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AxeElf

Axe Elf's 2022 Drafts

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One week until the season starts, and I am SO forking ready for this season to begin!

Four nearly perfect drafts, and my final draft tomorrow night; this season is going to ROCK!

I expect to go undefeated, and take the total points crown in every league by at least triple digits.

AND I got @MTSkiBum paying me back for last year's fiasco!

What could be better?

Oh yeah, FIVE nearly perfect drafts!

Should be kind of a fun draft tomorrow, 10 teams, pretty standard half-PPR scoring with small bonuses and 5 pt pass TDs, start a perfect pyramid of 1 TE, 2 QB, 3 RB and 4 WR, with 6 Bench and 2 IR--no Ks or Ds.

I'll let you know how it goes...

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And that's how you handle a 10-team, 2 QB auction draft with extra RB/WR slots!

I'm certainly testing the theory this year that you can get by on crumbs in a 2QB/SFlex league--as long as it's a 10-teamer.  This will be the second one in which I've come away from the draft with basically dollar players at QB.

I actually kind of hamstrung myself at the end, because when I got down to an $11 max bid, someone noticed I still din't have any QBs and started squawking "Axe Elf doesn't have a QB yet!  Nominate QBs!  Bid them up!"  Sigh.  So I din't know if I might have to pay $3-$4 for what I had hoped would be my dollar targets, and that made me hold off on drafting $3-$4 bench players, and then suddenly no one else had any money and I was getting all of my last 7 players for $2 or less--and that left me with $5 on the table.  Probly shoulda had a better WR6 than Doubs, but oh well.

It was otherwise another darn near perfect draft!

QB:  Marcus Mariota (14) $2, Mitch Trubisky (9) $2, Davis Mills (6) $1, Kenny Pickett (9) $1

RB:  Derrick Henry (6) $51, Najee Harris (9) $32, Travis Etienne (11) $20, Damien Harris (10) $6, Damien Williams (14) $2

WR:  CeeDee Lamb (9) $25, Keenan Allen (8) $17, Allen Robinson (7) $14, Amon-Ra St. Brown (6) $14, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (8) $2, Romeo Doubs (14) $2

TE:  Zach Ertz (13) $4

Remaining:  $5

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You assembled a fine team.  I, for one, think Mariota is undervalued this year.

  • Thanks 1

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Hats off to the schedule-makers, but I drew an amazing Week 1 matchup!

Not only are both of our teams projected to be within 5 points of the projected points leader, but the matchup will pit the two most extreme 2QB strategies in our draft...

I have two starting QBs I spent a total of $4 on--Marcus Mariota and Mitch Trubisky.

My opponent has two of the top three fantasy QBs in the league--Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes--for whom he spent a total of $64.

Will my solid lineup of top 10 players at each of the other 8 starting slots be enough to compensate for the QB disparity?  Will Osborn, Palmer, Akers and Gordon dig too deep of a hole for even Herbert and Mahomes to overcome?

This game will determine who has an advantage in the chess game of the draft strategies.

The projections can't decide...

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56 minutes ago, nobody said:

I, for one, think Mariota is undervalued this year.

The poor man's Jalen Hurts--who is also a better passer than Hurts, and who probably (thanks to Ridder's 2 INTs in the final preseason game) has a more secure grasp on the starting job than Hurts does.

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So my player distribution chart is a little shorter this year, since it covers only 5 managed leagues and 2 Best Balls.

