Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[Strike 5,553]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

I maintain hope that they will change in Biden’s favor. 

Yeah, that's your problem sometimes.  You post something as fact when the only fact is that you HOPE it BECOMES a fact at some point down the road.  And you have no humility or self awareness when making such bold predictions and posting them as facts.

[jerryskids 6,799]

57 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Trump continues to maintain a 4 point average lead in the battleground states: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4679145-trump-leading-biden-by-4-points-across-key-swing-states-polling/amp/?nxs-test=amp

However there are some weird anomalies buried in these polls- stuff that doesn’t make sense. For example, in Nevada Trump leads by a whopping 12 points. Yet at the the same time Jackie Rosen, the Democratic senator, is ahead by 2 points over her Republican rival. Thats a swing of 14 points which means, if true, that 14% of Nevada voters are going to vote for Jackie Rosen AND Donald Trump??

I’m not buying it. I’m not saying that Trump isn’t clearly ahead but something isn’t right about these numbers. 

FWIW, I just looked it up and Bernie Sanders was the overwhelming winner of the democratic caucuses in Nevada in 2020.  So maybe support for Biden has never been terribly strong there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada

Pledged
national
convention
delegates^[c] Votes % Votes % Number % Bernie Sanders 35,652 33.99 41,075 40.45 6,788 46.84 24 Joe Biden 18,424 17.57 19,179 18.89 2,927 20.20 9 Pete Buttigieg 16,102 15.35 17,598 17.33 2,073 14.31 3 Elizabeth Warren 13,438 12.81 11,703 11.53 1,406 9.70

[Gepetto 1,368]

Biden releasing gasoline reserves

Biden to sell off 1M barrels of gasoline held in reserve to keep prices low before election

“The Biden-Harris Administration is laser-focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement.

“By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the tri-state and northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most.” 

Critics including congressional Republicans slammed Biden’s move as an attempt to buy votes — after making similar allegations about Biden’s attempt to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in federally owned student loan debt in the runup to the election.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) accused Biden of “yet again using America’s emergency fuel reserves to cover for his disastrous inflationary policies in an election year.”

“Releasing 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast reserve is a desperate move by Joe Biden to lower prices that HE raised,” tweeted Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).”This reserve is meant for emergencies, not as a cover-up for Biden’s failed economic policies.”

Skeptics noted that the complete draining of the Northeast reserve, which was authorized in a March government spending bill, was unlikely to significantly impact prices — which currently average $3.60 per regular gallon, up from roughly $2.38 when Biden took office and $3.54 at this time last year, according to AAA data.

The US used about 8.94 million barrels of gasoline per day as of 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration, meaning that Tuesday’s release would cover fewer than three hours of average US consumption.

“A cynical political move. Like a drop in the ocean,” wrote one X user.

Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) tweeted, “He should just reverse his damaging anti-energy policies.”

“Depleting our emergency reserves while discouraging domestic production. Such a winning strategy!” tweeted Gabriella Hoffman, energy and conservation director of the Independent Women’s Forum.

“Under [former President Donald] Trump, it was ‘drill, baby, drill.’ Under Biden, it is ‘drain, baby, drain,’” tweeted Charles Correll III, a speechwriter for Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

[Hardcore troubadour 15,445]

But oil production is at record levels! 

[jonmx 2,429]

14 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

But oil production is at record levels! 

And crime is at the lowest levels in history.

Inflation is non-existant. 

The border is under control

Ukraine is on the verge of winning our proxy war.

Our FBI keeping us safe by hinting down Grandma's who might have entered the Capitol for a few minutes.

Democracy is being saved by suppressing the voiced of the deplorables. 

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

Some hope for Biden here: 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/shaky-foundation-trump-lead-disengaged-114648718.html

 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

On 5/22/2024 at 11:58 AM, The Real timschochet said:

Trump continues to maintain a 4 point average lead in the battleground states: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4679145-trump-leading-biden-by-4-points-across-key-swing-states-polling/amp/?nxs-test=amp

However there are some weird anomalies buried in these polls- stuff that doesn’t make sense. For example, in Nevada Trump leads by a whopping 12 points. Yet at the the same time Jackie Rosen, the Democratic senator, is ahead by 2 points over her Republican rival. Thats a swing of 14 points which means, if true, that 14% of Nevada voters are going to vote for Jackie Rosen AND Donald Trump??

