What’s the housing market like in your area?

[TheNewGirl 1,347]

Climate change strikes again.

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

12 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Real estate has historically been a very effective way to transfer generational wealth.  Its a good system if used correctly, but it doesn't help the generation behind you a lot if everyone hits normal life expectancy.  I have parents in their early 70s, I'm in my 40s and a bunch of kids in their teens. 5-10 years from now they will be in the housing market and (hopefully) none of us have passed on where we can cash out on real estate investments.  This leaves the kids to almost fend for themselves.  

Over the last decade home prices are up 30% while incomes have only gone up 11%.  That isn't a sustainable trend.  We may have already hit the wall in some markets.  I think the vast majority of kids graduating this year have little to no chance of home ownership in the next 5-10 with the current market.   

There is more to it than that. The transferring of generational wealth does not need to depend on someone failing to reach life expectancy. My mother's parents were on the older side when she was born, but my grandfather lived to 94... he sold his house and downsized in his mid 80's. He split most of his proceeds between his 4 children and that money was used by my parents to pay off the remainder of their mortgage. My parents are in their late 60's and don't currently have any plans to sell, but based on not having a mortgage for quite a while now, they were in a position to lend me some money to help with the down payment on my condo. I paid them back, but the generational wealth trickle down put them in a position to help me at the time, while alive 

I don't disagree with you on the pace of home prices being a bit out of control, but the wealth a family can build through real estate more than bridges the gap compared to income increases. 

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was just talking to my mom about interest rates.  She was saying how lucky we are to still have rates as low as they are.  When my parents first took out a loan the interest rate was around 15% and was variable.  The 80s were terrible for farmers when interest rates were outrageous.  Those were bad years.

I feel very lucky to get locked into the rate I have at 2.5% on a 20 year mortgage.

They were also earning crazy high rates on CD's and regular bank accounts. 

When you got your 2.5% mortgage interest rate, what were savings account and CD rates sitting at? 1%?

[jerryskids 6,564]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

Do what I said.  Have her buy a condo for a few years.  At the very least she attains monthly cost stability and generates some equity.  Alternatively, let her move back home.  She should be able to save up a lot for a down payment making as much as she does if she doesn't have a rent payment.

Thanks.  I'm not sure how much she has looked at condos, plus they aren't as popular in Phoenix metro except maybe downtown Phoenix/Tempe/Scottsdale, which is usually pricey.  There are some decent town homes by us, but they are in a nicer neighborhood and pricey as well.

I just looked on Zillow; there is actually a condo near us, 2BR 2BA, 965 sq ft, asking $290K.  I imagine she could swing that.  Carport and not garage, which is a negative in Phoenix heat.  To contrast, my son bought a house about 5-6 years ago, maybe 3400 sq ft, 4BR 3BA, for not much more money.  Not quite as good of an area as ours, but gentrifying.

Finally, I love her too much to choose to live with her full time these days if we can avoid it.   

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

They were also earning crazy high rates on CD's and regular bank accounts. 

When you got your 2.5% mortgage interest rates, what were savings account and CD rates sitting at? 1%?

I'm not sure what CD rates were but I know savings account rates were a joke and still are.

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

3 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

 

I just looked on Zillow; there is actually a condo near us, 2BR 2BA, 965 sq ft, asking $290K.  I imagine she could swing that.  Carport and not garage, which is a negative in Phoenix heat.  To contrast, my son bought a house about 5-6 years ago, maybe 3400 sq ft, 4BR 3BA, for not much more money.  Not quite as good of an area as ours, but gentrifying.

Finally, I love her too much to choose to live with her full time these days if we can avoid it.   

good lord. A similar condo in my area would be 350-400k. A similar house even 5 years ago would have been 850+

[Ultra Max Power 214]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was just talking to my mom about interest rates.  She was saying how lucky we are to still have rates as low as they are.  When my parents first took out a loan the interest rate was around 15% and was variable.  The 80s were terrible for farmers when interest rates were outrageous.  Those were bad years.

I feel very lucky to get locked into the rate I have at 2.5% on a 20 year mortgage.

I thought those rates were insane when I heard them the first time as well.  Then when the context of average salary vs average home price is shown from the 70s/80s to today, it made a bit more sense.  

average household income in 1980 was almost 17k a year.   Average house price was 47k.  

average household income today is ~70k while the average house price is 380k.

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

1 minute ago, Ultra Max Power said:

I thought those rates were insane when I heard them the first time as well.  Then when the context of average salary vs average home price is shown from the 70s/80s to today, it made a bit more sense.  

average household income in 1980 was almost 17k a year.   Average house price was 47k.  

average household income today is ~70k while the average house price is 380k.