POS PLAYER FREQ
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown 7
RB Derrick Henry 6
RB Damien Harris 5
RB Damien Williams 5
WR Michael Gallup 5
RB Travis Etienne, Jr. 4
WR Allen Robinson II 3
WR Brandon Aiyuk 3
TE C.J. Uzomah 3
WR CeeDee Lamb 3
WR Chris Godwin 3
RB Cordarrelle Patterson 3
TE Dallas Goedert 3
RB Gus Edwards 3
QB Jameis Winston 3
WR Keenan Allen 3
QB Marcus Mariota 3
TE Mike Gesicki 3
WR Devante Parker 2
RB James Robinson 2
WR James Washington 2
RB Jonathan Taylor 2
WR Juju Smith-Schuster 2
WR Justin Jefferson 2
QB Kenny Pickett 2
QB Kirk Cousins 2
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2
WR Marquise Brown 2
QB Mitch Trubisky 2
WR Robert Woods 2
WR Romeo Doubs 2
TE Albert Okwuegbunam 1
DST Arizona Cardinals 1
DST Baltimore Ravens 1
RB Brian Robinson, Jr. 1
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1
WR D.J. Chark, Jr. 1
QB Daniel Jones 1
TE David Njoku 1
QB Davis Mills 1
DST Denver Broncos 1
QB Derek Carr 1
RB Devin Singletary 1
WR Diontae Johnson 1
TE Evan Engram 1
RB Ezekiel Elliott 1
QB Gardner Minshew 1
RB J.K. Dobbins 1
WR Marvin Jones, Jr. 1
QB Mason Rudolph 1
K Matt Prater 1
QB Matt Ryan 1
QB Matthew Stafford 1
WR Mike Evans 1
RB Najee Harris 1
WR N'Keal Harry 1
QB Patrick Mahomes 1
RB Rachaad White 1
RB Saquon Barkley 1
WR Skyy Moore 1
WR Stefon Diggs 1
QB Taysom Hill 1
TE Taysom Hill 1
WR Tyler Lockett 1
DST Washington Commanders 1
K Younghoe Koo 1
TE Zach Ertz 1
QB Zach Wilson 1
  Total Players 130

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What's up with your love for Damien Harris? Stevenson is at least going to split the carries 50/50 in an offense that won't be one of the top scoring this year

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Stevenson will be the one to own.  

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8 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Stevenson is at least going to split the carries 50/50 in an offense that won't be one of the top scoring this year

This seems to be the prevailing opinion.

8 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

What's up with your love for Damien Harris?

Axe Elf knows better.

Incidentally, Stevenson went for $9, compared to my purchase of Harris for $6, in last night's draft.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

This seems to be the prevailing opinion.

Axe Elf knows better.

Incidentally, Stevenson went for $9, compared to my purchase of Harris for $6, in last night's draft.

I guess I hasn't realized that Harris had 15 tds last year. A very solid year overall, especially at the end. Still, Stevenson was about as productive on a ypc basis. But for $6 Harris does seem to offer really good value as a depth back. I may need to adjust my draft to incorporate him at his price

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1 hour ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I guess I hasn't realized that Harris had 15 tds last year. A very solid year overall, especially at the end. Still, Stevenson was about as productive on a ypc basis. But for $6 Harris does seem to offer really good value as a depth back. I may need to adjust my draft to incorporate him at his price

Stevenson should assume the duties vacated by James White's retirement, and probly even a bit more than that.  But Harris will still be the "lead" and the goalline back.

I'm loving the Alabama H-backs this year--Harris, Harris, and Henry!

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16 hours ago, nobody said:

You assembled a fine team.  I, for one, think Mariota is undervalued this year.

Says nobody!  Heh

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You’re top-heavy, one of your running backs goes down you’re pretty much in the tank. And I think Henry is the most probable player besides McCaffrey of having a disappointing year as a running back.

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12 hours ago, huskyhater75 said:

Nobody cares about your team.

I care!

More mocks please with your analysis, I have trouble sleeping at night.

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45 minutes ago, jeffkomlo said:

I care!

Never fear, little ones!

Axe Elf will always be near with facts, analysis, and drafts to emulate en route to your own Championship trophies!

45 minutes ago, jeffkomlo said:

More mocks please with your analysis

Yeah, unfortunately, I don't see much value in mocks.  I only did one this year, and it just left me wishing it was a real league, so that I could reap the fruits of my draft dominance.

So if I do any, I'll be sure to post them for you--but don't hold your breath.  Most fans find it more exciting to follow Axe Elf's REAL leagues anyway.

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This isn't technically one of MY leagues--though it could have been.

It was founded as a "challenge" league on another message board, which is probably even less populated than this one, and by probably less successful fantasy football players than this one, but of course they also think they know more than Axe Elf, so y'all can relate.

Anyway, they all wanted Axe Elf to be in their little "prove it" league too, but just as Mike Tyson doesn't accept the challenge of any loudmouth at the bar, it's not that easy to have the privilege of learning fantasy football by experiencing a league with Axe Elf, so of course I wasn't down for some random snake draft league with these bozos.  But they posted some of their results this evening...

