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jrokh

Julio Jones Traded to Titans for second rounder

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As expected...

 

 

 

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I guess Tannehill should increase in value.  

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Given the Titans are inheriting the entire contract this is probably about as good of a deal as could be expected for Atlanta.

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18 minutes ago, nobody said:

I guess Tannehill should increase in value.  

A little bit. Loss of Jonnu + Davis limits the upside. But a guy to target later once all the big guns are off the board. I think this really helps AJ Brown...

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Tannehil up, Julio and Aj down, Henry up. Won’t be able to stack the box at all against him.

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40 minutes ago, jrokh said:

A little bit. Loss of Jonnu + Davis limits the upside. But a guy to target later once all the big guns are off the board. I think this really helps AJ Brown...

I’d be surprised if it helps Brown. Yes takes some of the attention away from him but also, presumably, opportunities.

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

I’d be surprised if it helps Brown. Yes takes some of the attention away from him but also, presumably, opportunities.

Not me. This is great for Brown. I watched a bunch of Titans games last season. Davis was always single covered, usually against the lesser CB. Brown had to work twice as hard to get open. Not anymore. He will likely be a top 5 wr on my board come august....

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4 hours ago, tanatastic said:

Henry up. Won’t be able to stack the box at all against him.

Agreed.  While he was in contention before, this pretty much solidifies Henry as the RB1 this season (barring injury, of course).

And we know Julio can't catch TDs, so Henry will bank all those extra red zone trips he helps produce.

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39 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

So on the Atlanta side, a bump for Pitts?

Minor but mainly a bump for Ridley. 

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$15M for a tweaked hamstring sounds like a lot of money. I will tweak mine for free.

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Every 12 or 14 team non ppr mock I’ve been involved in to date I’ve been able to pick up Gage as my wr5 or wr6. 

Thats not going to happen any more, I think he gets a boost. 

And I see more playing time for Hurst and Pitts , I think they both get a boost from this move. N

 

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5 hours ago, jrokh said:

Not me. This is great for Brown. I watched a bunch of Titans games last season. Davis was always single covered, usually against the lesser CB. Brown had to work twice as hard to get open. Not anymore. He will likely be a top 5 wr on my board come august....

Last season his avg points per game non ppr he was in the top five.  

So thats a real reach.  

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Jones said he wanted to go to a team with a Qb that has a big arm, big arm Tannehill has, but he’s a little limited when it come to be successful on those deep passes right ?  

I think this help A Brown .  

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Last season his avg points per game non ppr he was in the top five.  

So thats a real reach.  

The discussion was whether this was a boost for AJ or if this hurts him. Most people don't play Non PPR, I have no idea what his avg points in non ppr were and I could care less. If I ever retire to a depressed gambling city to spend my golden years commenting on the internet about a game that I never watch, perhaps I will be more up to date with 16 team non ppr leagues full of jamokes...

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Agreed.  While he was in contention before, this pretty much solidifies Henry as the RB1 this season (barring injury, of course).

And we know Julio can't catch TDs, so Henry will bank all those extra red zone trips he helps produce.

Henry was on contention being a rb1 this next season what?m

He was a rb1 before this move, losing C Davis and J Smith didn’t hurt his stock as a rb1. 

And picking up Jones doesn’t solidify Henry Rb1 ranking. 

Jones is going to second fiddle to A Brown in the pass game like C Davis was and will produce very similar ff points. 

And Henry was before Jones and still is ff rb1. 

Thanks. 

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4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The discussion was whether this was a boost for AJ or if this hurts him. Most people don't play Non PPR, I have no idea what his avg points in non ppr were and I could care less. If I ever retire to a depressed gambling city to spend my golden years commenting on the internet about a game that I never watch, perhaps I will be more up to date with 16 team non ppr leagues full of jamokes...

7th best avg in ppr, real reach ranking him in your top 5  on your personal wr rankings. lol. 

Thanks. 

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2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

So on the Atlanta side, a bump for Pitts?

I think moving Jones was the ideal before the draft, so I think so. 

