Murder rate plummets

[lickin_starfish 1,937]

55 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Since you’re the second person to bring this up, I looked up the quote in question.  Trump said “crime is through the roof.”  This is largely irrelevant to the recent updates, which were to 2021 & 2022 (with 2022’s updates in particular being pretty minor), not 2023, so if anything there’s now a bigger decline in 2023 vs 2022.

Keep grasping at straws.

[TimHauck 2,870]

3 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said:

Keep grasping at straws.

What is the % cutoff where you would consider something to be “through the roof”?

[League Champion 1,911]

9 hours ago, TimHauck said:

What is the % cutoff where you would consider something to be “through the roof”?

Everything is great!!! 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

Gutter boy wrong again.  Water is wet. 

[TimHauck 2,870]

12 minutes ago, League Champion said:

Everything is great!!! 

According to the NCVS, the gold standard according to our resident crime expert @jonnyutah, the total violent crime rate is down compared to 2018

[RLLD 4,230]

19 hours ago, Strike said:

FBI stealth edits crime rates from 2022.  While this update doesn't cover the time frame this thread was started about, it pretty much shows you can't trust the FBI stats from any time frame during the Biden administration, just like all the other stats that are constantly revised for the worst:

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/10/16/stealth_edit_fbi_quietly_revises_violent_crime_stats_1065396.html

There has been a steady drum beat of government "numbers" being "revised" later......   that should been seen for what it is.

First and foremost, the DOJ has strayed from its mission and now serves a political party instead of the people.   Trusting any component of government is of course foolisj, but given the actions of the DOJ over the years....we should recognize that they are now a significant problem.

Crime down?  Unlikely.  We have added swarms of criminals from other nations, and too many localities now permit crime as if it should just be allowed because people should be able to if they want....

Sadly, it has to get really bad before Democrats will stop the madness.  It has to first harm many people before they will back down.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

My favorite is that illegals commit crime at a lower rate than citizens. I’d like to hear how that stat is tabulated.  “Officer, I was robbed by a masked man that ran that way”. Officer:   “Can you tell us the height , weight and immigration status of the perp?” 

[TimHauck 2,870]

20 hours ago, TimHauck said:

It’s false that the numbers are “constantly revised for the worse.”   Will you admit you were wrong about that?

Bump for @Strike

[Strike 5,540]

9 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Bump for @Strike

Why would I?  I'm not wrong.  We've seen it over and over again with this administration.  Quit trying for the "gotcha" moments dude.  

[TimHauck 2,870]

14 minutes ago, Strike said:

Why would I?  I'm not wrong.  We've seen it over and over again with this administration.  Quit trying for the "gotcha" moments dude.  

Will you acknowledge the 2021 data was adjusted for the better?

[Strike 5,540]

17 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Will you acknowledge the 2021 data was adjusted for the better?

My statement was "constantly", not "always.". I was noting a trend.  I'm not playing your gotcha games.  Have a nice day.

[TimHauck 2,870]

7 minutes ago, Strike said:

My statement was "constantly", not "always.". I was noting a trend.  I'm not playing your gotcha games.  Have a nice day.

The article you shared was also misleading because it implied the change was driven by changes to the 2022 data when the bigger change (again, for the better) was to 2021. I believe the only time it mentioned 2021 was when they quoted someone who noted changes to 2021 also.   But despite the length of the article, the author never specified how 2021 changed.

I know I’ve told this to you before but you may want to do a better job vetting your sources.  Seems to be trend of you citing dubious sources.

Have a nice day as well.

[Strike 5,540]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

The article you shared was also misleading because it implied the change was driven by changes to the 2022 data when the bigger change (again, for the better) was to 2021. I believe the only time it mentioned 2021 was when they quoted someone who noted changes to 2021 also.   But despite the length of the article, the author never specified how 2021 changed.

I know I’ve told this to you before but you may want to do a better job vetting your sources.  Seems to be trend of you citing dubious sources.

Have a nice day as well.

My source was fine.   I realize it wasn't as good as a tweet like you posted, or a gaming chat room as you've relied on in the past, but it was fine.

[TimHauck 2,870]

4 minutes ago, Strike said:

My source was fine.   I realize it wasn't as good as a tweet like you posted, or a gaming chat room as you've relied on in the past, but it was fine.

The tweet I posted a few posts up is more accurate than your article.  HTH

[jbycho 754]

The murder rate didn't plummet. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

Just now, jbycho said:

The murder rate didn't plummet. 

No it did not. I wish you could get prop bets on gutterboy proclamations.  Mooney and Hackass too. 

[purdygood 352]

4 minutes ago, jbycho said:

The murder rate didn't plummet. 

It's way up in the Arconia.

[edjr 6,584]

1 minute ago, purdygood said:

It's way up in the Arconia.