I’m not buying it. I’m not saying that Trump isn’t clearly ahead but something isn’t right about these numbers. 

If you take them at face value, it means voters prefer democrats over republicans generally, but reject Biden to the extent that the election is a referendum on him as president.

And traditionally, with incumbents, it is.

The hope is that as the election nears and reality sets in of Trump being the actual literal other choice, and people are reminded what a piece of sh1t he is, they’ll swing back towards Biden. I have my doubts but that’s the thinking.

As far as why Biden is failing the referendum, it’s obviously inflation and his age. Can’t do much about either one, unfortunately 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

4 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

If you take them at face value, it means voters prefer democrats over republicans generally, but reject Biden to the extent that the election is a referendum on him as president.

And traditionally, with incumbents, it is.

The hope is that as the election nears and reality sets in of Trump being the actual literal other choice, and people are reminded what a piece of sh1t he is, they’ll swing back towards Biden. I have my doubts but that’s the thinking.

As far as why Biden is failing the referendum, it’s obviously inflation and his age. Can’t do much about either one, unfortunately 

and the border, and foreign policy

those are the 2 primary reasons I am voting for trump and same with most people I know, economy as well, biden's age is irrelevant in that decision

[IGotWorms 4,058]

9 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

and the border, and foreign policy

those are the 2 primary reasons I am voting for trump and same with most people I know, economy as well, biden's age is irrelevant in that decision

I don’t think most people really factor foreign policy into their voting much. That’s what all the data says, anyways.

The border, maybe a bit, but that’s just red meat for MAGAtards anyway. Not like they were going to vote for Biden regardless 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

33 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I don’t think most people really factor foreign policy into their voting much. That’s what all the data says, anyways.

The border, maybe a bit, but that’s just red meat for MAGAtards anyway. Not like they were going to vote for Biden regardless 

not true, tons of democrats are not open border people, I live in cali and alot of my more liberal friends are all against it

 

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

22 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

not true, tons of democrats are not open border people, I live in cali and alot of my more liberal friends are all against it

 

Liberals may be for securing the border and tightening up immigration. No doubt about that. But are they for Trump’s plan of rounding up and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants already here? I strongly doubt that. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,445]

The only thing we know for sure is that if Biden loses it won’t be because of his policies. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

13 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Liberals may be for securing the border and tightening up immigration. No doubt about that. But are they for Trump’s plan of rounding up and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants already here? I strongly doubt that. 

ones that break the laws, I could see that

 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

27 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

The only thing we know for sure is that if Biden loses it won’t be because of his policies. 

you mean it will be because of racist homophobic transphobic?

 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

1 hour ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

not true, tons of democrats are not open border people, I live in cali and alot of my more liberal friends are all against it

 

Yeah that’s a false characterization of what I said.

It’s not that they’re in favor of “open borders.” It’s that they don’t see the issue as quite the boogeyman the right makes it out to be and that it’s probably not one of their top issues or concerns. But of course I’m speaking generally here so it may not be true for every democrat 

[Dizkneelande 1,101]

1 hour ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

ones that break the laws, I could see that

 

I still don’t understand why you folks engage this retard. 

Far Right Axios 

Half of Americans — including 42% of Democrats — say they'd support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

And 30% of Democrats — as well as 46% of Republicans — now say they'd end birthright citizenship, something guaranteed under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.
 

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illegal-immigration-poll

[Hardcore troubadour 15,445]

1 hour ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

you mean it will be because of racist homophobic transphobic?

 

Something.  Macedonian troll farms, Romanian hackers, and all the ists and phobes. 

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

21 hours ago, Dizkneelande said:

I still don’t understand why you folks engage this retard. 

Far Right Axios 

Half of Americans — including 42% of Democrats — say they'd support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

And 30% of Democrats — as well as 46% of Republicans — now say they'd end birthright citizenship, something guaranteed under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.
 

