Ghosts of RB past.... Is Montee Ball really worth 1-2?

[envoy9 5]

I see that Montee Ball is basically universally projected in at least the 2nd round, if not the first. Yet, he hasn't done anything yet... seriously, Moreno was the man last year, and the projections are for Ball to put up 1st round like production with no evidence. I've been burned drafting guys like Dom Davis, Ryan Grant, Michael Turner who had high ADPs with nothing to really show but "potential".

 

If you're drafting Ball in the 1st or early 2nd, or would definitley do it, I would be interested to know why you would take the risk based purely on potential?

[trucarl 1]

See Knowshon Moreno, or any other Peyton Manning starting RB. That, plus potential, makes Ball a pretty valuable asset. I dont think he has very much competition either, plus they invested a high draft pick in him. There are a lot of reasons to like Montee Ball as he could easily be a top 5 RB this season. I think his downside is still a top 20 RB.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

Have you watched him play? He's a bowling ball with legs. Incredibly quick burst, but not great long speed. He also has natural hands for a RB. His pass blocking is excellent per John Fox, so he's not leaving the field on third down. In that offense, with Peyton under Center and all those weapons, He could easily finish in the top 5 to 6 RB's if healthy all season. I have been taking him in every league I can, even higher stakes leagues. I've noticed the higher the entry fee, the further he falls, so I think a lot of people are a bit worried about taking him so early. I am not.

 

Last season, Moreno did a lot, with far less talent. He also didn't have Clady most of the time. Watch Ball run. He has very quick feet and has the ability to run you over, or go around you. Even a team with great linebackers have to play off the line to try and defend against Manning. I don't see Ball getting hit in the backfield often because of this and if he is running against mostly nickel formations, which he will be, who is going to tackle him? I see an incredible amount of 6 to 8 yard carries in his future, enough to give him ypc average this season of near 5. Throw that in with his receptions and TD's (there is no TD vulture in Denver) and you have the makings of a high first round pick next season.

[montana 89]

Burned by Turner?...The first year he started in Atlanta?

 

How so?

[skinsrule05 30]

Burned by Turner?...The first year he started in Atlanta?

How so?

I was wondering that too. In Turner's first year w Atlanta he went for over 1700 yds and 17 TDS.

[Matt Mueller 146]

After all the 2nd year rbs that crashed and burned last year I'm not inclined to take someone with this short of a track record but that's me.

[rowdystylz1 3]

I have a draft tonight in a 12 team standard and will be selecting Ball at 6 overall after the Big4 and Lacy are off the board. There is plenty tape of what Ball is capable of and gimme the guy who Peyton will be turning around handing the ball to all day long.

[bobby heenan 60]

Agree with UCT and rowdystylz....

 

Pick 6 in a .5 ppr league...I will take ball at 6....if lacy is still on the board I'll have a tough choice....

 

Willing to take the risk on ball over mega or dt because I think I can still get a potential top 5 wideout in the 2nd.....ball has top 3-5 potential at rb....

 

80 percent of Denvers runs last year were with 6 or less guys in the box....he can catch the ball....he's a guy that should trip into the end one 10 times just on opportunity....if things were to fall in place it could

Be 15 times

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,584]

not me, no way, dude has had fumbling issues, blitz pickup issues, and isnt going to even see any preseason work after the apendectomy. He may take 2-3 games to get warmed up, but if during that time he misses a couple blitzes, puts the ball on the ground, he could work himself into a timeshare

[bobby heenan 60]

Hillman behind him has just as much of a fumbling issue as anyone....ball is the the best back on that team and they want him to succeed....he's going to have to bomb and royally up continually for him to become worthless

 

How many rookie backs are ever praised for their pass protection their rookie year? It's basically an issue for every rookie rb and every coach makes it a pooint to point out how their rookie rb struggles with it and need to improve

 

Balls "injury" is non football related...I'm not concerned about him logging carries in preseason games...as long as he's able to run and stay in shape...and practice soon....I'm good

[Djgb13 2,338]

He's too risky for a first round pick. You want your first rounder to be a solid sure thing. I don't like gambling that early in the draft. Rounds 4-5 I can gamble a little but not with my anchors.

[bobby heenan 60]

Djgb

 

Do u gamble in the. 2nd round? Usually those guys are anchors too....

