The WR trend

[idiotec 31]

Having a hard time with it, I've always have gone RB early and it has worked well. Now I find myself with pick #2 and all the "experts" are saying WR. Have people been going with this trend, and if so do you regret it based on the level of RB's you ended up with?

[TennisMenace 156]

I could not pass on Odell if I were picking number two. I don't care who the running back is- Gurley, DJ, AP, it doesn't matter.

[vash1012 19]

Yes, people have definitely been going with that trend. The top 3 receivers are absolutely safer bets than the top 3 Rbs. David Johnson has really good backups who were the starters before they got injured. Its not going to take much for him to end up in a true time share. Gurley is a beast, but he plays for LA. New QB. Below Average WRs. Great Defense. He could be in for some rough games. AP is 30. Lamar Miller is in a new system with a new QB. Lots of question marks. Antonio Brown is fool proof barring injury to him or Big Ben. ODB is fool proof barring the same things. Julio, same deal. I can understand picking a RB over ARob or Dez Bryant...but not the top 3 WR.

[GobbleDog 816]

Everyone's draft is over by now and nobody cares. So I'll answer.

 

In ppr leagues, Wr's are the most consistent position by far (where they drafted vs where they finish among WRs). Out of the top 5 ranked Rb's going into last year, only 1 (A Peterson) finished in the top 29 among Rbs. Out of the top 5 QB's last year, only 1 (D Brees) finished in the top 10. Wr's were much more correlated, particularly among the top picks (Brown, Jones, Beckham).

 

Injuries are obviously the biggest reason RB's don't correlate. I think last year's QB's were flukes, but regardless, you're compelled to take a WR early.

[Gladiators 1,904]

Don't regret it yet. Ask me in 5 or 6 weeks. The days of having a top 5 RB year after year (no brainier so to speak) appear to be over. So I'd prefer to load up on WR's early and hope to hit on 2 of 5 mid-round RB's.

[Kent 228]

Having a hard time with it, I've always have gone RB early and it has worked well. Now I find myself with pick #2 and all the "experts" are saying WR. Have people been going with this trend, and if so do you regret it based on the level of RB's you ended up with?

I took D Johnson number 1 overall in my main big money league. Nobody in the room gave me a hard time. Most of my league bought into the experts hype. Build your team your way. The experts aren't experts. They'd tell you that too.

[GobbleDog 816]

I miss the good old days when a top 3 pick could draft a Marshall Faulk or LT type and pretty much dominate the season.

[GobbleDog 816]

I took D Johnson number 1 overall

 

Nobody can call that a bad pick.

 

But statistically, it's a riskier pick. I hope you hit paydirt!

[Kent 228]

I miss the good old days when a top 3 pick could draft a Marshall Faulk or LT type and pretty much dominate the season.

I miss Marshall Faulk.

 

I didn't want the first pick this year so of course I got it.

[joeshushu 51]

I miss the good old days when a top 3 pick could draft a Marshall Faulk or LT type and pretty much dominate the season.

Don't forget Priest Holmes whom I jumped all over after the Faulk era. I think I won 4 championships in a row in my high money league. Of course now I flounder because old habits are hard to break.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I'm typically a RB guy myself, usually eschew the QB and TE positions until a bit later. I noticed the trend you are talking about first hand in a draft tonight for 12 team PPR, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX league. Drafted from the 10th spot. Was shocked when Lamar Miller fell to 10th overall, heck David Johnson went at 8th because the WR's were so over drafted. Took Keenan Allen on the turn, then was shocked to find Aaron Rodgers waiting at my 3rd pick, so I grabbed him. I went against the grain just went after the best players:

 

Lamar Miller

Keenan Allen

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Forte

Demarco Murray

Jeremy Maclin

Duke Johnson

Marvin Jones

Gary Barnidge

Kirk Cousins

Torrey Smith

Zach Miller

Dwayne Allen

Richard Matthews

 

Thought I got great value for D Allen and R Matthews in particular and have 4 starting RB. We'll see how my anti-zero RB strategy worked out.

