My L. Bell Prediction was correct. What did we learn? Gordon & Elliot?

[justforbeer 39]

 Last year I said anyone that drafted Le’Veon Bell was a fool.

It’s not worth the risk of a first round pick.

This year we have two buffoons that are holding out for more money. 

M. Gordon & Zeke Elliot.

Now I’m not going to say that it’s a guarantee these knuckleheads will hold out and not play this year. What I am saying is it’s not worth taking them in the first round if they are not at practice and holding out. What we learned from last year, was that players will hold out an entire year and there is no guarantee that they will play. Taking the back up in the late rounds is worth it.  Acquiring Connor in the 10th round was huge for my team. It essentially gave me another RB1.

If you want to risk your entire season on picking a guy that’s not even signed, it’s your own fate. Just ask the owners of Le’Veon Bell from last year. Maybe they learned....

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

The L. Bell situation might just be an anomaly and not the trend.

Teams at the bottom of round 1 can now have a shot at Elliot.  Teams at the end of round 2/3 now have a shot at Gordon.

All risk and reward.

 

[oldtimer 84]

Last year I said Bell would be a bust and traded him.  I was mocked for it.  lol  I don't mind.  Many of us said he would be a bust. 

Zeke will be back.  He has zero leverage with two full years remaining on his deal.  Gordon is a different story.  He may miss some games, but will be back by mid-season.  No way does he miss accruing a year of work.  He certainly isn't even close to being worth what he's asking for, but whatever.  I would gladly take him if he fell far enough down the board, but in the drafts I have done, he hasn't slipped really far.  Yet. 

Zeke went at the 1.03 on Saturday in a $250 redraft money league.  I don't think anyone is expecting him to miss time, based on what I've seen.  I may not have taken him there, but in the comments part of the draft, the guy choosing him said even if he misses a few games, it's ok.  If you can't still make the playoffs with losing your top pick for only a few games, you need to draft better.  lol

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jerry Jones probably pissed off Zeke even more by saying Zeke who? That's a serious assh0le thing to say. 

I have been seeing Zeke go top 4 no matter what, and Gordon going in the late third. Is anyone else seeing this? If so, why the huge difference when both situations are similar? Just more confidence in Zeke getting signed? 

[Ray_T 591]

and the chargers have a history of not caving when players sit out.

If Gordon thinks hes gonna make em blink, he had better think again.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

I think Gordon is more likely to sit out a lot of games than Elliott because the Chargers don't need Gordon as much as the Cowboys need Elliott.  Without Elliott, Dallas is a 5 or 6 win team... double that with him.

[Kopy 491]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Gordon is more likely to sit out a lot of games than Elliott because the Chargers don't need Gordon as much as the Cowboys need Elliott.  Without Elliott, Dallas is a 5 or 6 win team... double that with him.

I agree with this. Plus, although the vet's hate camp and preseason. It does seem like it suits them well. I'd be interested to see if an actual study has ever been made. But to me. Hold outs seem to not be the same player they were in the season's past. Less production, greater injury risk. And Gordon already misses games. Just seems was way to risky.

All that is just the on field thoughts on both situations. Off the field. I also agree. Elliot, being a knucklehead with 2 years left, has no leverage whatsoever. Where as Gordon, at least maybe has a gripe.

The other thing I thought of is. Doesn't the Charger franchise have a history of not really paying anyone? For some reason I seem to think so. So they'll remain steadfast on their position in my opinion. 

My .02

Z eke is there for week 1. And Gordon comes back (what is it for an accrued season?) week 6. Plays and gets hurt.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

31 minutes ago, Kopy said:

I agree with this. Plus, although the vet's hate camp and preseason. It does seem like it suits them well. I'd be interested to see if an actual study has ever been made. But to me. Hold outs seem to not be the same player they were in the season's past. Less production, greater injury risk. And Gordon already misses games. Just seems was way to risky.

All that is just the on field thoughts on both situations. Off the field. I also agree. Elliot, being a knucklehead with 2 years left, has no leverage whatsoever. Where as Gordon, at least maybe has a gripe.

The other thing I thought of is. Doesn't the Charger franchise have a history of not really paying anyone? For some reason I seem to think so. So they'll remain steadfast on their position in my opinion. 

