Jermichael Finley

[browns16-0 30]

Ok. Count as one of the many people who have believed the hype on Jermichael Finley before and have been badly burned. I've sworn I would never draft him again. But, I might be getting fooled again this season. Everything I've read coming out of training camp and pre-season has been positive. This is his best off-season, he's really focused, he's put up solid numbers in his last pre-season game, yada yada yada.

 

The thing is that if anyone was ever going to play at a high level to get paid in his contract year, it'd be Finley. The guy is all about money and looking to get paid. His adp is right around the 10th round and at that point in the draft he has as much upside as anyone. Plus there's still the fact that he has Aaron Rodgers as qb on a team that throws it as much as any team in the nfl.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a believer, but if he's there late and I need a te1 or even a te2 I might just bite the bullet and hope this time turns out differently with Finley.

[crackills 19]

agreed.. this is the year that fat bum will go off.. i am targeting him late.

[We Tigers 71]

At the very least I expect his TD production to normalize a bit. Even including last year's super-low 2 TDs on 61 receptions, his career average is a score every 11.5 catches. Something similar to his 2011 (55/767/8) is within reach, which would probably make him a really nice pick this year. He'd still be decent even with just 5 scores.

 

I'm certainly not going to reach for him, but I have him in the same cloud of 6-7 TEs with Olsen, Cook, Cameron, et al.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Bought him in an auction for $2 bucks yesterday. Starting TE.

 

No Jennings, no driver, a gimpy Jordy and the best QB in the league.

[snatchit 108]

I drafted him early the last 2 years like the DMAC tards... he always looks great in preseason, maybe he puts it together this year..

[Gladiators 1,904]

Bought him in an auction for $2 bucks yesterday. Starting TE.

 

No Jennings, no driver, a gimpy Jordy and the best QB in the league.

If only he could somehow fix those hands. He certainly shows glimpses of being a top TE, but then he'll go and drop 2 passes in a row that hit him right in the worst possible spot.

 

I like the points you bring up though.

[IMMensaMind 459]

Finley is finally exhibiting signs of growing up. I think he's going to put up 1000 yards and 9 scores.

[Sho Nuff 719]

I like him this year...especially at his value right now.

Set the Packer record for receptions by a TE in a season last year...even on those low TD numbers.

Add in gimpy WRs...no Jennings...and I think he is Rodgers' security blanket this year.

As for his drops...look at the rest of the WRs...while the group is good, nearly all of them have had issues with drops.

[murf74 461]

I hate the fat slob. Would never draft him as my starter but if I could get him as a backup I would slightly consider it because of the holes at the WR position they have with gimpy WRs and such Rodgers may have no choice but throw it to him 10 times a game and in that case you could be looking at almost 4 catches a game!

[Gladiators 1,904]

As for his drops...look at the rest of the WRs...while the group is good, nearly all of them have had issues with drops.

Great point, but I think he's gotta break out and make those catches time after time for Rodgers to fully trust him. Jones has made a huge jump in this area...it'd be awesome if Finley can do the same.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Great point, but I think he's gotta break out and make those catches time after time for Rodgers to fully trust him. Jones has made a huge jump in this area...it'd be awesome if Finley can do the same.

 

I agree...definitely some cautious optimism...mostly based on his attitude thus far and the appearance that he has grown up some.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

At his current ADP, why the hell not?

[Sho Nuff 719]

I hate the fat slob. Would never draft him as my starter but if I could get him as a backup I would slightly consider it because of the holes at the WR position they have with gimpy WRs and such Rodgers may have no choice but throw it to him 10 times a game and in that case you could be looking at almost 4 catches a game!

Hate...um...ok.

Since when is he a fat slob though?

Also interesting is the thought on his drops and your hyperbole a bit...10 targets and 4 catches?

He had 61 receptions on 87 targets last year.

 

38 targets the last 6 weeks of the season....and 29 receptions in that time.

Not a bad bit of work.

[mobb_deep 917]

Hate...um...ok.

Since when is he a fat slob though?

Also interesting is the thought on his drops and your hyperbole a bit...10 targets and 4 catches?

He had 61 receptions on 87 targets last year.

 

38 targets the last 6 weeks of the season....and 29 receptions in that time.

Not a bad bit of work.

I tend to agree. The sheer volume of passes thrown his way makes him a huge value. Although Finley drops his fair share of balls, there's plenty of other TE1's who do it just as much. Most notably Jimmy Graham who dropped a league leading 15 balls.

 

Here are the top 5 from 2012 w/ more than 50 receptions. Drop rate being the most important indicator (Witten being the best)

 

1 Jimmy Graham 131 tar 85 rec 15 drp (15 drp rate)

2 Aaron Hernandez 80 tar 51 rec 10 drp (16.39 drp rate)

3 Jermichael Finley 85 tar 61 rex 9 drp (12.86 drp rate)

3 Brandon Pettigrew 95 tar 59 rec 9 drp (13.24 drp rate)

5 Jason Witten 146 tar 110 rec 8 drp (6.78 drp rate)

 

Here's the full list, if anyone is interested... https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/22/signature-stats-drop-rate-tight-ends/

[DrG 94]

Graham played half the year w a bad wrist I look for his numbers to be better

[rumbleready00 3]

Packer Homer here - don't like to give away secrets, but here it goes. Finley will be a top 3 tight end this year. I never liked Finley and still don't, but in Fantasy this year I do. Finley gained 10 lbs in the off season and is quicker than he was last year. The biggest difference I see in Finley is his running after the catch. He typically has fallen down with any contact in the past, but this year I see him going after the extra yard. I too agree he is maturing as they say, but I know it is for the paycheck and he is doing all the right things on the field and in the media. Looks great in camp and looked great in Preseason game 2, I believe it was 4/74 in the first half. Temper that with the fact that both Cobb and Nelson were out of the game.

 

Finley has the ability to get a lot of catches and stretch the field. The most interesting thing I saw in the second preseason game was Finley sitting next to Rodgers on the sideline. They were smiling and Rodgers slapped him multiple times on the leg like they were best buddies. With all this being said, I still do not trust him. But I will probably be drafting him for the first time this year.

 

I say let all the teams take the tier 2 Tight ends, many of them aging and take Finley at the beginning of the 3rd tier. His current ADP is (8.09)

and he is moving up, so I plan to take him in the late 7th of one league and probably early 7th in another league because I know he won't make it back to me.

Finley is still only 26 years old, with 5 years of experience in the league

[Gladiators 1,904]

Packer Homer here - don't like to give away secrets, but here it goes. Finley will be a top 3 tight end this year. I never liked Finley and still don't, but in Fantasy this year I do. Finley gained 10 lbs in the off season and is quicker than he was last year. The biggest difference I see in Finley is his running after the catch. He typically has fallen down with any contact in the past, but this year I see him going after the extra yard. I too agree he is maturing as they say, but I know it is for the paycheck and he is doing all the right things on the field and in the media. Looks great in camp and looked great in Preseason game 2, I believe it was 4/74 in the first half. Temper that with the fact that both Cobb and Nelson were out of the game.

 

Finley has the ability to get a lot of catches and stretch the field. The most interesting thing I saw in the second preseason game was Finley sitting next to Rodgers on the sideline. They were smiling and Rodgers slapped him multiple times on the leg like they were best buddies. With all this being said, I still do not trust him. But I will probably be drafting him for the first time this year.

 

I say let all the teams take the tier 2 Tight ends, many of them aging and take Finley at the beginning of the 3rd tier. His current ADP is (8.09)

and he is moving up, so I plan to take him in the late 7th of one league and probably early 7th in another league because I know he won't make it back to me.

Finley is still only 26 years old, with 5 years of experience in the league

 

Good info here

 

Unfortunately for me, I live in Packer country. The other homers won't let him go past round 5.

[murf74 461]

Hate...um...ok.

Since when is he a fat slob though?

Also interesting is the thought on his drops and your hyperbole a bit...10 targets and 4 catches?

He had 61 receptions on 87 targets last year.

 

38 targets the last 6 weeks of the season....and 29 receptions in that time.

Not a bad bit of work.

Why can't I exaggerate without you getting all googly calculator on me?

[Kent 228]

He isn't very good at football. This always keeps me from drafting him.

[gotoneros 1]

All in on Finley this year. Top 3. Mark it down.

[murf74 461]

Well I got him as a starter in both my leagues so I lied. The fat slob better do good.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

FOCK YOU! FOCK YOU! FOCK YOU!

 

How dare you even make me consider drafting that waste product again?

 

I had Rodgers the last 2 seasons and figured I could get some double up with Finley. Rodgers does well and Finley puts up disappointing numbers week in and week out. I felt so good last year when I dropped him and traded for someone else.

 

He and Ryan Mathews are on my do not draft list forever

[Stifler 2]

Against my better judgement, I drafted him. However, I took Cameron two rounds later after realizing that I just entrusted Finley to actually score at my TE position. Talk about quick buyers remorse. I hope I grabbed two gems but I am not holding my breath.

[WR Guru 31]

All the raves about his camp are nice, but players don't normally break out in their 6th year. By then, you've pretty much seen what they are. He's a 700 yard, 5 TD guy. Inconsistent. Too many drops. Surprisingly few TDs for such an athletic tight end in a pass-happy offense.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Sighhh ok ill bite and try to target him this sat. Just happy hes not a 4th rnd hype machine like when this all started.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Thats the reason to target him this year...he is seen by many as a backup TE in FF and there is value.

I missed out on him as a backup or starter...Graham fell far enough for me to think about it and I took him and waited and never really backed up my TE spot.

Figuring one of the other TEs will end up getting dropped soon enough if I need it by the time Graham's bye week comes.

[jmm57 0]

I took Finley #140 overall to be my starter. I hated to count on him, but I though the value was there. Through the first 2 preseason games I started to get excited about him, but he looked like same old Jermichael Friday night.

[browns16-0 30]

I had 2 drafts yesterday and he went in the 7th rd of each, so I'm not sure how much of a great value he is anymore.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Tds by year.

 

1

5

1

8

2

 

What number comes next in this fancy equation?

 

11

[tanatastic 2,061]

I just like that this year is basically Graham and everyone else. Id personnaly put witten and Gonzo as the next 2 but after that, boy anyone could be the 4th best te, its really anyones game.

[murf74 461]

All the raves about his camp are nice, but players don't normally break out in their 6th year. By then, you've pretty much seen what they are. He's a 700 yard, 5 TD guy. Inconsistent. Too many drops. Surprisingly few TDs for such an athletic tight end in a pass-happy offense.

Yeah but he is so undervalued that there is no real risk. Maybe the light went on

[Matt Mueller 146]

Not saying it's happening but take last years stat line and add 5 tds. Where would that have put him?

 

I think it's highly unlikely that Jones hauls in 14 while Finley only hauls in 2.

[Djgb13 2,338]

I drafted him in one league. No one seemed to want to take him and this year since there aren't really any difference between everyone not named graham I have been drafting my TEs no earlier than 10th round. I got Finley in the 11th and Cameron in the 13th. I'll start Finley for the first couple of games until I see how Cameron does and if he gonna be breaking out this year I. Which case Finley will hit the bench