"Man, that was one of the most random drafts I had in quite a while! From people drafting a 3rd QB in round 6 (in a single QB league no less) to the rush on Ds starting in round 7 to people drafting a backup D to people going WR-WR-WR-TE-WR-WR in the first 6 rounds - this draft had it all!

Also gave me my first and only share in Derrick Henry this season. Much as I am concerned about his durability, but in the middle of round 2, it would have been a crime to pass up on him."

Derrick Henry wasn't drafted until the middle of Round 2!  3 QBs by Round 6??  D run in Round 7???

I think this league was composed of chimpanzees randomly pressing buttons on the draft software.

The guy that eventually got Henry apparently passed on him in Round 1 for Najee Harris, so way to be rewarded for being an idiot, but his remaining RBs are Cam Akers and Nyheim Hines.

Let's just say we probly won't be seeing these guys in the Interboard League any time soon.

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Opening Night Recap

League 1:  No Action

League 2:  My Diggs (26.20) v. his Allen (38.48) and Akers (0.00) lol.  Still staring down the barrel of CMC and a Mahomes/Juju stack, but I'm only projected to lose 154-155.

League 3:  No Action

League 4:  My Robinson (1.70) and Singletary (7.20) v. his Allen (33.48), Diggs (22.20)--ouch--and Akers (0.00)--ok, that helps--lol.  I'm a 39% underdog projected to lose 130-143, but I've got some big guns like Mahomes, Jefferson, St. Brown, Henry, Zeke, and oh yeah the streaming darling of Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens, at D--so I have a fighting chance.  One of his remaining starters is Alexander Mattison.  Parenthetically, I also have Jefferson and St. Brown in League 2--so those two will be important to my Week 1 success.

League 5:  My Robinson (1.70) v. his Akers (0.00)--lol.  OMG!  I thought I was only playing against Akers in 2 leagues tonight.  I don't know if I miscounted before, or if someone swapped him in at the last minute, but I axually faced Akers and his Goose Egg in ALL THREE LEAGUES that had action tonight--including the two leagues in which my Robinson laid at least a quail egg!  Too funny!  By the way, this is the league in which I trot out Trubisky and Mariota against Herbert and Mahomes--and I am currently projected to win by less than 1 point.  However, my TE is Ertz, so that may be a problem...

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League 1:  Despite swapping in Damien Williams for Dobbins, who promply got hurt, Keenan Allen getting hurt, having the Arizona Defense, and Gesicki getting next to nothing, the 99.17 points I got from Taylor and Henry in this scoring system have me projected to win 225.50-224.50.  I have a 28 point lead with Lamb and Albert O to go; he has Prescott, Elliott and Tolbert.  When I saw Tolbert was inactive, I immediately dropped Mason Rudolph and picked up Noah Brown, as he is the only guy on the waiver wire who could possibly rescue my opponent from his zero.  So it's gonna be close.

League 2:  Up by 20 with Lockett vs Sutton to go.

League 3:  Up by 47 with the Denver D to go, vs. the Dallas D, Lamb, and Sutton.

League 4:  7 pt lead with Zeke to go.

League 5:  Will probly be a loss; couldn't overcome injuries to Keenan Allen, Najee Harris, and Zach Ertz, along with underperformances by Allen Robinson, Derrick Henry, and Travis Etienne all at the same time.  I've still got Lamb to go, but he'll have to outscore Melvin Gordon and Dalton Schultz by 28 for me to have a shot.

So shooting for 4 out of 5, mostly depending on the results of League 1.

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On 8/2/2022 at 6:36 AM, WhiteWonder said:

I’d have to see what all the QBs went for but spending $19 and $17 on guys who may not be starting after week 5 seems like a kick in the groin.

Mariota was the 5th-highest scoring QB in the league this week, and had the lowest cost per fantasy point among all QBs.  Trubisky was fourth-lowest.

