Kentucky Derby 2019 - Omaha Beach Scratched!

[tubby_mcgee 686]

Looks like a deeeeeep field in my opinion.     In recent years, favorites have done well.  We're due for a longshot at some point.

So many horses look good.  Game Winner, Tacitus, Improbable, Omaha Beach, Maximum Security, Roadster....to me all looked great last time out. 

Lots of story lines. Lots to talk about.  But I'll save my breath for now.

Someone's gotta win.  There are too many chalky horses.  So, I'll skip hurting my brain trying to make a deep exotic pick,  and I'll go mid-pack long shot "By My Standard" and a simple exacta box.

 

$50 to win on #3 (By My Standard)

$20 Exacta Box Omaha Beach/Game Winner/By My Standard

[Alias Detective 1,179]

8,13,16 Exacta box

 

Tacticus, Code of Honor, Game Winner

[Drizzay 646]

I hope Omaha Beach wins simply for the name.

[GobbleDog 816]

My tried and true Kentucky Derby system has a great track record... I just screw it up by tossing the wrong horses. Let's do it!  - Eliminate horses not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Eliminate all horses not bred in the great state of Kentucky. Those qualifications make up 80%+ of all Derby winners.

Santa Anita Derby

1. Roadster

2. Game Winner

Arkansas Derby

1. Omaha Beach

2. Improbable

Blue Grass

1. Vekoma

2. Win Win Win - Bred in Florida

Florida Derby

1. Maximum Security

2. Bodexpress - Waiting on a defection to get into Derby

Wood Memorial

1. Tacitus

2. Tax

.........................................................................

That leaves 8.

Toss out Tax - the #2 post position.  And a gelding. Good luck with that.

Toss out Roadster - the #17 post has NEVER won the Derby.

Toss out Vekoma - Blue Grass hasn't produced a Derby winner in decades, let alone a speedster. Hit the road glue stick.

Toss out Maximum Security - Ever heard of jockey Luis Saez? Me neither.  Never better than 7th place in 6 Derby rides.  Also a speedster horse.

Toss out Tacitus - Experts say he's a bit out of his league in this race facing weak competition in previous races. Plus he's ugly grey.  Gone.

....................................................................................

Down to 3.

Toss out Improbable - His owners won with Justify last year. No owner has won back-to-back since 1973. Also blinkers coming off for first time.

Toss out Omaha Beach - The Derby favorite - which have won 6 straight Derby's following a drought of 30+ years. The streak ends here - lots of parity in this race.

Which is why GAME WINNER at 5-1 odds out of the #16 post position will be the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner. Of the major prep races, the Santa Anita is one of the most prestigious. Finishing 2nd (by a length) to talented Roadster is nothing to be ashamed of. His other 2nd place finish? To Derby favorite Omaha Beach - by a nose. His record is 4-2-0 in 6 starts, all Grade I.  Jockey Joel Rosario already has a Derby win under his belt (2013). Trainer is Bob Baffert. 

[Gladiators 1,904]

I know she’s at the tail end of her career, but I gotta go with Serena.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

I have been a TVG addict the last few weeks. Just watching. Almost every race has a top 3 finish from the 1,4,5 post position. Most of those are sprints which is not the KD but these horses are a different breed. Improbable is the best horse in these positions. He will finish in top 3. 

[Djgb13 2,338]

Never actually been to it. Been to the race track cause we had a baseball tourney there. Always wanted to go. But betting on horse races is always fun 

[tubby_mcgee 686]

1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

I have been a TVG addict the last few weeks. Just watching. Almost every race has a top 3 finish from the 1,4,5 post position. Most of those are sprints which is not the KD but these horses are a different breed. Improbable is the best horse in these positions. He will finish in top 3. 

Those races don't have 20 horses in them. 

 

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

1 minute ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Those races don't have 20 horses in them. 

True. That could actually create more traffic for the outside. Point being, great horses can fight a bad post position. Less than great horses have more trouble. I am not picking the winner. Just saying a money horse will come from 1 4 5. Recent history shows the winner will come from the 5-16 pp. Bettors know this.  If you want to take a chance on a longshot find the best non favorite in one of these pps.

