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The Real timschochet

LIBERATION DAY: 90 day pause on all tariffs except China

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    • Analysts from Rosenblatt Securities said in a note Thursday that Apple would need to increase prices for several products to offset an estimated $39.5 billion in costs from tariffs as the company relies heavily on China-based manufacturing, including a 43% price increase for iPhones and Apple Watches, a 42% increase for iPads and a 39% hike for Airpods and Mac computers. Apple released a cheaper iPhone model in February with a $599 price tag, which would increase to about $856 after a 43% increase, while its pricier $1,599 iPhone 16 Pro Max would jump to $2,300.
    • About 80% of the coffee beans imported into the U.S. come from Latin America, and most coffee imports come from Brazil (35%) and Colombia (27%) as of 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture, as both countries face tariff rates of 10%.
    • Cocoa beans, used to produce chocolate products, are largely imported from Côte d’Ivoire, Ecuador and Ghana, which face tariff rates of 21% and 10%, respectively, while cocoa butter is mostly supplied by Indonesia and Malaysia, according to the USDA, as the countries face rates of 32% and 24%, respectively.
    • The U.S. imports most of its olive oil from the European Union, with leading producers in Spain, Italy and Greece, though the U.S. has also sourced olive oil from Turkey and Argentina, according to the USDA. Turkey and Argentina were each levied with 10% tariffs.
    • The U.S. accounts for roughly 30.4% of India’s annual gems and jewelry exports, industry officials told Reuters, as India handles nine out of every 10 diamonds processed globally.
    • Sugar is largely imported into the U.S. from the Dominican Republic (17%), Brazil (14%) and the Philippines (13%), per the USDA’s estimates. The Dominican Republic and Brazil face 10% tariffs, while a 17% rate was levied on the Philippines.
    • More than 60% of rice imports into the U.S. come from Thailand, India and Pakistan, the USDA said. Thailand and Pakistan face tariffs of 36% and 29%, respectively.
    • The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates 37% of all footwear imports—an estimated $9.5 billion—to the U.S. in 2023 came from China, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday would be hit with a combined 54% tax.
    • Mattel suggested in the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call the prices of its toys—including Barbie and Hot Wheels products—would be raised in response to tariffs on China, where Mattel sources about 40% of its goods. The Toy Association told Forbes about 80% of toys imported to the U.S. come from China.
    • Wine produced across European Union nations will face a 20% tariff, as France and Italy were the top suppliers to the U.S. in 2021, though the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Argentina and Australia were also among the top wine importers, the USDA reported. Those countries each face a 10% tariff.
    • Scotch whisky, produced across the United Kingdom, will also likely rise in price: The Scotch Whisky Association said in a statement the group was “disappointed” by the U.S. levying a 10% rate on the U.K.
    • China was the largest exporter of clothing to the U.S. from 2013 to 2023, though Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia and Pakistan were also among the top suppliers, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. Those countries face tariffs of 37%, 49%, 26%, and 29%, respectively.
    • The Home Furnishings Association previously estimated about 29% of furniture imported to the U.S. came from China, while about 26.5% of imports originated from Vietnam, which faces a 46% tariff.
    • American consumers will likely pay an additional $2,000 to $5,000 for lower-end new cars produced in the U.S., with a possible $20,000 increase for some imported models, the Anderson Economic Group told Forbes in a statement. Trump previously announced a 25% tariff on all auto imports, while tariffs on auto parts start on May 3. Industry analysts estimate about 22% of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. are imported from Canada and Mexico.
    • About 34.5% of all electronicscomputersTVs and accessories like keyboardsmemory cards and hard drives, among others—and telecommunications equipment imported to the U.S. comes from China, while Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, Germany and South Korea are also among the top exporters.
    • Canada is the largest exporter of meat to the U.S., accounting for about $14 billion in goods in 2023. Other Canadian imports include beefporkgrainsfeeds and oilseedsaccording to the USDA.
    • The Canadian government previously warned tariffs could raise the prices of dairy products like milkcheese and eggs, as well as winter coatsglassware and appliances like ovensstoves and microwaves.
    • About 88% of all avocado imports to the U.S. between 2019 and 2021 came from Mexico, and the U.S. imported about $45 billion in agricultural products from Mexico in 2023, including strawberriesraspberries and tomatoes, the USDA reported.
    • Tequila accounts for roughly 10% of agricultural imports from Mexico, while 81% of all imported beer in the U.S.—accounting for 18% of total beer consumed—also comes from Mexico, where PacificoCorona and top-selling Modelo are brewed, according to estimates from the USDA and Commerce Department.
    • Several Canadian trade groups and the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. warned the prices of bourbonTennessee whiskey and Canadian whisky would likely increase a a result of the tariffs.
    •  It’s unclear whether drug prices would be directly affected by tariffs, though researchers suggest a tariff on imported drugs from Canada would add $750 million in costs. Diederik Stadig, a healthcare analyst at ING, estimated tariffs would increase prices of low-cost, generic drugs by up to $0.12 per pill, and more expensive drugs—those used to treat cancer, among others—by up to $10,000.
    • Stellantis will pause production at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico in response to Trump’s auto tariffs, according to a company memo obtained by CNBC. About 900 U.S.-based employees will reportedly be temporarily laid off as a result. 
    • Haul, Amazon’s low-cost retailer that relies on third-party sellers and China, has also reportedly relied on the exemption. All goods that would previously qualify under the de minimis exemption will now be subject to additional charges of about 30% of their value or $25 per item, the White House said.

