Lamar Miller: Ranked #2 RB on FFToday cheatsheet?

[GornFishin' 57]

I've wavered on Miller as my drafts draw near.

 

Everything is in place for him to have that breakout season.

 

But he's being drafted as if he definitely WILL have that season.

 

At the price, I'm just not sold yet until he shows he can do it.

 

I'll avoid him and either regret it, or he may be the guy talked about next season as the guy who lost you your league this year.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

I've wavered on Miller as my drafts draw near.

 

Everything is in place for him to have that breakout season.

 

But he's being drafted as if he definitely WILL have that season.

 

At the price, I'm just not sold yet until he shows he can do it.

 

I'll avoid him and either regret it, or he may be the guy talked about next season as the guy who lost you your league this year.

 

Leagues are not won or lost by your 1st pick. It's the rest of your crap selections in the draft and your terrible in-season decision making.

 

Example: Look at last years consensus 1st rounders and their ADPs.

 

Luck, Rodgers, CJA were first rounders last year I believe. There's probably a few more I'm not thinking of.

[GornFishin' 57]

 

Leagues are not won or lost by your 1st pick. It's the rest of your crap selections in the draft and your terrible in-season decision making.

 

 

Never agreed with that gem and maths concurs. So does logic. The higher up the draft you swing and miss, the bigger the negative impact. If I want a guy to tank, it's my 12th pick, not my first.

 

Winning a strong league requires just about everything to go right, including early and late picks. If your first pick tanks. you're in a lot of trouble. Sure you can make it up with stellar late drafting if you hit a couple of diamonds, but that's the exception,

 

It's especially true with the first guy you take in each position. Your examples kind of make my point. Not many Luck or Dez owners would have won their leagues last season. I'm sure there are exceptions.

 

Either way, the topic is whether MIller should be #2. I think he's being priced at his ceiling level, as if the perfect storm is guaranteed to translate. I'm not so sure.

[Kent 228]

Never agreed with that gem and maths concurs. So does logic. The higher up the draft you swing and miss, the bigger the negative impact. If I want a guy to tank, it's my 12th pick, not my first.

 

Winning a strong league requires just about everything to go right, including early and late picks. If your first pick tanks. you're in a lot of trouble. Sure you can make it up with stellar late drafting if you hit a couple of diamonds, but that's the exception,

 

It's especially true with the first guy you take in each position. Your examples kind of make my point. Not many Luck or Dez owners would have won their leagues last season. I'm sure there are exceptions.

 

Either way, the topic is whether MIller should be #2. I think he's being priced at his ceiling level, as if the perfect storm is guaranteed to translate. I'm not so sure.

Excellent post. You lose a first or second rounder to injury or bust it's very difficult to recover because early round picks are volume picks. Typically those guys get tons of touches. I lost Charles last year and the rest of the season was a slog.

 

I made the playoffswith savvy but was in no position to contend for a title.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

"The higher up the draft you swing and miss, the bigger the negative impact. If I want a guy to tank, it's my 12th pick, not my first."

 

excuse my French but... no shet lol as for my post I was not referring to YOU but "YOU" in general.

 

Have you looked at last year's round 1 players? Really only 2 or 3 were solid.

 

Lacy, Lynch, Luck, Rodgers, CJA, Charles, Forte, Demarco, DT, and Shady were all in the top 12 ADP or so... I bet more than 50% of standard redraft champs last year ended up with one of these scrubs.

 

Drafting, WW, and playing the matchups will win or lose your league.

[Da Judge 2]

I drafted Beastmode in the first - and won the SB. As for Miller - he looks to be a lock to get 20 carries a game, play all 3 downs, on a team that is committed to the run. Hard not to like.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

What is the problem here? Didnt he finish as a top 5 RB just last year? And people are qurstioning if he can live up to his stock? Makes no sense.

 

He went 16th in my draft. Cant imagine he is going too much earlier than the turn in most leagues.

[davesnutz 4]

Bump.

[bfros 53]

Don't care what anyone says...Miller is fantastic...he's cleared 100 all purpose yards tonight vs. Pats in a blowout loss...just imagine how insane his FF points would be if HOU could figure out their offense.