Yeah.  I think my parent's loan was for $40k.

[jerryskids 6,564]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

good lord. A similar condo in my area would be 350-400k. A similar house even 5 years ago would have been 850+

My other daughter is looking to move to NYC in a month or so.  Current plan is to live with a friend who will be attending Columbia for PT at the medical school up north on Manhattan.  Cost for 1/2 the rent for a livable tiny apartment is about the same as our current mortgage in Phoenix.  And our agent wants us as guarantors to show 80X the monthly rent in our income.  It's crazy back there!

[posty 2,612]

2 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

My home has increased in value nearly 50% in the 14 years I've lived there

Who knew a trailer would accomplish this...

[TimHauck 2,619]

8 hours ago, Strike said:

Do what I said.  Have her buy a condo for a few years.  At the very least she attains monthly cost stability and generates some equity.  Alternatively, let her move back home.  She should be able to save up a lot for a down payment making as much as she does if she doesn't have a rent payment.

A condo isn’t a bad idea if you’re renting and can buy for significantly less than rent.  But if you’re concerned about prices crashing, if that happens condos will likely be harder hit than houses.

But yeah, recent college grads living with their parents for a couple years is really the best way to save for a down payment.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,933]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was just talking to my mom about interest rates.  She was saying how lucky we are to still have rates as low as they are.  When my parents first took out a loan the interest rate was around 15% and was variable.  The 80s were terrible for farmers when interest rates were outrageous.  Those were bad years.

I feel very lucky to get locked into the rate I have at 2.5% on a 20 year mortgage.

And your moms house cost 25k and the taxes were a lot less. I’ll trade. 

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

11 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

And your moms house cost 25k and the taxes were a lot less. I’ll trade. 

And the median family income was 23,000 which means 25K was a pretty big chunk of money.

Things are relative

[Ultra Max Power 214]

Quote

 

According to a recent report from Redfin, median U.S. home-sale prices climbed 1.5% over the four weeks ending July 9 compared with a year earlier. That's the first increase in nearly five months, according to the data from the technology-powered real estate brokerage. 

New listings are down 27% year over year, which is the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic. Overall, the total number of homes on the market is down 14%, which represents the biggest decline in over a year, according to Redfin.

 

Basically anyone with a good interest rate isn't putting their house on the market.  

[Hawkeye21 2,382]

12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

And your moms house cost 25k and the taxes were a lot less. I’ll trade. 

As posted earlier, it was a loan for 40k.

[RLLD 4,143]

58 minutes ago, Ultra Max Power said:

Basically anyone with a good interest rate isn't putting their house on the market.  

Correct. This will be relatively sticky as well.

Fewer people selling therefore lowers supply, and then prices rise as well. This then really staggers the market, and next we will see rents rise. This is the natural market action.

Why is this happening? Government policy has resulted in inflation, and thus the fed has to raise rates to combat inflation.

NONE of this has to happen, it is idiotic policy….self-Inflicted injury

Biden is the source of all of this 

[GutterBoy 2,898]

2 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Correct. This will be relatively sticky as well.

Fewer people selling therefore lowers supply, and then prices rise as well. This then really staggers the market, and next we will see rents rise. This is the natural market action.

Why is this happening? Government policy has resulted in inflation, and thus the fed has to raise rates to combat inflation.

NONE of this has to happen, it is idiotic policy….self-Inflicted injury

Biden is the source of all of this 

So if Trump wins reelection, we have no inflation, no raising of rates?

[RLLD 4,143]

5 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

So if Trump wins reelection, we have no inflation, no raising of rates?

What an odd assertion, you should have learned a far more deep understanding in econ101 alone.

Fixing the damage here in a not like flipping a light switch; unlike creating it.

This damage is going to take time to unwind, and it will be rather uncomfortable as well.

As usual the Democrats went for adolescent posturing with no regard for who they hurt.

And they have pointedly hurt lower class Americans, notably African Americans, disproportionately.

They do not seem to care at all what they have done here.

Even with proper policies in place it would take as long as a decade to repair the damage Biden has fomented

[GutterBoy 2,898]

Just now, RLLD said:

What an odd assertion, you should have learned a far more deep understanding in econ101 alone.

Fixing the damage here in a not like flipping a light switch; unlike creating it.

This damage is going to take time to unwind, and it will be rather uncomfortable as well.

As usual the Democrats went for adolescent posturing with no regard for who they hurt.

And they have pointedly hurt lower class Americans, notably African Americans, disproportionately.

They do not seem to care at all what they have done here.