     

    Forbes

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6 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Nancy when she was logical 

How did she always look so drunk? 

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2 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Bernie being smart 

Look you’re going to find plenty of Democrats in the past making arguments for tariffs: that’s because government intervention in business is traditionally a liberal, not a conservative thing. But it’s a dumb argument by you because NOBODY in modern history has ever recommended across the board tariffs on everything. It’s unheard of because it’s so stupid. You’d have to be a complete moron to attempt it. 

That being said, in future years when we look back on this calamity, there will be just as much attention paid to those who blindly went along, or cheered this, as to Trump himself. 

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7 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Look you’re going to find plenty of Democrats in the past making arguments for tariffs: that’s because government intervention in business is traditionally a liberal, not a conservative thing. But it’s a dumb argument by you because NOBODY in modern history has ever recommended across the board tariffs on everything. It’s unheard of because it’s so stupid. You’d have to be a complete moron to attempt it. 

That being said, in future years when we look back on this calamity, there will be just as much attention paid to those who blindly went along, or cheered this, as to Trump himself. 

I was a democrat back then, and I supported Bernie in as well, my views have never changed

you sit here and pretend that the system is working just fine as we get buried in more and more debt and jobs disappear to foreign nations continually

smart countries would take this opportunity to negotiate some great fair trade deals right now

 

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Some people are taking the news of increased coffee prices pretty hard.  

 

 

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Disclaimer:  I am not a global macro-economic professional unlike all of you.

The US has the largest Trade Deficit in all of the world mainly because manufacturing left America and went abroad (cheap labor, probably inhumane in certain places like Vietnam and China to be fair).  If reciprocal tariffs have a short term pain (stock market) but a long term gain (less trade deficit, manufacturing coming back to America, middle class jobs) then I'm for it.  Makes common sense to me.

I just wish Trump would have staggered these tariff's over time instead of just ripping off the band aid.  I think it would've lessened the market reaction.  But that's not Trumps style: So be it.  

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2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

OR Apple and Nike can manufacture in America instead of sweatshops in Vietnam.  That is part of the point.  :dunno:

I thought liberals were against inhumane working conditions and for the American middle class?  What happened?

Now that I think about you guys are now pro Big Pharma too.  JFC, talk about a total 180. 

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Just now, KSB2424 said:

OR Apple and Nike can manufacture in America instead of sweatshops in Vietnam.  That is part of the point.  :dunno:

I thought liberals were against inhumane working conditions and for the American middle class?  What happened?

They aren't against anything other than intelligence. 

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I like how Grifter Don spent a year biiching about inflation and promising lower prices Day 1. Then he pulls this stunt and all the rubes immediately pivot to “short term pain for long term manufacturing growth!”

Sad part is, when Don takes the tariffs off they’ll just move on to the next excuse. :( 

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18 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

OR Apple and Nike can manufacture in America instead of sweatshops in Vietnam.  That is part of the point.  :dunno:

I thought liberals were against inhumane working conditions and for the American middle class?  What happened?

Now that I think about you guys are now pro Big Pharma too.  JFC, talk about a total 180. 

How do we get around people doing that work for 2 bucks an hour or whatever?

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1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

How do we get around people doing that work for 2 bucks an hour or whatever?

Tariffs and higher prices. 

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2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

How do we get around people doing that work for 2 bucks an hour or whatever?

You are really dumb..😆

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Just now, blick said:

Tariffs and higher prices. 

Higher prices for sure. There’s no way around this.

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9 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

How do we get around people doing that work for 2 bucks an hour or whatever?

Fair question, and that's the rub.  I know this goes against everything Geek Club,  but I don't know.  

Wouldn't it be nice if Apple or Nike.... invest in America?  Their EBITIDA would probably be the same, but the Executives take home would take a hit.  