My .02

Z eke is there for week 1. And Gordon comes back (what is it for an accrued season?) week 6. Plays and gets hurt.

Excellent point that I didn't even think of.  Gordon has played in 16 games only once, in his 4 seasons.  Odds are that even if Gordon misses just 1 game from the holdout, he's more likely to miss mid and late season games due to injury, because I agree with you that it seems players that miss time at camp underperform more often and get hurt more often.

[Showboat 145]

The big difference between Bell and Gordon/Elliott is that Bell was already a free agent who was tagged but never signed his franchise contract.  Both Gordon and Elliott are already under contract.  Not only are fines mounting for them, but if they don't show they will get no closer to free agency......

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

24 minutes ago, Showboat said:

The big difference between Bell and Gordon/Elliott is that Bell was already a free agent who was tagged but never signed his franchise contract.  Both Gordon and Elliott are already under contract.  Not only are fines mounting for them, but if they don't show they will get no closer to free agency......

True, but they both do have some leverage... not what Bell had, but some.  Gordon will be a free agent after this season.  He only needs to show up by game 10 to get his 6 weeks in.  Do you think the Chargers will tag him after this?  I don't.

Elliott is in a similar, but not the same boat.  He's got this season then next year - his 5th year option, that Dallas has picked up.  His 5th year option is almost $9.1M.  If he holds out until week 10, do you think they'll honor that 5th year tender?  I don't.  I think that if he holds out to week 10, they trade him in the offseason - to a team who will pay him (Tampa???), or they'll pay him his due.

Either way, both do have some leverage.

[Ray_T 591]

I'm sure the chargers will be happy to let him sit.   They may try to trade him, but not until he has sat for a while.

[Bert 1,091]

13 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

True, but they both do have some leverage... not what Bell had, but some.  Gordon will be a free agent after this season.  He only needs to show up by game 10 to get his 6 weeks in.  Do you think the Chargers will tag him after this?  I don't.

Elliott is in a similar, but not the same boat.  He's got this season then next year - his 5th year option, that Dallas has picked up.  His 5th year option is almost $9.1M.  If he holds out until week 10, do you think they'll honor that 5th year tender?  I don't.  I think that if he holds out to week 10, they trade him in the offseason - to a team who will pay him (Tampa???), or they'll pay him his due.

Either way, both do have some leverage.

Gordon is not as good as he thinks he is.  The chargers will do the same with or without him.

Elliott is an idiot similar the Bell.  Bell lost a year and 14.5 million he will never make back to sign for essentially the same amount Pittsburgh was offering.  Losing a year of service is huge for an RB his age.

The Cowboys can totally screw Zek.  They will only have to pay him 3/8 of his contract minus the penalties because he is under contract if he shows up in week 10.  They  Cowboys can then tag him in year 3 just to prove a point.  If he stays out like Bell did the Cowboys pay nothing and Zek has lost a third of his prime earning years. Jerry is crazy and would screw the team to show a player who truly has the power when you are under contract.    

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

To say Zeke has no leverage is dead wrong.   Zeke is making peanuts (3million).  He can easily sit 10 games and come back for the final 6.  This will allow him to accrue year 4 on his 5 year rookie contract.   Cowboy's season could very well be over by week 10. 

I think Zeke sits the first 2-3 games. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

47 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

To say Zeke has no leverage is dead wrong.   Zeke is making peanuts (3million).  He can easily sit 10 games and come back for the final 6.  This will allow him to accrue year 4 on his 5 year rookie contract.   Cowboy's season could very well be over by week 10. 

I think Zeke sits the first 2-3 games. 

 

Yeah, if they start 0-2 or 0-3, Zeke will be there in Week 4 with the biggest RB contract in the NFL.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, Bert said:

Gordon is not as good as he thinks he is.  The chargers will do the same with or without him.

Elliott is an idiot similar the Bell.  Bell lost a year and 14.5 million he will never make back to sign for essentially the same amount Pittsburgh was offering.  Losing a year of service is huge for an RB his age.

