Third Year WR's

[TimHauck 1,875]

Is this still a thing that people talk about?

 

If so, who are this year's potential breakout candidate WR's in their third year? I just drafted Rueben Randle without realizing it was his third year...who else ya got?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I like hiltons consistency to increase this year.

[southcarolina 166]

Brian Quick.

[rallo 132]

i'm a broken record, but rod motherfockin streater

[southcarolina 166]

i'm a broken record, but rod motherfockin streater

A streater is gonna streat!!!

 

 

/plagerized

[rallo 132]

A streater is gonna streat!!!

 

 

/plagerized

 

preach!

[Kopy 496]

Urban Legend fool!!!

[Kent 228]

Now that it's a passing dominated league in college and the pros I think wrs come out better prepared for success early. Plus the nfl rules make it easier on Wrs. I look at year two guys now with the same o coordinator.

[R8RMick 242]

Yeah I think Michael Floyd is fitting the description.

[stonewall 647]

Todays 2nd year WR's are yester-years 3rd year WR's.

[Doggie Styles 2]

Todays 2nd year WR's are yester-years 3rd year WR's.

This

[TimHauck 1,875]

interesting article:

 

http://www.footballdocs.com/three_year_receivers.html

 

Also has an article about second year WR's, noting that "While the statistical mean, median, and mode indicate the third year is optimum, there is a statistically significant portion of two year wide receivers that have had a breakout season entering their second year in the league."

 

For third-year WR's they list the guys with the most upside as being: Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Randle

 

And for second-year WR's they list the guys with the most upside as being: Hopkins, Patterson, Dobson, T. Williams, Stills

[da_mane_man 1]

interesting article:

 

http://www.footballdocs.com/three_year_receivers.html

 

Also has an article about second year WR's, noting that "While the statistical mean, median, and mode indicate the third year is optimum, there is a statistically significant portion of two year wide receivers that have had a breakout season entering their second year in the league."

 

For third-year WR's they list the guys with the most upside as being: Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Randle

 

And for second-year WR's they list the guys with the most upside as being: Hopkins, Patterson, Dobson, T. Williams, Stills

I am pretty heavily invested in Floyd this year. Took him ahead of Roddy, AJ and that group. Same with Patterson.

 

I also really like Hopkins and T. Williams. T Will is in a much better situation, but I don't think Fitz is any worse than Schaub. He'll be able to at least toss the ball in Nuke's general vicinity. lol

 

I am a Giants fan and am not super high on Randle. He seems out of sync with Eli. A lot of Eli's interceptions last year were due to miscommunication with Randle. I saw the same thing this year in preseason. How they could still not be on the same page is beyond me. That being said, he should still have a pretty good year. He's pretty much our only red zone option. And with Beckham not being able to get on the field at all, he should see plenty of targets.

 

For better or worse, I want not part of Wright. I am completely comfortable letting other people take him.

[R8RMick 242]

I am pretty heavily invested in Floyd this year. Took him ahead of Roddy, AJ and that group. Same with Patterson.

 

I also really like Hopkins and T. Williams. T Will is in a much better situation, but I don't think Fitz is any worse than Schaub. He'll be able to at least toss the ball in Nuke's general vicinity. lol

 

I am a Giants fan and am not super high on Randle. He seems out of sync with Eli. A lot of Eli's interceptions last year were due to miscommunication with Randle. I saw the same thing this year in preseason. How they could still not be on the same page is beyond me. That being said, he should still have a pretty good year. He's pretty much our only red zone option. And with Beckham not being able to get on the field at all, he should see plenty of targets.

 

For better or worse, I want not part of Wright. I am completely comfortable letting other people take him.

 

Nice homer analysis on the G men. That's what I value most about this bored. Also, IF I took a Titan at WR it'd be Justin Hunter not Wright.

[cmh6476 774]

This year's candidates;

Drake London

Garrett Wilson

Chris Olave

Jameson Williams

Jahan Dotson

Treylon Burks

Christian Watson

WanDale Robinson

John Metchie

Tyquan Thornton

George Pickens

Alec Pierce

Skyy Moore

 

[Ray_T 602]

ok the third year wr thread is usually done to find WR who were not overly relevant fantasy wise and project a breakout.

Pickens, Wilson and Olave have already broken out.  no need to discuss them.

 

personally I like London's chances of a breakout   Also Wandale Robinson and Christian Watson

Jameson Williams has a shot but hes more of a coin toss given the team he is on

I'd have to do some research on the rest.

 

38 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

This year's candidates;

Drake London

Garrett Wilson

Chris Olave

Jameson Williams

Jahan Dotson

Treylon Burks

Christian Watson

WanDale Robinson

John Metchie

Tyquan Thornton

George Pickens

Alec Pierce

Skyy Moore

 

[cmh6476 774]

30 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok the third year wr thread is usually done to find WR who were not overly relevant fantasy wise and project a breakout.