Even with proper policies in place it would take as long as a decade to repair the damage Biden has fomented

So you're not gonna answer my question?

You said Biden is the source for all of this. You honestly think that it Trump wins, then none of this happens?

[RLLD 4,143]

Just now, GutterBoy said:

So you're not gonna answer my question?

You said Biden is the source for all of this. You honestly think that it Trump wins, then none of this happens?

Correct. He would have sustained energy production as well as the economic policies that were pointedly beneficial for lower income folks. He would not have pumped the money into our system to buy votes.

Thus the inflationary influence of his policies to get more and more people employed would have been the more prominent influence. This would have been more easily controlled by the fed.

Problems would still exist, but they would not have the influence of bad policies to exacerbate them

on this we perhaps disagree

[GutterBoy 2,898]

5 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Correct. He would have sustained energy production as well as the economic policies that were pointedly beneficial for lower income folks. He would not have pumped the money into our system to buy votes.

Thus the inflationary influence of his policies to get more and more people employed would have been the more prominent influence. This would have been more easily controlled by the fed.

Problems would still exist, but they would not have the influence of bad policies to exacerbate them

on this we perhaps disagree

What did Biden do to cut energy production? 

What economic policies did Biden stop that benefited lower income folks?

The only thing you have is that Biden pumped money into the system to buy votes, which is exactly what Trump did prior, only Trump pumped more money than Biden.

Then you contradict yourself saying "Correct" to no inflation or rate hikes, but then say problems would still exist, just not as bad.

[RLLD 4,143]

8 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

What did Biden do to cut energy production? 

What economic policies did Biden stop that benefited lower income folks?

The only thing you have is that Biden pumped money into the system to buy votes, which is exactly what Trump did prior, only Trump pumped more money than Biden.

Then you contradict yourself saying "Correct" to no inflation or rate hikes, but then say problems would still exist, just not as bad.

I am not your research student, everything I have noted is both present on this forearm and available through google in terms of the mistakes made.

When he went after energy we all immediately called him out on it. Anyone with even a modest understanding of the economy understood the gravity of that mistake.

I made no contradiction. When bad policy foments inflation the fed must correct it

[GutterBoy 2,898]

Just now, RLLD said:

I am not your research student, everything I have noted is both present on this forearm and available through google in terms of the mistakes made.

When he went after energy we all immediately called him out on it. Anyone with even a modest understanding of the economy understood the gravity of that mistake.

I made no contradiction. When bad policy foments inflation the fed must correct it

haha, OK.  It's easy to throw out BS claims without backing them up.

As far as energy goes, it's easy to refute because it's a hotly contested topic, but the data points to Biden policies not impacting energy production, and I will back that up with a source since you refuse to. https://www.newsweek.com/have-biden-administration-policies-reduced-us-oil-production-1686104

Sorry, I just had to call out your "Biden is the source of all of this" BS.  Carry on.

[RLLD 4,143]

12 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

haha, OK.  It's easy to throw out BS claims without backing them up.

As far as energy goes, it's easy to refute because it's a hotly contested topic, but the data points to Biden policies not impacting energy production, and I will back that up with a source since you refuse to. https://www.newsweek.com/have-biden-administration-policies-reduced-us-oil-production-1686104

Sorry, I just had to call out your "Biden is the source of all of this" BS.  Carry on.

That’s fine, i know that is the tactic and I get it.

When he acted improperly to negatively impact the energy sector there were plenty of voices calling it out. It was simple, what he was doing would lead to higher prices. It was not the difficult to predict, market actions are easy to predict when you make really dumb mistakes.

And then he tried to pretend it all away, using statistics not unlike you have he touted for months that there was no inflation, and whe the lie no longer worked he tried to call it transitory…..and when that lie no longer worked he admonished people for calling it out

When it appeared his dumbfockery was heading toward a recession then he again misused the data as you have to reimagine what we call a recession 

So please parsonme if I care a little more about the reality of costs than manipulation of data to pretend it all away. Pissing on someone’s leg and calling it rain just does not work

[GutterBoy 2,898]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

That’s fine, i know that is the tactic and I get it.

When he acted improperly to negatively impact the energy sector there were plenty of voices calling it out. It was simple, what he was doing would lead to higher prices. It was not the difficult to predict, market actions are easy to predict when you make really dumb mistakes.

And then he tried to pretend it all away, using statistics not unlike you have he touted for months that there was no inflation, and whe the lie no longer worked he tried to call it transitory…..and when that lie no longer worked he admonished people for calling it out

When it appeared his dumbfockery was heading toward a recession then he again misused the data as you have to reimagine what we call a recession 

So please person me if I care a little more about the reality of costs than manipulation of data to pretend it all away

Well it's clear that all you care about is playing partisan politics, so have fun.