They already have a good young te in Hurst, so I can see them using Pitts in many different ways. 

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8 hours ago, Mike FF Today said:

Given the Titans are inheriting the entire contract this is probably about as good of a deal as could be expected for Atlanta.

I couldnt agree more.

he may be worth it today.  maybe next year too.  but at some point that contract will be an albatross around the neck of the team.

The real winner here is Pitts.  He likely gets more targets as a rookie than he would have otherwise.  I guess we will find out just how good the kid is.

What would be funny is if the team played him as a WR and he lit it up there. (from what I hear, this is actually a possibility even if it is unlikely)

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

And we know Julio can't catch TDs, so Henry will bank all those extra red zone trips he helps produce.

Pretty sure Julio caught a TD back in 2017.  ;)

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2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

What would be funny is if the team played him as a WR and he lit it up there. (from what I hear, this is actually a possibility even if it is unlikely)

That would be tough for a rookie even though he's being drafted like that's the case.  I think losing Julio hurts him.  Julio would tilt the defense towards him.  No one there to do that now.

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2 minutes ago, nobody said:

Pretty sure Julio caught a TD back in 2017.  ;)

I think he had one year where he got a fair number of TD's but that's not his bread and butter.

hes a catch and yards player.   to me, that makes him less risky.  if depending on TD's thats always a feast of famine stat.

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4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I think he had one year where he got a fair number of TD's but that's not his bread and butter.

hes a catch and yards player.   to me, that makes him less risky.  if depending on TD's thats always a feast of famine stat.

I would usually agree with that, but Tannehill had 145 less pass att last season than Ryan had, that’s going to be a problem for a player that relies on those rec and yards. And Jones said he wanted to team up with a Qb with a big arm. Tannehill has always been known as a below avg deep ball passer, that’s going to be a problem. 

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11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I couldnt agree more.

he may be worth it today.  maybe next year too.  but at some point that contract will be an albatross around the neck of the team.

The real winner here is Pitts.  He likely gets more targets as a rookie than he would have otherwise.  I guess we will find out just how good the kid is.

What would be funny is if the team played him as a WR and he lit it up there. (from what I hear, this is actually a possibility even if it is unlikely)

From a contract perspective, Jones' contract will never hurt Tennessee, especially if it pans out the way you said.  His contract over the next 3 years, for Tennessee will be $15M, $11M, $11M, and that's all cash... nothing guaranteed.  They can cut him at any point at not impact to the salary cap.

I agree with Pitts.  I think Atlanta is going to use him as a hybrid WR/TE this year.  They still have Hurst who will probably be used more as the in-line TE than Pitts, so they don't actually need to line up Pitts there.  Depending on how good of a route runner Pitts and his ability to run the route tree, he could be used primarily as a WR early on with Gage being anchored in at slot.  The Falcons did at Mike Davis, so I don't think they're planning on being more of a power run team, so I expect them to throw the ball over 650 times this season. 

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I'm not sure that bringing in Julio makes up for losing Jonnu and Corey Davis in terms of Tannehill's fantasy value. As long as Henry is healthy they're going to remain a run-first team. Tannehill might be one of the most efficient QBs in the league but his opportunities and upside are still limited. I'd be selling Tannehill now if I could.

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'm not sure that bringing in Julio makes up for losing Jonnu and Corey Davis in terms of Tannehill's fantasy value. As long as Henry is healthy they're going to remain a run-first team. Tannehill might be one of the most efficient QBs in the league but his opportunities and upside are still limited. I'd be selling Tannehill now if I could.

Too bad we're not in the same league because if you were selling, I'd be buying.  Tannehill is now a low end QB1.  Sign me up.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Too bad we're not in the same league because if you were selling, I'd be buying.  Tannehill is now a low end QB1.  Sign me up.

In my league, Tanny was the QB 7 last season. Low end QB1 is the floor.

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6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

In my league, Tanny was the QB 7 last season. Low end QB1 is the floor.

Yeah, mine too (though 10th in ppg), but prior to the Jones trade, I was thinking he'd probably be a high QB2 this year because I didn't think his weapons were as good and I didn't think he'd get 7 rushing TD's again.