How about the Ozarks? That show alone killed off many people

[jbycho 754]

I'm slowly going through Better Call Saul for the third time these days.

And in the real world, the murder rate is NOT plummeting. It's not even reducing. 

[purdygood 352]

Just now, edjr said:

How about the Ozarks? That show alone killed off many people

Marty the Murder Magnet.

[HellToupee 1,775]

7 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

My favorite is that illegals commit crime at a lower rate than citizens. I’d like to hear how that stat is tabulated.  “Officer, I was robbed by a masked man that ran that way”. Officer:   “Can you tell us the height , weight and immigration status of the perp?” 

This is a @The Real timschochet special. He loves to falsely claim the bad hombres commit less crimes than citizens

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

5 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

This is a @The Real timschochet special. He loves to falsely claim the bad hombres commit less crimes than citizens

The feds keep stats on immigration status. The majority of prisoners in federal prison are non citizens. 

[TimHauck 2,870]

1 hour ago, jbycho said:

The murder rate didn't plummet. 

“Plummeting” is more accurate than “through the roof”

[League Champion 1,911]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

“Plummeting” is more accurate than “through the roof”

Totally safe now that the election is here  

[jbycho 754]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

“Plummeting” is more accurate than “through the roof”

"PLUMMETING" means it has "PLUMMETED" at one point and is continuing to "PLUMMET".

None of that has happened, or is happening at this time.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

4 minutes ago, jbycho said:

"PLUMMETING" means it has "PLUMMETED" at one point and is continuing to "PLUMMET".

None of that has happened, or is happening at this time.  

You should check out Hackasses work in the Disney and Bud Light threads. 🪖

[TimHauck 2,870]

1 hour ago, jbycho said:

"PLUMMETING" means it has "PLUMMETED" at one point and is continuing to "PLUMMET".

None of that has happened, or is happening at this time.  

No, a word ending in -ing is generally referring to the present tense, it’s not a prediction of the future.  You (and the poster after you) might want to consult an English class.

[Nomad99 742]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

No, a word ending in -ing is generally referring to the present tense, it’s not a prediction of the future.  You (and the poster after you) might want to consult an English class.

Maybe you should go with him & maybe learn the difference between "generally" & "always".

[TimHauck 2,870]

5 hours ago, jbycho said:

"PLUMMETING" means it has "PLUMMETED" at one point and is continuing to "PLUMMET".

None of that has happened, or is happening at this time.  

 

4 hours ago, TimHauck said:

No, a word ending in -ing is generally referring to the present tense, it’s not a prediction of the future.  You (and the poster after you) might want to consult an English class.

Actually I apologize, I misread your post, you were using it as the present tense.

However, the murder rate did in fact plummet in 2023 vs 2022.  The funny thing about @Strike’s recent bump is that with 2022 being revised slightly upward, that makes the 2023 decline even larger.

And based on the report from the OP, it’s continuing to plummet in 2024 as well based on early data.

 

 

[Alias Detective 1,400]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/10/18/guns-juveniles-crime-homicide-increase/75349011007/?tbref=hp
 

 

[RLLD 4,230]

1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/10/18/guns-juveniles-crime-homicide-increase/75349011007/?tbref=hp
 

 

I think we all know that the government is lying to us, that is what government does....the media is supposed to call them out on it, but mostly serves government now....

So where it arises that the government announces anything.....focking anything.....we cannot rely on media to provide us some access to the truth, we have to simply start from the position that it is a lie, and then wait for the truth to emerge later. 

[jonnyutah 287]

1 hour ago, RLLD said:

I think we all know that the government is lying to us, that is what government does....the media is supposed to call them out on it, but mostly serves government now....

So where it arises that the government announces anything.....focking anything.....we cannot rely on media to provide us some access to the truth, we have to simply start from the position that it is a lie, and then wait for the truth to emerge later. 

This is why I just mock the fools that actually think they are winning arguments regarding crime stats. 

I mean the FBI literally messed up reporting 1699 murders and then stealthily edited it. It doesnt matter if we think that was intentional. It doesnt matter if we think it was a computer glitch. 

Arguing they also messed up 2021 doesnt make it better. 

Only a complete idiot goes to battle with FBI crime data now. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

Just now, jonnyutah said:

This is why I just mock the fools that actually think they are winning arguments regarding crime stats. 

I mean the FBI literally messed up reporting 1699 murders and then stealthily edited it. It doesnt matter if we think that was intentional. It doesnt matter if we think it was a computer glitch. 

Arguing they also messed up 2021 doesnt make it better. 

Only a complete idiot goes to battle with FBI crime data now. 

The democrats ruined them on purpose. They know what their policies lead to.  

