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AxeElf

Axe Elf Breaks the Seal

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On 9/2/2020 at 7:46 PM, AxeElf said:

First Update:  Acquired Demarcus Robinson for Mike Thomas in the first waiver period.

There were some surprising players dropped in the first waiver period, too:

John Ross III was dropped for La'Mical Perine.

Will Dissley was dropped for Dan Arnold.

Malcolm Brown was dropped for Trey Burton.

Justice Hill was dropped for Ty Montgomery, who was in turn then dropped for Trayveon Williams.

There were no DSTs on the waiver wire after the draft, but the Falcons and the Raiders were dropped for Tre'Quan Smith and Greg Ward.

And finally, a pair of FFToday poster's darlings were dropped, JJ Artega-Whiteside and Bryce Love, for Devine Ozigbo and Dare Ogunbowale.

They will all clear waivers late Friday night.  The only one I really feel like pursuing is Ross, but somebody will probly drop $60 of their $100 FAAB on him, so I'm not holding my breath.  It would be kind of nice to get a 2nd D for the Rams' bye Week 9, but I'm not sure one week of D is worth Bourne or Robinson.  Malcolm Brown might be, but I don't really trust any of the Ram RBs.

And that leads me to the first trade that is up for review:

Troy's Team sends Cam Akers.

Tampa Bay Bandits send Gardner Minshew and Chris Thompson.

I'm not a big fan of vetoing legitimate trades, but I hope everyone votes against that one.  QBs are gold in this league (and Minshew is in the top half), Thompson is now the most valuable of the Jaguars' RBs, and Cam Akers was listed as the 3rd RB on the Rams' 8/26 depth chart.  So I hope that's not how trades are going to go in this league--but hey, at least it was only $40.

Nobody went for John Ross III in waivers, amazingly enough, so I dropped Demarcus Robinson for him--fittingly enough, since I had dropped another Bengals WR, Mike Thomas, to get Robinson.  Overall I'd say it's an upgrade; AJ Green's health isn't a given, and Burrow is kind of an unknown, and Ross' health isn't a given either, but it just seems like he has the greater upside, if he starts putting up numbers like he did in the first 2 weeks of 2019 again (11 rec., 270 yds, 3 TDs).

Someone paid $20 for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, someone paid $15 for Malcolm Brown (apparently not a Cam Akers believer), dropping McKissic, and the only other player who was bought in waivers was Bryce Love for $6.  Someone then dropped Corey Davis for Peyton Barber as a free agent.  So McKissic and Davis will clear waivers Tuesday night.  I'm probly gonna keep Hines over going for McKissic, but dropping Kendrick Bourne for Corey Davis is kind of attractive.  On the other hand, Bourne has some early-season value with all the other banged-up 49 WRs, so it's kind of a tough call.  I'll give it some thought, but I probly won't put much FAAB money toward it.

The Bandits and Troy's team tried putting through their shady trade again; it was vetoed again.  Now they are pleading with the commish to change the settings so league approval is not required for trades.  lol

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On 9/3/2020 at 12:13 PM, AxeElf said:

Agreed.  This was a CMac for Ozigbo-type trade.

If people don't want to have their trades reviewed by their leaguemates, then they should join leagues where trades are reviewed by the Commish only, or leagues where no trading is allowed at all.  Trading should be a means by which teams can mutually improve their rosters, not a means for destroying the integrity of a league by artificially and unfairly benefitting one team only.  If he wants to trade Thompson for Akers, I could see that being a relatively even trade, and if one likes Akers better and the other likes Thompson better, that's their business--it's a legitimate difference of opinion.

Throwing in a top 15 QB in a 20 team league--where QBs of any caliber are obviously the gold standard--makes it a wildly unbalanced trade.  If it was a 10 or 12 team league, I'd let it pass, because QBs are a dime a dozen in those, but when the guy is going to be starting Taysom Hill at QB if he doesn't land Minshew, he's worth a lot more than a "throw in" to the RB trade.

