Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[The Real timschochet 6,765]

10 minutes ago, Strike said:

I never praised 5:38 you dumbass.  I used them to show you other polling numbers than the ones you cherry pick.  I have made very clear over and over again that like Supermike80 I don't trust polls at all.  You do seem to live by them though.  

None of this changes the fact that the site you chose is ignoring polls which makes them uncredible.

Oh OK. You never praised them. And how convenient that you don’t trust any polls. 

[HellToupee 1,776]

What a jackass

 

[Beaker15 241]

10 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

What a jackass

 

Typical hateful liberal

[jonmx 2,429]

Let's see, polls overestimated Hillary' support in 2016 by 4 percent.  Polls overestimated Biden's support in 2020 by 4 percent.  Trump is outperforming his 2016 and 2020 by large margins and is doing much much better with Hispanics and Blacks.  These same polls are still over sampling Democrats by some 7 percent while Gallup has just shown for the first time in decades more voters ID as Republicans than Democrats.   Harris has ZERO chance in Georgia or Arizona and is down by 4 points in all the rust belt states.  Tampon Tim is in meltdown trying to find an excuse to get out of the debate.  Harris's internal polling shows she is well behind in key states.  The Democrat Senator in Michigan was caught on top admitting Harris has little chance to win there.  

You can choose to believe all the same polls which lied to you in 2016 and 2020, or you can open your eyes and see nothing has changed in their flawed methods and they are going produce similar results overstating Democratic support, particularly in the Presidentional race.  It may be comforting to believe the propaganda, but reality is just a month away.  Brace yourself.  Trump is going to win the popular vote by nearly 3 percent and get over 300 EVs.  

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

Do her supporters just not like going to rallies and events? Seems odd that she would be so popular, but her and Walz have low turn outs.

Another thing that I find odd with these polls is that Trump is the most beloved presidential candidate we have had in a while. Kamala has none of that. Yet she is up in the polls? It doesn't add up.

[jonmx 2,429]

8 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Do her supporters just not like going to rallies and events? Seems odd that she would be so popular, but her and Walz have low turn outs.

Another thing that I find odd with these polls is that Trump is the most beloved presidential candidate we have had in a while. Kamala has none of that. Yet she is up in the polls? It doesn't add up.

 

It was hilarious the she tried to turn it on Trump and say his rallies were fake, when there is video after video showing overflowing crowds and most Trump fans getting turned away from his rallies.  Kamala needs cleverly placed cameras to exaggerate her crowds.  

The Gallup favorability vs. Unfavorability ratings also favor Trump by a few points which almost perfectly tracks the voting. 

[TimHauck 2,876]

2 hours ago, jonmx said:

Let's see, polls overestimated Hillary' support in 2016 by 4 percent.  Polls overestimated Biden's support in 2020 by 4 percent. 

So the 2020 election results were accurate?

[Strike 5,546]

17 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

Oh OK. You never praised them. And how convenient that you don’t trust any polls. 

I've said it over and over for years, both here and at FBG's.  It's not a new stance.

[thegeneral 3,214]

3 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Do her supporters just not like going to rallies and events? Seems odd that she would be so popular, but her and Walz have low turn outs.

Another thing that I find odd with these polls is that Trump is the most beloved presidential candidate we have had in a while. Kamala has none of that. Yet she is up in the polls? It doesn't add up.

You are wrong

Trump is popular with his fans but is despised by like half the country. So bad he got spanked by Joe freaking Biden

[jonmx 2,429]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

So the 2020 election results were accurate?

The state results were horrible, many off by 7-10 percent.  The had Biden project winning big in AZ with a 99% chance, but he barely squeaked out a win by 10k votes.  They had Biden winning Iowa by 2 points, Trump won by 9 points.  They had Biden by a lock in Wisconsin, Biden barely won by 20k votes.  Nationally, they had Biden winning by about 8 points, he won by 4 points.  Yeah they got the winner right, but they underestimated Trump in all the battleground states by significant margins way outside their stated margin of error. 

Overall their bias towards Biden was in the 3-4 percent range across the country, and they are still using all their same faulty assumptions this time around.   What 538 calls 'high-quality' polls that they weight most heavily are all the most Democratic-bias polls from 2016 and 2020.  Instead of getting better, they fired Nate Silver and replaced him with a complete partisan hack.   Not at all surprising since ABC has taken over 538.  