PLAYER COST FANTASY POINTS COST PER POINT
Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB) $65 4.95 $13.13
Dak Prescott (Dal - QB) $71 7.95 $8.93
Matthew Stafford (LAR - QB) $67 10.05 $6.67
Tom Brady (TB - QB) $66 13.70 $4.82
Derek Carr (LV - QB) $61 16.25 $3.75
Mac Jones (NE - QB) $41 10.95 $3.74
Trey Lance (SF - QB) $75 23.20 $3.23
Trevor Lawrence (Jax - QB) $54 18.85 $2.86
Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB) $52 18.30 $2.84
Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) $79 27.95 $2.83
Kyler Murray (Ari - QB) $75 26.70 $2.81
Justin Herbert (LAC - QB) $75 29.25 $2.56
Joe Burrow (Cin - QB) $72 28.45 $2.53
Kirk Cousins (Min - QB) $58 23.35 $2.48
Justin Fields (Chi - QB) $59 23.80 $2.48
Jameis Winston (NO - QB) $56 26.55 $2.11
Josh Allen (Buf - QB) $96 47.55 $2.02
Jared Goff (Det - QB) $35 18.60 $1.88
Matt Ryan (Ind - QB) $35 19.10 $1.83
Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB) $73 40.45 $1.80
Daniel Jones (NYG - QB) $38 23.30 $1.63
Jalen Hurts (Phi - QB) $75 47.45 $1.58
Davis Mills (Hou - QB) $26 18.10 $1.44
Ryan Tannehill (Ten - QB) $31 23.75 $1.31
Carson Wentz (Was - QB) $38 36.45 $1.04
Mitch Trubisky (Pit - QB) $17 16.95 $1.00
Baker Mayfield (Car - QB) $18 20.95 $0.86
Jacoby Brissett (Cle - QB) $11 15.20 $0.72
Marcus Mariota (Atl - QB) $19 32.70 $0.58

And it really didn't matter, since I got 99.17 points out of Henry and Taylor combined in this wacky scoring system.  Thanks to them, I was able to face down Mahomes and Dak with Mariota and Trubisky, survive Lamb and Gesicki's no-shows and even the early-game injuries to Damien Williams and Keenan Allen to come away with the win--and I still have Albert O yet to go!

WINNING!

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All four of the dollar store TEs I drafted in that two-TE league (Gesicki, Engram, Uzomah, Albert O.) kinda crapped out this week, though Albert O. showed some promise.

Fortunately, I happened to pick up the top-scoring TE in the league off of waivers before the season started, so I plan to get him into the lineup with Albert O. ASAP.

Anyone?  Anyone?

It's Taysom Hill.

(With his dual QB/TE designation, he also outscored all but 6 of the QBs on the list above.)

WINNING!

Honorable mention for move of the week was when I saw that Tolbert was a healthy scratch last night and so I finally dropped Mason Rudolph (who I was just holding through camp because of banking on Trubisky/Pickett--and because of having huge benches--but was going to have to drop anyway when Gallup and/or Edwards returns) and picked up Noah Brown, who was the only guy on waivers who could have hurt me if my opponent had made the last minute swap.  I would have still won, but Brown's production would have been enough to force Albert O. to score, I dunno, 2-3 pts or so to win, so I'd have had more of a sweat than I did.  But he let Tolbert be locked in for the zero, so that helped.

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League 1:  I had no action tonight, but my opponent came out swinging with Herbert, Williams and Everett right out of the gate.  My opponent has taken a 63 point lead, and his projected points have increased from 203 to 211.  Faced Mahomes, Herbert and Allen x 2 last week, Mahomes and Herbert x 2 this week; can I please stop facing elite QBs for a while now?  Sheesh.  Fortunately, this is one of the run-centric leagues in which I just need to get my weekly hunnerd from Henry and Taylor, and I should be good to go.  Having both my Damiens and my Dobbins healthy would help a lot as well.  I'm projected for 229.58 with all 5 RBs currently in the lineup.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mariota comes close to outscoring Herbert too--but what would really be funny is if Herbert is outscored by one of my TEs picked up off waivers prior to the start of the season--Taysom Hill.  He outscored all but 6 QBs in this league last week (and all TEs).

League 2:  I had Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the rectangular octagon tonight against Travis Kelce.  CEH exceeded his projection by almost 4 points; Kelce came in more than 8 points under his projection.  Round 1 is scored for Axe Elf, who is now projected to win 146 - 129.

