was. I like my work league. Its fun to get a new team each week.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

It wasnt technically considered gambling until the attorney general just declared it was. I like my work league. Its fun to get a new team each week.

When money is wagered it's gambling. Do you disagree with that?

[IGotWorms 3,315]

That's going to be problematic for FD and DK, being as they both have headquarters in NYC

[Cloaca du jour 2,064]

I dont see what the big deal is other than the $. The whole reason gambling on sports is a problem is the danger of on field corruption, point shaving, throwing games etc. i just dont see how this is a danger due to the inherent nature of how fantasy sports work. People just hate missing out on the cash cow. Hell, NFL owners are invested in these companies. Just another knee-jerk reaction. Although as somone said before. I just want my hobby back.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I want DFS to continue operating but let's call a spade a spade.

 

Placing money on a contest where the outcome is NOT guaranteed is gambling. And you look at the beating a lot of the DFS Pros took in Week 9. Maxduillary or whatever his name is was -41% on the week I think.

 

Also, this is NOT about protecting the public. It's about the greedy bas-turds in NY/NV wanting some tax revenue from it and/or get a palm greased in some way by these companies (DK/FD).

[Law 220]

The argument is as fundamental as Uber vs Traditional Taxis. Taxis file for a license. They are regulated. Uber drivers are not. Or were not. Governments said your can't do that. You want to drive, follow the rules and be regulated.

 

Casinos are heavily regulated. DFS sites currently are not. Governments are now saying they should be. Either all are or all are not regulated. There cannot be different rules for the same practice.

 

As for the game of skill or luck, the loophole created that currently allows DFS to operate, was written so as to not make millions of people who play traditional year-long fantasy all criminals by playing fantasy. The loophole was poorly written and overly broad and these sites have taken advantage. The governments are now catching up to close the loophole. The sites don't have to go away, they just have to play by the same rules as everyone else.

 

As for all fantasy be luck vs skill, I'm 30-6 across 4 leagues and am the leading scorer in each. This is the case year after year.

Clearly all luck.

 

 

Edit:

And let me add...

 

You notice all the states moving to ban DFS are all states with legalized (regulated) gambling? Not a coincidence. It goes again to the same rules for everyone. You wanna be a company who operates in a game of chance, play by the rules and be regulated and all is good.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

That's going to be problematic for FD and DK, being as they both have headquarters in NYC

Draft kings HQ is in Boston. They have an office in NY.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Also, this is NOT about protecting the public. It's about the greedy bas-turds in NY/NV wanting some tax revenue from it and/or get a palm greased in some way by these companies (DK/FD).

I really doubt this talking point, and frankly it just reeks of desperation from the pro-DFS crowd.

 

If it were true that the state just wanted tax revenues, wouldn't we see casinos on literally every corner all over the country? But you don't.

 

No I'm pretty sure this is about people thinking "hey, isn't gambling illegal? And doesn't this sure seem like a form of gambling?"

 

Their stupid focking commercials don't help things either. THEY portray it as gambling - put down a few bucks and get rich quick! So yeah, people were going to take notice.

 

 

But we can talk about state-run lotteries. Yes that sh1t is hypocritical

[erikthebassist 41]

Again, the problem is that online gambling is competition for local brick and mortar gambling, which pays big bucks to the politicians to get and stay in business. The government once again is being used to enforce the monopolies of the very few rich against the best interests / freedoms of the majority of the poor and middle class.

[erikthebassist 41]

State run lottories, state licensed casinos, hell, even the stock market is a pit of gambling destitute for most, but your employer will pressure you in to "contrubting" to your 401k every day, which is also gambling.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

When money is wagered it's gambling. Do you disagree with that?

Its not whether i believe it is considered gambling or not. If it was considered gambling right off the bat, then states would have required the gambling license right away. States are changing their stance on it. Even if they never had a stance in the first place, not many people cared enough to push the issue to this degree. Like i said, now it is starting to be LEGALLY considered gambling. States dont usually hit up ol Beernuts and ask him if an enterprise should be considered gambling.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

State run lottories, state licensed casinos, hell, even the stock market is a pit of gambling destitute for most, but your employer will pressure you in to "contrubting" to your 401k every day, which is also gambling.

401k is not gambling. We have a guaranteed option in ours for risk averse people.

[erikthebassist 41]

401k is not gambling. We have a guaranteed option in ours for risk averse people.

That's nice for you but when the market crashed in 2008 people who were at retirement age either had to wait it out or take a huge vs what they'd invested. Not all plans have a guaranteed option.

[Kevinv86 1]

My main question is.... How can you make DFS legal and not things like online poker.... Now i think both are a game of skill and both should be legal. But the reason online poker got shut down was because the government wasn't getting its cut.... AKA why DFS is now getting attacked.

[Quickolas1 80]

The reason NY doesn't want people to gamble online is that they are licensing casinos in the state, and that is HUGE money, not to mention the kickback's they get from the indian reservation casino's. Online gambling is seen as competition. It has nothing to do with what's best for the people, but what's best for the few rich bastards that are paying off the politicians.

 

In other words, business as usual. This has nothing to do with liberal vs conservative or libertarian or anything like that, this is straight protecting the business interests of their rich cronies. If you think there is a political ideology that is immune to this age old mechanism present in every government known to man...

 

/ thread over.

Democrats get big money from vested interests and make/change laws for those people.

Republicans get big money from vested interests and make/change laws for those people.

 

That is "politics."

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Having a stack of money and an algorithm is not skill.

[Maulers1973 117]

I don't think it should be outlawed, but definitely regulated. The GPP tourneys that allow 500 entries is a joke! It's like letting the pros come to the poker table and play 20 hands to your one.

 

Add in the obvious corruption and scandal between FD and DK, and you can see that regulation is necessary. It's their own stupid recklessness that has brought this scrutiny to them. If they would just operate on the up and up, there likely wouldn't be much attention on them at all.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Again, the problem is that online gambling is competition for local brick and mortar gambling, which pays big bucks to the politicians to get and stay in business. The government once again is being used to enforce the monopolies of the very few rich against the best interests / freedoms of the majority of the poor and middle class.

 

You are not credible on this. 401ks? Seriously? I get the argument but let's try to stay within reason here

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Add in the obvious corruption and scandal between FD and DK, and you can see that regulation is necessary. It's their own stupid recklessness that has brought this scrutiny to them. If they would just operate on the up and up, there likely wouldn't be much attention on them at all.

 

That, and their suddenly ubiquitous ad campaigns. Before you could ignore it if you wanted to, now it's blatantly obvious how any billions of dollars these guys are raking in.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

They were playing the short term con. Should have been playing the long term.

[redsrback 30]

Casinos make a lot of money and supposedly giving it to the cities to keep them safe and easy out and easy in. Try going to Detroits casinos. Also you might want to go to 1 after the Bingo people leave. Watch the 80 year old men on the tables hand a 100 to there prostitute after they hit a big hand for she can go to the slot and come back and stand by his side for another. Everybody is dirty, everybody is a crook no matter how you paint it.

[Squintz82 45]

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