 

If you can shake Miller loose from his owner, do it.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I've watched parts of all 3 games and its crystal clear that Houston got fleeced by Osweiler and has no focking clue how to use Miller. If this keeps up there's no way he'll ever justify the pick people used on him.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I've watched parts of all 3 games and its crystal clear that Houston got fleeced by Osweiler and has no focking clue how to use Miller. If this keeps up there's no way he'll ever justify the pick people used on him.

 

Meh, not particularly good analysis.

 

Yes Houston got fleeced by Osweiler. He sucks.

 

But they know how to use Lamar Miller. It's just hard to really get him going when your offense stinks in general.

 

And even though Osweiler sucks Miller is now over 100 total yards in 2 of 3 games and the other game he got 97 yards. He's a top ten RB under my league's scoring system (albeit not so good in TD heavy leagues).

 

In sum: don't quit your day job.

[Mike Nice 40]

I've watched parts of all 3 games and its crystal clear that Houston got fleeced by Osweiler and has no focking clue how to use Miller. If this keeps up there's no way he'll ever justify the pick people used on him.

15 points in a ppr league when they lose 27-0...I'm not complaining.

[phillygrrl08 139]

Miller is the one player I drafted across the board. Not finding much room to run, but he is still reaching his projected points. He is a three down back on a team with some decent offensive weapons and a weak QB. I'm okay with his production so far.

[Kent 228]

Maybe he's just not that good.

[unloopme 4]

Hear is the real damn question. Who the hell is his handcuff?

I got Blue on my bench but it sure looked like Grimes last night.

[rrmcguire 36]

would probably be committe between Grimes and Blue...nether of them are all that great

[Ray_T 591]

would probably be committe between Grimes and Blue...nether of them are all that great

This.....

 

Grimes & Blue would be the handcuff, and I'm not sure either would really do a good job of covering the bases if Miller were to get hurt.

 

If you have a deep bench, you may want one of them there, but I am not fully convinced that they'd be good enough to warrant a spot on your bench in the event Miller got hurt.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Out of all the lotto ticket handcuffs you hitched your wagon to Blue? Ick. If Miller isn't getting it done Blue certainly isn't going to.

[unloopme 4]

Out of all the lotto ticket handcuffs you hitched your wagon to Blue? Ick. If Miller isn't getting it done Blue certainly isn't going to.

Nah, my lotto tickets are Henry and Booker. I was trying to cuff my 1st rounder.

[Ray_T 591]

Out of all the lotto ticket handcuffs you hitched your wagon to Blue? Ick. If Miller isn't getting it done Blue certainly isn't going to.

agreed.

 

Miller hasnt been that bad. Just not top 5 like predicted.

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

Meh, not particularly good analysis.

 

Yes Houston got fleeced by Osweiler. He sucks.

 

But they know how to use Lamar Miller. It's just hard to really get him going when your offense stinks in general.

 

And even though Osweiler sucks Miller is now over 100 total yards in 2 of 3 games and the other game he got 97 yards. He's a top ten RB under my league's scoring system (albeit not so good in TD heavy leagues).

 

In sum: don't quit your day job.

 

First, I don't give a crap about about your scoring system. Second, as for the facts and my day job...this is supposed to be a 3 down back who was universally ranked in the top 10 in standard and particularly PPR scoring leagues and is only #16 (standard) and #18 (PPR) at his position. That's RB2 territory for a top 10 pick. It's early but the offense of the Texans doesn't bode well, particularly for a guy averaging 3.6 ypc and is flat out not getting into the end zone. I expect things to get better when they hit a softer parts of their schedule, but the idea that he's a top 5 back is quickly taking on water, just like your analysis.

[$epphori$ 118]

Man talk about being impatient. Sounds like people are have their feelings hurt because they have not gotten the return they expected on Miller. But its been 3 games and one of them was on a short week. How many other top 10 players are producing like they should?

 

Brown

Julio

DJ

Peterson

Gurley

Robinson

OBJ

 

all of these have done just as equal in production to Miller.

I say at least he is getting the ball 20+ times a game