Fumbleweed 426 Posted January 3, 2022 This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2022 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. Round One: 1. Jonathan Taylor 2. Derrick Henry 3. Nick Chubb 4. Dalvin Cook 5. Davante Adams 6. Joe Mixon 7. Ja'Marr Chase 8. Austin Ekeler 9. Christian McCaffrey 10. Cooper Kupp 11. Alvin Kamara 12. Justin Jefferson Round Two: 13. Najee Harris 14. Tyreek Hill 15. Aaron Jones 16. Ezekiel Elliott 17. Antonio Gibson 18. Deebo Samuel 19. Josh Allen 20. Javonte Williams 21. D'Andre Swift 22. Travis Kelce 23. Stefon Diggs 24. Leonard Fournette Round Three: 25. Mark Andrews 26. Patrick Mahomes 27. Mike Evans 28. Justin Herbert 29. James Conner 30. DeAndre Hopkins 31. Josh Jacobs 32. Mike Williams 33. Damien Harris 34. Elijah Mitchell 35. D.K. Metcalf 36. Saquon Barkley Round Four: 37. Keenan Allen 38. David Montgomery 39. Kyler Murray 40. Chris Godwin 41. A.J. Brown 42. Joe Burrow 43. George Kittle 44. Tom Brady 45. CeeDee Lamb 46. Aaron Rodgers 47. Rashaad Penny 48. Tyler Lockett Honorable mention: Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, A.J. Dillon Thoughts?? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bills04 46 Posted January 3, 2022 Chubb too high, with K. Hunt there / job share. // Gibson and Swift too high - again; job shares. Those are the obvious adjustments to me - "at this time." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 987 Posted January 3, 2022 Honorable mention: Darren Waller. Injured top players can recover in a year or less just look at your Christian McCaffrey ranking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 987 Posted January 3, 2022 I doubt anyone that drafted Aaron Jones will draft him that high or should with the AJ Dillon RBBC situation now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted January 3, 2022 I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex. "This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 987 Posted January 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, AxeElf said: I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex. "This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season." Totally, here's his numbers from week 13 - 17 WEEK OPP REC YDS AVG TD TAR CAR YDS TD MISCTD FPTS 13 Min 10 86 8.6 1 12 1 2 0 0 24.0 14 @Den 8 73 9.1 0 12 0 0 0 0 15.0 15 Ari 8 90 11.3 1 11 1 5 0 0 23.0 16 @Atl 9 91 10.1 1 11 2 19 0 0 25.0 17 @Sea 8 111 13.9 1 11 2 23 1 0 38.0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 591 Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Gepetto said: I doubt anyone that drafted Aaron Jones will draft him that high or should with the AJ Dillon RBBC situation now. it may be the same situation with Zeke in Dallas. obviously we will wait to see how things progress. but if its looking like a timeshare, that decreases the value of both Zeke and Jones by a significant margin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 A Jones was 14th in non ppr avg per game, I don’t think it’s a wise move picking him in the early second round. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 The entire third round doesn’t look good. Neither does the fourth round. Can’t wait for the updates. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
makindollaz 40 Posted January 4, 2022 49 minutes ago, weepaws said: Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. Then I’ll be the guy drafting him too high. Don’t see a reason he’ll drop-off…between RB injuries this year, and Kupp’s consistency, in full PPR re-draft I’d consider him at #2. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 5 hours ago, makindollaz said: Then I’ll be the guy drafting him too high. Don’t see a reason he’ll drop-off…between RB injuries this year, and Kupp’s consistency, in full PPR re-draft I’d consider him at #2. I’m sorry. But it’s still a long offseason. Hopefully you’ll repent. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
makindollaz 40 Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, weepaws said: I’m sorry. But it’s still a long offseason. Hopefully you’ll repent. In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice. Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime. I’ll roll the dice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, makindollaz said: In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice. Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime. I’ll roll the dice. Ok by me, which is why I say he’ll be over valued next season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 4, 2022 Waddle. And if Sony Michel has a good playoff run and establishes himself as the lead dog he’s a first four round pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JagFan 97 Posted January 4, 2022 4 hours ago, makindollaz said: In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice. Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime. I’ll roll the dice. Said everyone that drafted Lamar #1 last year. You have to be able to recognize outliers. Yes, he should be a good PPR WR, but there’s a big enough sample size to compare against this year with him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ST_Pete 3 Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, JagFan said: Said everyone that drafted Lamar #1 last year. You have to be able to recognize outliers. Yes, he should be a good PPR WR, but there’s a big enough sample size to compare against this year with him. However, only one year of him playing with his BFF. He literally has breakfast with the guy every day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 426 Posted January 4, 2022 17 hours ago, AxeElf said: I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex. "This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season." The projections are for non-PPR as was noted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Donkey 34 Posted January 4, 2022 10 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Waddle. And if Sony Michel has a good playoff run and establishes himself as the lead dog he’s a first four round pick. Akers returning, would avoid Rams RB, maybe if there's clarity in August will have to reconsider Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Donkey 34 Posted January 4, 2022 18 hours ago, weepaws said: Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. What don't you like about him,? other than the obvious that there will likely be some regression from his ridiculous output from this year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, Donkey said: Akers returning, would avoid Rams RB, maybe if there's clarity in August will have to reconsider Torn Achilles. Not a great track record for rb’s coming back from that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean Mooney 1,184 Posted January 4, 2022 Kupp is probably real close to where his high end would be. I mean yeah he is going to regress next year but say he gives you 70% of what he did this year. That would be (as of now): 97 catches, 1280 yards, and like 11 touchdowns. I'd take that even recognizing that touchdowns are fluky to predict. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Speedy G 0 Posted January 4, 2022 1. Taylor 2. Henry 3. Eckler 4. Cook 5. Mixon 6. Adams 7. Harris 8. Chubb 9. Kupp 10. Chase 11. Kamara 12. McCaffrey Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cavern 70 Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Torn Achilles. Not a great track record for rb’s coming back from that. I think it will be very difficult to determine that Michel is the lead back going into next year. Unless i'm missing something like Henderson is a free agent. the point that the lead RB for the Rams belongs on the list is true - i just don't think we'll know who that is until the season gets underway Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted January 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Fumbleweed said: The projections are for non-PPR as was noted. Ah, let me adjust for standard. "This rookie WR has been in the top 10 standard WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 16.4 standard ppg over the last five weeks of the season." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,117 Posted January 4, 2022 Jonathan Taylor is on pace for almost 425 touches this season... assuming 2 playoff games. So, he's going to get hurt next year, right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, cavern said: I think it will be very difficult to determine that Michel is the lead back going into next year. Unless i'm missing something like Henderson is a free agent. the point that the lead RB for the Rams belongs on the list is true - i just don't think we'll know who that is until the season gets underway Michel is much better than Henderson. I think that part of the debate is over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted January 4, 2022 43 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Michel is much better than Henderson. By what metric? Henderson rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on 149 attempts, Michel averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 187 attempts, behind presumably the same offensive line. Henderson caught 72.5% of his 40 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception; Michel caught 69.0% of his 29 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception. Henderson scored 5 rushing and 3 receiving TDs (all but one by Halloween/Week 8), and Michel scored 4 rushing and 1 receiving TDs (all but one after Halloween/Week 8). And Henderson has been playing through injury for many of the last few weeks, when he has played at all. So exactly what evidence do you have that closes the debate in favor of Michel, a guy who couldn't even find a role in Belichick's patchwork backfield? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 987 Posted January 4, 2022 Michel rushed for over 900 yards twice with the Patriots and will again this year with the Rams even though he wasn't the full workhorse running back the entire season, Whenever he's gotten the ball he's produced. Rookie year was 2018 so it's not like he's an old vet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 426 Posted January 4, 2022 You all are correct about the Rams RB being a shoo-in for being one of the top 48 picks in a redraft. But, Henderson, Akers, and Michel are all a part of the equation right now and so who ultimately breaks out of that pack (assuming someone does) is really an unknown right now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Donkey said: What don't you like about him,? other than the obvious that there will likely be some regression from his ridiculous output from this year I like everything about him, own him on my 12 team ppr, great pick. I just don’t see him posting round one numbers, but didn’t say he won’t be very good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted January 4, 2022 I think I might just draft Henry and Taylor in all my auction leagues next year; they both seem to be machines that crank out 20+ PPR per game and rarely if ever get hurt. With 360 PPR right now, Taylor is 45 points ahead of 2nd place and has 120 points more than any RB not in the top 5. Henry is STILL a top 12 RB in standard scoring, and a top 20 RB in PPR, even though he's played half the games of everyone else. If you double Henry's 8 game total, he'd have almost 30 points more than Taylor--and together, they'd have 30 points less than McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara and Zeke combined. Grab a 20 pt per week QB, and I only need to get about 60-65 points from the rest of my WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D lineup to score around 125-130 a week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 987 Posted January 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, AxeElf said: I think I might just draft Henry and Taylor in all my auction leagues next year; they both seem to be machines that crank out 20+ PPR per game and rarely if ever get hurt. With 360 PPR right now, Taylor is 45 points ahead of 2nd place and has 120 points more than any RB not in the top 5. Henry is STILL a top 12 RB in standard scoring, and a top 20 RB in PPR, even though he's played half the games of everyone else. If you double Henry's 8 game total, he'd have almost 30 points more than Taylor--and together, they'd have 30 points less than McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara and Zeke combined. Grab a 20 pt per week QB, and I only need to get about 60-65 points from the rest of my WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D lineup to score around 125-130 a week. They're like Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander in their prime. I will consider doing this in my auction league. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 5, 2022 5 hours ago, AxeElf said: By what metric? Henderson rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on 149 attempts, Michel averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 187 attempts, behind presumably the same offensive line. Henderson caught 72.5% of his 40 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception; Michel caught 69.0% of his 29 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception. Henderson scored 5 rushing and 3 receiving TDs (all but one by Halloween/Week 8), and Michel scored 4 rushing and 1 receiving TDs (all but one after Halloween/Week 8). And Henderson has been playing through injury for many of the last few weeks, when he has played at all. So exactly what evidence do you have that closes the debate in favor of Michel, a guy who couldn't even find a role in Belichick's patchwork backfield? Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 5, 2022 As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Oh, ok, so not much better at football then; just much better at staying healthy. I wonder if that will be enough to win the starting job next year... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, weepaws said: As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41. Did you miss the part where I clearly said he pulls himself out of games? Don’t be so eager young man. Take your time, it’s better when it lasts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted January 5, 2022 6 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. 2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Did you miss the part where I clearly said he pulls himself out of games? Don’t be so eager young man. Take your time, it’s better when it lasts. I did see that, impressive. 4 hours ago, weepaws said: As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41. Did you see mine? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 12,650 Posted January 5, 2022 6 hours ago, weepaws said: I did see that, impressive. Did you see mine? Wow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cavern 70 Posted January 5, 2022 12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. Is there any evidence the coaching staff has made a decision that Michel is their starter for next season - or is it just your opinion? I think the point of the thread is who should be listed in the top 4 rounds of next year's draft right now. there were posters who thought David Montgomery had lost all or some of the job to Khalil Herbert while he was injured... I think coaches opinions of who their starter is are not as easily swayed as you might think. Cam Akers was drafted to be the guy. if he returns to 100% of his prior ability he definitely would be in the running to earn the starting spot. Henderson was #2. Michel was brought in to add depth. He's been VERY GOOD depth, but I have seen nothing to suggest that he's definitely next year's starter. Thus, he wouldn't go on this first 4 rounds list until word comes out of training camp next year that he's won the job. jmho that the OP's decision to not list Michel is a good one Share this post Link to post Share on other sites