 

And there isn't a back ur gonna get 6-17 who is any more of a sure thing than ball ...and there isn't one who has his upside either

 

U can take your sure thing in dt or mega... Then ur be looking at that 2nd tier of backs that all have issues.....I can get a back wtth balls tremendous upside in rd 1 and still get me a wr like maybe Marshall, Jeffrey, jordy or julio.....I like ball paired with one of those guys over dt/mega paired with. Gio bell or whatever else is there

 

Denver is handing the keys to ball and are apparently more than comfy doing so...they let moreno walk for not a hell of a lot of money...and did nothing to upgrade the position overall....this is a team geared in serious win now mode ....if they were concerned with balls ability in any aspect I'm sure they would have done something about it

[tiggo25 4]

I was looking for some stats on Peyton Manning running backs. Here is a good article to help you make your decision:

 

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap2000000342280/article/breaking-down-peyton-mannings-running-backs

[Djgb13 2,338]

Djgb

Do u gamble in the. 2nd round? Usually those guys are anchors too....

And there isn't a back ur gonna get 6-17 who is any more of a sure thing than ball ...and there isn't one who has his upside either

U can take your sure thing in dt or mega... Then ur be looking at that 2nd tier of backs that all have issues.....I can get a back wtth balls tremendous upside in rd 1 and still get me a wr like maybe Marshall, Jeffrey, jordy or julio.....I like ball paired with one of those guys over dt/mega paired with. Gio bell or whatever else is there

Denver is handing the keys to ball and are apparently more than comfy doing so...they let moreno walk for not a hell of a lot of money...and did nothing to upgrade the position overall....this is a team geared in serious win now mode ....if they were concerned with balls ability in any aspect I'm sure they would have done something about it

Of course second rounders are anchors. Thought that was implied. And as for ball I'm not saying I don't like him. I just don't like risking a high draft pick on someone who has yet to prove anything. Situation is great for him no doubt. But the same could be said for Trent Richardson last year and he proved himself the year before. Look how that turned out. I'm not saying luck is Peyton manning but still that's a high draft pick for someone that didn't get the job last year. If you gamble on him and he turns out to be golden then you drafts a good number 1. However, he can very easily not do so hot, have fumbling issues, or pass blocking issues which can turn them into a rbbc team. It's just too much of a high pick for me but for you other guys go for it.

[weepaws 2,460]

Better talent then Moreno , and he playes with the Manning lead Broncos team . Now if you and I pray others that are in my leagues, want to pass on him and wait until he gets more of a history , that's ok with me .

[Baker Boy 1,485]

not me, no way, dude has had fumbling issues, blitz pickup issues, and isnt going to even see any preseason work after the apendectomy. He may take 2-3 games to get warmed up, but if during that time he misses a couple blitzes, puts the ball on the ground, he could work himself into a timeshare

 

Here is something no one has ever said before: Wisconsin running back Montee Ball just lost a fumble.

 

On his third carry of the day against UTEP, Ball lost a fumble for the first time in his career.

 

How rare is this? Look at these numbers:

 

*655: Career carries before his first lost fumble.

*802: Career touches before his first lost fumble.

 

So ... yeah, rare.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/gameon/post/2012/09/22/montee-ball-fumble-wisconsin-badgers-football/70000908/1#.U_JoImK9KSM

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,584]

this just screams too much Ryan Mathews to me. Highly (even more skilled) RB has a solid rookie year, and the following year is a back end first rounder

 

fumbling in college doesnt relate to fumbling in the pros

[PATSSOX 22]

He's too risky for a first round pick. You want your first rounder to be a solid sure thing. I don't like gambling that early in the draft. Rounds 4-5 I can gamble a little but not with my anchors.

 

 

Yeah i dont want to pick him in first round either. Im gun shy on drafting the three B's Ball, Bell and Bernard where you will need to pick them. I will wait to draft them early next year cause i have never had much luck drafting rookie's or i guess young backs early. Bell and Bernard had pretty darn good rookie years but Ball did not get as much action. I drank the Mathews cool-aid couple years ago and that did not work out so well.

[LegendoftheFall 3]

Ball's career in Denver will be made or broken with his ability to pass-block. thats the only risk i see, if he cant improve on that he may become only a situational guy. Protecting Peyton is the main job there. Running the ball is secondary.

