Dallas Cowboys 2018 & Beyond

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Did any of those teams that went 13-3 with a 1-seed have a new QB and no off-season to assimilate that QB?

Over the last 8 games of the season, did they outscore their opponent by about double?  Did they beat 4 playoff teams in a row... 3 on the road?  Did they average over 30 ppg?  Did they dominate/embarrass/humiliate their opponent in the Super Bowl?

OK. So you're saying that perhaps if circumstances had been different, they may have been dominant. But they weren't. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

5 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Wow. Herbert is top ten already? 

Justin Herbert is 6'6", a cannon arm, makes all the throws, can throw outside the numbers, throws into tight windows, and does everything. 

We know what Dak is.  Dak just vanishes for long stretches during games.  That's ok vs the bad teams.  The good teams give you very limited opportunities.  That makes it really tough to win.  Its hard to get the Browns game out of my head.  The Browns clobbered them and Dak sucked.  Then the Browns let off the gas and Dak piled up garbage time stats.  Most of the games vs playoff teams the past 2 years, Dak has been held under 20.  And now he got hurt and missed almost a full season.  How in the hell do you give that $40 million for 4 years I do not know.  I would let him walk.

With Dak, looking at their schedule, losses are:  WFT, WFT, Saints, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, Vikings.  They are staring at 9 losses.  By the end of the year, Dak will be getting his butt booed and Cowboys fans will be calling into radio shows saying his contract is a disaster.  Dak won't win those games, and the pass rush is in the trash can and they've got problems all over the place. 

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

Justin Herbert is 6'6", a cannon arm, makes all the throws, can throw outside the numbers, throws into tight windows, and does everything. 

We know what Dak is.  Dak just vanishes for long stretches during games.  That's ok vs the bad teams.  The good teams give you very limited opportunities.  That makes it really tough to win.  Its hard to get the Browns game out of my head.  The Browns clobbered them and Dak sucked.  Then the Browns let off the gas and Dak piled up garbage time stats.  Most of the games vs playoff teams the past 2 years, Dak has been held under 20.  And now he got hurt and missed almost a full season.  How in the hell do you give that $40 million for 4 years I do not know.  I would let him walk.

With Dak, looking at their schedule, losses are:  WFT, WFT, Saints, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, Vikings.  They are staring at 9 losses.  By the end of the year, Dak will be getting his butt booed and Cowboys fans will be calling into radio shows saying his contract is a disaster.  Dak won't win those games, and the pass rush is in the trash can and they've got problems all over the place. 

I think you can make a good argument putting tannehill above dak as well. 

[Cruzer 1,995]

10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Geez, that was just an example.    The point was that the cap % isn't more relevant than the makeup of the team.  If you have a handful of guys around 10% (and the QB isn't one of them), then all of a sudden, he's #1 or top 3, that's not a good sign.  If your top few guys around 8% or less and your QB is around 15%, then that's a great sign... if those other players are good.

Right now, KC is about $18.5M over the cap.  They need to cut about $28M from their roster to give them about $10M in draft money and in-season expenses.  That's if they don't re-sign any free agents.  Mahomes is only going to make 13% of the teams cap.  Where's that $28M coming from?  Contract re-negotiations... pushing the expense down the line?  At some point, they'll need to pay the piper.  How's this for a prediction?  The upcoming season, KC will be fine because Mahomes isn't really "cashing in".  His big number hits in 2022.  From 2022-2024, KC will fail to win more than 1 (if any), playoff games in any of those years.  I think KC will still be good because Mahomes is an elite QB.  Teams in those situations without an elite QB will not fair as well.  That won't happen until the later years in their contracts when other teams' QB's pass them and they had to make cuts to hurt their teams... and as the cap goes up.  For the most part, any team that gives their QB a new deal at top money, is pretty much guaranteeing limited, if any, playoff success for the next 2 to 3 seasons.

You have 4 layers of Cap: 

A - QBs

B - Star players

C - Worker bees

D - Pawns

Between re-working Bs and Cs deals and totally erasing D deals - I can always find a way to kill $28m in cap space..... QBs and defense win titles - and if I have my QB signed at 15%, I can make it work. 

