What say you---Breece Hall as a top 3 pick this year in a ppr league???

[jtztdm 2]

Question---Anyone really trust the jets offensive line and Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy this season? I play in a 12 team ppr league and still conflicted about picking Hall at 3 overall.

If McCaffrey goes one and either Hill, Lamb or Robinson goes 2nd , would you still trust Hall at 3? I have been burnt before taking high profile rbs in the top 10 the last few years and been destroyed by there mediocre play. Injuries are one thing but mediocre play of these rbs have been crucial bad news to me. Is Hall someone you trust enough to push you and carry a team into the playoffs? Tia. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Super Cubs 155]

why not? If you want him and think he will produce take him.  I don't see it as a reach.

[GobbleDog 1,010]

1 hour ago, jtztdm said:

I have been burnt before taking high profile rbs in the top 10 the last few years and been destroyed by there mediocre play.

I rank Hall Rb 2, but won't draft him in the first round. Reason being what you just said.

1) McCaff, 2) Hall, 3) Bijan ....  Good chance 2 of those 3 don't finish top ten. Quite possibly none.

1) Lamb, 2) Hill, 3) Chase....  it'd be very surprising if 2 of those 3 don't finish top ten. Likely all them finish top 10 or darn close to it.

Most people would agree with that assessment, yet people keep drafting Rb's early.

[JagFan 192]

I’m not buying the hype on Hall.  I get it.  I’m aware of the stats last year.  I just don’t trust Discount Double Douche not to quit on his team like he did in GB…and that’s if he’s even healthy.  If I’m wrong about that, and they are good this year it’ll be Wilson in the top 3 of draft rankings next year.  He’s the only piece of that offense I’d buy at the current ADP.

[GobbleDog 1,010]

14 minutes ago, JagFan said:

I’m not buying the hype on Hall.  I get it.  I’m aware of the stats last year.  I just don’t trust Discount Double Douche not to quit on his team like he did in GB…and that’s if he’s even healthy. 

In spite of what Hall did with Zach Wilson, facing stacked defenses, and while Garrett Wilson was a target hog.?. Metrics were damn impressive. That would ease my concern about Double Douche. Seems clear cut Rb 2 to me.

I'd have more concerns about Bijan splitting goal line and early down work with Algier.

[weepaws 3,328]

ppr 3rd pick McCaffrey is gone, I’ll go wr.  

[gridiron whirlwinds 10]

I think Breece could possibly be worth 3rd pick...kid is a great receiver as well as runner.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

Sure, a pretty good case could be made for either him or Bijan at that spot

[wolves111 115]

Picking third I’d target Hill or Lamb and Henry coming back in round two: If he’s gone one of Etienne, Williams, Pacheco will be there 

[Ray_T 785]

Breece Hall has been going earlier than anticipated.   initially I thought Bijan would go ahead of him but in the July Mock he went #2.    in the IBL mock between boards he went #1 on one of the drafts.   #2 in another and #6 in a third one where Bijan went ahead of him.

so  a lot of people do think hes top 3.

[WhiteWonder 2,912]

Breece Hall is going right around where he should be. Anywhere from #2 overall to #5.  Your own philosophy on where you want to invest in RBs will dictate if you wind up drafting him or not but he is absolutely the RB2 for pre draft rankings.  

As for Hall himself, you don't really need to trust the line or Rodgers. Hall had a terrible and injury riddled line last year and the worst QB play in the league. He finished as RB2 (RB6 in points per game).  So given what the team invested in the line and the fact that right now Rodgers IS healthy, can only be positive things. 

Hall was a deep discount player in drafts last year because he was coming off an injury and he returned round 1 value. 

Personally, in PPR leagues I am interested in him as early as 4th overall with the knowledge that there are a TON of really nice receivers available in rounds 2 and 3. The receivers avalable in those rounds have less question marks than the backs in the same range, imho. 

[WhiteWonder 2,912]

On 8/10/2024 at 8:52 PM, JagFan said:

I’m not buying the hype on Hall.  I get it.  I’m aware of the stats last year.  I just don’t trust Discount Double Douche not to quit on his team like he did in GB…and that’s if he’s even healthy.  If I’m wrong about that, and they are good this year it’ll be Wilson in the top 3 of draft rankings next year.  He’s the only piece of that offense I’d buy at the current ADP.

It could very well be Wilson in the top  of rankings next year. If he has a monster, prime Davante, season and Rodgers re signs with the team, He will be a top 5 pick. 

But nothing you said in regards to Hall makes any sense. You are aware of the stats he put up last year, which made him the 2nd highest scoring RB in FF, but Rodgers potential issues make you not buy the hype? The hype is based on what he did without Rodgers....

[Ray_T 785]

47 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

It could very well be Wilson in the top  of rankings next year. If he has a monster, prime Davante, season and Rodgers re signs with the team, He will be a top 5 pick. 