[RogerDodger 797]

17 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

haha, OK.  It's easy to throw out BS claims without backing them up.

As far as energy goes, it's easy to refute because it's a hotly contested topic, but the data points to Biden policies not impacting energy production, and I will back that up with a source since you refuse to. https://www.newsweek.com/have-biden-administration-policies-reduced-us-oil-production-1686104

Sorry, I just had to call out your "Biden is the source of all of this" BS.  Carry on.

Your source from a year and a half ago?  That uses the 9000 unused leases BS as proof?

  Nice work dummy.

[seafoam1 2,799]

2 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

Your source from a year and a half ago?  That uses the 9000 unused leases BS as proof?

  Nice work dummy.

The guy fits the leftist dumbass mold perfectly.

He supports pedos, he thinks guys can be girls, and he doesn't know anything about what is going on in this country or why things are so freaking bad these days.

[GutterBoy 2,898]

8 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

Your source from a year and a half ago?  That uses the 9000 unused leases BS as proof?

  Nice work dummy.

The article refutes RLLD's BS that Biden policies reduced energy production.  It was refuted years ago.

You want something more recent?  5 days ago, record US production.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3986338-record-breaking-us-oil-production-helps-thwart-saudi-efforts-to-drive-up-prices

U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April, helping to keep energy prices stable and blunt the efforts of Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters to drive them higher.

Might be time to start drinking.

[RogerDodger 797]

2 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

The article refutes RLLD's BS that Biden policies reduced energy production.  It was refuted years ago.

You want something more recent?  5 days ago, record US production.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3986338-record-breaking-us-oil-production-helps-thwart-saudi-efforts-to-drive-up-prices

U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April, helping to keep energy prices stable and blunt the efforts of Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters to drive them higher.

Might be time to start drinking.

Up 9% over Biden's last year!  Holy fok you're dumb.  

[RLLD 4,143]

19 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Well it's clear that all you care about is playing partisan politics, so have fun.

I will call our stupidity where it arises, if I will do it to Bush…..and then Obama…..and yes, also Trump….I will not suddenly stop for Biden

You are simply viewing my criticism through the lease of your own bias. Later, when I call out Trump you will thank me for seeing reason….because t I will not have actually changed anything…. It will just so happen that my position temporarily fed your bias

[GutterBoy 2,898]

3 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

Up 9% over Biden's last year!  Holy fok you're dumb.  

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

April 2019: 12,149

April 2023:    12,615

We're higher than we were prior to covid.

Just stop seriously, you're really embarrassing yourself now. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

13 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

April 2019: 12,149

April 2023:    12,615

We're higher than we were prior to covid.

Just stop seriously, you're really embarrassing yourself now. 

 

"We don't have the refining capacity … if we all add more rigs, service costs will go up another 20%-30%, it takes away free cash flow,"

[MDC 7,128]

23 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Yeah.  I think my parent's loan was for $40k.

My uncle bought a rowhome in Astoria Queens in the 80s for $25k in cash. Comps in his neighborhood are listed at $900k.  

[RogerDodger 797]

11 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

April 2019: 12,149

April 2023:    12,615

We're higher than we were prior to covid.

Just stop seriously, you're really embarrassing yourself now. 

June 2018 was higher than December 1965!    

So tiring having to explain things to simpletons.  But here' goes:

Biden's first year saw a reduction more than what we saw in 2020, WHEN COVID SHUT'r ALL DOWN.

Biden's second year improved on that another -3.3%.  When on average over the past two decades we've needed an increase of 3% y/y.