And apparently, at least 9 of the remaining 17 leaguemates agree with me.

Akers probably cost more than Minshew and Thompson combined at the draft, but I agree that the trade is lopsided in favor of the guy getting Minshew.  Akers is basically Christine Michael.

You also shouldn't veto trades because you think they're unfair.  The funny thing about the trade is I bet some of the people who voted to veto it probably think Akers is the better side.  That right there should tell you it shouldn't have been vetoed.

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4 hours ago, Buttmonkey said:

At least you'll only lose $40

Exactly.  This is probly the most random season of fantasy football ever, so there's no point in making a big investment when it's more like gambling than investing.

Still, losing would be a new experience for Axe Elf, so there's really no downside here.

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 "Dobby has come to protect, even if he does have to shut his ears in the oven door.''

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Looking at the teams I'd install Lavanya, JaSab, And Quaranteam as the favorites, but The virus is going to be in the hunt. 

My concern with Elf's team is he'll be consistent week to week, but he doesn't have any star power and no one on his bench is going to become a winning lottery ticket.  I think he would've been well served to grab one or two guys that have a high ceiling instead of going with all high floor/low ceiling guys to fill out his bench. 

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

Looking at the teams I'd install Lavanya, JaSab, And Quaranteam as the favorites, but The virus is going to be in the hunt. 

My concern with Elf's team is he'll be consistent week to week, but he doesn't have any star power and no one on his bench is going to become a winning lottery ticket.  I think he would've been well served to grab one or two guys that have a high ceiling instead of going with all high floor/low ceiling guys to fill out his bench. 

I considered my replacement for Mike Thomas to be one of those guys--Demarcus Robinson averaged over 15 fantasy points per week when Tyreek Hill missed time early in 2019, having some rapport with Mahomes from their days on the second team.

But the guy I replaced Robinson with is definitely one of those guys--John Ross averaged 28 fantasy points per week out of the gate in 2019, and that was with Andy Dalton.  If Burrow is as advertised, and maybe AJ Green doesn't play all year, Ross definitely has lottery ticket upside.

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On 9/5/2020 at 10:56 AM, AxeElf said:

Nobody went for John Ross III in waivers, amazingly enough, so I dropped Demarcus Robinson for him--fittingly enough, since I had dropped another Bengals WR, Mike Thomas, to get Robinson.  Overall I'd say it's an upgrade; AJ Green's health isn't a given, and Burrow is kind of an unknown, and Ross' health isn't a given either, but it just seems like he has the greater upside, if he starts putting up numbers like he did in the first 2 weeks of 2019 again (11 rec., 270 yds, 3 TDs).

Someone paid $20 for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, someone paid $15 for Malcolm Brown (apparently not a Cam Akers believer), dropping McKissic, and the only other player who was bought in waivers was Bryce Love for $6.  Someone then dropped Corey Davis for Peyton Barber as a free agent.  So McKissic and Davis will clear waivers Tuesday night.  I'm probly gonna keep Hines over going for McKissic, but dropping Kendrick Bourne for Corey Davis is kind of attractive.  On the other hand, Bourne has some early-season value with all the other banged-up 49 WRs, so it's kind of a tough call.  I'll give it some thought, but I probly won't put much FAAB money toward it.

The Bandits and Troy's team tried putting through their shady trade again; it was vetoed again.  Now they are pleading with the commish to change the settings so league approval is not required for trades.  lol

I would say Ross health isn’t a given. 

Even though Green missed all of 2019, he’s still as played in one more game then Ross over the last three seasons, that’s since Ross has been in the NFL. 

Thanks. 

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7 hours ago, posty said:

It is all luck anyway...

