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cmh6476

Patriots @ Chiefs AFC Championship Thread

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too soon?

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I would like to see the Patriots go to the Super Bowl.

 

My reason, I want to see the greatest team in nfl history win one more.

 

Good luck to the Chiefs.

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ESPN has it at 99.7% chance pats hold on for the win

They are going out on a limb.

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Update: 99.9%

Lol.

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In the first matchup of these 2 teams, the Patriots harassed Mahomes a lot and forced several key errant throws. Then when the Patriots got the ball back they carved up the Chiefs defense and it led to a 24-9 lead. The second half is almost ungradeable because the Chiefs started TWO touchdown drives deep into Patriots territory due to a turnover and a huge kickoff return, and the Chiefs final drive was 1 play 75 yards. Patriots dominated time of possession.

 

Mahomes got flushed out and was running for his life and tried to force it to Kelce in the end zone who was double covered and it was picked off.

 

Mahomes was running for his life on 3rd down late in the 4th and almost forced another pick to Hill.

 

They doubled Kelce all day and took him away. They took away Hill as best they could by not giving Mahomes enough time to throw. I didn't see anything there to make me think the Chiefs will win this unless they get another couple of turnovers deep in Patriots territory or Hill goes for 300 yards.

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In the first matchup of these 2 teams, the Patriots harassed Mahomes a lot and forced several key errant throws. Then when the Patriots got the ball back they carved up the Chiefs defense and it led to a 24-9 lead. The second half is almost ungradeable because the Chiefs started TWO touchdown drives deep into Patriots territory due to a turnover and a huge kickoff return, and the Chiefs final drive was 1 play 75 yards. Patriots dominated time of possession.

 

Mahomes got flushed out and was running for his life and tried to force it to Kelce in the end zone who was double covered and it was picked off.

 

Mahomes was running for his life on 3rd down late in the 4th and almost forced another pick to Hill.

 

They doubled Kelce all day and took him away. They took away Hill as best they could by not giving Mahomes enough time to throw. I didn't see anything there to make me think the Chiefs will win this unless they get another couple of turnovers deep in Patriots territory or Hill goes for 300 yards.

how the pats fare home v away is apples and oranges. Justin Houston didn't play last time either.
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The Patriots did not punt once in the first meeting. They just mauled the Chiefs defense. Maybe with Houston they can force 1 punt.

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The Patriots did not punt once in the first meeting. They just mauled the Chiefs defense. Maybe with Houston they can force 1 punt.

you have been spot on with your predictions

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you have been spot on with your predictions

If that's the criteria for posting here, I think the board would be empty!

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What does this game look like if the Patriots win?

 

Patriots pressure Mahomes a lot. Mahomes throws passes over the head of Hill and forces it into double coverage on Kelce leading to a couple of interceptions. Patriots shove the Chiefs DL around and dominate when they have the football.

 

What does this game look like if the Chiefs win?

 

Patriots get pressure on Mahomes but it leads to no turnovers. Maybe the Patriots defense drop a couple would-be interceptions. Hill gets behind the defense several times and Mahomes hits him for 2 huge touchdowns. Kelvin Benjamin is left with minimal coverage as the Patriots double Kelce and Mahomes smartly targets him and Benjamin catches everything and runs away and has a career game.

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And for KC to win, they must pressure Brady right up the middle.

 

I think if the Patriots win, it will look like today’s beat down of the Chargers.

 

If the Chiefs can get pressure up the middle and cover the Pats Rbs they have a very good shot at winning.

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Omg. Pats aren't known for their pass rush and Benjamin was inactive against the colts

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And for KC to win, they must pressure Brady right up the middle.

 

I think if the Patriots win, it will look like today’s beat down of the Chargers.

 

If the Chiefs can get pressure up the middle and cover the Pats Rbs they have a very good shot at winning.

 

The Chiefs defense is not dominant. They are going to have to outscore the Patriots. If they are going to rely on their defense to win, its gonna be a long day for KC.

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The Chiefs defense is not dominant. They are going to have to outscore the Patriots. If they are going to rely on their defense to win, its gonna be a long day for KC.

Chris Jones, Justin Houston and Dee Ford are dominant. Secondary has been the weak link but honestly since the Raiders game young guys are getting the playing time. It's made a difference.