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28 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, mine too (though 10th in ppg), but prior to the Jones trade, I was thinking he'd probably be a high QB2 this year because I didn't think his weapons were as good and I didn't think he'd get 7 rushing TD's again.

Yeah, I factored Julio in that assessment. One of the narratives is the Titans are a heavy running team, which obviously is true. However, this often leads to stacked boxes, hence some of the awesome efficiency in the passing game. I predict more 11 personnel packages this season for the Titans leading to an uptick in pass attempts. For Fantasy a solid strategy is let others grab the big guns at QB and one of Tanny/Brady/Burrow should be there at a more palatable draft position...

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5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Yeah, I factored Julio in that assessment. One of the narratives is the Titans are a heavy running team, which obviously is true. However, this often leads to stacked boxes, hence some of the awesome efficiency in the passing game. I predict more 11 personnel packages this season for the Titans leading to an uptick in pass attempts. For Fantasy a solid strategy is let others grab the big guns at QB and one of Tanny/Brady/Burrow should be there at a more palatable draft position...

Agreed.

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I think we’ll see the Titans try to pass more, but I don’t see Tannehill having a total of 40 tds , I think this team takes a step back this season and simply won’t be as efficient moving the ball. 

Tannehill is still a low qb1 a very good double digit round draft pick.  

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6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think we’ll see the Titans try to pass more, but I don’t see Tannehill having a total of 40 tds , I think this team takes a step back this season and simply won’t be as efficient moving the ball. 

Tannehill is still a low qb1 a very good double digit round draft pick.  

I agree.  I can see 40 though, but that would be the absolute ceiling.  Probably 38 is the most likely.  I don't think 33 and 5 is unreasonable.

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6 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'm not sure that bringing in Julio makes up for losing Jonnu and Corey Davis in terms of Tannehill's fantasy value. As long as Henry is healthy they're going to remain a run-first team. Tannehill might be one of the most efficient QBs in the league but his opportunities and upside are still limited. I'd be selling Tannehill now if I could.

They didn’t use Jonnu enough and Corey Davis has been pretty meh his whole career.

That said, I don’t have confidence in Julio staying healthy.

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6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Too bad we're not in the same league because if you were selling, I'd be buying.  Tannehill is now a low end QB1.  Sign me up.

I think you’re vastly overrating the direct affect Julio will have to Tannehill’s overall stats. That’s why you’re the sucker I’d be selling to. Tannehill was extremely efficient last year, I don’t see adding Julio making him somehow MORE efficient. Adding Julio helps the Titans IRL but I think overall it hurts AJ Brown in fantasy more than anything. 
 

The Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so you expect Tannehill to suddenly increase in attempts and volume just because Julio is here seems illogical to me.

To each his own.

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Don’t think it hurts A Brown at all, I think Jones has a season similar to C Davis career season last year.  

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29 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I think you’re vastly overrating the direct affect Julio will have to Tannehill’s overall stats. That’s why you’re the sucker I’d be selling to. Tannehill was extremely efficient last year, I don’t see adding Julio making him somehow MORE efficient. Adding Julio helps the Titans IRL but I think overall it hurts AJ Brown in fantasy more than anything. 
 

The Titans bread and butter is Derrick Henry so you expect Tannehill to suddenly increase in attempts and volume just because Julio is here seems illogical to me.

To each his own.

Bigger problem for Tannehill is Author Smith left.

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That's a big offense!

They have the biggest RB in the NFL, and now the two biggest WRs, or very close to it.

Better bring the lumber if you're gonna stop the Titans

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30 minutes ago, polecatt said:

That's a big offense!

They have the biggest RB in the NFL, and now the two biggest WRs, or very close to it.

Better bring the lumber if you're gonna stop the Titans

Isn't Brown only like 6'?  There's a lot of WR's bigger than 6'.

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54 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Isn't Brown only like 6'?  There's a lot of WR's bigger than 6'.

He's also like 230 lbs.

Not a lot of WRs bigger than that, even Julio is just 220

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