[iam90sbaby 2,125]

2 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

True. That could actually create more traffic for the outside. Point being, great horses can fight a bad post position. Less than great horses have more trouble. I am not picking the winner. Just saying a money horse will come from 1 4 5. Recent history shows the winner will come from the 5-16 pp. Bettors know this.  If you want to take a chance on a longshot find the best non favorite in one of these pps.

I’m going to drop $100 on a horse today so the race is more entertaining to me. I don’t know anything about it and I’m expecting to lose it. What horse with the lowest odds do you think has the best chance to win? 

[edjr 5,567]

22 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

I’m going to drop $100 on a horse today so the race is more entertaining to me. I don’t know anything about it and I’m expecting to lose it. What horse with the lowest odds do you think has the best chance to win? 

put 100 on each

[tubby_mcgee 686]

16 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

I’m going to drop $100 on a horse today so the race is more entertaining to me. I don’t know anything about it and I’m expecting to lose it. What horse with the lowest odds do you think has the best chance to win? 

Odds

 

That's anyones guess.   With 20 horses, anything can happen.  I like front running horses as they have usually have one advantage in the derby-- they often avoid mud/dirt in face and traffic.  That's beside the point tho.

By My Standards - DRF clockers report says this guy has been training like a champ.  That's why I'm putting money on him.  Not a good post position, IMO.

War of Will - he is in the worst post position, IMO. Unless he can get to the lead early.    His trainer says they are "gunning it' coming out of the gate to get the lead.  Sometimes front horses, if not pushed, can coast around the track, then have a lot in the tank when turning for home, and they stay in front.  DRF says he's been a standout in training.

Also, as far as DRF, they said Omaha Beach....looks the part of a Derby Winner in training.  Full of energy. (But then again, so are many horses).  Omaha is obviously not a long shot...so he's not your pick.  

 

If you're looking to cash in on a long shot, sometimes, after a race is won by a long shot...I think to myself.... "The only way anyone was gonna pick that horse, was if they drew their name from a hat" -- as in , if you "look" for things that tell you a horse is gonna win....sometimes the horse that wins, had none of those things, so you threw them out. 

[GobbleDog 816]

40 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

I’m going to drop $100 on a horse today so the race is more entertaining to me. I don’t know anything about it and I’m expecting to lose it. What horse with the lowest odds do you think has the best chance to win? 

The 4 most talented horses in this race are Omaha Beach, Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable. I'd pick one of them.

But it's the Derby with 20 horses, so talent isn't everything. They get boxed in or out or bumped...  need talent and luck.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

12 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

The 4 most talented horses in this race are Omaha Beach, Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable. I'd pick one of them.

But it's the Derby with 20 horses, so talent isn't everything. They get boxed in or out or bumped...  need talent and luck.

 

Ahh...lowest odds....yes....I misread his post. 

 

I agree with you.

[iam90sbaby 2,125]

$100 on Code of Honor

[Baker Boy 1,485]

1 hour ago, iam90sbaby said:

$100 on Code of Honor

If you are betting on the odds you should bet as close to post time as you can. The odds will change and you may change your mind.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

2002- War Emblem, Proud Citizen

Maybe this tactic this year...

Omaha Beach, War of Will, Code of Honor

[TimmySmith 2,782]

After examination. Looking for valued longshots.

Maximum Security

Vekoma

Win win win

Improbable

[tubby_mcgee 686]

Hot off the press.

 

Omaha Beach....
SCRATCHED. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

14 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Hot off the press.

 

Omaha Beach....
SCRATCHED. 

The odds for Improbable are now non existent. 

[GobbleDog 816]

2 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Hot off the press.

 

Omaha Beach....
SCRATCHED. 

Ah crap... this screws up my analysis.  Bodexpress is now in at the 20th post and all horses outside of post position #12 (Ohama Beach's spot) move over one.  So, the new line-up is:

(Commentary from Covers.com)

1. War of Will 20-1 This long shot won three in a row within the graded stakes ranks before a very disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby last time out. He had an excuse and was a non-factor early after an awkward step. Since that loss, his workouts have been fast and he will try to be forwardly placed. Thankfully, he has enough early speed to overcome the difficult inside post .

2. Tax 20-1 He ran second best to the eventual Wood Memorial Winner in Tacitus in his most recent showing. He’s another runner that likes to be close to the front end, and has never been farther back than third in any start during his four career races. Speed wise, he’s quick, but it was only four starts ago that he was claimed while racing against maiden company. If he can take advantage of the inside post, he should be placed within the first group of runners entering the first turn.