League 3:  I was already a projected 210 - 251 loser in this one, but after Juju busted a 4 point move (really more of a movement), I'm now projected to lose 197 - 251.  42 of those 54 points are attributed to the difference between the projected scores of his Brady/Stafford duo vs my Mariota/Trubisky duo, so with any luck, I can cut the deficit in half right there with another good rushing day from Mariota.  (This is the OTHER run-centric scoring system, in which I also scored a hunnerd between Henry and Taylor in Week 1.)  I'll need REALLY strong games out of both of my RBs if I want to make up the other half, because with only two other starters (Amon-Ra and Kmet) + Koo and the CIN D (vs Dallas), I don't have many bullets to make up for Juju's misfire.  So this one's going to be rough--but hopefully at least close.

League 4:  This one was the Shootout at the OK Corral between Mahomes on my team and Juju/CEH on his team.  Being a half-PPR league, Juju fell 8 points short of his projection, but Mahomes fell 7 points short of his, so slight advantage Axe Elf--but CEH exceeded his projection by about 3, so he gained a couple of points on me.  I was originally projected to win 134.81 - 134.53, but now he's projected to win 127.52 - 129.13.  lol  Should be a fun one.

League 5:  The only league in which I lost Week 1, so I'm most in need of a win here--but it's not looking good.  I had no action tonight, but faced Mike Williams, who exceeded his projection by 9.  And this is the MASH unit--I have Corey Davis starting at WR4 for the injured Keenan Allen, though it looks like Najee and Ertz will be at full speed this week.  I'll need my other Allen, Robinson, and my little Lamb CeeDee to not be invisible this week, and it wouldn't hurt Henry and Etienne to put forth a little more effort, too.  Current projection?  A 122 - 154 loss.

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Well, aside from Amon.

You seriously drafted the worst possible teams. 
Henry after 2 weeks is a total bust. 
 

Time to finally hang it up. Maybe try fantasy tennis or something? 

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

You seriously drafted the worst possible teams.

I guess you haven't seen the standings.

I'll educate you here shortly.

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I really wanted to do a “What Do You Need from MNF” post yesterday, because I had a lot of drama riding on the two MNF games, but I took a nap instead.  The joys of growing old.

After Sunday’s games, League 4 was a loss.  Amon-Ra did his work, but Jefferson, Henry, Zeke and Patterson all loafed and my opponent was the beneficiary of a Tua/Waddle stack.  He also had Bateman and CEH.  Sigh.  A good time to post the third-lowest score in the league, I suppose, rather than wasting a good effort against the Dolphins’ domination.

Also by the end of Sunday, League 2 was a win—I had a 6 point lead with my opponent done, and me still having Jefferson and Diggs to go on Monday Night.  I ended up wasting the second-highest score in the league beating the second-lowest score in the league, but after two weeks, I’m undefeated in this league with the most total points scored.  Jefferson, Diggs, Amon-Ra, Lockett and CEH in my only full-PPR league are just killing it.

However, since I didn’t need anything out of Diggs on Monday Night, I was kind of hoping he would post a nice quiet 6 for 60 or something—because I was playing against him in ALL three of my other leagues!!!  I did have Henry still to play in all three, so going into MNF I was a projected 6 point winner in League 1, and a projected 0.6 point winner in League 5.  I was a projected loser in League 3 anyway, but Henry was corralled by the Bills, and Diggs did what Diggs does, and I lost all three of these games—with scores in the top half of the league for two of the three teams.

Sucks to be me playing against one of my best players in three other leagues.  :(

So after two weeks I have one 2-0 team, one 0-2 team, and three 1-1 teams; right at .500 for the season.  I’m ok with that, given the opponents that I’ve faced in the first two weeks—Mahomes 3 times, Allen 2 times, Herbert 2 times, Murray, Tua for his career game, Mixon twice, CMC, Taylor twice, Swift in Week 1, CEH, Diggs FOUR times, Bateman FOUR times as well, Mike Williams twice, Waddle, Tyreek, Kirk, Chase…  There can’t be too many more good players out there for me to face, can there?

And I need a little more consistent production out of guys like Allen Robinson, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and my TEs other than Goedert and Ertz, and getting guys like JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Damien Williams, Michael Gallup and Keenan Allen back from IR will be a plus as well.  So I feel pretty good through the first two weeks; just need to keep developing into mid-season form.

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