The Cowboys can totally screw Zek.  They will only have to pay him 3/8 of his contract minus the penalties because he is under contract if he shows up in week 10.  They  Cowboys can then tag him in year 3 just to prove a point.  If he stays out like Bell did the Cowboys pay nothing and Zek has lost a third of his prime earning years. Jerry is crazy and would screw the team to show a player who truly has the power when you are under contract.    

I agree with you on Gordon.  He should sign the deal they offered him because no one else will.

 

As for Elliott, he's making 30% of what he should be making.  I'd sit if I were him too.  He's going to get $15M+ AAV, in a new deal, no doubt.

[Enoch 1]

just ask DeMarco Murray how to deal with Jones..   The thing is does Jones want to show everyone who is the boss is? , or win games?  plus you have to look at it long term, Jerry jones can't pay everyone top money.  

[Ray_T 591]

well, Jerry has 2 potential holdouts.  I think it is far more likely he shows Dak who is boss before he shows Zeke.

That being said, I wouldnt necessarily put it past him.   if hes pissed, all logic and reason go away.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

You don't need a stud RB to win a Superbowl.  15 million for any RB is just silly.  If i'm Gordon, i'll sign that deal for 10 million.   If i'm Zeke, i'll take anything above 10 million a year.

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Agree neither is worth the risk. Zeke is in Cabo partying and groping women right now. He isn’t just going to roll into week 1 ready to go full speed. If they sign him, big if, he will be prone to hamstring injuries like I’ve seen a lot of these holdout boneheads get. That’s what happens when you aren’t in tip top game day form.

[FantasyRetard 49]

22 hours ago, Enoch said:

just ask DeMarco Murray how to deal with Jones..   The thing is does Jones want to show everyone who is the boss is? , or win games?  plus you have to look at it long term, Jerry jones can't pay everyone top money.  

You mean Stephen Jones.  Jerry's ceded the financial decision making to his son.  It's why the Cowboys aren't overpaying for players any more.

[FantasyRetard 49]

21 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, Jerry has 2 potential holdouts.  I think it is far more likely he shows Dak who is boss before he shows Zeke.

That being said, I wouldnt necessarily put it past him.   if hes pissed, all logic and reason go away.

I think Jerry's pissed at Zeke for all the times he's defended Zeke through his troubles.  As for Dak, I've said this before, if Dak takes the hard-line approach and demands at or close to $40 million per year, I say they let Dak play under his contract this year, tag him for next season, and draft a QB in the draft, letting him sit behind Dak for a year.  Then, let Dak walk and let him see what he's truly worth.  I doubt he'd get $30 million on the open market.

[justforbeer 39]

Let’s stay focused in the fantasy impact folks....that is what we are here for right!?

I do not give a damn if they make $10 or $10,000,000. The fact is, in this game, drafting these 2 is just stupid.  Roll the dice picks in the first 2 rounds is a great way to get last place.

update

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Melvin Gordon's holdout is expected to continue into the season.

I really do not hold a lot of weight to anybody’s predictions from Shefter to Rapoport or anyone else.  Just look what they said last year about Bell and that should answer all your questions.   Talk about people that are overpaid! 

The toughest part is who will be the running back for Dallas if zeke is not there?

[jgcrawfish 232]

My .02:  I'm not touching either one unless they fall to the 3rd round, and then only maybe.  I think the situation is a bit different, as Gordon sounds like he will extend the hold out.  To me, the biggest thing is that even if they both come back for week 1, neither will be ready for it and both are high injury risks at that point, at least for a few weeks into the season.  I'm likely not touching either of them unless they show up this week.  I won last year because I bet against Bell and went all-in on Conner.  No reason to buck against a strategy that served me well now.  

[FantasyRetard 49]

On 8/20/2019 at 8:10 AM, justforbeer said:

 Last year I said anyone that drafted Le’Veon Bell was a moron. 

Ah, the hindsight predictor!  It's always great to hear from those people who say "they told us so..."

[tanatastic 2,061]

2 hours ago, jgcrawfish said:

My .02:  I'm not touching either one unless they fall to the 3rd round, and then only maybe.  I think the situation is a bit different, as Gordon sounds like he will extend the hold out.  To me, the biggest thing is that even if they both come back for week 1, neither will be ready for it and both are high injury risks at that point, at least for a few weeks into the season.  I'm likely not touching either of them unless they show up this week.  I won last year because I bet against Bell and went all-in on Conner.  No reason to buck against a strategy that served me well now.  