Pickens, Wilson and Olave have already broken out.  no need to discuss them.

 

personally I like London's chances of a breakout   Also Wandale Robinson and Christian Watson

Jameson Williams has a shot but hes more of a coin toss given the team he is on

I'd have to do some research on the rest.

 

 

it definitely seems like it isn't taking at least 2 or 3 guys each year to be productive at the nfl level prior to year 3, when before it was only guys like Randy Moss who did every so often.  Maybe college offensives are becoming more complex and more like the NFL?  Still, it would stand to reason that a couple of the guys on that list exceed expectations this year.  I can't see it being Skyy Moore cause he seems to suck and is now stuck behind Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice.

[Ray_T 602]

30 minutes ago, cmh6476 said:

it definitely seems like it isn't taking at least 2 or 3 guys each year to be productive at the nfl level prior to year 3, when before it was only guys like Randy Moss who did every so often.  Maybe college offensives are becoming more complex and more like the NFL?  Still, it would stand to reason that a couple of the guys on that list exceed expectations this year.  I can't see it being Skyy Moore cause he seems to suck and is now stuck behind Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice.

there are still a few players who break out in their second or third years.

though most of them are drafted in the 2nd round or later.

majority of the first round picks are now breaking out in year 1 or 2 as they are far closer to being a finished product than they used to be.

[weepaws 2,511]

Watson just needs to stay healthy. 

[polecatt 405]

4 hours ago, cmh6476 said:

This year's candidates;

Drake London

Garrett Wilson

Chris Olave

Jameson Williams

Jahan Dotson

Treylon Burks

Christian Watson

WanDale Robinson

John Metchie

Tyquan Thornton

George Pickens

Alec Pierce

Skyy Moore

 

The biggest ? on that list to me, Treylon Burks...

The Titans have never been an ideal place for WRs for various reasons.

They've tried to draft top not WRs but for whatever reason they've not panned out.

Kenny Britt, Corey Davis, both went to Nashville with high expectations, and both fizzled out as disappointments.

The clock is ticking on Treylon Burks to avoid that list

[Super Cubs 133]

Nico Collins just had his 3rd year breakout, but I curious how much of it was him and how much was Stroud?  

[weepaws 2,511]

Yes Stroud made life easier for Collins, I also think Collins being healthy helped.  This next season Collins value will be higher than it should be with the addition of both Diggs, And Mixon.  Mixon is very good in the passing game.  All three of the Texans WRs will have a tough time matching their ADP.  

[JagFan 100]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yes Stroud made life easier for Collins, I also think Collins being healthy helped.  This next season Collins value will be higher than it should be with the addition of both Diggs, And Mixon.  Mixon is very good in the passing game.  All three of the Texans WRs will have a tough time matching their ADP.  

Stroud does a good job distributing the ball around, so I give Diggs 4 games before he starts crying.  That said, this team will put up a lot of points and that makes Stroud and Mixon the ones you want for fantasy.  Totally agree with weepaws here.

[Ray_T 602]

On 4/28/2024 at 6:16 AM, Super Cubs said:

Nico Collins just had his 3rd year breakout, but I curious how much of it was him and how much was Stroud?  

most talented guys who breakout late its because of the quality of the QB.   I picked Nico in almost all of my leagues on the assumption Stroud was gonna be far better than the previous QB.   I was well rewarded for that assumption.   it also helped that he was showing signs of breaking out late the year prior.

[Ray_T 602]

Just now, Ray_T said:

most talented guys who breakout late its because of the quality of the QB.   I picked Nico in almost all of my leagues on the assumption Stroud was gonna be far better than the previous QB.   I was well rewarded for that assumption.   it also helped that he was showing signs of breaking out late the year prior.

the same could be said about a number of the pass catchers Cousins will be now throwing to.   lots of potential there.

[Super Cubs 133]

18 hours ago, Ray_T said:

most talented guys who breakout late its because of the quality of the QB.   I picked Nico in almost all of my leagues on the assumption Stroud was gonna be far better than the previous QB.   I was well rewarded for that assumption.   it also helped that he was showing signs of breaking out late the year prior.

are you sure you don't have Nico mixed up with someone else?

[Ray_T 602]

On 4/28/2024 at 6:16 AM, Super Cubs said:

Nico Collins just had his 3rd year breakout, but I curious how much of it was him and how much was Stroud?  

I think the chance of a WR having an early breakout go down substantially when they have a crappy QB.      so if you ask if Stroud had something to do with his breakout, I'd say for sure he did.   but Nico was showing signs of a breakout late the season before and I already had him marked on my late round draft list.   Picked him up in my auction for 2 dollars.   Best bargain of the draft.

[Ray_T 602]

To clarify further, I look at whether the WR shows signs, and then I look to see if anything in the offense has changed.   in Collins case I knew he had a better QB than he had the year prior.  that combined with him showing at least moderate improvement from year 1 to year 2. (same production in fewer games played)  certainly helped.

he was also starting to pass the eye test.    it never showed in the stats partly because of poor QB play.    this is one of those where it helps if you actually watch the game.  tough to blame a WR when he gets wide open and the QB cant hit him with a throw.