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/25/trump-biden-americans-illegal-immigration-poll

I don’t believe it. I’ve read polls like that but I don’t believe the public would ever put up with it. We’re not that kind of society. We don’t do sh!t like that. 

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/29/harsh-deportation-tools-are-just-fine-with-many-americans/

The same poll showed that Americans preferred a path to citizenship to mass deportation, 68% to 31%. 

This is all theoretical because mass deportation is never going to happen. We’re not going to spend the resources to do this whatever Trump promises. But even so I believe that Americans would never put up with it anyhow whatever the polls suggest. In the end we’re not that kind of country. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/29/harsh-deportation-tools-are-just-fine-with-many-americans/

The same poll showed that Americans preferred a path to citizenship to mass deportation, 68% to 31%. 

This is all theoretical because mass deportation is never going to happen. We’re not going to spend the resources to do this whatever Trump promises. But even so I believe that Americans would never put up with it anyhow whatever the polls suggest. In the end we’re not that kind of country. 

we definitely need to spend that money on ukraine instead

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

So here’s another way I don’t believe the polls: the ones that suggest that if Trump is found guilty in New York, he will lose up to 20% of his support among conservatives and independents. 
 

First off there’s a big difference in attitudes before something happens and after. My hunch (and that’s all it is) is that most people are indifferent to the results of this trial. Conservatives who support Trump think it’s all a sham anyhow and a guilty verdict isn’t going to change their minds. Independents mostly don’t care. MAYBE the onus of “convicted felon” might convince a few independents to change their mind and MAYBE that will be enough to make a difference in November. But I doubt it. 

[supermike80 1,913]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

So here’s another way I don’t believe the polls: the ones that suggest that if Trump is found guilty in New York, he will lose up to 20% of his support among conservatives and independents. 
 

First off there’s a big difference in attitudes before something happens and after. My hunch (and that’s all it is) is that most people are indifferent to the results of this trial. Conservatives who support Trump think it’s all a sham anyhow and a guilty verdict isn’t going to change their minds. Independents mostly don’t care. MAYBE the onus of “convicted felon” might convince a few independents to change their mind and MAYBE that will be enough to make a difference in November. But I doubt it. 

I told your dumbass quite some time ago..

Polls are dumb

You and others fought tooth and nail against that position.

But they are dumb

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

2 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

we definitely need to spend that money on ukraine instead

Really not an either-or. Putting aside all other issues, the aid we give Ukraine, which is mostly money sent to our own industries, is a boon to our economy. Mass deportations would be a major detriment, as well as making the Ukraine spending look like pennies on the dollar. 

[The Real timschochet 6,773]

1 minute ago, supermike80 said:

I told your dumbass quite some time ago..

Polls are dumb

You and others fought tooth and nail against that position.

But they are dumb

I know this has always been your opinion. I disagree, but it depends on the pollster and the question being asked. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Really not an either-or. Putting aside all other issues, the aid we give Ukraine, which is mostly money sent to our own industries, is a boon to our economy. Mass deportations would be a major detriment, as well as making the Ukraine spending look like pennies on the dollar. 

right just like the wall was too expensive to build, at 25 bil, yet we spend 181 bil annually on illegals, cool story

good to see you think funding war is great for our economy, I remember when dems were anti-war, good times

 

[MDC 7,433]

10 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

right just like the wall was too expensive to build, at 25 bil, yet we spend 181 bil annually on illegals, cool story

I thought Mexico was paying?

[Strike 5,553]

46 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I know this has always been your opinion. I disagree, but it depends on the pollster and the question being asked. 

Yep.  If the poll supports your predefined position it's a good poll.  If it doesn't it clearly has no credibility. 

[Mark Davis 398]

The latest Bovada odds have it at:

Trump -150

Biden +145

Trump is roughly a 3:2 favorite based on these numbers.  The odds for someone other than the two of them unsurprisingly continues to decrease with each increment of time that passes.  This is the first time when adding the odds together they come up on the negative (vig) side, which means now the implied likelihood of someone other than one of these two winning is less than the vig/house rake of roughly 10%, sometimes a bit more on these prop bets.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

4 hours ago, MDC said:

I thought Mexico was paying?

addition by subtraction would pay for it, but also if I remember Trump was for increasing tariffs on Mexico

 

[jerryskids 6,799]

On 5/24/2024 at 9:29 AM, IGotWorms said:

I don’t think most people really factor foreign policy into their voting much. That’s what all the data says, anyways.

