Ray_T 759 Posted Friday at 12:59 AM Hey guys, I debated not making this post public, cuz this kind of post really gets people riled up........but after thinking about this, I have to speak out. Bowers is the concensus #1 TE in the NFL this year. I'm telling you I dont think hes gonna be #1. here is why: Pete Carroll historically his offenses do not Feature a TE. for the most part he doesnt have TE that finish in the top 10 or even top 15. then one year he traded for Jimmy Graham. who was the concensus top TE in the NFL with the Saints. he played 3 seasons in seattle. one Meh season, one good season (TE3) and another Meh season and then he was traded. that's literally the only sniff of the top 10 any of his TE's have had during his tenure in Seattle. due to the talent, Im sure he will utilize Bowers. but I do not think he finishes #1. I think he tops out at #4 or #5. Top 3 if everything goes right. But there is a lot more risk here than people think there is. This is not a Criticism of Bowers. Hes a superb talent. This is all about the Pete Carroll offense. say what you will about the guy, but TE are historically not productive under him. thats my prediction. I fully realize a lot of you will be mad at me for making this prediction, but see for yourself. Look at how Carrolls TE's have historically produced. It aint pretty. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 608 Posted Friday at 01:03 AM Who else are they going to throw it to? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 759 Posted Friday at 01:18 AM fair point. Jacobi. but my belief is he wont fall completely off the map. he just wont be the #1 guy. Carroll likes to run the ball and throw to the WR. due to the lack of talent at WR I'm predicting a robust ground game. he will still get significant action for the reason you have alluded to I'm just saying not to expect him to be the TE1 this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maximum Overkill 2,091 Posted Friday at 11:32 AM Trey McBride is TE1 this year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Showboat 256 Posted Friday at 02:48 PM I think that Carroll is a good coach and good coaches figure out how to use talented players. Arguably, Jimmy Graham was past his prime when he went to the Seahawks (and he was certainly not even close to being the best player on those Seahawk teams). Bowers is possibly the best offensive player on the Raiders (and certainly their best receiver). While guaranteeing a #1 TE finish is a fools errand, Bowers is certainly in the top tier of TEs. I would not be worried. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 759 Posted Friday at 03:05 PM 15 minutes ago, Showboat said: I think that Carroll is a good coach and good coaches figure out how to use talented players. Arguably, Jimmy Graham was past his prime when he went to the Seahawks (and he was certainly not even close to being the best player on those Seahawk teams). Bowers is possibly the best offensive player on the Raiders (and certainly their best receiver). While guaranteeing a #1 TE finish is a fools errand, Bowers is certainly in the top tier of TEs. I would not be worried. all good points. my main one is that his coach has historically not gotten top production out of the TE position. so drafting him as the first TE off the board might not be as wise as you think. he will still be good. dont get me wrong. but a repeat of last years numbers would be expecting a lot given the situation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 3,220 Posted Friday at 03:17 PM If you draft a te as high as bowers adp, he better be the top producing te. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,571 Posted Friday at 03:57 PM 14 hours ago, Ray_T said: Hey guys, I debated not making this post public, cuz this kind of post really gets people riled up........but after thinking about this, I have to speak out. Bowers is the concensus #1 TE in the NFL this year. I'm telling you I dont think hes gonna be #1. here is why: Pete Carroll historically his offenses do not Feature a TE. for the most part he doesnt have TE that finish in the top 10 or even top 15. then one year he traded for Jimmy Graham. who was the concensus top TE in the NFL with the Saints. he played 3 seasons in seattle. one Meh season, one good season (TE3) and another Meh season and then he was traded. that's literally the only sniff of the top 10 any of his TE's have had during his tenure in Seattle. due to the talent, Im sure he will utilize Bowers. but I do not think he finishes #1. I think he tops out at #4 or #5. Top 3 if everything goes right. But there is a lot more risk here than people think there is. This is not a Criticism of Bowers. Hes a superb talent. This is all about the Pete Carroll offense. say what you will about the guy, but TE are historically not productive under him. thats my prediction. I fully realize a lot of you will be mad at me for making this prediction, but see for yourself. Look at how Carrolls TE's have historically produced. It aint pretty. I can see your point. Carroll generally force-feeds his situation into more heavily relying on the run than the pass. I think he's kind of setting that up in Vegas with drafting Jeanty. What's interesting though, is that the with Geno Smith (post Russell Wilson), in Seattle, Pete Carroll's offense was definitely throwing more often. Geno averaged 33.5 passes per game while averaged 30... but over the last 3 years with Wilson, he averaged 32. He got more willing to pass as the league shifted. Wilson, in his first 4 seasons, only averaged 27 attempts per game. I think Carroll has evolved with the league enough to know that he needs to throw more often than he used to. In those years you mentioned with Graham, about his less than expected fantasy production, he was still the second most targeted player on the team. I just think the offense wasn't very good because those years were really bad for he Seahawks in terms of the talent at RB. It was a lot more of "Russell, you do it". That's not a good recipe for the passing game. That likely won't be the situation in Vegas. Geno knows what Carroll wants. I think Chip Kelly will have an offense that will maximize the talent he has. I mean, his offenses at OSU were pretty potent. Look at this way, with LeSean McCoy at RB and Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles at QB, Jeremy Maclin had 1300 yards and 10 TDs... Jordan Mathews almost had 900 yards and 8 TD's on 67 receptions and had a top 5 offense. Riley Cooper had an 800 yard 8 TD season with Chip Kelly. Back in 2021, I said Brady would throw for 5000 yards and 50 TD's. He threw for 5300 and 43... I wasn't that far off. I said I expect both Godwin and Evans to have WR1 seasons (if they stayed healthy). I wasn't too far off there either.... Evans was WR9 and Godwin WR15. Though, if you look at fpg, Godwin was 7th and Evans was 11th. The reason for those predictions was volume. I fully expected the Bucs to throw the ball 700 times... Brady had 719 attempts that year. How does that translate? I expect Geno Smith to throw the ball at least 550 times this year. So, who's getting the targets? How many targets do you expect Jakobi to get? Bech? Tucker? In order, I'll say 110, 55, & 70... bringing us up to 235 leaving us with about 315 left out there. Let's be generous and say 75 to the other WR's and TE's... that's still 240 left. Last year, Mattison & Abdullah accounted for 95 pass targets... they're both gone. In their place is Jeanty and Mostert, and neither are noted pass catchers. Want to give them 80? We're down to 160... that's about where Bowers was last year. Let's be negative and say he gets 140, catches 68% for 10 ypr... that's 95 receptions for 950 yards... we'll give him the same 5 TD's. That's 220 fantasy points. Last year, that's TE4. I think that's his floor. Interestingly enough, he was TE3 in terms of fpg. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites