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jg8393

Mahomes in the 3rd round?

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I have the number 2 overall pick in a 12 man snake draft. Our league gives 6 points for every TD pass, so QB’s are always the highest scorers in the league. I really want Mahomes (no- I don’t expect last year’s production), however after multiple mock drafts, he hasn’t made it back to once in the 4th round, so the question I pose to you is the 3rd round too early for Mahomes? 

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I prefer to get a rising star than pay for what I know. I drafted the mahomes/hill stack last year in both leagues but I got them late. This year im drafting haskins  in that spot. 

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Yes but that’s where you have to take him. The value is always in hitting on late QBs, especially this season. But you pay the premium for a top QB knowing this and having a higher (theoretically, nothing is guaranteed) chance of landing a stud at the position with Mahomes. 

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I wouldn't take him.  He'll probably be in the mid-30's in TD's with a bunch other guys who likely won't get drafted for another 3 or 4 or more rounds.

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49 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

No way Mahomes makes it that far in 6 pt pass league. I would be all over that

My league has 6pnt td, a bonus at 300yds AND a bonus for 50+yd tds. This makes the top tier QBs pretty damn valuable and more viable to draft. Of course, it’s still better to wait and get the value top 6 guys, but good luck unless you are Nostradamus.

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8 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

My league has 6pnt td, a bonus at 300yds AND a bonus for 50+yd tds. This makes the top tier QBs pretty damn valuable and more viable to draft. Of course, it’s still better to wait and get the value top 6 guys, but good luck unless you are Nostradamus.

My 6 pt pass league is also bonus for 50 yard tds. Hill and Mahomes last year were a fine combo. 

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Unless one expects for Mahomes to score even close to his ff total last season, and I don’t , I wouldn’t take him in the third round. 

You will be passing up to many good Rbs and WRs. 

Im going to do what always works , draft a Qb late.  

Mahomes tore it up last season, but he was drafted as a qb2. 

Thats not going to be the case this ff season. 

Even the OP said they don’t expect him to score as many ff points as last season, I would wait, and let others lose out on over paying. 

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Oh no 35 is to high. It will be more like 30-33. 

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7 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I am going to have to capitalize on everyone projecting Mahomes for 35 tds. Laughable

If you take away 90 points from his total last season he would land about the third best scoring Qb last season. 

Plus you add less passing yards from those other 15 passing tds that you just took away from his last season total. 

That would make him about the fourth or fifth best scoring Qb last season, no where near being worth a third round pick. 

Hey thanks. 

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For kicks I went back and checked the TD drop off from the top passing TD seasons. Excluding Brady when he got hurt.

Manning 55 2013, 2014 39, drop of 16

Manning 2004 49, 2005 28, drop of 21

Marino 1984 48, 1985 30, drop of 18

Brees 2011 46, 2012 43, drop of 3 One of only two players to have consecutive 40+

 

I think it’s very realistic to say Mahomes will drop at least 15tds to 35. 

 

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My league also has a 3 pt bonus for over 50 yds but no yardage bonus. 

Thanks for the input boys

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

For kicks I went back and checked the TD drop off from the top passing TD seasons. Excluding Brady when he got hurt.

Manning 55 2013, 2014 39, drop of 16

Manning 2004 49, 2005 28, drop of 21

Marino 1984 48, 1985 30, drop of 18

Brees 2011 46, 2012 43, drop of 3 One of only two players to have consecutive 40+

 

I think it’s very realistic to say Mahomes will drop at least 15tds to 35. 

 

I was looking at those seasons you noted to look and see if there was anything that stood out as a reason as to why those drop offs happened.

Manning 2013: D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Welker, and Decker accounted for 479 targets, 317 receptions, and 47 of the 55 TD's.  Meaning, Manning was super dependent on those 4 guys.  In 2014, Decker was gone and his 136/187/11 numbers were replaced by Sanders who got 141/101/9, so not much of a drop off... but Welker's production dropped big time (due to injuries I'm guessing), from 111/73/10 to 64/49/2.  These two instances were responsible for 10 of the 16 TD drop.  When you have 4 guys being responsible for 85% of your production, two guys make a massive impact.