The border, maybe a bit, but that’s just red meat for MAGAtards anyway. Not like they were going to vote for Biden regardless 

Funny, the guy iin Oregon telling people in border states that the border is just red meat for superdupermagatards.   

Also, a fake lawyer.  Are illegal aliens threatening fake lawyer jobs? 

 

[jerryskids 6,799]

4 hours ago, supermike80 said:

I told your dumbass quite some time ago..

Polls are dumb

You and others fought tooth and nail against that position.

But they are dumb

 

4 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I know this has always been your opinion. I disagree, but it depends on the pollster and the question being asked. 

I think polls are more useful for trends than for absolute values.

In other words, if the polls say that support for Candidate X has increased, I trust that more that a poll saying Candidate X has Y% of the votes.

[Strike 5,553]

15 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

 

I think polls are more useful for trends than for absolute values.

In other words, if the polls say that support for Candidate X has increased, I trust that more that a poll saying Candidate X has Y% of the votes.

 

I think it's not enough to just look at a poll or polls.  It's important to look at all the variables - questions asked, who conducted the poll, the breakdown of the people polled (if a poll asks 70% GOP or Dem voters it might be skewed towards that party), etc....And quite honestly I usually don't care enough to dig in to those weeds.  That's why an aggregator like 538 can come in handy.  Which goes to your point about trends.  Now I realize 538 is WAY behind reality but eventually they'll catch up, right @The Real timschochet, but when they show just about  EVERY poll skewing towards one candidate that might suggest a trend that people might want to acknowledge:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[supermike80 1,913]

24 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

 

I think polls are more useful for trends than for absolute values.

In other words, if the polls say that support for Candidate X has increased, I trust that more that a poll saying Candidate X has Y% of the votes.

Polls used to be about finding out what people think.

Now they are used to influence how popple think.   Its totally flipped and they are all biased. Every.single.one

[Strike 5,553]

Dems are a bit worried about third parties.  They're currently wanting to hire someone to manage spying on third party candidates.  Seems like a good job for @squistion:

https://x.com/DrJillStein/status/1794064682745229765/photo/1

[jonmx 2,429]

 

Trump is setting up to win possibly 322 electoral college votes.  Biden is losing virtually every toss-up state and is in danger of losing a few states which were considered solid Democrat states like New Mexico and New Hampshire.  

[jonmx 2,429]

 

Trump speaking live at the Libertarian National Convention.

[thegeneral 3,214]

2 hours ago, jonmx said:

 

Trump speaking live at the Libertarian National Convention.

That went swimmingly

Libertarians hate that fat fock more than Libs do!

[IGotWorms 4,058]

5 hours ago, jonmx said:

 

Trump is setting up to win possibly 322 electoral college votes.  Biden is losing virtually every toss-up state and is in danger of losing a few states which were considered solid Democrat states like New Mexico and New Hampshire.  

lol Trump ain’t winning blue states. But yeah, looks like he might carry the swing states. Oh well, there’s always

[jonmx 2,429]

4 hours ago, thegeneral said:

That went swimmingly

Libertarians hate that fat fock more than Libs do!

 

It actually did.  Libertarians are a tough crowd as the party are split on many issues such as abortion and guns.  Many also favor things like open borders.  So a lot of issues there are going to be mixed reactions, and there were haters in the crowd.   But Trump also hit a few spots where he did get somewhat unified support.  I think Trump won some voters over last night.  It is brave to go in front of such crowd. A lefty Dem would never. 

[jonmx 2,429]

3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

lol Trump ain’t winning blue states. But yeah, looks like he might carry the swing states. Oh well, there’s always

New Hampshire and New Mexico are going to be within a couple of points and are ripe for Trump to pickup.  It would not be shocking if Trump took New York down to single digits, although it may end up an 11 or 12 percent loss.  Trump right now looks to be seeing about a net 6 to 7 points from last election, some states more and some states less.