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Gepetto

Stock Market bubble - will crash

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Trump crash won't stop.

Great job Magas!

Trump says he can't rule out a recession.

All dummy had to do was NOTHING.  Just leave it alone and let the Biden economy churn.  He focked it all up.

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17 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Down Down Down

Trump crash won't stop.

Great job Magas!

Trump says he can't rule out a recession.

All dummy had to do was NOTHING.  Just leave it alone and let the Biden economy churn.  He focked it all up.

Relax

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13 hours ago, HTH said:

Just went all cash.

lost $3400 today.

Had so swallow hard on that one!

I would be whistling Dixie out of my behind if I'd only lost that much yesterday. You're looking like a genius, at least for today, Markets down again with the main difference being, the defensive stocks that had been rallying while tech was dropping, are also red.  Apple trading around $222 I've been tempted to add to it in this area several times but when I look at the fact it's still selling at 32 x, I can't bring myself to do it. 

Kohl's cratering today. Something good will come out of it though. I bet a guy named Ed that when they reported today, they'd slash the dividend by at least 50%

If that didn't happen, I'd donate $500 to St Jude's, if it did, he'd make the donation.

They slashed it by 75%

 

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Deployed some cash today. Bought the stuff I know. GOOG, AMZN, AMEX, and WMT. These are long term buy and holds so fine if they suck for a year or so here.

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I'll give Trump credit.  He said he wanted to undo everything Biden did. I thought maybe he'd let Bidens gains in the DJ slide and just add to them.  Looks like Trump is trying to get it down to the 30,000s so he can build it back up himself.  At least he's standing by his belief that nothing Biden did was good. 

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Drop drop drop!!!! :banana:

Ready to buy in a few months 

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42 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

What are your expectations? 

That the market will average out to 10% per year like it has for 130 years despite 2 world wars, a global pandemic and 24 different presidential terms.  

Corrections aren't new.  Volatility isn't new.  Smart investors know how to take advantage.  If you're not smart just sit tight and ignore it. If you're dumb and emotional then sell now taking a 10%+ haircut you'll never make up.  

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GOOG and AMZN (the only 2 individual stock I pay attention to anymore) are still 4-5% above an entry point imo.   

Pushed a bit of cash into index funds at the end of the day yesterday being down almost 10% in a month.  Will keep doing that if it keeps going down. If not cash getting a guaranteed 4%+ ain't so bad.  Love being flush with cash in a high interest rate environment.   

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3 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

Down Down Down

Trump crash won't stop.

Great job Magas!

Trump says he can't rule out a recession.

All dummy had to do was NOTHING.  Just leave it alone and let the Biden economy churn.  He focked it all up.

What were your feelings when it dropped 8000 points in 2022?  I remember Everyone was ripping Biden as ruining the economy. It came back. We need to drop another 5500 points to match the 2022 crash so hopefully that does not happen.

Trump does need to shut his mouth.  When "recession" is all over the news right away people stop buying bigger ticket items.  Don`t say anything..just let it play out.

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9 minutes ago, CaptainObvious1 said:

I appreciate the great buying opportunity while you Arby's working libs cry me a river

Hey at least they brought potato cakes back for us.

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1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

What are your expectations? 

I don't have any.  It's something that is out of my control.  I can understand why someone that is about to retire would be concerned, but for most people it's nothing to get too worked up about right now.  The market is still very high compared to past years.

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

The market is still very high compared to past years.

Exactly right. People tend to get greedy. 

The S&P 500 tallied back-to-back gains of over 20% in 2023 and 2024

Compounded, that = a gain of 44% in 2 years. 

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1 minute ago, easilyscan said:

Exactly right. People tend to get greedy. 

The S&P 500 tallied back-to-back gains of over 20% in 2023 and 2024

Compounded, that = a gain of 44% in 2 years. 

"You're Welcome"

-Joseph Biden - 

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58 minutes ago, CaptainObvious1 said:

I appreciate the great buying opportunity while you Arby's working libs cry me a river

Would you like horsey sauce?

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This is not good for my mental health.

:(

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22 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Stocks go up tomorrow.

Dead cat bounce, major support has been breached.

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5 minutes ago, kutulu said:

Dead cat bounce, major support has been breached.

Correct. More than that though; key consumer inflation report looms. I expect good news from that and stock values increase.

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11 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I don't have any.  It's something that is out of my control.  I can understand why someone that is about to retire would be concerned, but for most people it's nothing to get too worked up about right now.  The market is still very high compared to past years.

Not to mention if when you are ready to retire the market is going to end up in that same spot, short term lower prices actually help build wealth over time as you average in your purchases.  

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Talk me down from the ledge.

Please.

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4 minutes ago, HTH said:

Talk me down from the ledge.

Please.

Stocks will go down again and more and soon. Take your safe money market 5% return.

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3 hours ago, HTH said:

Talk me down from the ledge.

Please.

Buy this book. 

All About Asset Allocation by Richard Ferri.   Read it. 

Stop making decisions based on emotion #1. Stop making decisions that arent based on sound investment practices #2.  Sleep well at night.  You're welcome.  

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20 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Oh look the market is down again.  Thanks Trump!

What is your projection for the S&P 500 to end 2025 at?  It is currently 5586 and started year at 5882.

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1 minute ago, Beaker15 said:

What is your projection for the S&P 500 to end 2025 at?  It is currently 5586 and started year at 5882.

I have no idea.  It all depends on what the insane person in the WH does.  If he comes out today and announces all tariffs are off for the next 2 years then we'll be fine.  If he keeps raising the stakes in the trade war then we'll probably tested 4k.

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24 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

I have no idea.  

Thanks for admitting this.  I know you hate Trump and celebrate when the market is down.  Your ignorance is on display daily.