But nothing you said in regards to Hall makes any sense. You are aware of the stats he put up last year, which made him the 2nd highest scoring RB in FF, but Rodgers potential issues make you not buy the hype? The hype is based on what he did without Rodgers....

yeah, and still recovering from an ACL injury to boot.   its a full 18 months to get back to normal for most so I have to think that part will be better as well.

its funny, with the QB they had I'm pretty sure nearly every game I saw they stacked the line and dared the Jets to beat them through the air.   they cant do that with Rodgers at QB.  Hed torch them.   so I'm expecting far better efficiency.     while the team may throw a bit more, they will also extend a lot more drives and score more TD.  so its a slightly smaller piece of a much larger pie.  in the end I'm expecting him to be better than he was last year.    I'd personally view last years numbers as his floor (barring injury)

[seafoam1 3,409]

I'm all in with Breece Hall. I would take him over McCaffrey this year.  But drafting an rb early depends all on how you value your team make up. Or rather, how you want to put your team together. That's a whole other conversation. 

[polecatt 485]

I wouldn't draft him 3rd overall.

The only RB I would draft in the first 7-8 picks or so is CMC.

I just can't bring myself to draft anyone from the Jets that high.

[weepaws 3,328]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I'm all in with Breece Hall. I would take him over McCaffrey this year.  But drafting an rb early depends all on how you value your team make up. Or rather, how you want to put your team together. That's a whole other conversation. 

League scoring system. 

[jtztdm 2]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

League scoring system. 

My league is 1 point per catch and yard. Also over 100 yards gets a bonus as well and there are bonuses for tds from farther distances.......

[weepaws 3,328]

1 hour ago, jtztdm said:

My league is 1 point per catch and yard. Also over 100 yards gets a bonus as well and there are bonuses for tds from farther distances.......

Based on your scoring system, you will value players a little differently.  

[JagFan 192]

23 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

It could very well be Wilson in the top  of rankings next year. If he has a monster, prime Davante, season and Rodgers re signs with the team, He will be a top 5 pick. 

But nothing you said in regards to Hall makes any sense. You are aware of the stats he put up last year, which made him the 2nd highest scoring RB in FF, but Rodgers potential issues make you not buy the hype? The hype is based on what he did without Rodgers....

I’m aware a lot of people like him.  I don’t.  If you look at his game by game stats, he was mediocre.  He blew up in a few games.  Week 1 he had something like 30 carries, and then he had a game where he caught like 17 passes.  Those two games skew his overall numbers.  But by all means, have at it.

[weepaws 3,328]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

I’m aware a lot of people like him.  I don’t.  If you look at his game by game stats, he was mediocre.  He blew up in a few games.  Week 1 he had something like 30 carries, and then he had a game where he caught like 17 passes.  Those two games skew his overall numbers.  But by all means, have at it.

He scored 20 plus points in seven games in ppr last season.  In the Regular season McCaffrey did  it 6 times.  

Hall had a lot more than just two good games. 

[polecatt 485]

He had 8 games last season with under 30 rushing yards. He had 3 games where he rushed for 100 yards. That's almost 3 times as many games under 30 yards as over 100.

He scored 9 total TDs.

Those are just not good enough numbers for a top 3 pick. He had some big games last season, but he had a few duds as well.

From a top 3 pick, RB or WR, they better be breaking 100 yards about half the games, and the ones they don't, they should be close.  At least a dozen TDs too.

Breece is a talented RB, but let's be honest, this hype about him this season is more about Aaron Rodgers than anything

[Ray_T 785]

7 hours ago, polecatt said:

I wouldn't draft him 3rd overall.

The only RB I would draft in the first 7-8 picks or so is CMC.

I just can't bring myself to draft anyone from the Jets that high.

He fell to 7th overall in a draft I am in right now.   and I was picking in 8 when he was still on the board at 7.  someone drafting out the the #10 slot tried to trade with the holder at 7 and then made me an offer I couldnt refuse.  I suspect in the hope he could take him at 8 if he slid.    but he didnt and the guy got Bijan.

either way I was happy.

while I like him a lot I value him pretty close to where I value Bijan and both of them only slightly ahead of Sequon.   but those are the only RB I'd consider in round 1 this year.   some would make a case for Johnathan Taylor and I'd say hes on the cusp.

real problem is after the top 5 or 6 picks go there is nobody that REALLY thrills me at this point in the draft.   there are so many players that are valued fairly equally.

[weepaws 3,328]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

He had 8 games last season with under 30 rushing yards. He had 3 games where he rushed for 100 yards. That's almost 3 times as many games under 30 yards as over 100.

He scored 9 total TDs.

Those are just not good enough numbers for a top 3 pick. He had some big games last season, but he had a few duds as well.

From a top 3 pick, RB or WR, they better be breaking 100 yards about half the games, and the ones they don't, they should be close.  At least a dozen TDs too.

Breece is a talented RB, but let's be honest, this hype about him this season is more about Aaron Rodgers than anything

I agree, Hall has already shown the ability to be a great rb, now he gets an uptick at Qb, makes even better imo. 