100%

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On 9/5/2020 at 12:56 PM, AxeElf said:

Someone paid $20 for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, someone paid $15 for Malcolm Brown (apparently not a Cam Akers believer), dropping McKissic, and the only other player who was bought in waivers was Bryce Love for $6.  Someone then dropped Corey Davis for Peyton Barber as a free agent.  So McKissic and Davis will clear waivers Tuesday night.  I'm probly gonna keep Hines over going for McKissic, but dropping Kendrick Bourne for Corey Davis is kind of attractive.  On the other hand, Bourne has some early-season value with all the other banged-up 49 WRs, so it's kind of a tough call.  I'll give it some thought, but I probly won't put much FAAB money toward it.

Well, I had pretty much convinced myself that I was going to put in a $0 waiver claim for Corey Davis, dropping Kendrick Bourne.  I think it may actually hurt me a little in the first few weeks, because Bourne was likely to get some play with a lot of the 49ers' WRs a little banged up.  But with everyone healthy, Bourne becomes like the WR5 for a run-first team, and while Corey Davis also plays for a run-first team, he's at least the #2 receiving target on HIS team--so that's got to be a bit of an upgrade over the long run.

But when I got to the site to put in the claim, I saw that someone had already picked up McKissic for $1.  I saw then that I had misread the waiver date; they cleared last night, not tonight.

Fortunately, no one had claimed Corey Davis from waivers (really?  in a 20 team league?), so I made the swap.

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Davis to me is a long forgotten man.  I straight picked him up in some of my deeper dynasty leagues with cuts.

 

He was within about 10 targets of AJ Brown last year so maybe they even out a little more.  

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2 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Davis to me is a long forgotten man.  I straight picked him up in some of my deeper dynasty leagues with cuts.

He was within about 10 targets of AJ Brown last year so maybe they even out a little more.  

I think AJ will continue to be the main man, but I'm axually kind of interested to see how Corey Davis responds to NOT being the main man any more--maybe getting the lesser focus in coverages will be good for him.  I remember he was a beast at Western Michigan--3 straight years of 1400 yard, 15 TD seasons--so he's been held far under his potential as a lead WR in the NFL.  Now that he doesn't have to be the WR1, let's see what he can do against teams' lesser corners.

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Titans must be happy with his lack of production 

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Two Week Update:

Let's start by assessing the "Studs and Duds" team after two weeks:

McCaffrey $84 - Out 4-6 weeks

Barkley $79 - Out for the season

Boyd $25 - 1 decent week, 1 ghost week

Samuel $13 - Hasn't played yet.

Harris $13 - Hasn't played yet.

Cousins $11 - Earned 1.5 points in Week 2.

Jefferson $9 - Has been behind Olabisi.

Vikings Defense $7 - lol

Irv Smith $2 - has 2 catches this year

At least he handcuffed Barkley with Gallman for $1 - oops.

On the plus side, Logan Thomas ($1) and the Washington DST ($1) have proven to be solid choices, and Claypool ($1) is like his WR2 right now.

Obviously, this team is 0-2 and not going anywhere.

So, for people who thought this was a good team and a solid draft strategy, let that be a lesson to you.

And now, the question on everyone's minds--How is Axe Elf doing?

Current Roster

Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock (IR)

Raheem Mostert, Ronald Jones, Jordan Howard, Nyheim Hines

Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, John Ross III

Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox

Los Angeles Rams

After the 4th-highest score in Week 1 (even with Hines on the bench), I posted the 2nd-lowest score in Week 2.  That happens when your QB is a game-time scratch and you get 7 total points out of 2 of your 3 WRs (flexed Williams at KC over Davis to couple up with Tyrod).  I'm sitting at 1-1.

So after thinking I'd be able to squeak through the year with Tyrod Taylor and Drew Lock at QB, my position of weakness suddenly becomes a position of critical need.  It's possible Lynn is telling the truth about starting Tyrod if he's healthy, but if not, I have 0 QBs in a 20 team league where all the starters and most of the better backups are already rostered.  Ugh.

Of my $100 FA budget, I bid $85 on Jeff Driskel (drop Ross) and $15 on Drew Sample (drop Ebron).