Manning 2004 and 2005 was similar.  In '04, he had Harrison, Stokley, and Wayne account for 37 of the 49 (71%), of his TD's.  His two TE's, Clark and Pollard had 11 that year.  In '05, Stokley got no where near the playing time and got only 1 TD (down from 10 the year before), and while Clark's numbers were the same, Pollard was gone and no one really picked up that slack.

With Marino, it was Duper and Clayton.  They combined for 26 TD's in '84 and only 7 in '85.  Duper only played in 8 games that year.  My guess is that he's was the key.  In weeks 10-15, Marino had 15 TD's, those were the weeks Duper got most of his playing time.  Half of Marino's TD's came in a 6 game stretch that he had both Duper and Clayton on the field.  Pro-rate those 6 games to 16, you'll get 40 TD's.

Interestingly, with Brees, you had 3 guys, Colston, Graham, and Moore combine for 27 TD's (59%), of his 2012 total and then in 2013, those 3 combined for 25 TD's (58%), of his total.  Meaning, both years, Brees spread the ball around.  With KC, Mahomes did the same thing.  Only Hill and Kelce had double digit TD's.  If you factor in Hunt's 7, that gives you 29 TD's which is 58% of his total.

So, if you look at your examples, assuming no injuries, Mahomes and Brees are much closer in comparison when looking at TD dispersal.  Keep in mind that Mahomes threw the ball 580 times last year which is a lot less than what Brees did in both 2011 (657), and 2012 (670).  Thinking Mahomes throws over 40 is not unreasonable considering the system and ball dispersal.

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OK well no player as young as Mahomes ever threw for 50 tds. I don't see how there is any logic behind these arguments. These other completely different players, In a different Era of play couldn't repeat their big years, therefore Mahomes can't. Yeah the two are not the same at all.

Lets also remember how bad KCs defense still is

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Its only been done three times in NFL history, 50 that is, and never more than once by anybody. Sure Mahomes could be the first, but the odds aren't with you my friend.

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2 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Its only been done three times in NFL history, 50 that is, and never more than once by anybody. Sure Mahomes could be the first, but the odds aren't with you my friend.

It's a different Era of football. It's different than when Manning was playing. We are going to see some freakish td totals more consistently. Once head coaches evolve to realize they should be taking more advantage of the rules favoring offense, it's going to change what we think as possible. I will take the side that Mahomes will be close to last year's total

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

It's a different Era of football. It's different than when Manning was playing. We are going to see some freakish td totals more consistently. Once head coaches evolve to realize they should be taking more advantage of the rules favoring offense, it's going to change what we think as possible. I will take the side that Mahomes will be close to last year's total

It absolutely is a different era for sure. I think he will be close to 35-38 personally. If he hits 40+ I will be stunned and bow down to him. That’s an incredible feat even in today’s game.

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Ok, Well since were talking Mahomes, What about in a start up Dynasty League.  Heard in Dynasty young QB are the because they last so much longer.  Now is it to high to draft him at number 3 overall, all TD's are 6pts

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On 8/8/2019 at 8:25 PM, kujerry said:

Ok, Well since were talking Mahomes, What about in a start up Dynasty League.  Heard in Dynasty young QB are the because they last so much longer.  Now is it to high to draft him at number 3 overall, all TD's are 6pts

If you want to have the best Qb in the nfl for the next 10 years then yes draft him 

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No doubt he’ll hit 40 folks... TD regression for sure but he will be a better QUARTERBACK in his SECOND starting season in the NFL. 

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Howdy, boys

 

I play in 6 pt. QB leagues. Owners realize, of course, how valuable stud QB's are. He won me 4 of the 5 leagues that I owned him in, and that was with a few wiffs on first rounders (hello DJ and Fournette).