[RLLD 4,230]

2 minutes ago, jonnyutah said:

This is why I just mock the fools that actually think they are winning arguments regarding crime stats. 

I mean the FBI literally messed up reporting 1699 murders and then stealthily edited it. It doesnt matter if we think that was intentional. It doesnt matter if we think it was a computer glitch. 

Arguing they also messed up 2021 doesnt make it better. 

Only a complete idiot goes to battle with FBI crime data 

Pick an agency.....it is not just one....the entire thing is a fountain of lying....  which the media is supposed to hold accountable.  But no longer does. 

I swear, I insist....dare I say demand....that Trump, assuming he wins, goes into these agencies and just focking guts them......and then we need policies in place that prevent politicsats.... dictating actions.   Accountability.  When an agency produces fake stats.....abusive prosecutions etc.....  I want people going to jail.....period....

[Baker Boy 1,699]

On 10/17/2024 at 7:54 PM, TimHauck said:

 

Actually I apologize, I misread your post, you were using it as the present tense.

However, the murder rate did in fact plummet in 2023 vs 2022.  The funny thing about @Strike’s recent bump is that with 2022 being revised slightly upward, that makes the 2023 decline even larger.

And based on the report from the OP, it’s continuing to plummet in 2024 as well based on early data.

 

 

ABC debate fact-check of Trump ages poorly as FBI quietly revises violent crime statistics up

'FBI says overall violent crime is actually coming down in this country,' David Muir told Trump at the debate

https://www.foxnews.com/media/abc-debate-fact-check-trump-ages-poorly-fbi-quietly-revises-violent-crime-statistics-up
 

 

Quote

Crime here is up and through the roof despite their fraudulent statements that they made," Trump said. "Crime in this country is through the roof."

Moments later, ABC debate moderator David Muir attempted to fact-check the Republican nominee. 

"President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is actually coming down in this country," Muir responded.  

Trump immediately pushed back.

"Excuse me," Trump told Muir. "They were defrauding statements. They didn't include the worst cities. They didn't include the cities with the worst crime. It was a fraud. Just like their number of 818,000 jobs that they said they created turned out to be a fraud."
A recent FBI revision appears to back Trump. After reporting there was a 2.1% drop in violent crimes in 2022, the FBI now admits there was actually a 4.5% increase. 

According to crime and data expert John Lott, the new numbers reflect a net increase of 80,029 violent crimes in 2022 over 2021. He found that under the umbrella of violent crime, there were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies and 37,091 aggravated assaults that year. 

Muir has yet to acknowledge the FBI's stat change on "World News Tonight," according to Grabien transcripts. 

 

 

[TimHauck 2,870]

20 minutes ago, Baker Boy said:

ABC debate fact-check of Trump ages poorly as FBI quietly revises violent crime statistics up

'FBI says overall violent crime is actually coming down in this country,' David Muir told Trump at the debate

https://www.foxnews.com/media/abc-debate-fact-check-trump-ages-poorly-fbi-quietly-revises-violent-crime-statistics-up
 

 

 

 

Yes thank you for confirming what I wrote.   With 2022 being revised upward, that makes the 2023 decline even larger.  They also revised 2021 downward (moreso than 2022 was revised upward).

[Baker Boy 1,699]

17 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Yes thank you for confirming what I wrote.   With 2022 being revised upward, that makes the 2023 decline even larger.  They also revised 2021 downward (moreso than 2022 was revised upward).

The Forest Was Shrinking, But The Trees Kept Voting For The Axe Because It's Handle Was Made Of Wood And They Thought It Was One Of them.

[TimHauck 2,870]

On 10/16/2024 at 3:56 PM, jonnyutah said:

Oops. We forgot to report 1699 murders from 2022. 

This is a lie, and anyone repeating it doesn’t understand data.

There was a “net increase of murders in 2022 vs 2021 of 1,699” but an overall DECREASE in murders in 2021+2022 of 449.   This is because 2021 decreased by 1074, and 2022 increased by 625.

Yes, that is a big change in murders which is unusual for the FBI reporting.  But the overall change in crime rate was in line with previous adjustments.

https://jasher.substack.com/p/the-2021-estimates-arent-suddenly?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

14 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

This is a lie, and anyone repeating it doesn’t understand data.

There was a “net increase of murders in 2022 vs 2021 of 1,699” but an overall DECREASE in murders in 2021+2022 of 449.   This is because 2021 decreased by 1074, and 2022 increased by 625.

Yes, that is a big change in murders which is unusual for the FBI reporting.  But the overall change in crime rate was in line with previous adjustments.

https://jasher.substack.com/p/the-2021-estimates-arent-suddenly?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

 

but have you considered all government is lying and Trump- is the hero who is going to save everyone.

I bet you haven't considered that at all. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,427]

Disney, Bud Light, Murders. lol.