[tbk420 3]

I just drafted from the 2 spot in a 12 team Standard league. Went WR for my first 3 picks:

 

QB: Brees, Stafford

 

RB: Hill, Gore, Foster, Ajayi, Ivory

 

WR: Beckham, Cooper, K. Allen, T. Sharpe, Fuller

 

TE: Allen, McDonald

 

D: Denver

 

K: Bailey

 

I'm happy with the strategy. I got 3 WR1 while people were picking a variety of RB with question marks, but I did need to make sure to get 3 RB by the start of Round 8. Around that time, the remaining RB pool seemed to get hit hard again by a second wave, so that was the luckiest/best decision I made.

 

It would obviously be even better in a PPR league.

[Ray_T 591]

Having a hard time with it, I've always have gone RB early and it has worked well. Now I find myself with pick #2 and all the "experts" are saying WR. Have people been going with this trend, and if so do you regret it based on the level of RB's you ended up with?

I went with this last year and it worked reasonably well for me, but in the end it turned out lack of RB Depth killed me in the playoffs as my RB's got hurt just in time for the playoffs.

 

This year, I found that the pendulum has swung that way, but I think it has gone too far. I think it makes sense to grab a WR early, but not 2 or 3. There's enough depth at the position that you dont need to reach for WR's like you have in the past.

 

but the lack of depth is at RB. If you can get a good one early(first 2 or 3 rounds) I think you give yourself an advantage.

 

Keep in mind, it also depends on the rules of your league and whether it is a keeper or not. I do think a top RB is worth paying a high price for. A subpar RB is not.

 

That's all I got.

[Ray_T 591]

I went with this last year and it worked reasonably well for me, but in the end it turned out lack of RB Depth killed me in the playoffs as my RB's got hurt just in time for the playoffs.

 

This year, I found that the pendulum has swung that way, but I think it has gone too far. I think it makes sense to grab a WR early, but not 2 or 3. There's enough depth at the position that you dont need to reach for WR's like you have in the past.

 

but the lack of depth is at RB. If you can get a good one early(first 2 or 3 rounds) I think you give yourself an advantage.

 

Keep in mind, it also depends on the rules of your league and whether it is a keeper or not. I do think a top RB is worth paying a high price for. A subpar RB is not.

 

That's all I got.

keep in mind this is a standard league. Not PPR.

[GornFishin' 57]

I just drafted from the 2 spot in a 12 team Standard league. Went WR for my first 3 picks:

 

QB: Brees, Stafford

 

RB: Hill, Gore, Foster, Ajayi, Ivory

 

WR: Beckham, Cooper, K. Allen, T. Sharpe, Fuller

 

TE: Allen, McDonald

 

D: Denver

 

K: Bailey

 

I'm happy with the strategy. I got 3 WR1 while people were picking a variety of RB with question marks, but I did need to make sure to get 3 RB by the start of Round 8. Around that time, the remaining RB pool seemed to get hit hard again by a second wave, so that was the luckiest/best decision I made.

 

It would obviously be even better in a PPR league.

 

 

Thats a very solid team if your risky RBs stay healthy. Even if they just do "as required" your other guys should take you places.

 

If your RBs implode you might be scratching all year to get points there..

[SUXBNME 1,337]

Having a hard time with it, I've always have gone RB early and it has worked well. Now I find myself with pick #2 and all the "experts" are saying WR. Have people been going with this trend, and if so do you regret it based on the level of RB's you ended up with?

I'm one of those idiots that fell for this on my main draft last Saturday.

I drafted 3 WR in the first 3 rounds, also from the #2 slot like you.

 

Why am I an idiot? Because the league I did this in is not not ppr. First time in 20+ years I've drafted somewhat sober in this league. Never again.