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

Trump this weekend in talking about illegal immigration.

Quote

"“They have a phone app so that people can come into our country… these are smart immigrants, I guess, because most people don’t have any idea what the hell a phone app is,” 

 

Here's the thing- whether you are voting for Trump or not- he thinks you are an idiot and he is so much smarter than everyone- both supporters and detractors. Forget politics for a minute- does anyone here not know what a phone app is?

[The Real timschochet 6,765]

One of Jon’s biggest flaws (there are so many) is his assumption that because pollsters missed the “hidden Trump vote” in 2016 and 2020 they will miss it again. Thats wrong: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/amp/

In fact I don’t think that article goes far enough. I think the polls have overcorrected in favor of Trump: I believe Kamala has a bigger lead than is being shown and it’s going to be a shock to Jon and others on election night- so much so that he will no doubt cry foul. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

39 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Trump this weekend in talking about illegal immigration.

 

Here's the thing- whether you are voting for Trump or not- he thinks you are an idiot and he is so much smarter than everyone- both supporters and detractors. Forget politics for a minute- does anyone here not know what a phone app is?

He never told me a man can get pregnant. 

[purdygood 352]

4 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Do her supporters just not like going to rallies and events? Seems odd that she would be so popular, but her and Walz have low turn outs.

Another thing that I find odd with these polls is that Trump is the most beloved presidential candidate we have had in a while. Kamala has none of that. Yet she is up in the polls? It doesn't add up.

I'm voting for Kamala, I have no interest in going to a rally because I'm not in a Cult.  I'd rather walk my dog and go out to a nice dinner with my girlfriend than listen to any politician speak.

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

He never talks or me a man can get pregnant. 

Translate this sentence to English

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

4 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

He never talks or me a man can get pregnant. 

Also do you not see the difference. You are arguing about something stupid policy wise that is said as a placate a voting bloc. Trump is saying "People don't know what a phone app is." He isn't trying to appeal to any one person for a vote. He is almost literally saying- you all are idiots, I'm the only smart one. 

[The Real timschochet 6,765]

5 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Do her supporters just not like going to rallies and events? Seems odd that she would be so popular, but her and Walz have low turn outs.

Another thing that I find odd with these polls is that Trump is the most beloved presidential candidate we have had in a while. Kamala has none of that. Yet she is up in the polls? It doesn't add up.

Both of your assumptions here are the exact opposite of the truth. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

16 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Also do you not see the difference. You are arguing about something stupid policy wise that is said as a placate a voting bloc. Trump is saying "People don't know what a phone app is." He isn't trying to appeal to any one person for a vote. He is almost literally saying- you all are idiots, I'm the only smart one. 

He’s saying the uneducated illegals we are brining here don’t. Duh

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

6 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

He’s saying the uneducated illegals we are brining here don’t. Duh

That isn't what he said....

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

That isn't what he said....

You thought he said there would be a bloodbath too. Sorry you can’t follow along with what he’s talking about. Stick to Kamala.  She’s more your speed. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

4 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You thought he said there would be a bloodbath too. Sorry you can’t follow along with what he’s talking about. Stick to Kamala.  She’s more your speed. 

Did I? Where did I say that?

He said people don't know what phone apps are. You are such a toolshed you refuse to call him on anything. I hope you get to wash his balls one day you miserable rag of a person

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Tool shed. I’m gonna use that one.  Awesome. 

[jonmx 2,429]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

One of Jon’s biggest flaws (there are so many) is his assumption that because pollsters missed the “hidden Trump vote” in 2016 and 2020 they will miss it again. Thats wrong: 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/amp/

In fact I don’t think that article goes far enough. I think the polls have overcorrected in favor of Trump: I believe Kamala has a bigger lead than is being shown and it’s going to be a shock to Jon and others on election night- so much so that he will no doubt cry foul. 

You are delusional and your article is nothing but a bunch of empty words, some of which are just false.  To get published in newspapers and to be rated 'high quality' you must show a bias towards Democrats.   The historically most accurate pollsters like Rasmussen and Atlasintel get delisted or have their rating lowered (and their respective weighting removed or reduced) for not producing the desired numbers.  High quality polling is expensive and many organizations are now sharing data and the only difference is how they manipulate the data.   

I am not assuming anything about their inaccuracies, it is right there in their data if you dig down into the tabs and see their assumed demographics.   When pollsters assume demographics which have a larger percentage of college educated people or registered Democrats than what history shows, their results are going to be skewed in favor of Democrats.  