Stop.  It's not THAT funny.

It's a 20 team league.  Everyone and their backup is already rostered.  It's not likely that there will be any league-winners appearing on the waiver wire later in the year, and if I lose a stud for any significant length of time I'm probly screwed anyway.  If I don't have any QB to start over the next few weeks, I'm already screwed.  So I may as well guarantee myself a QB all season (except Denver's bye) and hope that my depth at the skill positions sees me through.

And, I don't have to do waivers in this league any more all season!  (I can still do $0 waiver/FA adds.)

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I was curious how things were going.  I knew the Mostert injury would be big for you, but didn’t remember the two QBs you had.  Definitely a tough week 2 for you.  I’ve never even considered doing a 20 team league, so hats off.  Good luck the rest of the way.

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8 minutes ago, JagFan said:

I was curious how things were going.  I knew the Mostert injury would be big for you, but didn’t remember the two QBs you had.  Definitely a tough week 2 for you.  I’ve never even considered doing a 20 team league, so hats off.  Good luck the rest of the way.

Yeah, I really need for Mostert not to miss more than one week.

Glad I drafted for depth, but even that's being stretched at the moment.

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I still wonder if we will see Alex Smith in Washington before year end. My gut tells me Brees won’t finish the season. 
 

Axe, what led you to opting Sample over Schultz?  I’m going w the rookie qb factor but curious.

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25 minutes ago, DrG said:

Axe, what led you to opting Sample over Schultz?  I’m going w the rookie qb factor but curious.

Before the last Thursday game, I noticed that Uzomah was tied for the 2nd-most targets from Burrow in his first game.  Cleveland had allowed a monster game to Mark Andrews the week before.  I was searching for a TE in a league where I had drafted only Eric Ebron at the position, so I took a flyer and picked up Uzomah about an hour before the game.

Sure enough, he got 4 for 42 and a TD, but then he got hurt and Burrow started targeting Drew Sample like he was the only player on the field.  I'm sure that some of it had to do with the Browns taking away the deep ball in garbage time and allowing the completions underneath, but it's clear that the TE is going to be a big part of the Cincinnati offense.  Between Sample and Uzomah, they had 11 receptions on 15 targets for 87 yards and a TD.  AJ Green only had 13 targets.

Schultz has many more mouths to feed around him, and Dak has never been as fond of targeting his TE as Romo was.  Between Zeke and Dak running in the red zone, and three top-notch WRs ahead of him, there just don't seem to be enough opportunities there for Schultz to be anything more than a TD-dependent bye week flyer.

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Those injuries are rough, especially in an ultra deep league. Hopefully Drisky can pay some dividends.

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On 9/8/2020 at 5:53 PM, Matt Mueller said:

Davis to me is a long forgotten man.  I straight picked him up in some of my deeper dynasty leagues with cuts.

 

He was within about 10 targets of AJ Brown last year so maybe they even out a little more.  

Agreed, with his size there is no reason why he couldn't be more of a redzone threat... I'm surprised he hasnt caught more than 4TDs in a season... Someone with that build should be 6-8 guaranteed. 

I don't own any of Davis, but I'm very curious to see his usage this season.

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Well, I got Driskel, but I didn't get Sample (someone bid $31 on him), so I still have $15 FAAB left.  Whee!

Someone bid their full $100 on Matt Breida--that's how competitive these waivers are.  I'm axually kind of surprised that one of the teams with no QBs didn't drop their hundo on Driskel too, but fortunately, he's not a known commodity (like Brissett or something), so I guess people who didn't own Drew Lock weren't willing to gamble their whole FAAB on a QB for a month.

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Thanks for the reply. Took a flier also on Allie-Cox. Catching in traffic could make him a Rivers favorite

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17 minutes ago, DrG said:

Thanks for the reply. Took a flier also on Allie-Cox. Catching in traffic could make him a Rivers favorite

Yep, Rivers does love his ex-basketball TEs.