3. By My Stands 20-1 He’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby producing the upset at 22/1 odds. He did well in his first start versus stakes competition, albeit a very weak field. Competing against some of the top horses with a lack of experience will be a tough task for this runner, who could find himself in a good position to take advantage of an advantageous trip.

4. Gray Magician 50-1 This long shot finished second by three quarters of a length in the UAE Derby. His only win in eight career starts came in a six-furlong sprint against maiden company at Del Mar. In his only graded stakes race, he was not competitive and does not look like he will have much of an impact in the Kentucky Derby at all.

5. Improbable 6-1 He is arguably trainer Bob Baffert’s best shot at another Derby win as he goes for back-to-back victories and his sixth “Run for the Roses” title. He will likely attempt to work out a stalking trip and has shown a nice late-closing kick. He has been the betting favorite in four of his five career races and will get a lot of attention at the Kentucky Derby betting windows this Saturday. He’s a definite must-have on top and in all slots for your exotic wagers.

 

6. Vekoma 20-1 Jockey Javier Castellano is 0 for 12 in the Kentucky Derby with his best finish coming onboard Audible, who finished third last year. This runner with a very unorthodox racing style is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes by three and one quarter lengths on April 6. He’s racing his best when stalking the pace and should be put in a good position to make a competitive run in the deep stretch.

7. Maximum Security 10-1 He’s coming off an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby to remain undefeated through four career starts. Speed wise, he’s put forth some very impressive times and has shown a good amount of early speed, which should be useful in securing the front end early. He must avoid a potential pace duel upfront but stay close to the pace where his best efforts have been.

8. Tacitus 10-1 He has won three straight races and has shown a noticeable improvement speed wise with each career start. With only four career starts, he’s one of the most lightly-raced colts. His racing versatility is a huge asset and he looks to thrive off the gruelling Kentucky Derby distance.

9. Plus Que Parfait 30-1 He recently won the UAE Derby but outside of that start, has been very disappointing - especially on North American soil where he was not competitive within the graded-stakes ranks. He’s a runner that should benefit from the speed upfront early and attempt to work out a trip from mid-pack. Although, he would need a lot of things to go his way in order to have a shot to hit the board.

10. Cutting Humor 30-1 He worked out a nice stalking trip to get the job done in the Sunland Derby. Although he added a graded-stakes win to his resume, the field was weak and, when compared to a lot of the other times in races at the same distance, he seems to be a bit slow.

 

11. Haikal 30-1 He gets out very slow, spotting the field as many as 14 lengths in his last two races. With his closing style, he’s a runner that really benefits from the quick early fractions and perhaps a speed duel up front. He should take well to the added furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and looms as a long shot, who might be able to hit the board closing late at a nice price.

12. Code of Honor 15-1 He’s coming off a third place finish in the Florida Derby after getting bumped at the start. The Florida Derby was an odd race with Maximum Security left alone uncontested on the front end. Despite Maximum Security having his way on the front end, Code of Honor showed a nice late-closing kick off easy fractions. Look for him to be positioned well to run down the leaders in the deep stretch.

13. Win Win Win 15-1 He’s one of only a few horses with a closing style and is another that looks like he will benefit from the faster early fractions. The post position does not deter him and he will definitely be spotting the field a lot of early lengths. The added couple of furlongs of the Derby look advantageous to him and he’s another that should be flying late in deep stretch.

14. Master Fencer 50-1 This is the first ever Japanese-bred horse to try its luck in the Kentucky Derby. He has two wins in three career starts and has had almost a week in Louisville to prep for the change of scenery and get adjusted to the new track. He is a long shot for a reason and does not look like he will at any point be a factor on the first Saturday in May.

15. Game Winner 5-1 He’s been a beaten favorite in both of his 2019 career races, however, he narrowly missed finishing second in both. He draws a very difficult post position for a horse that isn’t a true closer or one that doesn’t seem to posses a lot of early speed. This outside post may force him farther back than ideal. Without seeing experience closing or off a troubled trip, the price appears too short.