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The Chiefs defense is not dominant. They are going to have to outscore the Patriots. If they are going to rely on their defense to win, its gonna be a long day for KC.

Lol, they will need to rely of their offense to score points.

 

And they do need to rely on their defense to slow down Brady, point is putting pressure on Brady is key.

 

If KC wins more then likely they did score a lot of points, and what will be discussed will be the pressure the KC def was able to generate vs Brady.

 

No doubt that will be the key.

 

As for a dominant def, they dont exist in todays nfl.

 

Thanks for your reply, appreciate it.

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And they do need to rely on their defense to slow down Brady, point is putting pressure on Brady is key.

 

The key to beating any NFL team is putting pressure on the QB. That just goes without saying.

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The key to beating any NFL team is putting pressure on the QB. That just goes without saying.

So you agree then.

 

Good.

 

Thanks.

 

And He said unto them, Why are ye so fearful?

how is it that ye have no faith?

Amen

Mark 4:40.

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For all thats good in the world....we need the Chiefs to win so the Super Bowl is watchable. Enough is enough. That being said, at least the game is in Arrowhead which takes some of the potential BS away that tends to always happen at Foxboro aka phantom penalties involving Gronk, defensive holding on 3rd and long which extends Pats drives, whatever.

 

The Chiefs will have to play a great game to win, no doubt but so will NE and sorry but their defense is garbage. San Diego played terribly which IMO made the Pats D look much better than it actually is. Just like the Texans made The Colts look much better than they actualy are. It happens. Like to see th Chiefs slow the game down a bit. Run the ball, take your time, dont feeel like you have to score on every play. They CAN do this. Please do this..... me and everyone not living in Boston simply want to see some fresh SB participants. Otherwise, Im watching The Godfather insteaed of the SB! :)

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I don’t think any of the four teams left have a good defense.

 

KC diffently as a good home field advantage.

 

Both games should be fun.

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Patriots 27 chiefs 17

you're a little goofy if you think the Pats D is going to hold this offense to 17. Lowest output of the year was 27, against the Ravens.

 

Here's a decent article about the changes the Chiefs have made in the secondary over the last few weeks

 

https://www.pressherald.com/2019/01/13/chiefs-defense-bolstered-by-unheralded-defensive-back/

 

 

SS Jordan Lucas was acquired just before the start of the season from Miami for a 7th round pick, and CB Charvarius Ward was acquired via trade for OL Parker Ehinger from Dallas also just before the start of the season. Both are now getting significant playing time and seem to be making the most of it.

 

It was after that game against the Chargers that Reid made a bold personnel move: He benched cornerback Orlando Scandrick and safety Ron Parker, a pair of veterans that had started all season, in favor of Lucas and Ware, a pair of relatively untested youngsters.

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Chiefs running game in this Andy Reid offense is being underrated and overlooked. Damien Williams has stepped up huge. I agree Pats will flood the middle to take away Kelce. Stephon Gilmore will have his hands full outside with Hill. Chiefs have other weapons as well, Watkins et al. The key is the KC QB, and his ability to create. You just can't game plan for what he does. Unless the Chiefs defense just gives up points in droves I can't see this being easy for New England.

 

Is it true KC has never lost an AFC Championship game at Arrowhead?

 

Just calling it like I see it.

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Chiefs running game in this Andy Reid offense is being underrated and overlooked. Damien Williams has stepped up huge. I agree Pats will flood the middle to take away Kelce. Stephon Gilmore will have his hands full outside with Hill. Chiefs have other weapons as well, Watkins et al. The key is the KC QB, and his ability to create. You just can't game plan for what he does. Unless the Chiefs defense just gives up points in droves I can't see this being easy for New England.

 

Is it true KC has never lost an AFC Championship game at Arrowhead?

 

Just calling it like I see it.

there has never been an afc championship at arrowhead

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So then they have never lost won then right?

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Can you stop with the religious posts, please?

Can Size?

 

Haha I’m sorry I just had to do it.

 

Hey thanks for the reply.

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you're a little goofy if you think the Pats D is going to hold this offense to 17. Lowest output of the year was 27, against the Ravens.

 

Here's a decent article about the changes the Chiefs have made in the secondary over the last few weeks

 

https://www.pressherald.com/2019/01/13/chiefs-defense-bolstered-by-unheralded-defensive-back/

 

 

SS Jordan Lucas was acquired just before the start of the season from Miami for a 7th round pick, and CB Charvarius Ward was acquired via trade for OL Parker Ehinger from Dallas also just before the start of the season. Both are now getting significant playing time and seem to be making the most of it.