Why waste a third round pick? They aren’t playing, at all. Won’t be playing when they come back either and injured when they do. I’d say rnd 7 at very highest. 

[jgcrawfish 232]

7 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Why waste a third round pick? They aren’t playing, at all. Won’t be playing when they come back either and injured when they do. I’d say rnd 7 at very highest. 

Oh, i think as i typed that i was actually talking myself out of them more and more by the word.  But I'm with you, no way I'm wasting an early pick on them.  

[SAA 12]

$10 million for Gordon is very fair. The Chargers can't spend more, lest they risk losing Bosa, Rivers and several other big names next year. Need to plan ahead, which factors into this year's contracts.

 

[The Bard 11]

Gordon is a jag. Maybe a little quicker jag, but a jag. Plug in Ekeler and Jackson. Nothing to see here.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Compare to the rest of the league, over the past 3 seasons he was extremely underpaid based on his production (1,450 total yards and 13 TD a season avg).   That's probably rank in the top 3 in regards to production over the past 3 season.  If he plays out his contract he will avg about 2.66 million per season over 5 years.  At 10 mil, i can see why team Gordon isn't happy.   I think there's a case to be made that the Chargers owe him "some" back pay.  

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

On the other hand, the Chargers got a bargain.  They are wayyyyy ahead on the rookie deal.  If they cave now, they will most definitely end up overpaying.

Gordon have nothing to lose by sitting the first 10 games.  He'll probably be healthier too entering FA next season.  I'll avoid Gordon in all drafts and target Akeler (round 5+) and Jackson (round 7+).

[justforbeer 39]

14 hours ago, FantasyRetard said:

Ah, the hindsight predictor!  It's always great to hear from those people who say "they told us so..."

Actually, I had one of the hottest posts last year that started in August.

 

[FantasyRetard 49]

21 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

Actually, I had one of the hottest posts last year that started in August.

 

I was just yanking your chain just to see what you'd say (how long did it take you to go back and find that message?). 

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/08/cowboys-ezekiel-elliott-contract-holdout-ending/

Looks like Zeke will get his money before week 1.

[Ray_T 591]

20 hours ago, FantasyRetard said:

I think Jerry's pissed at Zeke for all the times he's defended Zeke through his troubles.  As for Dak, I've said this before, if Dak takes the hard-line approach and demands at or close to $40 million per year, I say they let Dak play under his contract this year, tag him for next season, and draft a QB in the draft, letting him sit behind Dak for a year.  Then, let Dak walk and let him see what he's truly worth.  I doubt he'd get $30 million on the open market.

I think that's a given, but I honestly do not feel that dak is good enough to franchise.

Dak is a game manager in this offense.  anyone saying otherwise is in dreamland.

for the price Dak is asking... the Cowboys would be better off putting a second round tender on him and bid on a free agent who can be a game manager or trade for a proven game manager who wouldnt command the same price tag.

I am thinking specifically about Flacco.   Hes not flashy, but when you have a strong run game, he knows how to manage the game, not turn the ball over, and do what needs to be done.

Tyrod Taylor could also be that guy.  hes pretty efficient.  does not turn the ball over, and his ability to run may open up the run game for zeke.   it might be a nice fit and would be cheap.

If you are thinking that these guys are not great.  you are right.   They are game managers and will never put up huge stats.   but they (in my opinion) are on par with what you get with Dak.

I do not think Dak is anything better than an average QB.   And you do not franchise players like that.

I'm not sure if Dak's age allows the team to put a tender on him, but if they put a first or second round tender on him, and another team offers to pay it.... bye bye.

That's where I'm at with him.  I dont think hes anything more than an average QB.  if they want a stud, they need to go back to the draft to try to get one.

[justforbeer 39]

LOL!  ha ha ha ha ha ha hahahaha....

"Darlington says", Did you just count on some ESPN reporter that a deal is getting done!?

OMG! Have you forgotten how many times Darlington,Shefter,Rapaport and so many others predicted Bell would play????