I do think he had kind of an outlier week, though, as the Colts seemed to be kicking the tires on both Alie-Cox and Taylor, giving them all the work they could handle while resting Hines.  I would expect that Hines is going to have a few carries and a half-dozen targets most weeks, though, and that's going to eat into the production of both the rookies.

And then of course Doyle will be back at some point...

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2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

The Driskeling shitz is not a fantasy commodity even in 2 QB leagues.

This is a 1 QB league, but you might have missed the part about 20 teams.  When both your QBs go down in the same week, the backup to one of them is indeed a valuable commodity.

When scores are in the 80-100 range, just getting 10-12 points at QB instead of a 0 is huge.

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46 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

This is a 1 QB league, but you might have missed the part about 20 teams.  When both your QBs go down in the same week, the backup to one of them is indeed a valuable commodity.

When scores are in the 80-100 range, just getting 10-12 points at QB instead of a 0 is huge.

Jesus 20 teams, after last week some of those teams have got to look pretty rough.

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6 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Jesus 20 teams, after last week some of those teams have got to look pretty rough.

Yeah, scroll up to see a report on the team that drafted McCaffrey and Barkley.  lol

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You may need to go get Bortles now too just in case Driskell is who we think he is.

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I’ll hold Mo a few weeks and see. This is his opportunity before Doyle gets back.

i saw the comments on Driskel. He may not be a long term answer but he’ll get some points with his feet to make up for what he doesn’t always  get w his arm.

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

You may need to go get Bortles now too just in case Driskell is who we think he is.

lol  I saw that this morning... but really, there's no way Bortles comes in and starts over Driskel in 4 weeks, barring injury.  He's just insurance--but hopefully Driskel can stay healthy until Lock gets back.

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I thought there was a thread for bad trade offers, but I couldn't find it, so I'll put this here, as it was in this league.

So to recap, I drafted Ebron and Doyle at TE, and picked up Alie-Cox.  I drafted RaMo, RoJo, JoHo, and Nyheim Hines at RB, and always remember, this is a 20-team league.

A guy offered me Jordan Reed for Nyheim Hines.

I sent back something like, "I'm pretty set at TE, so the chances of me trading away Hines for the backup to one of the best TEs in the league are already infinitesimally small--but they reduce to zero while Mostert is injured.  lol  WHAT WERE YOU THINKING???

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On 9/23/2020 at 7:29 AM, rallo said:

Agreed, with his size there is no reason why he couldn't be more of a redzone threat... I'm surprised he hasnt caught more than 4TDs in a season... Someone with that build should be 6-8 guaranteed. 

I don't own any of Davis, but I'm very curious to see his usage this season.

well, he had Mariota throwinig him the ball.  that didnt help.

I think he still has some upside.   he should defiinitely be rostered in a 20 team league.

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On 9/23/2020 at 10:54 PM, AxeElf said:

lol  I saw that this morning... but really, there's no way Bortles comes in and starts over Driskel in 4 weeks, barring injury.  He's just insurance--but hopefully Driskel can stay healthy until Lock gets back

at the pro level, it would be irresponsible to trade or sign a QB and then start him in less than 3 weeks. 

There is too much for the QB to learn.   Even at the College level it would be tough unless you ran a very simple offense to begin with.

ii think your estimate of 4 weeks is about right.  if Driiskel sucks bad, you pickup Bortles in 2 weeks.(maybe 3) as insurance unless it looks like Lock is back soon.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Brett Rypien is now the QB for Denver. The Driskeling shitz era is over.

I wouldn't say he's a Lock...

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44 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I wouldn't say he's a Lock...

Are you trying to get Foles or has he already been scooped up?  

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35 minutes ago, nobody said:

Are you trying to get Foles or has he already been scooped up?  

I wouldn't get him with my measly $15 FAAB left, but he was drafted anyway--same owner paid $5 for Trubisky and $7 for Foles (lol)--20 team league, remember?

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