 

16. Roadster 6-1 He’s another runner that was hoping for a better post position draw as he may be forced very wide early on the first turn, due to the outside post and his lack of early speed. He loses the services of jockey Mike Smith to Omaha Beach, and while this is not the worst jockey change, it’s still a huge disadvantage losing Smith, who has been on board in all of his four career starts. It’s tough to find complaints with this colt who has looked very good in all of his California races.

17. Long Range Toddy 30-1 He is coming off a disappointing effort in the Arkansas Derby, racing over a sloppy track. He didn’t take well to the off track and being forced wide, but he has put forth some good efforts. It will be difficult to navigate out of the outside post as a runner not possessing much early speed or showcasing any type of a solid late-closing kick.

18. Spinoff 30-1 The best part of this runner is his training. It’s very rare you see a Todd Pletcher horse with such high morning line odds attached. He’s lightly raced and has only made two starts since August and it’s very possible he’s sitting on a big race as his times have steadily been improving. He’s taken well to the early bumping in his most recent two races, which preps him for what’s to come in the Kentucky Derby.

19. Country House 30-1 If any horse is going to draw the outside and not be affected by it, then it would be this runner who starts very slowly and has shown a decent late-closing kick. He will be hoping for a pace meltdown up front to track down tired runners late. He’s worthy of a closer look into rounding out your superfecta wagers.

20. Bodexpress ?? -1

..................................................................................

This means my previous pick Game Winner is now the favorite. I don't bet favorites. Back to the drawing board. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

8 hours ago, iam90sbaby said:

I’m going to drop $100 on a horse today so the race is more entertaining to me. I don’t know anything about it and I’m expecting to lose it. What horse with the lowest odds do you think has the best chance to win? 

Code of honor

 

edit, I see my recommendation was late.  

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

On 5/1/2019 at 7:40 AM, Gladiators said:

I know she’s at the tail end of her career, but I gotta go with Serena.

If I owned a derby horse, I would name it Carrie Bradshaw. 

[tubby_mcgee 686]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Ah crap... this screws up my analysis.  Bodexpress is now in at the 20th post and all horses outside of post position #12 (Ohama Beach's spot) move over one.  So, the new line-up is:

 

20. Bodexpress ?? -1

..................................................................................

This means my previous pick Game Winner is now the favorite. I don't bet favorites. Back to the drawing board. 

 

Bodexpress...will be 20-1 or so.  He is better than some of horses, just didn't have points to get in.

Game Winner, many think ran a "winning" race vs Omaha Beach last time out.  Just had a bad trip.

But so often, I'd see that....(Ex:)  Horse A had a bad trip, and lost by a Nose to Horse B. Hence, the next race, Horse A should win.

The next race, it seems like the same thing happens.  Horse B wins by a  narrow margin again.  And I've seen the top 2 in derby, be the exact same as the top 2 from a recent prep race.

So it wouldn't have surprised me to see an Omaha Beach, Game Winner finish in the Derby.

If you think Game Winner is going to win, pick him, regardless. If odds are too short, put him on top in exotics.  I know you know this stuff.  I'm just reminding you.

 

I was also wondering, any chance Mike Smith picks up the mount on Roadster now, or is that considered breach of etiquette?

[iam90sbaby 2,125]

4 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Code of honor

 

edit, I see my recommendation was late.  

It’s a sign thanks for that 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Can Mike Smith hop on Roadster now?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

18 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Can Mike Smith hop on Roadster now?

It appears he could but won't. I think the stable might get first choice for Bafferts other horses. Then the field gets a shot.

[BufordT 371]

Maximum Security looks interesting.  Has won all 4 of his races easily.  Owns the 2nd best speed figure (tie) in the race and got that speed figure in an 11 horse field without exerting much energy.  Also seems to get better with added distance.  He might be the favorite at post time.

Long Range Toddy is a long shot I'll have in a lot exactas and trifectas....as long as it's a fast track.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

3 minutes ago, BufordT said:

Maximum Security looks interesting.  Has won all 4 of his races easily.  Owns the 2nd best speed figure (tie) in the race and got that speed figure in an 11 horse field without exerting much energy.  Also seems to get better with added distance.  He might be the favorite at post time.

He could be favorite at post time. I agree.

Bodexpress entry hurts his chances a bit. With 3 horses possibly fighting for the lead, (War of Will, Maximum Security, Bodexpress) , pace could be a bit fast.