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8 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

Thanks for admitting this.  I know you hate Trump and celebrate when the market is down.  Your ignorance is on display daily.

No one knows where the market will end up including you.  No ignorance.

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5 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

No one knows where the market will end up including you.  No ignorance.

Your ignorance is celebrating the down days and blaming Trump and acting like it is a lock that we are going into a recession.

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2 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

Your ignorance is celebrating the down days and blaming Trump and acting like it is a lock that we are going into a recession.

Just about all economists, pundits and smart people agree that the current market downturn is a direct result of Trump's tariff policy and the chaos that he has brought to the market.

You're calling all us ignorant?  Care to enlighten us what the real reason is for the sudden downturn?

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3 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Just about all economists, pundits and smart people agree that the current market downturn is a direct result of Trump's tariff policy and the chaos that he has brought to the market.

You're calling all us ignorant?  Care to enlighten us what the real reason is for the sudden downturn?

This simply isn't true.  You are getting your info from left leaning media that hates Trump.  We have had a couple of very good years in the market and we came into this year a little overvalued.  Pullbacks of 10% are normal and the underlying fundamentals of the economy such as the labor market are strong.  Corporate earnings are expected to grow a healthy 8% and the AI boom will continue to be a growth catalyst.  Volatility was expected with the initiation of Tariffs but they are more of a negotiating tactic and I do not believe they will be on long enough to cause any sustained economic damage.

The Atlanta GDPNow report you seem to love showing estimated -2.4% for 1st quarter is severely flawed.  Yes, consumer spending was down in January but that is normal after December as it was down last January as well.  More importantly, there was a surge in gold imports that GDPNow counted that actual GDP does not count.  That alone would increase the estimate by 2%.  Add in that with impending tariffs there was a huge surge in imports in January which distorted the trade imbalance and negatively affected the estimate.  Finally, the March 6th Labor report showed resilience in the Labor market and will add another .5% not reflected in that estimate.

In summary, the media and apparently liberals like you are assuming the worst with the tariffs.  Allowing other countries to apply tariffs on us for years made no sense and the reciprocal tariffs seem logical right?

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Papa Bear Buffett knew what was up when we elected the Orange Terror and was dumping stuff left and right. The Oracle indeed!

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3 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

This simply isn't true.  You are getting your info from left leaning media that hates Trump.  We have had a couple of very good years in the market and we came into this year a little overvalued.  Pullbacks of 10% are normal and the underlying fundamentals of the economy such as the labor market are strong.  Corporate earnings are expected to grow a healthy 8% and the AI boom will continue to be a growth catalyst.  Volatility was expected with the initiation of Tariffs but they are more of a negotiating tactic and I do not believe they will be on long enough to cause any sustained economic damage.

The Atlanta GDPNow report you seem to love showing estimated -2.4% for 1st quarter is severely flawed.  Yes, consumer spending was down in January but that is normal after December as it was down last January as well.  More importantly, there was a surge in gold imports that GDPNow counted that actual GDP does not count.  That alone would increase the estimate by 2%.  Add in that with impending tariffs there was a huge surge in imports in January which distorted the trade imbalance and negatively affected the estimate.  Finally, the March 6th Labor report showed resilience in the Labor market and will add another .5% not reflected in that estimate.

In summary, the media and apparently liberals like you are assuming the worst with the tariffs.  Allowing other countries to apply tariffs on us for years made no sense and the reciprocal tariffs seem logical right?

That's a cute narrative but it lacks any substance behind it.  Everything you pointed out regarding the labor market and earnings was from the previous administration.  What I'm talking about is the conservative Wall Street Journal that has called this the dumbest trade war in history and made the case convincingly that the decline started when Trump started saying he was implementing tariffs, then the took them off, then he added them, then he tripled them, then he took them off, now they're back on.  Businesses can't operate in this kind of uncertain environment.  Economies don't function in chaos.  It is the direct chaos that Trump has injected into the market that is causing businesses to pause investments, pause decisions and hoard cash.   This is a recipe for inflation.

Add to the tariffs the huge cuts in public funding and tens of thousands of unemployed and it's even more clear how Trump has orchestrated this entire problem and the market has adjusted accordingly.

The above is pretty much without question.

If you want to defend Trump, your only logical tactic is that all this chaos and correction and downsizing is short term pain for long term gain.  I don't buy it but at least it's a valid argument.  Your argument of "oh well corrections happen and it's fake news" is juvenile and ignorant.

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Buffett was dumping way before the election. 

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7 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

That's a cute narrative but it lacks any substance behind it.  Everything you pointed out regarding the labor market and earnings was from the previous administration.  What I'm talking about is the conservative Wall Street Journal that has called this the dumbest trade war in history and made the case convincingly that the decline started when Trump started saying he was implementing tariffs, then the took them off, then he added them, then he tripled them, then he took them off, now they're back on.  Businesses can't operate in this kind of uncertain environment.  Economies don't function in chaos.  It is the direct chaos that Trump has injected into the market that is causing businesses to pause investments, pause decisions and hoard cash.   This is a recipe for inflation.

Add to the tariffs the huge cuts in public funding and tens of thousands of unemployed and it's even more clear how Trump has orchestrated this entire problem and the market has adjusted accordingly.

The above is pretty much without question.

If we add up the number of federak workers who have been fired so far and those that accepted a buyout offer to give up their jobs, it represents less than 0.1% of nationwide employment.  

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2 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

If we add up the number of federak workers who have been fired so far and those that accepted a buyout offer to give up their jobs, it represents less than 0.1% of nationwide employment.  

He cares about federal bureaucrats getting fired for stealing tax dollars but doesn’t care when bidens economic policies shut down tons of businesses. Nor did he care that private businesses were shut down never to return under democrat lockdowns. Pointing stuff out is a useless endeavor 

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