Fwiw,

10 teamer standard scoring, I drafted OBj, A.J green and Dez for my first three rounds. Meh

[Vikes_Fan 8]

I know the experts won't like it, but at #2, I'd be thinking QB, not WR. The drop off between say the best/2nd best QB in the league and the guy you get in the 8/10 range is far greater than the drop off between OBJ/Antonio Brown vs. a 2nd tier WR. Same with RBs. Picking that high, I usually go QB.

 

The other problem is that there is much more movement among WRs/RBs in terms of who excels from one year to the next.

[track 1 16]

I know the experts won't like it, but at #2, I'd be thinking QB, not WR. The drop off between say the best/2nd best QB in the league and the guy you get in the 8/10 range is far greater than the drop off between OBJ/Antonio Brown vs. a 2nd tier WR. Same with RBs. Picking that high, I usually go QB.

 

The other problem is that there is much more movement among WRs/RBs in terms of who excels from one year to the next.

dumb dumb dumb dumb

[polecatt 403]

On my 12 team redraft I went WR strong early and ended up with Lacy and Rawls as my starters at RB and Julio and Marshall at WR.

I'm happy with that. Got Gore and Abdullah for depth. I believe that's decent.

I have gone WR strong before in the past and had mixed success. I seem to do better going RB strong. These WR strong teams seem to get hit hard by injury if you have them at either spot. Or that's my experience.

Some owners in my league though have a lot of success going this way in the draft.

[crackills 19]

i think you need to adjust strategy based on how the draft goes... if there is an early run on WRs, go RB and vice versa.

Another trend i am noticing is that there is less and less significant tiers of QBs, especially with suspension and inj recovery.

Brady, Rogers and Luck are no longer sure fire bets.. and all have question marks. You have a very real shot at getting similar production from qbs drafted 4+ rounds later (Brees, Bortles, Flaco, Cousins, Dalton, etc)

This year, more then any other I can remember you should wait to draft a QB, since you'll be getting similar value much later in the draft.

my 14 team .5ppr draft

 

Round Pick Player Position 1. (1) Antonio Brown WR 2. (28) Eddie Lacy RB 3. (29) LeSean McCoy RB 4. (56) Jeremy Maclin WR 5. (57) DeSean Jackson WR 6. (84) Giovani Bernard RB 7. (85) Danny Woodhead RB 8. (112) Blake Bortles QB 9. (113) Bilal Powell RB 10. (140) Matthew Stafford QB 11. (141) Gary Barnidge TE 12. (168) Ted Ginn Jr. WR 13. (169) Zach Miller TE 14. (196) Mason Crosby K 15. (197) Green Bay

[TD Ryan2 314]

I miss the good old days when a top 3 pick could draft a Marshall Faulk or LT type and pretty much dominate the season.

I still struggle with it too.

RB has changed in both real and fantasy football. There simply are not any more Faulk, Priest, LT type RBs anymore.

 

I recall years back there was an fftoday article about WRs being the most consistent "top 5" repeaters year over year... WRs like Moss, Owens, Holt, Harrison, etc... the premise was the WR were "safer" picks than RBs... you avoided that 1st round "bust" by taking the WRs.

 

Fast forward to today, the NFL has become more of a passing league than ever... WR and TE are scoring more than ever whereas RB are getting injured, in RBBC, or emerging from the uknowns more than ever.

 

I still struggle with the supply/demand part of this... there are simply MORE WRs to be had than RBs... but clearly, hinging your season on top RBs is riskier than ever.

[jimaveli 119]

The spirit of the early pick is getting high floor and high ceiling players with a seemingly narrow range of outcomes, which aren't as easy to find later in the draft. And you'd also like to get a player who you couldn't get later (i.e.: don't draft qbs in the first few rounds).

 

With that, Antonio Brown shouldve been the first pick in most redraft league drafts. Anything else is chasing the upside of a shiny and new toy (like David Johnson, who I like but hey). At this point, AB is an institution until further notice.