														Total	%change
2000	5,784	5,852	5,918	5,854	5,847	5,823	5,739	5,789	5,758	5,809	5,833	5,855		69,861
2001	5,799	5,780	5,880	5,863	5,829	5,766	5,749	5,725	5,709	5,746	5,881	5,887		69,614	-0.35%
2002	5,873	5,881	5,886	5,844	5,905	5,884	5,751	5,796	5,411	5,358	5,624	5,722		68,935	-0.98%
2003	5,755	5,783	5,803	5,726	5,663	5,659	5,498	5,574	5,609	5,614	5,547	5,571		67,802	-1.64%
2004	5,585	5,572	5,617	5,560	5,556	5,407	5,484	5,325	5,081	5,170	5,423	5,510		65,290	-3.70%
2005	5,446	5,501	5,601	5,563	5,596	5,442	5,253	5,198	4,214	4,555	4,857	4,988		62,214	-4.71%
2006	5,048	5,032	5,027	5,082	5,151	5,163	5,094	5,040	5,031	5,108	5,064	5,186		61,026	-1.91%
2007	5,108	5,118	5,119	5,180	5,211	5,075	5,038	4,970	4,902	5,022	5,034	5,111		60,888	-0.23%
2008	5,115	5,148	5,189	5,180	5,143	5,138	5,177	5,003	3,974	4,738	5,078	5,103		59,986	-1.48%
2009	5,144	5,239	5,219	5,278	5,377	5,269	5,398	5,418	5,559	5,524	5,395	5,452		64,272	7.15%
2010	5,404	5,553	5,515	5,392	5,401	5,380	5,298	5,447	5,616	5,631	5,576	5,607		65,820	2.41%
2011	5,497	5,406	5,618	5,562	5,625	5,589	5,440	5,665	5,614	5,902	6,039	6,112		68,069	3.42%
2012	6,177	6,268	6,327	6,320	6,370	6,275	6,431	6,351	6,598	6,970	7,082	7,106		78,275	14.99%
2013	7,084	7,157	7,216	7,375	7,327	7,279	7,523	7,535	7,839	7,761	7,920	7,933		89,949	14.91%
2014	8,078	8,157	8,298	8,527	8,646	8,743	8,848	8,933	9,087	9,266	9,327	9,565		105,475	17.26%
2015	9,384	9,506	9,584	9,658	9,475	9,358	9,445	9,410	9,480	9,401	9,333	9,275		113,309	7.43%
2016	9,202	9,066	9,101	8,874	8,835	8,676	8,662	8,690	8,544	8,804	8,903	8,816		106,173	-6.30%
2017	8,875	9,110	9,166	9,101	9,185	9,111	9,247	9,250	9,517	9,669	10,085	9,983		112,299	5.77%	Trump 1
2018	10,001	10,281	10,467	10,500	10,435	10,641	10,897	11,392	11,443	11,509	11,886	11,945		131,397	17.01%	Trump 2
2019	11,869	11,673	11,913	12,149	12,154	12,218	11,902	12,486	12,590	12,809	13,000	12,978		147,741	12.44%	Trump 3
2020	12,852	12,842	12,797	11,914	9,713	10,442	11,006	10,577	10,921	10,457	11,196	11,168		135,885	-8.02%	Trump 4(Covid)
2021	11,124	9,925	11,326	11,305	11,356	11,356	11,347	11,277	10,918	11,569	11,790	11,634		134,927	-0.71%	Biden 1
2022	11,369	11,316	11,701	11,668	11,629	11,797	11,844	12,002	12,337	12,417	12,379	12,14		130,459	-3.31%	Biden 2
															3.16%

 

[Mike Honcho 5,097]

On 7/13/2023 at 10:03 AM, cmh6476 said:

My home has increased in value nearly 50% in the 14 years I've lived there

What do you think it would be worth if someone else lived there?  

[GutterBoy 2,898]

9 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

 

2020	12,852	12,842	12,797	11,914	9,713	10,442	11,006	10,577	10,921	10,457	11,196	11,168		135,885	-8.02%	Trump 4(Covid)
2021	11,124	9,925	11,326	11,305	11,356	11,356	11,347	11,277	10,918	11,569	11,790	11,634		134,927	-0.71%	Biden 1
2022	11,369	11,316	11,701	11,668	11,629	11,797	11,844	12,002	12,337	12,417	12,379	12,14		130,459	-3.31%	Biden 2
															3.16%

Um, check your math there on 2022 you dope.  Also let's not pretend that covid went away in 2020 either.

Seriously, back away, start drinking.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,933]

3 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

And the median family income was 23,000 which means 25K was a pretty big chunk of money.

Things are relative

There’s that Mooney Math again. So a house was the same as one years salary. Yeah , that must have sucked. Geez. Take a breath before you post once in a while. 

[Sean Mooney 1,937]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

There’s that Mooney Math again. So a house was the same as one years salary. Yeah , that must have sucked. Geez. Take a breath before you post once in a while. 

You understand nothing about economics..a 25K home at a 15% interest rate would've been 441 dollars a month on a 20 year loan. That would be the equivalent of about 1500 dollars a month in 2023. This is also when the median family income was 23K....the median family income today in 2023 is 80000.

 

Again- it's all relative in how this stuff is laid out. It isn't as simple as "Well it only cost (x) in 1980"

[edjr 6,578]

 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,933]

24 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

Great video Ed. One problem. Warren Buffett is not the greatest investor of all time. Nancy Pelosi is.