“Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn…”

[posty 2,806]

Time to crank up the fearmongering again…

https://wtop.com/world/2025/05/5-year-forecast-sees-more-killer-heat-fires-and-temperature-records/

WASHINGTON (AP) — Get ready for several years of even more record-breaking heat that pushes Earth to more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world’s top weather agencies forecast.

There’s an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it’s even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.

“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the calculations but said they made sense. “So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.”

With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change “we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),” emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.

And for the first time there’s a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world’s annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.

There’s an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.

The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.

Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and science scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking.”

“It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us,” Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.

Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement’s threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.

“With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deathsand severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,” said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.

Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.

What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn’t go back down much, if at all.

“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.

[patweisers44 864]

Earth is 4.5 billion years old, this stuff goes in cycles.  Earth has also proven pretty good at healing itself.  

 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,908]

Coldest spring I can remember. Rainiest too. 

[thegeneral 3,545]

10 minutes ago, patweisers44 said:

Earth is 4.5 billion years old, this stuff goes in cycles.  Earth has also proven pretty good at healing itself.  

 

Problem is there are billions of people living on it now. 

[BunnysBastatrds 2,581]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

Problem is there are billions of people living on it now. 

 Yes, all that flatulence is going to kill us all.
 

[Engorgeous George 2,332]

3 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Problem is there are billions of people living on it now. 

Not once the warming allows the next super virus to flourish.  It will start in the tropics, no doubt.  With the mobility of the world in will travel far an wide but the tropics will bear the brunt.

[thegeneral 3,545]

14 minutes ago, BunnysBastatrds said:

 Yes, all that flatulence is going to kill us all.
 

I do my part!

[TheNewGirl 1,634]

20 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Problem is there are billions of people living on it now. 

Nature has a way of finding "a way." Maybe trillions on the planet isn't a good thing; another plague will wipe most of us out, and it starts again. 

Up to 60% of Europe's population was wiped out during the Black Plague, and took about 80 years to recover...but it recovered. 

Just like after times of war, more male babies are born than female for a few years; the Earth has a way of creating balance. 

[BunnysBastatrds 2,581]

3 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I do my part!

 I think you meant fart!

[Mike Honcho 5,411]

7 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

Nature has a way of finding "a way." Maybe trillions on the planet isn't a good thing; another plague will wipe most of us out, and it starts again. 

Up to 60% of Europe's population was wiped out during the Black Plague, and took about 80 years to recover...but it recovered. 

Just like after times of war, more male babies are born than female for a few years; the Earth has a way of creating balance. 

Are you quoting Jurassic Park to us?  

[TheNewGirl 1,634]

12 minutes ago, Mike Honcho said:

Are you quoting Jurassic Park to us?  

No, although there is some truth to nature (life) finding a way.   It happens all the time. 

[listen2me 23 1,948]

Tell this heat wave to hurry up.  Been a slow start to golf season here.  

[WhiteWonder 2,904]

1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

Tell this heat wave to hurry up.  Been a slow start to golf season here.  

[patweisers44 864]

2 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Problem is there are billions of people living on it now. 

We have about 150 years of data on a planet thats been around for 4.5 Billion years.   Small sample size.  I am old enough to recall in the 1970s that "scientists" were basically predicting another ice age. 

[thegeneral 3,545]

2 hours ago, TheNewGirl said:

Nature has a way of finding "a way." Maybe trillions on the planet isn't a good thing; another plague will wipe most of us out, and it starts again. 

Up to 60% of Europe's population was wiped out during the Black Plague, and took about 80 years to recover...but it recovered. 

Just like after times of war, more male babies are born than female for a few years; the Earth has a way of creating balance. 

Sounds great!

[TBayXXXVII 2,656]

1 hour ago, TheNewGirl said:

No, although there is some truth to nature (life) finding a way.   It happens all the time. 

I think the people who used to say "Trust the science", called this kind of thing "evolution".  That's not a money grift like "Climate Change" is, so they switched gears.

[patweisers44 864]

20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the people who used to say "Trust the science", called this kind of thing "evolution".  That's not a money grift like "Climate Change" is, so they switched gears.