These errors will be further compounded by data from very reputable polling institutions like Gallup who show that for the first time in many decades, likely voters are more Republican than Democrat.   That will add even a bigger shift towards Trump than what is showing in the poll results. 

It is a nice article with a lot of nice words that claim they made changes.   But there was not one specific example of what these changes were.   And when you dig into their data it is plain as day thst the biases are still part of their model.  

[jonmx 2,429]

 

As far as crowd sizes, this article puts it in pictures. 

Trump plays to larger venues which are packed and turns people away.  Kamala's crowd looks like they are still practicing social distancing. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

30 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Tool shed. I’m gonna use that one.  Awesome. 

So you didn't find that quote?

[thegeneral 3,214]

39 minutes ago, jonmx said:

 

As far as crowd sizes, this article puts it in pictures. 

Trump plays to larger venues which are packed and turns people away.  Kamala's crowd looks like they are still practicing social distancing. 

Trump rallies resemble a “Dukes of Hazzard” Con.

[MDC 7,428]

30 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

So you didn't find that quote?

Take a number. I’m still waiting for Tardcore and Reality to find a link where I pushed the “3 FINGERS!” theory.  

[Fnord 2,272]

8 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Trump rallies resemble a “Dukes of Hazzard” Con.

Except everyone looks a lot closer to Uncle Jessie than Daisy, Luke, or Beau.

[HellToupee 1,776]

19 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Trump rallies resemble a “Dukes of Hazzard” Con.

Have you ever been to one?

[thegeneral 3,214]

11 minutes ago, Fnord said:

Except everyone looks a lot closer to Uncle Jessie than Daisy, Luke, or Beau.

Straight from MAGA rally in BFE to the Uncle Jessie and Boss Hog Cosplay competition.

[purdygood 352]

Just now, HellToupee said:

Have you ever been to one?

Personally I would rather go to a taping of The View than go to a Trump rally.  And a taping of The View sounds like hell.

[thegeneral 3,214]

6 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

Have you ever been to one?

Dukes of Hazzard Con..…..………………………………………………………………….,…….MAGA rally

[HellToupee 1,776]

1 hour ago, purdygood said:

Personally I would rather go to a taping of The View than go to a Trump rally.  And a taping of The View sounds like hell.

I think you’d have a full head of steam in your pants going to the view

[purdygood 352]

Just now, HellToupee said:

I think you’d have a full head of steam in your pants going to the view

I don't think I've seen an episode ever, are any of the female host's hot?  Then yeah, maybe.  Wasn't Young Jeezy's ex wife on there? The super hot asian girl.  Then hell yeah.

[The Real timschochet 6,765]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/republicans-alarm-trump-ground-game-00181577
 

“They’re outmatching us in enthusiasm”

[HellToupee 1,776]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

Dukes of Hazzard Con..…..………………………………………………………………….,…….MAGA rally

Sad that you think that. I went to one in Massachusetts with a couple of neighbors and some friends. Great time. . We probably ended up with 25-30 people from Wilmington &Burlington Ma. Democrats/Rebulicans/centrists etc from all walks of life. The ladies were the ones you had to watch out for . Kind of like a Jimmy buffet concert without the drunken boob flashing 

[squistion 2,202]

 

[HellToupee 1,776]

5 minutes ago, purdygood said:

I don't think I've seen an episode ever, are any of the female host's hot?  Then yeah, maybe.  Wasn't Young Jeezy's ex wife on there? The super hot asian girl.  Then hell yeah.

Not from the pics I’ve seen and the ones I know are there like whoopi goldberg…yikes

 

 I could pick young jeezy out of a lineup if you paid me. Never heard of him

[zsasz 369]

8 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/republicans-alarm-trump-ground-game-00181577
 

“They’re outmatching us in enthusiasm”

I'll answer for Emperor JonMx

 

FaKE! NeWWWWWZZZZZZ!!!!!!!

[purdygood 352]

Just now, HellToupee said:

Not from the pics I’ve seen and the ones I know are there like whoopi goldberg…yikes

 

 I could pick young jeezy out of a lineup if you paid me. Never heard of him

Haha fair enough. He's a rapper (or was back in the early 2000's when I listened to music).  I think he was married to a girl who was on The View and she was a hot Asian girl.   Yeah, Whoopi is not my type Haha