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34 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

Disclaimer:  I am not a global macro-economic professional unlike all of you.

The US has the largest Trade Deficit in all of the world mainly because manufacturing left America and went abroad (cheap labor, probably inhumane in certain places like Vietnam and China to be fair).  If reciprocal tariffs have a short term pain (stock market) but a long term gain (less trade deficit, manufacturing coming back to America, middle class jobs) then I'm for it.  Makes common sense to me.

I just wish Trump would have staggered these tariff's over time instead of just ripping off the band aid.  I think it would've lessened the market reaction.  But that's not Trumps style: So be it.  

So much wrong with this. But let’s start with a very basic question: please explain why trade deficits are bad for the United States. 

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24 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

OR Apple and Nike can manufacture in America instead of sweatshops in Vietnam.  That is part of the point.  :dunno:

I thought liberals were against inhumane working conditions and for the American middle class?  What happened?

Now that I think about you guys are now pro Big Pharma too.  JFC, talk about a total 180. 

Yes, folks please pay $2300 for your new iPhone while you wait 15 years for Apple to build new factories here. And btw they will still cost $2300 and maybe more because our workers demand higher pay.

Forbes is not liberal. It's just business.

Adding 10% per pill, nearly $1 billion more in drug costs is definitely pro-pharma - let's face it folks all these big industries are more than happy to charge more for everything - but that's Trump's doing.

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9 minutes ago, KSB2424 said:

Fair question, and that's the rub.  I know this goes against everything Geek Club, but I don't know.  

Wouldn't it be nice if Apple or Nike, invest in America?  Their EBITIDA would probably be the same, but the Executives take home would take a hit.  

Apple does invest in America in many ways. Some guy in Ohio producing phones instead of Vietnam however, there’s no way to do this. 

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1 minute ago, KSB2424 said:

Fair question, and that's the rub.  I know this goes against everything Geek Club, but I don't know.  

Wouldn't it be nice if Apple or Nike, invest in America?  Their EBITIDA would probably be the same, but the Executives take home would take a hit.  

It’s not that you don’t know; it’s that the answer is it’s not possible. 
Keep in mind that even if somehow this situation ultimately results in more manufacturing in the USA, it will be mostly automation doing the work. We’re not really going to gain from that. 

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6 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Yes, folks please pay $2300 for your new iPhone while you wait 15 years for Apple to build new factories here. And btw they will still cost $2300 and maybe more because our workers demand higher pay.

Forbes is not liberal. It's just business.

Adding 10% per pill, nearly $1 billion more in drug costs is definitely pro-pharma - let's face it folks all these big industries are more than happy to charge more for everything - but that's Trump's doing.

Trump is not adding tariffs to pharmaceuticals.

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20 hours ago, mobb_deep said:

My insurance premiums better go down. There’s never been a hurricane in the Gulf of America.

:wave: from HTX 

 

Mobb. whazzup?!  Glad to see you buddy.  Hope all is well, and that you stick around more.

What is HTX?  

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47 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

Mobb. whazzup?!  Glad to see you buddy.  Hope all is well, and that you stick around more.

What is HTX?  

Houston Metro Area? 

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1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Trump is not adding tariffs to pharmaceuticals.

 

Quote

While announcing his reciprocal tariffs, Trump warned pharmaceutical companies to return production to the U.S., saying, “[They] are going to come roaring back … they’re all coming back to our country because if they don’t, they've got a big tax to pay.”

Trump floated tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in February, suggesting levies would be “25% and higher” and would become “very substantially higher over a course of the year” unless companies shift production to U.S.-based facilities.
The article I posted made clear that pharmaceuticals were excluded, however the post I was responding to suggested I must be pro-"Big Pharma". I was merely responding that tariffs would very much just allow Big Pharma to crank up their prices, which is what all the major industries will do. Nonetheless, Trump is indeed threatening and has threatened to include pharmaceuticals in his ad valorum taxes.

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2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

So much wrong with this. But let’s start with a very basic question: please explain why trade deficits are bad for the United States. 

"There's a $39 billion trade deficit with Switzerland.?. Quick, massive tariffs!"  Switzerland's population is 9 million, the US population is 340 million. Ya expect so few to spend more than the US?  That doesn't make sense.

"We're running a $640 million trade surplus with Ukraine.?. Massive tariffs!"  Um, what?

How much tariff should we apply to countries run by dictators like Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus?  "Nothing, I like them." 

:blink:

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Again, I am not a Global Macro Economic Tariff specialist, however what I do know is the U S of A is in massive debt. 