 

He will clear 40 TD's without breaking a sweat. Having Reid as head coach should not be underrated. I will be taking him in the first round of all drafts, regardless of draft position. There are a plethora of fine RB's to be had after the 1st round (Chubb, Williams, Henry, Mack, Jacobs, Freeman, Ingram, Montgomery, Carson and, yes, even Fornette....I'm willing to give him one more go with the change at QB).

 

Mahomie is just too good and valuable to have another owner besides myself own. If I do miss out on him because of a homer drafting ahead of me, I will gunning for Mayfield and then Murray late. Both have HUGE upside this year IMHO.

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Stonewall...I agree with you. I to had Mahomes last year and I am drafting 5 th.....If a homer takes him before me , I will have a stud RB at least or TE Kelce.

I have been at this for too long to not take a player I REALLY want and someone else take a round before me. Bottom line, I play FF for the fun of watching my guys (only a $100 buy in ) and I am going to have fun.....win to lose ! 🤗🤣

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7pts for all tds in our 12 man ppr league. after 12 keepers i draft at 2:6 and Mahomes could possibly be there. If i took him i would be chasing rbs rest of draft as davante adams is my keeper. start 1 qb 2rb 3wr/te.

I might just do it. guy can always blow up at any time. 5 point bonus for 300 pass yds too.

then that angel on the other shoulder says....hey stupid. Big Ben, Phillip rivers, Stafford, and Derek Carr, etc will be there in round 9. 

Decisions Decisions

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2 hours ago, Pinesprings said:

7pts for all tds in our 12 man ppr league. after 12 keepers i draft at 2:6 and Mahomes could possibly be there. If i took him i would be chasing rbs rest of draft as davante adams is my keeper. start 1 qb 2rb 3wr/te.

I might just do it. guy can always blow up at any time. 5 point bonus for 300 pass yds too.

then that angel on the other shoulder says....hey stupid. Big Ben, Phillip rivers, Stafford, and Derek Carr, etc will be there in round 9. 

Decisions Decisions

You will hate your team on paper if you take Mahomes early. Chasing RB and WR talent the whole way down and watching guys take great QBs all the way through rnd 9. Watching guys like Wentz and Cam go rnd 10. Stafford and Carr won’t even be drafted, there will be a ton of talent on the wire even for week 1 at QB.

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I wonder where those owners that one a title with Mahomes as their Qb drafted him last season, was it first round, nope. 

More likely a Qb two and 11th or later.  

So you where able to build a good team around him also, and he was your second string Qb to boot, and many picked him up as a fa.  

No need ever to draft a Qb in round one of a ff draft, unless it’s a Qb only league.  

I hope that Mahomes throws for 10 more tds the next two preseason games, I want someone in my league to take him with their first pick too.  

 

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

I wonder where those owners that one a title with Mahomes as their Qb drafted him last season, was it first round, nope. 

More likely a Qb two and 11th or later.  

So you where able to build a good team around him also, and he was your second string Qb to boot, and many picked him up as a fa.  

No need ever to draft a Qb in round one of a ff draft, unless it’s a Qb only league.  

I hope that Mahomes throws for 10 more tds the next two preseason games, I want someone in my league to take him with their first pick too.  

 

I took Mahomes around the 10th last year and won my league. My first round pick gave me zero contribution, so if I would have taken Mahomes instead my team would have been the same and I would have won. Too much over thinking here

If I was in the middle of the first round, I would take Mahomes in the first and probably hope Chubb falls to me in the second, which is a toss up

6pt pass td that is

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I know it goes against logic since QB is so deep, but still I would definitely take Mahomes at 3.2.  Maybe he won’t throw for 50 tds again, but you are getting a player virtually guaranteed to give you an advantage at his position vs other owners in your league.  Compare that to the RBs with current ADP at 3.2 - Mack, Kerryon.  Now look at RBs with 4th rd ADP like Carson, Lindsay.   I’d rather have Mahomes and Carson or Lindsay vs. waiting on Qb and having something like Brees and Mack.  

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Yeah but you also think he will pass for 35 tds, I’m pretty sure that’s what you posted. 