"Trust the science" until it doesnt fit the focked up liberal agenda anymore.

[Engorgeous George 2,332]

3 hours ago, TheNewGirl said:

Nature has a way of finding "a way." Maybe trillions on the planet isn't a good thing; another plague will wipe most of us out, and it starts again. 

Up to 60% of Europe's population was wiped out during the Black Plague, and took about 80 years to recover...but it recovered. 

Just like after times of war, more male babies are born than female for a few years; the Earth has a way of creating balance. 

No biological imperative for more males since one male can impregnate hundreds, even thousands and can do so across generational years.

[TheNewGirl 1,634]

22 minutes ago, Engorgeous George said:

No biological imperative for more males since one male can impregnate hundreds, even thousands and can do so across generational years.

There have been studies conducted that the ratio of males to females was higher after war times than before or during. This was seen after WW1 and WW2. 

Normal ratio is about 1.03 to 1.06 males to female, after times of war, that increases to as high as 1.15 male to female in some countries. 

Human Sex Ratio, Returning Soldier Phenomenon. There are some really good reads out there. 

ETA: During warmer years, more males are also born. 

[thegeneral 3,545]

1 hour ago, patweisers44 said:

We have about 150 years of data on a planet thats been around for 4.5 Billion years.   Small sample size.  I am old enough to recall in the 1970s that "scientists" were basically predicting another ice age. 

There is more than 150 years of data. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,656]

1 hour ago, patweisers44 said:

"Trust the science" until it doesnt fit the focked up liberal agenda anymore.

Exactly.  You notice that ever since they pushed hard for abortion and transgender rights as well as the COVID vax, they've somewhat abandoned the "trust the science" mantra they always tried to shove down our throats?

[patweisers44 864]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

There is more than 150 years of data. 

175?  Of accurate data anyway.  Even if its a couple thousand its still a small sample size.

[MLCKAA 586]

3 hours ago, patweisers44 said:

We have about 150 years of data on a planet thats been around for 4.5 Billion years.   Small sample size.  I am old enough to recall in the 1970s that "scientists" were basically predicting another ice age. 

Well, they weren’t “basically” predicting it, they were clearly and explicitly predicting it.  

I think this gets swept under the rug too easily.  The alarmists were glaringly wrong then, but we’re supposed to accept that they’re definitely right this time.  Call me a skeptic.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,339]

6 hours ago, Mike Honcho said:

Are you quoting Jurassic Park to us?  

I found a way with yur mom. 

[5-Points 3,747]

5 hours ago, patweisers44 said:

We have about 150 years of data on a planet thats been around for 4.5 Billion years.   Small sample size.  I am old enough to recall in the 1970s that "scientists" were basically predicting another ice age. 

#MeToo

That never happened either. 

 

The sun will eventually burn out and life on this planet will cease to exist. Freaking out about it now won't stop it from happening. 

[jbycho 754]

17 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

#MeToo

That never happened either. 

 

The sun will eventually burn out and life on this planet will cease to exist. Freaking out about it now won't stop it from happening. 

Nor should anyone waste their time, emotions, and resources to try to stop it from happening. 

I love it when people think they are bigger and better than actual nature and universe. 

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,339]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Exactly.  You notice that ever since they pushed hard for abortion and transgender rights as well as the COVID vax, they've somewhat abandoned the "trust the science" mantra they always tried to shove down our throats?

Yeah, kind of embarrassing for them to be exposed as actual science deniers as they were pointing fingers at others.

[5-Points 3,747]

27 minutes ago, jbycho said:

Nor should anyone waste their time, emotions, and resources to try to stop it from happening. 

I love it when people think they are bigger and better than actual nature and universe. 

It's pointless because its inevitable. 

That won't stop shitbags from trying to profit off of it or dummies from obliging them, though. 

 

[easilyscan 999]

On 5/28/2025 at 2:18 PM, Engorgeous George said:

No biological imperative for more males since one male can impregnate hundreds, even thousands and can do so across generational years.

Wilt Chamberlain