[Big Guy 1,412]

Cowboys place franchise tag on Dak Prescott despite imminent signing

https://sports.yahoo.com/cowboys-place-franchise-tag-dak-194455918.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9sLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJ_LnFc6am7zybQ65jmR3vYF6ynCa7s_EQXLL8Jry5YBzpdX1wYGnZt49uQ5qMHW4cw6WPVZ90Ns376YO2veGm0REgR2dRDVc8DHoYUamsZZ1yNLTeDPbEnQwCS3OJFdpTeCvNsDZDC97irZ3AtDQjDwhtv_KUqvilw4RkhGr-rJ

[TimmySmith 2,782]

6 hours ago, Cruzer said:

You have 4 layers of Cap: 

A - QBs

B - Star players

C - Worker bees

D - Pawns

Between re-working Bs and Cs deals and totally erasing D deals - I can always find a way to kill $28m in cap space..... QBs and defense win titles - and if I have my QB signed at 15%, I can make it work. 

Your 15% figure is way low for Prescott this season (roughly 20%)  and because we don't know the cap next year it could be low there also. The Cowboys are definitely gambling that the cap will increase dramatically.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

14 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

1990 Giants went 7-3 against playoff teams. Dominant.  

Great, we're on the same page now.  Nice to see you've come around.

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

11 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

OK. So you're saying that perhaps if circumstances had been different, they may have been dominant. But they weren't. 

I was really only busting his stones because he seemed overly adamant based on only one statistic (1-5 vs playoff teams).

[edjr 6,608]

10 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

Justin Herbert is 6'6", a cannon arm, makes all the throws, can throw outside the numbers, throws into tight windows, and does everything. 

We know what Dak is.  Dak just vanishes for long stretches during games.  That's ok vs the bad teams.  The good teams give you very limited opportunities.  That makes it really tough to win.  Its hard to get the Browns game out of my head.  The Browns clobbered them and Dak sucked.  Then the Browns let off the gas and Dak piled up garbage time stats.  Most of the games vs playoff teams the past 2 years, Dak has been held under 20.  And now he got hurt and missed almost a full season.  How in the hell do you give that $40 million for 4 years I do not know.  I would let him walk.

With Dak, looking at their schedule, losses are:  WFT, WFT, Saints, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, Vikings.  They are staring at 9 losses.  By the end of the year, Dak will be getting his butt booed and Cowboys fans will be calling into radio shows saying his contract is a disaster.  Dak won't win those games, and the pass rush is in the trash can and they've got problems all over the place. 

Whatever happened to Joe Flacco anyway

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

8 hours ago, Cruzer said:

You have 4 layers of Cap: 

A - QBs

B - Star players

C - Worker bees

D - Pawns

Between re-working Bs and Cs deals and totally erasing D deals - I can always find a way to kill $28m in cap space..... QBs and defense win titles - and if I have my QB signed at 15%, I can make it work. 

I agree completely with that sentiment.  The thing is, with Dallas, their defense stinks.  You've just killed the $28M in cap space to fit your QB in... but where's the money coming from to improve the defense?  They also had a really weak OLine this past year.  Where's the money coming from to upgrade that?  Who else is getting cut to help those positions?

Honestly, I'm not saying that paying Dak is what's going to keep this team from contending... exactly.  I just think that signing him isn't going to help/fix anything.  They've done a poor job of allocating funds.  They're paying too many people too much money... sure, Dak is one of them, but he's certainly not a big problem.  I think Dallas should've tagged then traded him and started a rebuild.  They won't win anything in the next 3 years with they way that team sits.  If they win the division once, I'd say that would be a big accomplishment.

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

Whatever happened to Joe Flacco anyway

Flacco was NEVER anything better than a mediocre QB his entire career.  For some reason, people built him up to be bigger than what he was.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

Whatever happened to Joe Flacco anyway

Coaches would only allow Flacco to throw to one side of the field because he sucked at reading defenses.  If that side was not open, he was supposed to throw it away.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

Whatever happened to Joe Flacco anyway

Born, had a career in the NFL, went to the playoffs 6 times and won at least 1 game each time, won a SB.  

[edjr 6,608]

11 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Born, had a career in the NFL, went to the playoffs 6 times and won at least 1 game each time, won a SB.  

So a better career than Eli.  He should make the HOF

[Hardcore troubadour 15,506]

3 minutes ago, edjr said:

So a better career than Eli.  He should make the HOF

It still hurts. Awwww.  Be better, not  bitter. 