[RareN64Dream 9]

I think, Jameson Williams, Lions WR; will surprise a lot of people this year. I could also see the Chargers or Vikings trying to acquire Treylon Burks from Titans.

[weepaws 2,511]

48 minutes ago, RareN64Dream said:

I think, Jameson Williams, Lions WR; will surprise a lot of people this year. I could also see the Chargers or Vikings trying to acquire Treylon Burks from Titans.

He has a great ADP, I’m targeting him has a wr5, but getting him in mocks as a wr6.  This could be the season he proves worthy of playing in the nfl.  So much hype , so little production.  

[WhiteWonder 2,208]

a lot of the top receivers are breaking out right away or more so by year 2 these days.  I guess i'll add Pickens into the "already broken out" category. 

Of the ones who could still prove the old year 3 rule, Drake London would be #1... with a new scheme and a legit QB.

Jameson Williams intrigues me the most. Have to remember he basically had a red shirt 1st season. This is really year 2 for him and 2023 (stupidly) he missed the first few games for gambling. Biggest issues facing him are pecking order (Amon Ra, La Porta, Gibbs) and proving he can do a bit more than be a deep threat. In his favor? The fact that he really shouldn't have much competition for the #2 spot. If he is not their #2 WR this year, he's likely a bust.

Christian Watson would be next up on my list.

[weepaws 2,511]

Watson just needs to stay healthy, doubt that will be the case, I’m targeting Reed who has a little bit better ADP at this time to put produce the often injured Watson.  

Thanks. 

[WhiteWonder 2,208]

28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Watson just needs to stay healthy, doubt that will be the case, I’m targeting Reed who has a little bit better ADP at this time to put produce the often injured Watson.  

Thanks. 

 

as you should.

this topic, however, was about 3rd year receivers.

hth

[Ray_T 602]

54 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

a lot of the top receivers are breaking out right away or more so by year 2 these days.  I guess i'll add Pickens into the "already broken out" category. 

Of the ones who could still prove the old year 3 rule, Drake London would be #1... with a new scheme and a legit QB.

Jameson Williams intrigues me the most. Have to remember he basically had a red shirt 1st season. This is really year 2 for him and 2023 (stupidly) he missed the first few games for gambling. Biggest issues facing him are pecking order (Amon Ra, La Porta, Gibbs) and proving he can do a bit more than be a deep threat. In his favor? The fact that he really shouldn't have much competition for the #2 spot. If he is not their #2 WR this year, he's likely a bust.

Christian Watson would be next up on my list.

good post.  agree with nearly all of this.

I'm not certain about jameson williams.   hes boom or bust for me.    If hes gonna break out I think it likely needs to happen this year.    I loved his talent at the time he was drafted, but due to his size, I was concerned about how he'd deal with the Jam at the line.  to some extent I'm still concerned about it.   I have not seen enough of him to say I'm satisfied with this.   and if he doesnt make it, this is likely the reason why (this or him doing something else stupid to keep himself off the field)

but provided hes fully recovered from his ACL surgery, I dont have a whole lot of other concerns.   so even with the concerns noted above, I dont mind picking him up late in the draft if hes still on the board.

[weepaws 2,511]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

as you should.

this topic, however, was about 3rd year receivers.

hth

I know, I was throwing an extra one just for you.  HTH. 

Thanks. 

[Super Cubs 133]

On 5/26/2024 at 10:01 AM, Ray_T said:

 but Nico was showing signs of a breakout late the season before 

again are you sure you don't have Nico mixed up with someone else?

[Maximum Overkill 782]

2 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

again are you sure you don't have Nico mixed up with someone else?

Nico's route to a breakout was a hair late but real. He proved to be an alpha and demanded the ball in big spots. I see no reason why he shouldn't build off of last season. His profile coming out of college is finally matching his Pro production. 

[Maximum Overkill 782]

On 4/27/2024 at 3:49 PM, polecatt said:

Garrett Wilson

Nobody is worried about Wilson. He already broke out. He's had 1,000+ yards the last 2 seasons with stiffs as QBs. 

He's extremely undervalued right now 

[Ray_T 602]

18 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

again are you sure you don't have Nico mixed up with someone else?

nope.  I saw him in some games.   he was getting open.  he flashed plenty.   bad QB made his stats less than they should have been.

[Super Cubs 133]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

nope.  I saw him in some games.   he was getting open.  he flashed plenty.   bad QB made his stats less than they should have been.

As a Texan fan I can honestly say I did not see his 3rd year breakout coming.  Not saying he was going to be  a bust, but a good enough WR not really a breakout candidate. He was often injured in 2022 missing the several games and I never saw anything to make me think he would be more than average at best.  I was curious as to what you saw that I missed.