Stop the madness! When a deal is done, then you can count on it.  Some of you guys are so hard headed and programmed that ESPN is some sort of future teller/predicter of what people will do. WRONG!

Do not count it until pen is to paper.  I have to tell you, that these reporters are talking to people and it is all hearsay, Zeke's grandma's uncles cousin sister who works at the corner store said they heard the deal is getting done.  LOL

I can pull up anyone's post as it is in your profile.  EASY.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

ESPN's Ed Werder reports the Cowboys have offered to make holdout RB Ezekiel Elliott one of the "two highest-paid running backs" in the NFL.

In other words, more than Le'Veon Bell but less than Todd Gurley's market re-setter. That is surely not going to fly with Elliott, who is undoubtedly aiming to become the league's highest-paid runner. What had seemed to be a fairly routine holdout has taken on a bit of an edge in recent weeks. It is hard to envision Elliott missing regular season games, but the opener is in just 17 days.

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/2089/ezekiel-elliott

If true this is big...it means Jerry and his boys are caving in.

 

 

 

[FantasyRetard 49]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I think that's a given, but I honestly do not feel that dak is good enough to franchise.

Dak is a game manager in this offense.  anyone saying otherwise is in dreamland.

for the price Dak is asking... the Cowboys would be better off putting a second round tender on him and bid on a free agent who can be a game manager or trade for a proven game manager who wouldnt command the same price tag.

I am thinking specifically about Flacco.   Hes not flashy, but when you have a strong run game, he knows how to manage the game, not turn the ball over, and do what needs to be done.

Tyrod Taylor could also be that guy.  hes pretty efficient.  does not turn the ball over, and his ability to run may open up the run game for zeke.   it might be a nice fit and would be cheap.

If you are thinking that these guys are not great.  you are right.   They are game managers and will never put up huge stats.   but they (in my opinion) are on par with what you get with Dak.

I do not think Dak is anything better than an average QB.   And you do not franchise players like that.

I'm not sure if Dak's age allows the team to put a tender on him, but if they put a first or second round tender on him, and another team offers to pay it.... bye bye.

That's where I'm at with him.  I dont think hes anything more than an average QB.  if they want a stud, they need to go back to the draft to try to get one.

You franchise Dak because you do not have another QB option.  That's why you draft a QB to sit behind Dak and then let him take over the next year.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Finding a franchise QB isn't easy.  If you "think" you got one, you do your best to hang on to him for as long as you can.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

7 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Compare to the rest of the league, over the past 3 seasons he was extremely underpaid based on his production (1,450 total yards and 13 TD a season avg).   That's probably rank in the top 3 in regards to production over the past 3 season.  If he plays out his contract he will avg about 2.66 million per season over 5 years.  At 10 mil, i can see why team Gordon isn't happy.   I think there's a case to be made that the Chargers owe him "some" back pay.  

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

On the other hand, the Chargers got a bargain.  They are wayyyyy ahead on the rookie deal.  If they cave now, they will most definitely end up overpaying.

Gordon have nothing to lose by sitting the first 10 games.  He'll probably be healthier too entering FA next season.  I'll avoid Gordon in all drafts and target Akeler (round 5+) and Jackson (round 7+).

Gordon stunk his rookie season and was hurt and missed games in two of the other 3 seasons... plus, he's cracked 1,000 yards rushing only once.  On top of that the Chargers were 4-0 without him last year.  Gordon isn't very important to that team.  They have a good line, QB, receivers, and defense.  A "capable" RB is all the Chargers really need.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Theres so much that goes on behind the scenes.  Jerrah talking tough to the media but I wonder how bad this situation really is.  Dak ain't that great and it sure looks like Zeke is what makes this offense remotely dangerous. 

It's between Saquon and Zeke for most important (to their team) RB's in the nfl. 

I think Zeke signs soon......with the top RB contract

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

Justforbeer is right, it’s not done til it’s done. We heard many times last season how Bell was reporting that week, that day, that hour. Zeke doesn’t want to work for his money and will turn down any incentive laden deal. He wants to get his guarantees then take it easy and not play hard and collect the money. Doesn’t care about the team or winning. Not a guy I want on my squad regardless of contracts.