Is it time to get out of the market?

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

1 hour ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Went back in COB Friday... 100% Small Caps... lets make some money back!

No way, I still think the DJIA hits between 16,000 and 18,000. This is the very beginning and we are not taking all of the necessary steps yet to slow the spread.

[vuduchile 1,945]

2 hours ago, Bill E. said:

That is what I ended up doing.  They canceled the show last minute.  The good thing was the two customers had nobody else to buy from so they bought stuff they normally would have passed on.  I probably did as well as if the show had happened and I am back home already.

Nice work man.  

We closed a couple more tile sales yesterday.   Back at work again today.  
 

 

[Cdub100 3,907]

2 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Went back in COB Friday... 100% Small Caps... lets make some money back!

I don't think that's a good idea, but I hope it works out for you. If anything small caps are about to get hardest. They can't absorb the hits that are coming these next 3-4 weeks like large caps can.

I have been 100% cash since Feb 28th. I'm sitting on the sidelines for now. When I jump back in I'm 100% back in. I'm not jumping in and out. Ride or die.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

25 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I don't think that's a good idea, but I hope it works out for you. If anything small caps are about to get hardest. They can't absorb the hits that are coming these next 3-4 weeks like large caps can.

I have been 100% cash since Feb 28th. I'm sitting on the sidelines for now. When I jump back in I'm 100% back in. I'm not jumping in and out. Ride or die.

I'm now in a long term buy and hold pattern with this... I'm about +20% on the market right now... so when it comes back... and it will eventually... I'll be gold bro.

[lod001 1,344]

5 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I'm now in a long term buy and hold pattern with this... I'm about +20% on the market right now... so when it comes back... and it will eventually... I'll be gold bro.

i think that's a bad move. Stick to the large caps at the start of this recovery, then switch to small caps. That;s my plan I noted Friday, small caps did not recover as much as large caps from the Thursday sell off.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,424]

Dow futures halted again 

[nobody 2,671]

Even after the rate cut to 0

[nobody 2,671]

10 year treasury down 280 basis points.  Looks like another bloodbath tomorrow even in the face of all the stimulus.

[Cdub100 3,907]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Even after the rate cut to 0

So dumb stop dropping the rate. Nothing is going to stop the bleeding 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

8 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

So dumb stop dropping the rate. Nothing is going to stop the bleeding 

Exactly. This is far beyond anything the Fed can stop. Just let it happen 

[Leeson 54]

MGM will close Las Vegas properties on Tuesday. 

You know it's bad when the casinos close. 

[nobody 2,671]

21 minutes ago, Leeson said:

MGM will close Las Vegas properties on Tuesday. 

You know it's bad when the casinos close. 

I think we just hit peak fear.

[Cdub100 3,907]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

I think we just hit peak fear.

I don't understand what you mean when you say this?

[nobody 2,671]

I'm saying the American public will not be more afraid of COVID-19 than they are this week.

In other words, I think fear will peak this week. Typically, I would like to get my money in the stock market when fear is at its peak.

I happened to be talking about this with a couple of buddies a week ago.  One said closing Disney was probably the peak of fear.  I said if Vegas closes casinos, that's when I'm getting in. 

[mmmmm...beer 807]

So... RCL was at $33.00 on Friday... looks like everything tanks tomorrow... I have $700 in my Acrons... might be tome to buy as much as I can.... $135 52-week high.... once this is finished.. Royal Carribean should be just fine...

[nobody 2,671]

US is talking about stepping in to bail out cruise lines.  I still wouldn't buy them for another 18 months.  It takes awhile to shed the stigma.

[Cdub100 3,907]

5 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

So... RCL was at $33.00 on Friday... looks like everything tanks tomorrow... I have $700 in my Acrons... might be tome to buy as much as I can.... $135 52-week high.... once this is finished.. Royal Carribean should be just fine...

Dude just wait it's going to keep falling

[NorthernVike 2,086]

6 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

So... RCL was at $33.00 on Friday... looks like everything tanks tomorrow... I have $700 in my Acrons... might be tome to buy as much as I can.... $135 52-week high.... once this is finished.. Royal Carribean should be just fine...

Why do you think they'll be fine?  They have huge expenses maintaining all those ships and they won't bring in a dime very soon.  Do they carry debt currently?   I'm  not judging,   I've never looked into them.  Never thought Lehman Brothers would fail.  I'm sitting out for now.