So lets do something different?  Call me crazy.... :dunno:

 

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3 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Some guy in Ohio producing phones instead of Vietnam however, there’s no way to do this. 

But why not?  We just accept this and ask no further questions?  Yes the iPhone can be manufactured in Ohio. And consumers can purchase it for around the same price.  

The CEO, CFO, COO and the Executive board will make 25% less in salary and bonus. 

 

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3 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Yes, folks please pay $2300 for your new iPhone while you wait 15 years for Apple to build new factories here. And btw they will still cost $2300 and maybe more because our workers demand higher pay.

Forbes is not liberal. It's just business.

Adding 10% per pill, nearly $1 billion more in drug costs is definitely pro-pharma - let's face it folks all these big industries are more than happy to charge more for everything - but that's Trump's doing.

How many iPhones do you buy 15 years dumbass? I'll gladly pay more for a couple phones to get manufacturing here.  I'm a patriot.   

And it doesn't take 15 years to build a factory. More like 5.  And the tariffs aren't 130%.  JFC hyperventilating Helen.    

I'll also pay that extra hundred bucks for the new dishwasher!!!!  BFD.  

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9 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

"There's a $39 billion trade deficit with Switzerland.?. Quick, massive tariffs!"  Switzerland's population is 9 million, the US population is 340 million. Ya expect so few to spend more than the US?  That doesn't make sense.

"We're running a $640 million trade surplus with Ukraine.?. Massive tariffs!"  Um, what?

How much tariff should we apply to countries run by dictators like Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus?  "Nothing, I like them." 

:blink:

Man, you just got it all figured out huh? Too bad there’s no super duper smart people like you in Trumps ear who would overlook something like that 

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18 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Man, you just got it all figured out huh? Too bad there’s no super duper smart people like you in Trumps ear who would overlook something like that 

We also have sanctions with those countries so trade is already tightly controlled. These people are retarded.

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11 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Yes, folks please pay $2300 for your new iPhone while you wait 15 years for Apple to build new factories here. And btw they will still cost $2300 and maybe more because our workers demand higher pay.

Forbes is not liberal. It's just business.

Adding 10% per pill, nearly $1 billion more in drug costs is definitely pro-pharma - let's face it folks all these big industries are more than happy to charge more for everything - but that's Trump's doing.

We have a case study for this.  The washing machine tariffs from the first trump term.

It's very straightforward.  Tariffs went on washing machines, prices went up, imports down, a few us jobs added but nothing revolutionary.

In all the cost bore for each job was around $800k which is a terrible ROI.

The washing machine tariffs were a dud.  Now he's trying it with everything.  We know this won't work.

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1 hour ago, Dizkneelande said:

We also have sanctions with those countries so trade is already tightly controlled. These people are retarded.

It’s just funny to me he thought something so obvious would be overlooked lol like cmon man 

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9 hours ago, Horseman said:

How many iPhones do you buy 15 years? I'll gladly pay more for a couple phones to get manufacturing here.  I'm a patriot.   

And it doesn't take 15 years to build a factory. More like 5.  And the tariffs aren't 130%.  

I'll also pay that extra hundred bucks for the new dishwasher!!!! 

You seem like a genuinely decent, interesting & successful person. I’m sure you’ll be fine. But we’ve established this, it’s not about the secluded, impervious, independently wealthy. Frankly it has nothing to do with you.

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1 hour ago, Dizkneelande said:

We also have sanctions with those countries so trade is already tightly controlled. These people are retarded.

 

4 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

It’s just funny to me he thought something so obvious would be overlooked lol like cmon man 

We import $3.5B from Russia, with a trade deficit of about $3B.  No tariff.

Look at Lesotho.  You probably never even heard of it.  We import $240M from them.  They got a 50% tariff.

That nullifies your argument that light trading countries should be exempt.

 

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6 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

 

We import $3.5B from Russia, with a trade deficit of about $3B.  No tariff.

Look at Lesotho.  You probably never even heard of it.  We import $240M from them.  They got a 50% tariff.

That nullifies your argument that light trading countries should be exempt.

 

Okay so? It’s still on purpose, it wasn’t overlooked like Goober was suggesting 

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2 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Okay so? It’s still on purpose, it wasn’t overlooked like Goober was suggesting 

I agree it wasn’t an oversight. Trump specifically excluding Russia & Belarus is in keeping with Trump’s fealty to Moscow. There’s no other explanation for it.

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4 minutes ago, iam90sbaby said:

Okay so? It’s still on purpose, it wasn’t overlooked like Goober was suggesting 

You have an inability to detect sarcasm.

Of course it was on purpose.  That's the point.

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