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

36 minutes ago, BufordT said:

Maximum Security looks interesting.  Has won all 4 of his races easily.  Owns the 2nd best speed figure (tie) in the race and got that speed figure in an 11 horse field without exerting much energy.  Also seems to get better with added distance.  He might be the favorite at post time.

Long Range Toddy is a long shot I'll have in a lot exactas and trifectas....as long as it's a fast track.

Yeah, Toddy got smoked in the slop.  Arkansas derby horses are all wildcards.

MS, who I like, got the same Post (7) that he did in the Florida Derby, which he won handily.  Good Karma.  Like Toddy, do not consider him if the track isn't fast.

Vekoma, who I really like, was as fast as MS from the rail in the Blue Grass.  A real blazer under Castellano.  He gets out fast. 6th PP is reasonable.

Win Win Win, lost to Vekoma in the BG. Has late, late, late speed, and has suffered poor starts in poor posts for him.  He gets a great draw for him further outside the rabble so maybe he won't get lost in traffic.  This distance suits late speed.  Worth a little spread across the board.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

This distance suits late speed.

I 100% disagree with this.   Distance has ZERO to do with late speed (closers).  Fast pace helps late speed.  Not distance.

 

This is a little different....but it bugs me every year when people think "coming late" means "better at long distance". ....
Take last year for example...horses closed on Justify in Preakness. So many were "If that race had been the Belmont, Justify woulda lost...."  then assumed  that Justify would lose to a Preakness closer.  In a way, they were right, HAD the Preakness been the Belmont, and Mike Smith not known it was the Belmont, sure, he woulda used his horse to get to 1 3/16 miles as fast as he could, and horses woulda passed him. BUT...he knew it was 1 3/16...and used his horse to get that distance as fast as he could. Then, when the Belmont came, he knew that was 1 1/2 miles, so he used his horse to get 1 1/2 miles as fast as he could.

Its about getting to the finish line first. If I run slow the first half, I sure as sh!t should be able to close some distance near the end.  The winner though, isn't who "is coming hard at the end" or "closed the most distance". Its about getting to the finish line first.   Jockeys attempt to pace their horses accordingly.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

32 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

I 100% disagree with this.   Distance has ZERO to do with late speed (closers).  Fast pace helps late speed.  Not distance.

This is a little different....but it bugs me every year when people think "coming late" means "better at long distance". ....
Take last year for example...horses closed on Justify in Preakness. So many were "If that race had been the Belmont, Justify woulda lost...."  then assumed  that Justify would lose to a Preakness closer.  In a way, they were right, HAD the Preakness been the Belmont, and Mike Smith not known it was the Belmont, sure, he woulda used his horse to get to 1 3/16 miles as fast as he could, and horses woulda passed him. BUT...he knew it was 1 3/16...and used his horse to get that distance as fast as he could. Then, when the Belmont came, he knew that was 1 1/2 miles, so he used his horse to get 1 1/2 miles as fast as he could.

Its about getting to the finish line first. If I run slow the first half, I sure as sh!t should be able to close some distance near the end.  The winner though, isn't who "is coming hard at the end" or "closed the most distance". Its about getting to the finish line first.   Jockeys attempt to pace their horses accordingly.

I hear you, I just disagree. We will certainly see horses get passed in the final 1/8th, will we not?  Most horses have a single race of this distance under their belt.  And not with a 20 horse gate.  Win Win Win is a closer.  Whether that gets him from 10th place to 6th  or 4 to 1 in that final furlong remains to be seen.  But to say that extra 1/8 doesn't make is difference is a bit ridiculous.   

[BufordT 371]

2 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

He could be favorite at post time. I agree.

Bodexpress entry hurts his chances a bit. With 3 horses possibly fighting for the lead, (War of Will, Maximum Security, Bodexpress) , pace could be a bit fast.

 

MS dusted Bodexpress last time out so I'll disagree.  And Bodexpress is still a maiden.....stranger things have happened though.

[BufordT 371]

34 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

I hear you, I just disagree. We will certainly see horses get passed in the final 1/8th, will we not?  Most horses have a single race of this distance under their belt.  And not with a 20 horse gate.  Win Win Win is a closer.  Whether that gets him from 10th place to 6th  or 4 to 1 in that final furlong remains to be seen.  But to say that extra 1/8 doesn't make is difference is a bit ridiculous.   

None of these horses have raced at 1 1/4 miles yet except the one shipping from Asia somewhere.  That what makes the race interesting....which horse handles the 1 1/4 miles the best.

Agree with Tubby for the most part.  There'll be a few closers in this race who can't handle the 1 1/4 mile distance.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Sorry if I missed it in here.  But what kind of bets do you guys play?

I know the basics at most on horse betting.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

3 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

.  But to say that extra 1/8 doesn't make is difference is a bit ridiculous.   

It makes a difference in that some horses can "get" 1.25 miles better than other horses, but but doesn't mean it favors slow, closing horses.    At all.  Look at the last 20 Belmonts.  That's as far as any of these horses will ever run.  It favors front to near front runners. 

So to win the Boston Marathon, or a 5k, or a 10k or the 2mile in h.s, you should hang back at the end, then try to catch the people in the front? 

 

Even if you are a "closer" you still have to run 1.25 miles in the KD.   Running the first half slower, doesn't mean the overall time will be faster. 

And of course some horses near the lead will be passed. But some horses near the lead or middle or back will look they are on a merry go round or fall even further back.

Bodeexpress is a front runner (I think).  So is Maximum Security and War of Wills trainer said he will be "sent to the front".  If a horse can't rate....meaning, slow down and relax (without fighting the jockey) when the jockey asks, that horse will basically fight to stay in front.  If 3 horses are all doing this,  they will run a super fast first 3/4 of the race all trying to stay ahead of each other, then likely fade because they sprinted.  That's where closers have the advantage.

Lets say for instance, the first 1/4 is 22 and change, and the half in 45 and the first 3/4 in 1:09, the horses in front can't carry that speed for 1.25...so they falter and the horses running reasonable paces, close and win.    Perfect example is the 2001 Derby.  Monarchos takes down Point Given

Listen to announcer Tom Durkin when he sees how fast they ran 1/4, 1/2, 3/4....

[Alias Detective 1,179]

28 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

It makes a difference in that some horses can "get" 1.25 miles better than other horses, but but doesn't mean it favors slow, closing horses.    At all.  Look at the last 20 Belmonts.  That's as far as any of these horses will ever run.  It favors front to near front runners. 

So to win the Boston Marathon, or a 5k, or a 10k or the 2mile in h.s, you should hang back at the end, then try to catch the people in the front? 

 

Even if you are a "closer" you still have to run 1.25 miles in the KD.   Running the first half slower, doesn't mean the overall time will be faster. 

And of course some horses near the lead will be passed. But some horses near the lead or middle or back will look they are on a merry go round or fall even further back.

Bodeexpress is a front runner (I think).  So is Maximum Security and War of Wills trainer said he will be "sent to the front".  If a horse can't rate....meaning, slow down and relax (without fighting the jockey) when the jockey asks, that horse will basically fight to stay in front.  If 3 horses are all doing this,  they will run a super fast first 3/4 of the race all trying to stay ahead of each other, then likely fade because they sprinted.  That's where closers have the advantage.

Lets say for instance, the first 1/4 is 22 and change, and the half in 45 and the first 3/4 in 1:09, the horses in front can't carry that speed for 1.25...so they falter and the horses running reasonable paces, close and win.    Perfect example is the 2001 Derby.  Monarchos takes down Point Given

Listen to announcer Tom Durkin when he sees how fast they ran 1/4, 1/2, 3/4....

Sounds believable to me.  

[GobbleDog 816]

Now that my original pick (Game Winner) is the favorite following Omaha's scratch, I've dumped him in search of value. After some soul searching .... my farm is riding on #7 Maximum Security.  And my chicken coop is riding on #6 Vekoma.

If they come 1st and 2nd, I'm going to Sizzler!  

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Anyone have Hammerin Hanks picks?  I cant find them online.   Heard he likes By My Standards

[tubby_mcgee 686]

1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

Anyone have Hammerin Hanks picks?  I cant find them online.   Heard he likes By My Standards

 

 

If you search Kentucky Derby picks, do not click on any CBS link.  They all eventually lead to a pay-them-money site.

 

And there was never a clear favorite.  We don't know Omaha Beach woulda been favorite at post time.  I see people like "Awwwww Geez....the favorite is out"

He was a very very luke warm favorite.