[mmmmm...beer 807]

Woof... immediate circuit breaker

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

This whole week will be a shitshow.  The Dow is back to 2016 numbers.  The NASDAQ is barely at 52 week lows.  There is still room for corrections if you look at EPS. 

The question is what you buy when you are ready to go back in.  I will not jump in with both feet.  I will be dipping my toes in with periodic buys to get some more dollar cost averaging.  I will be going for more high tech and will probably be hitting QQQ first.  Just not yet.  

[TimmySmith 2,782]

9 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

The question is what you buy when you are ready to go back in.  I will not jump in with both feet.  I will be dipping my toes in with periodic buys to get some more dollar cost averaging.  I will be going for more high tech and will probably be hitting QQQ first.  Just not yet.  

Don't. The big boys are on the sidelines watching the schmucks play the market. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

Don't. The big boys are on the sidelines watching the schmucks play the market. 

Never?  The big boys will be dipping their toes in too at some point.  I still think that we are a couple of weeks away from bottom.  Until we are comfortable that China is coming out of this with no major reoccurrence, I don't see any uptick in the market.  Right now it is just far too volatile for me.  

[Cdub100 3,907]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Never?  The big boys will be dipping their toes in too at some point.  I still think that we are a couple of weeks away from bottom.  Until we are comfortable that China is coming out of this with no major reoccurrence, I don't see any uptick in the market.  Right now it is just far too volatile for me.  

6 months to a year

This is just the first wave

Earnings reports will be bad

Business will start to default

People will get laid off

Market will continue to go down

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Never?  The big boys will be dipping their toes in too at some point.  I still think that we are a couple of weeks away from bottom.  Until we are comfortable that China is coming out of this with no major reoccurrence, I don't see any uptick in the market.  Right now it is just far too volatile for me.  

I stand by my prediction the market will be shuttered.  

[Leeson 54]

11 hours ago, nobody said:

I'm saying the American public will not be more afraid of COVID-19 than they are this week.

In other words, I think fear will peak this week. Typically, I would like to get my money in the stock market when fear is at its peak.

I happened to be talking about this with a couple of buddies a week ago.  One said closing Disney was probably the peak of fear.  I said if Vegas closes casinos, that's when I'm getting in. 

MGM is just half the equation. Wynn closed his two properties also. But, Caesars properties are still quiet. There are also a few properties owned by individual groups. Cosmopolitan, Treasure Island, etc. 

I wonder if MGM panicked early because of the fallout from the Mandalay Bay shooting.

Who knows. Everyone has to decide on their own how/when to invest their money. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

12 minutes ago, Leeson said:

MGM is just half the equation. Wynn closed his two properties also. But, Caesars properties are still quiet. There are also a few properties owned by individual groups. Cosmopolitan, Treasure Island, etc. 

I wonder if MGM panicked early because of the fallout from the Mandalay Bay shooting.

Who knows. Everyone has to decide on their own how/when to invest their money. 

With the science of Vegas, each club must know the margins, down to the person, how many bodies they need on site to make money.  Just think of the daily food cost.

[lod001 1,344]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

6 months to a year

This is just the first wave

Earnings reports will be bad

Business will start to default

People will get laid off

Market will continue to go down

Before that however, big bear market rally if we stave off the virus. THEN reality hits and the damage starts to show up. 

That's how I see it going.

[Leeson 54]

33 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

With the science of Vegas, each club must know the margins, down to the person, how many bodies they need on site to make money.  Just think of the daily food cost.

Not sure how many people know this, but Vegas (especially the strip) all properties are basically owned by two entities. MGM Holdings and Caesars Entertainment. With Wynn and MGM closing down Caesar's doesn't have to fight for market share. 

If the panic is real, then it will be the number of people through the door that will close the rest. If not, I think they could stay open and profitable.

 

[Cdub100 3,907]

1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Before that however, big bear market rally if we stave off the virus. THEN reality hits and the damage starts to show up. 

That's how I see it going.

I can see this happening. 

What happens to the housing market is my question? I'm sitting on the sidelines with cash right now but I planned on selling my house this summer.

[lod001 1,344]

6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I can see this happening. 

What happens to the housing market is my question? I'm sitting on the sidelines with cash right now but I planned on selling my house this summer.