So once again he has 15 less tds that’s 90 less points plus toss in yardage for those 15 td passes, so by your own words you see him scoring over 100 points less then last season, that would diffently even him up with some of the other higher scoring qbs. 

Hes not worth a first round pick, now again most picked him up last season will 10th round or later then and even many more picked him up as a fa. 

 

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The problem with taking these huge breakout guys at retail price is that you will be worse than the teams who find the “Next Mahomes, the next Kittle, the next [insert waiver darling]”. It’s hard to find those guys I know, but that’s the game.

If your league has QB friendly scoring and bonuses, rnd 3 is not bad for Mahomes. Still not ideal, but it’s not as bad as tanking a 1st rounder for him.

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I think Mahomes can throw for 4500 and 45 this year.  Regardless of the scoring system, I will never take him prior the 5th round.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Mahomes can throw for 4500 and 45 this year.  Regardless of the scoring system, I will never take him prior the 5th round.

Ok guys, I'm convinced to wait. I do 80% of the time. I should of learned my lesson after last year in a 7pt all td 12 man league where i took aaron rodgers. 

still lost in the 1st round of playoffs with DJ, Davante and Kelce. 

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1 hour ago, Pinesprings said:

Ok guys, I'm convinced to wait. I do 80% of the time. I should of learned my lesson after last year in a 7pt all td 12 man league where i took aaron rodgers. 

still lost in the 1st round of playoffs with DJ, Davante and Kelce. 

You had a good season and good team, can’t blame yourself for losing in the playoffs.

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One last time I will say: Don't miss out on Mahomie, whatever the cost. He is on a different level.

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Glad it’s the last time, for the wrong messages. 

Dont draft a Qb in the first round. 

Thank you. 

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38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Glad it’s the last time, for the wrong messages. 

Dont draft a Qb in the first round. 

Thank you. 

Glad to see that you are still a drone making blanket statements regardless of league scoring rules, and ignoring the time-tested strategy of BPA. With an ever-changing and evolving society, it's truly refreshing to see that some things never change.

Barring injury, I predict that you will eat your words on Mahomie's upcoming season.

 

Thank you.

 

Deo Vindice!

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So the update after a few days on the board is roughly 55% no and 45% yes. Remember my original question was taking him in the third round 3.2 overall, and my league is 6 pts per TD pass and 3 point bonus on 50 yds+, I would never consider taking him I’m the first two rounds. With two weeks before the draft I believe I would take him, plenty of time to change my mind lol

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I guess what surprises me the most is that, with your leagues scoring rules, you expect Mahomie to be there at 3.2.

I would consider that highway robbery. Do you also get 1 point/10 yards passing? My leagues are similar and even if I didn't draft him, he wouldn't get out of the 1st/early second rounds in any of them.

If you are correct on your assumption of his availability in the 3rd, you are in an enviable position. Good luck.

22 minutes ago, jg8393 said:

So the update after a few days on the board is roughly 55% no and 45% yes. Remember my original question was taking him in the third round 3.2 overall, and my league is 6 pts per TD pass and 3 point bonus on 50 yds+, I would never consider taking him I’m the first two rounds. With two weeks before the draft I believe I would take him, plenty of time to change my mind lol

 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah but you also think he will pass for 35 tds, I’m pretty sure that’s what you posted. 

So once again he has 15 less tds that’s 90 less points plus toss in yardage for those 15 td passes, so by your own words you see him scoring over 100 points less then last season, that would diffently even him up with some of the other higher scoring qbs. 

Hes not worth a first round pick, now again most picked him up last season will 10th round or later then and even many more picked him up as a fa. 

 

I love how people talk like the season has already ended and Mahomes had 35 tds this year. 

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1 hour ago, stonewall said:

I guess what surprises me the most is that, with your leagues scoring rules, you expect Mahomie to be there at 3.2.

I would consider that highway robbery. Do you also get 1 point/10 yards passing? My leagues are similar and even if I didn't draft him, he wouldn't get out of the 1st/early second rounds in any of them.

If you are correct on your assumption of his availability in the 3rd, you are in an enviable position. Good luck.

 

 

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