 

That being said, fantasy RB's are more about situation and opportunity than talent. Ball has all 3 and so has every chance to be a top 5 RB. I'd put him right behind the top 5 proven RBs and ahead of the next 10-15 toss-up Rbs. mid-Late 1st round is about right.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,584]

Ball's career in Denver will be made or broken with his ability to pass-block. thats the only risk i see, if he cant improve on that he may become only a situational guy. Protecting Peyton is the main job there. Running the ball is secondary.

 

That being said, fantasy RB's are more about situation and opportunity than talent. Ball has all 3 and so has every chance to be a top 5 RB. I'd put him right behind the top 5 proven RBs and ahead of the next 10-15 toss-up Rbs. mid-Late 1st round is about right.

 

cept people are putting ahead of more proven guys with even more upside, like Murray, or consistent Lynch. Id rather take a stud WR/TE than gamble on Ball, but I draft 8 or lower, with every intention of him possibly being there in the 2nd, if not a guy like Murray, Lynch, even Martin should be available

[Baker Boy 1,485]

 

fumbling in college doesnt relate to fumbling in the pros

He had one fumble since week three. I am just saying don't put too muck stock in that fumbling label.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I took him at 11 last night and then paired him with Gio coming back. Talk about drafting on pure potential. I'm a little nervous but excited to see if these guys can hit there ceilings.

[LouisC9999 3]

I took him at 11 last night and then paired him with Gio coming back. Talk about drafting on pure potential. I'm a little nervous but excited to see if these guys can hit there ceilings.

 

I'm drafting at 11 and I've got the same dilemma regarding my 1-2 picks.

 

At your convenience, can you post the rest of your team?

[We Tigers 71]

I think Ball is slightly overpriced as an unknown commodity, but I also like him because his situation seems very clear-cut. Draft him, and then cuff him with CJ Anderson in the 13th round in case he's terrible, and you've accounted for a lot of the risk he brings. Hillman is a 3rd down back, Quizz Rodgers 2.0 at best.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

It's almost a 10 year league now. 12 teams 2 man keeper. I kept Toby and J. Thomas. I hate that I don't have an elite WR but I think Roddy will be a low end WR1. I also feel Thomas helps make up for this. I like my team but don't love it.

 

 

Starters

 

M. Ryan

R. White

T.Y. Hilton

G. Tate

M. Ball

G.Bernard,

T. Gerhart

J. Thomas

Seattle

 

Bench

 

J. Hill

K. Robinson

R. Helu

A. Bradshaw

J. Grimes

K. Benjamin

M. Sanu

J. Boykin

A. Dalton

[DrG 94]

One way or the other all the numbers suggest investing in the Denver O

[Prof Poopcicle 3]

Here is something no one has ever said before: Wisconsin running back Montee Ball just lost a fumble.

 

On his third carry of the day against UTEP, Ball lost a fumble for the first time in his career.

 

How rare is this? Look at these numbers:

 

*655: Career carries before his first lost fumble.

*802: Career touches before his first lost fumble.

 

So ... yeah, rare.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/gameon/post/2012/09/22/montee-ball-fumble-wisconsin-badgers-football/70000908/1#.U_JoImK9KSM

 

Montee Ball fumbled 3 times last year....

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/monteeball/2539341/profile

[FUBARED AGAIN 1]

not me, no way, dude has had fumbling issues, blitz pickup issues, and isnt going to even see any preseason work after the apendectomy. He may take 2-3 games to get warmed up, but if during that time he misses a couple blitzes, puts the ball on the ground, he could work himself into a timeshare

He returned to practice today, he'll be fine

[bobby heenan 60]

He returned to practice today, he'll be fine

Exactly....could care less if he logs a carry in the preseason...if he's able to run and stay in shape that's enough for me....and he's back doing drills..stay in football shape and I'm good with him

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,584]

Exactly....could care less if he logs a carry in the preseason...if he's able to run and stay in shape that's enough for me....and he's back doing drills..stay in football shape and I'm good with him

 

yah cause I have never heard anyone talk about "game shape"

[bobby heenan 60]

yah cause I have never heard anyone talk about "game shape"