Buy MSFT or AAPL or INTC or some rock solid big cap that you are sure will recover. Don't think the housing market is gonna go too well for a while. All these people that live on top of each other, in tiny houses, will soon wish they had the 2.5 acres of buffer I have.

I got some INTC today. Going for some GE soon.  Freaking 6.82 now.

[Cdub100 3,907]

I have a friend who suffers from TDS. He's also very weird but that should come as no surprise. Anyway, he took everything out of the market when Trump won. I mean everything. Well he finally decided to jump back in Nov 19 with half of his life savings (which worked out pretty well for him). He then put the other half of his life-saving in Jan 20. He's freaking out and talking about how he can never win. I feel bad for the guy. He's a good dude, but legit suffers from mental illness hence the TDS. 

It really makes me sick how the Democrat controlled media manipulates the most vulnerable among us. Sad.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Decent article here that sums up a lot of the issues with the economy. I do think that it is even more impactful as we have construction jobs that are all being stopped.  I am not sure what industries are still working at normal levels.  I assume we will have to start changing what people make with retrofits of plants, but that takes time.  This will impact us through Q3 as far as I can guess.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/one-simple-idea-that-explains-why-the-economy-is-in-great-danger/ar-BB11iDFl?ocid=spartanntp

[nobody 2,671]

If you haven't seen the Bill Ackman interview with CNBC, I suggest you go watch it if you like panic.  

[vuduchile 1,945]

On 3/17/2020 at 7:55 AM, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Decent article here that sums up a lot of the issues with the economy. I do think that it is even more impactful as we have construction jobs that are all being stopped.  I am not sure what industries are still working at normal levels.  I assume we will have to start changing what people make with retrofits of plants, but that takes time.  This will impact us through Q3 as far as I can guess.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/one-simple-idea-that-explains-why-the-economy-is-in-great-danger/ar-BB11iDFl?ocid=spartanntp

I’m seeing residential construction doing business as usual in my area.  That’s probably because builders and their sub contractors  get paid for production, and not by the hour.  
 

Except in the SF area, all the flooring retailers I’ve spoken to are biz as usual but doing extra cleaning. 

There’s a store owner in Manhattan that reported high customer traffic over the weekend.  She is concerned that the city will follow SF and shut everything down.  
 

We haven’t allowed any new customers in the showroom  for the last 2 days, but we may change that.   There’s a way we could let them in, one at a time to shop by themselves  if they really need something.   We are still getting a normal volume of calls.

 

I assume large scale commercial projects where dozens of workers are present are being effected more than home builders.  
 

Anyway, I feel like once we break through this, there could be a big surge due to the pent up demand from people sitting on the sidelines.  

[5-Points 3,527]

On 3/11/2020 at 6:54 PM, 5-Points said:

It might not be the bottom yet but you can still reduce your pps. I've been waiting for KO to drop for a year. Never happens. It just steadily climbs. I might scoop up some shares on this dip. I don't see it dropping much further. 

Scooped up a chunk on Monday in the $42's. Since then I've seen it as high as $47 and as low as $44.

My average PPS is $40. With a decent dividend. I can still average up and be good when things shake out. 

 

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

On 3/11/2020 at 3:49 PM, MTSkiBum said:

 

I will adjust that down to 16,000. I did not expect the market to tank this bad before the virus gets going.

 

I will adjust this down to 14,000. We have not even felt the effects of the virus and it is tanking like crazy. My original estimate of 18,000 which was laughed at, seems downright optimistic at this point.

[Alias Detective 1,400]

7 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

My original estimate of 18,000 which was laughed at, seems downright optimistic at this point.

Congratulations on your prediction.  Im going to begin adding to the markets.  Take that.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

25 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Congratulations on your prediction.  Im going to begin adding to the markets.  Take that.

Sorry, I keep getting told I am wrong by a few posters and it was wearing thin. I was tired and I should not have bumped that post.

[Alias Detective 1,400]

12 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

Sorry, I keep getting told I am wrong by a few posters and it was wearing thin. I was tired and I should not have bumped that post.

No worries.   Most people expected a downturn in the markets anyway.  Everything can’t be roses all the time.  Again, this is a great opportunity for anyone  with a 10 year investment horizon or longer.  Try to turn your lemon into lemonade once in a while.  It’s good for your heart.  

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Low tech stocks for food delivery, medical supplies, cleaning supplies, paper goods are going well.  As long as the supply chain holds up. I'd hit these for the immediacy.