[weepaws 3,328]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

He fell to 7th overall in a draft I am in right now.   and I was picking in 8 when he was still on the board at 7.  someone drafting out the the #10 slot tried to trade with the holder at 7 and then made me an offer I couldnt refuse.  I suspect in the hope he could take him at 8 if he slid.    but he didnt and the guy got Bijan.

either way I was happy.

while I like him a lot I value him pretty close to where I value Bijan and both of them only slightly ahead of Sequon.   but those are the only RB I'd consider in round 1 this year.   some would make a case for Johnathan Taylor and I'd say hes on the cusp.

real problem is after the top 5 or 6 picks go there is nobody that REALLY thrills me at this point in the draft.   there are so many players that are valued fairly equally.

Not from what I’ve seen from Hall, without a Qb.  I think he’s easily the # 2 rb.  

[Ray_T 785]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Not from what I’ve seen from Hall, without a Qb.  I think he’s easily the # 2 rb.  

well thats what i am seeing in the drafts I've seen of late.  some prefer Bijan, but 80% of the drafts I've seen Breece Hall goes ahead of him.   I've also seen Breece go #1 in at least one draft.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

I'd take Breece #1 overall IF he could replicate his receiving totals.   

76 catches on 95 touches gonna happen again??  Go look at his game by game totals.....some huge numbers / outliers in the last few games of season.  We know the offense was trash and had no QB so he was getting a ton of check downs.  

If ARod stays healthy I see his rushing numbers, TDs specifically increasing in numbers and efficiency.  This could balance out the reduction in the passing game usage.  

Still have no issue with him at #3 overall.  I like a lot of the WRs though in the 3-6 rounds so I'd have no issue going Breece/Bijan #3 then filling my 3WR slots with 4-5 guys following.  Only start 2 WR ??  OK cool, load me up with Breece or Bijan even more.  

[GobbleDog 1,010]

3 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

I like a lot of the WRs though in the 3-6 rounds so I'd have no issue going Breece/Bijan

Interestingly, the Falcons Rbs led the league in total touches... Bijan got 51% of them. By comparison McCaff got 73% and Hall had 68%. Didn't calculate Taylor's because his situation was strange, but by the last few games he was also getting 70%+-.

Falcon's new coordinator Zac Robinson is from the Sean McVey coaching tree which typically used Rb committees outside of last year when Kyren was the only startable back.  Robinson has been quoted as saying "Allgeier is certainly going to have a big role." 

Bijan is a mega-talent, but I worry that like last year he might not get the volume drafters hope. 

[weepaws 3,328]

I think Robinson didn’t get the volume last season drafters hoped for.  He was only 17th in rushing att.  

But he still finished 9 in points non ppr, and half ppr, and 8th in points in ppr.  

His ADP is a little high, but still worthy of a 1st rd pick imo, I do think he will get more than just 214 rush att, having a better Qb could help support that. 

[defectivesupport 8]

On 8/13/2024 at 12:31 AM, Ray_T said:

real problem is after the top 5 or 6 picks go there is nobody that REALLY thrills me at this point in the draft.   there are so many players that are valued fairly equally.

This is my main thought in this years draft - there are a few that seem to be auto picks, then about 16 players that are all about equal.  Personally, Hall isn't in  those top 6 for me. 

Let's look at some of his stats:

We'll ignore his week 18 stats where he faced a NE team that was waiting for the draft.  Not counted in most FF leagues anyway.  

Hall averaged 11.6 carries / 5.8 rec per game in 2023.   Aaron Rodgers pass rate to RBs was at a similar rate. Under Rodgers the past 3 years, Aaron Jones avg 11.9 carries and 4.5 rec per game VERY consistently. Which brings me back to hall - in order for hall to have a RB1 season, he will have to have early years Kamara efficiency AND Rodgers/Jets will have to stomp some games to get him the big blowup games that will pad his stats.  Nothing points towards him getting more volume with Rodgers than he got last year. Picking him at 1-4 is picking him for his ceiling and ignoring his floor - which I am not willing to do in the first round. 

A counter point to my general feeling -to put this in perspective - the best RBs that "rely" on rec recently have been Ekeler (11.8 car/6.2 rec), Mccaffrey (17 car/4.8 rec), and Kamara (13 car/ 7.1rec).  These guys were always drafted high as the rec gave them consistent points with chances at big games.  Hall seems similar in stats to them overall, and if you think the jets line will return to 2022 form (2023 was 2.2 yard till contact, 2022 was 4.2) then Hall is probably worth a early pick, just like the others were.

[TBayXXXVII 2,660]

On 8/10/2024 at 6:25 PM, jtztdm said:

Question---Anyone really trust the jets offensive line and Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy this season? I play in a 12 team ppr league and still conflicted about picking Hall at 3 overall.

If McCaffrey goes one and either Hill, Lamb or Robinson goes 2nd , would you still trust Hall at 3? I have been burnt before taking high profile rbs in the top 10 the last few years and been destroyed by there mediocre play. Injuries are one thing but mediocre play of these rbs have been crucial bad news to me. Is Hall someone you trust enough to push you and carry a team into the playoffs? Tia. 

I wouldn't do it, but I wouldn't fault anyone else if they did it.  It could work out.