My version of game shape probably differs from others ideas...if u don't have a foot or leg/knee issue that prevents you from running on it and working drills....I think you can stay in game shape....I don't need u taking 5 carries on a Saturday night in august to believe you are in it

[Djgb13 2,338]

Ended up snagging ball in the 3rd as a rb2. Pretty happy about it

[bobby heenan 60]

Ended up snagging ball in the 3rd as a rb2. Pretty happy about it

Is that what it's coming down to now? Ball in the 3rd round? It's an appendectomy...he's back at practice and doing drills....I guess to some people this like him having a reoccurring knee/foot issue that has recently flared up

 

Or maybe it's still the fumbling pass blocking issues that scared so many off...unreal

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Agree with UCT and rowdystylz....

 

Pick 6 in a .5 ppr league...I will take ball at 6....if lacy is still on the board I'll have a tough choice....

 

Willing to take the risk on ball over mega or dt because I think I can still get a potential top 5 wideout in the 2nd.....ball has top 3-5 potential at rb....

 

80 percent of Denvers runs last year were with 6 or less guys in the box....he can catch the ball....he's a guy that should trip into the end one 10 times just on opportunity....if things were to fall in place it could

Be 15 times

I think this is crazy. You may be right, but you would pass on a guaranteed stud for Ball? Doesn't make sense.

[Djgb13 2,338]

Is that what it's coming down to now? Ball in the 3rd round? It's an appendectomy...he's back at practice and doing drills....I guess to some people this like him having a reoccurring knee/foot issue that has recently flared up

Or maybe it's still the fumbling pass blocking issues that scared so many off...unreal

Got forte in first, Marshall in second, and it was between ball or Stacy. Chose ball. Glad he fell to me then

[bobby heenan 60]

Got forte in first, Marshall in second, and it was between ball or Stacy. Chose ball. Glad he fell to me then

Ya I mean good for you...just suprised people are letting him go that far....I'm sure there were some backs taken in the 2nd who have just as many question marks without the supreme offensive support

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Got forte in first, Marshall in second, and it was between ball or Stacy. Chose ball. Glad he fell to me then

 

That is crazy to me. I hope that's a money league for you.

 

I spent an 11th on the guy and I didn't think I over paid. The guy behind me would've grabbed him if I didn't.

[Djgb13 2,338]

$200 buy in league so yes it is lol. What's crazy is the guy we invited in this year won his money league last year with his same "strategy" which included taking Tom Brady in the first, Welker in the second, Ridley in the third, Gronkowski in the fourth, Vereen in the 5th and patriots defense later. Have another guy who has 3 rbs on his roster with one of his starters being Carlos Hyde lol. That guy was following the zero RB strategy but still I'd want a starter. So my three main rbs are forte, ball, and Ellington. Was excited to have ball fall to me in the third. Love him as a RB2 with potential to be a rb1. Just don't like chancing on a first round pick

[Ray_T 591]

$200 buy in league so yes it is lol. What's crazy is the guy we invited in this year won his money league last year with his same "strategy" which included taking Tom Brady in the first, Welker in the second, Ridley in the third, Gronkowski in the fourth, Vereen in the 5th and patriots defense later. Have another guy who has 3 rbs on his roster with one of his starters being Carlos Hyde lol. That guy was following the zero RB strategy but still I'd want a starter. So my three main rbs are forte, ball, and Ellington. Was excited to have ball fall to me in the third. Love him as a RB2 with potential to be a rb1. Just don't like chancing on a first round pick

I'm not sure Hyde is actually that terrible a pick. Gore is 31 years old. numbers started to decline last year a bit. Most RB's have the wheels fall off around 30 or 31, so Gore is very close to his expiry date.

 

earlier in his career he was also quite injury prone. Not a good combiniation for a guy who is now older.

 

I'm not saying Gore is done. I'm just saying the chances of the end coming sometime this Calendar year are pretty decent. Whether that happens by injury or by decline in production is up for debate.

 

I'd like to see Gore make it through one more year, but I'm having a hard time believing it will happen.

[Maroon Bells 18]

I keep hearing about "gambling" on Ball. In my opinion, he's one of the safer picks in the draft. A monkey could start in that offense and give you good production. And I'm not just talking about Manning, etc. That offensive line is damn good, too. I really like him at his ADP.