 

indi pretty much shut them down in the second half other than that garbage time td :dunno:

This ain't a dome indi team your team is facing.

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I had the Saints winning the Super Bowl but because the Saints lost Rankins to injury I'll switch to the Patriots winning another ring.

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Keys to a Chiefs win:

 

Offensively - Sammy Watkins and Damien Williams. The Hoody can't take out all of KC's weapons, but will likely focus on Hill/Kelce. Now healthy and rested, Watkins has the skillz to dominate, and must step up big in this one. Conley/Robinson/Benjamin must also take advantage of any opportunities they get. Williams (with some Ware mixed in) must establish the run game early, not only to keep the clock running, but to also make the Hoody cheat the safety up and make him think twice about blitzing. If a KC lead is established....keep the hammer down. We all saw what happened to the Falcons in the SB a couple of years ago. This shouldn't be a problem with Reid coaching.

 

Defensively - Must take James White out as much as possible. He is Brady's security blanket. Must also have success getting in Brady's face right up the gut.....A and B gap pressure must get home to disrupt the GOAT. He is obviously not mobile like Mahomie, and that weakness must be exploited. It's his only real weakness (along with no longer being able to deliver the long-ball). Obviously, Brady is playing with a major chip on his shoulder for motivation, which makes him extra-dangerous. The few times that he has lost in the post-season resulted from defenses contacting him early and often.

 

KC 34

Pats 30

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A look at the Belichick Patriots and turnovers:

 

1. They are undefeated in the playoffs when they win the turnover battle. A perfect 16-0.

2. When the Patriot defense collects at least TWO turnovers, they are 17-1. The only loss was to the Ravens in 2009 33-14 when the Patriots turned it over 4 times.

3. They are 11-1 when they don't turn the ball over. The only loss was to the Broncos in 2013, 26-16. The Broncos also did not turn the ball over.

4. They are 3-4 in the playoffs when the turnover battle is a tie. They are 1-4 in their last 5 playoffs when both teams turn the ball over the same number of times.

5. When they turn the ball over at least twice, they are still 8-4.

6. When the Patriots lose the turnover battle, they are 7-6.

7. In road playoff games, the Patriots are 3-2-2 at trying to win the turnover battle.

 

Playoff record of other teams in the 21st century when they win the turnover battle:

 

AFC

 

Steelers: 11-1

Ravens: 10-3

Raiders: 4-1

Colts: 5-3

Broncos: 4-2

Chargers: 4-2

Chiefs: 1-2

Bengals: NEVER won the turnover battle in 7 playoff games in the 21st century, also lost all of them

 

NFC

 

Giants: 6-1

Eagles: 7-3

Saints: 4-0

Packers: 7-3 (all losses under Aaron Rodgers)

Falcons: 5-2 (3-2 under Matt Ryan)

Panthers: 6-1 (2-1 under Cam Newton)

49ers: 4-0

Seahawks: 6-6 (5-2 under Russell Wilson)

Cowboys: 2-1 (0-0 under Dak Prescott)

 

 

 

The 2018 Patriots EXCEL at taking care of the football. Tom Brady only has 11 interceptions. They have only fumbled 11 times as a team. Tom Brady leads with just 4. Rex Burkhead has fumbled twice in 57 carries. Sony Michel has fumbled 1x in 216 touches. James White has never fumbled in 181 touches.

 

The 2018 Chiefs might have a bit of an issue with fumbling. Pat Mahomes has fumbled 9 times which is a bit high. Damien Williams 73 touches and has fumbled 1x so its hard to gauge that. The loss of Kareem Hunt might be a big factor here because he took care of the football with ZERO fumbles in 207 touches. THAT will be missed in this game. Mahomes only has 12 interceptions.

 

The Chiefs have forced 29 fumbles, which goes a long way to helping their defense. But the Patriots don't fumble. So that's an interesting tug of war but I would downgrade the Chiefs defense here.

 

The 2018 Chiefs are 1-3 when they lose the turnover battle and the 2018 Patriots are 2-0.

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Chiefs 30 Pats 26

 

Chiefs and under :dunno:

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