[Vikes_Fan 8]

dumb dumb dumb dumb

 

I guess I don't see where you are coming from. The drop off between say having an Aaron Rogers (a real possibility at 2 overall) and say an Andy Dalton is pretty large, as in 5-10 points/game kind of large. The drop off between OBJ at number 2 overall and the next tier of WRs such a Randal Cobb, is not nearly as large.

 

Now to be clear I don't play in a PPR league, and yes I'd alter the strategy in that case, but I've won championships doing that. Draft picks at the top need to be players that are going to consistently put up a significantly higher number of points at their respective competition.

[We Tigers 71]

 

I guess I don't see where you are coming from. The drop off between say having an Aaron Rogers (a real possibility at 2 overall) and say an Andy Dalton is pretty large, as in 5-10 points/game kind of large. The drop off between OBJ at number 2 overall and the next tier of WRs such a Randal Cobb, is not nearly as large.

 

Now to be clear I don't play in a PPR league, and yes I'd alter the strategy in that case, but I've won championships doing that. Draft picks at the top need to be players that are going to consistently put up a significantly higher number of points at their respective competition.

This is great trolling, or way off-base. Can't decide. In a 12-team league, you don't have to start Andy Dalton. You can probably get Stafford or Tyrod Taylor after everyone else in the league already has a starter, or take a shot on Rivers/Eli/Palmer somewhere in the middle. You have far more season-long options at QB because only 12 need to be started in a given week, and there will probably be 8+ in the waiver pool at all times.

 

As discussed above, so-called QB stability has also recently become less and less stable. Rodgers and Luck were definitely not worth their high pick status last year. Brees floats around QB5 or QB6 now instead of being top-2 each year.

 

And even if you truly believe in elite QBs, Rodgers is still gonna be there in the 2nd or 3rd round, unless you play in a really QB-mad league. In either case, there's no point in taking him with your first pick.

[Vikes_Fan 8]

This is great trolling, or way off-base. Can't decide. In a 12-team league, you don't have to start Andy Dalton. You can probably get Stafford or Tyrod Taylor after everyone else in the league already has a starter, or take a shot on Rivers/Eli/Palmer somewhere in the middle. You have far more season-long options at QB because only 12 need to be started in a given week, and there will probably be 8+ in the waiver pool at all times.

 

As discussed above, so-called QB stability has also recently become less and less stable. Rodgers and Luck were definitely not worth their high pick status last year. Brees floats around QB5 or QB6 now instead of being top-2 each year.

 

And even if you truly believe in elite QBs, Rodgers is still gonna be there in the 2nd or 3rd round, unless you play in a really QB-mad league. In either case, there's no point in taking him with your first pick.

No Seriously.. not trolling. I agree that there's stability issues and I was tossing out names without looking at ADP info. Stability is true anywhere, as you can have them with OBJ just as much. In general, you cannot assume injury, or at least I don't with the obvious exception being to the guy that always ends up missing time.

 

The issue, in my opinion is the difference in points between the guy you are passing up at #1 vs the points you'd get by taking someone at his same position at 2. The wider the gap, the more impact to my team by taking the top rated guy at said position. The difference in points/game between Stafford and Rogers is still going to be higher than say OJB/Cobb ( at least in a non-PPR league).

[GobbleDog 816]

clearly, hinging your season on top RBs is riskier than ever.

 

The top RB's don't bring home the bacon like the old days, thus ain't worth the risk. Rounds 3-6 provide more reliable RB's than ever before.

 

Blame it on pass-happy rules, bigger/faster dudes, or combo of whatever.... it's over Johnny.

[DankNuggs 305]

 

The top RB's don't bring home the bacon like the old days, thus ain't worth the risk. Rounds 3-6 provide more reliable RB's than ever before.

 

Blame it on pass-happy rules, bigger/faster dudes, or combo of whatever.... it's over Johnny.

I'm sure the David Johnson owners are quaking in their boots