[edjr 6,608]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It still hurts. 

I bet it does. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

9 minutes ago, edjr said:

So a better career than Eli.  He should make the HOF

Eli only had wins in 2 playoff seasons.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,506]

5 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Eli only had wins in 2 superbowls. And they were epic  

 

[Big Guy 1,412]

Dak's contract is actually very cap friendly.

This year is 22.2 million and next year is 33.2 million.

While the final 2 years are both in the 40 million range the contract includes a conversion clause were the Cowboys can turn any portion of Prescott's base salary into a signing bonus to lighten the cap hit. That coupled with the cap rising means our cap is actually fine. Go figure.

[Cruzer 1,995]

4 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

5Your 15% figure is way low for Prescott this season (roughly 20%)  and because we don't know the cap next year it could be low there also. The Cowboys are definitely gambling that the cap will increase dramatically.  

Actually no, it's actually even lower than 15.

The 2021 Cap is $182.5m

Bcoz Dallas was able to spread Dak's signing bonus out, his actual Cap hit this year will only be $22.2m........ That's at 12%. 

[Cruzer 1,995]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree completely with that sentiment.  The thing is, with Dallas, their defense stinks.  You've just killed the $28M in cap space to fit your QB in... but where's the money coming from to improve the defense?  They also had a really weak OLine this past year.  Where's the money coming from to upgrade that?  Who else is getting cut to help those positions?

Honestly, I'm not saying that paying Dak is what's going to keep this team from contending... exactly.  I just think that signing him isn't going to help/fix anything.  They've done a poor job of allocating funds.  They're paying too many people too much money... sure, Dak is one of them, but he's certainly not a big problem.  I think Dallas should've tagged then traded him and started a rebuild.  They won't win anything in the next 3 years with they way that team sits.  If they win the division once, I'd say that would be a big accomplishment.

KC also has an ace in the hole - Mahomes's contract. Bcoz it's so big, bcoz it's so long - they will be redoing it to move money for the next 10 years. Dallas is famous for doing it with big deals, as are most teams. KC will find the money with little worries. 

As far as us.. Misallocating funds and bad overinflated contracts are nothing new here - they're Jerry's calling card. To be honest, he could have $100m to spend on a defense and he'd still fock it up....... Dak's deal freed up a ton of money. Look for them to rework Tyron and Zack's deal (like they seem to do every year) and maybe even Tank's to free up more money. By the end of the day Dallas expects to have about $30m to play with. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

2 minutes ago, Cruzer said:

Actually no, it's actually even lower than 15.

The 2021 Cap is $182.5m

Bcoz Dallas was able to spread Dak's signing bonus out, his actual Cap hit this year will only be $22.2m........ That's a 12%. 

From what I've read, the deal is structured so that a re-structure after 2022 is likely.  Just like Mahomes' deal.  He's set to make $60M in a couple years.  No way that's happening.  Dak's cap hit in 2023 is $44M and $47M in 2024.  His base pay in those years are $31M and $29M.  After the 2022 season, they'll restructure and give him $50M of that in guarantees and add a few more years to spread out the bonus.

[Cruzer 1,995]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

From what I've read, the deal is structured so that a re-structure after 2022 is likely.  Just like Mahomes' deal.  He's set to make $60M in a couple years.  No way that's happening.  Dak's cap hit in 2023 is $44M and $47M in 2024.  His base pay in those years are $31M and $29M.  After the 2022 season, they'll restructure and give him $50M of that in guarantees and add a few more years to spread out the bonus.

I'm telling you, Jerry routinely restructures contacts all the time. Romo's deal was kicked down the road countless times - they will do the same with Dak's. 

The wildcard is the Cap - we don't have any idea what it will be going forward. Jerry is hedging that it will jump significantly - we will see. 

[edjr 6,608]

8 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Eli only had wins in 2 playoff seasons.  

Sad.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,506]

1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

Eli only had 3 wins against the Patriots. Two of them in the Super Bowl. Joyous  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

18 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

No. But I dont know how to count that towards crowning them a dominant team.  

You are talking about a vet of all vets and the best QB ever.  

Id assume this year they will be even more dominant since they get an offseason....under your criteria of course.

I know I gave you a response to this, but oddly, I was talking to some friends and relatives last night and this very question came up.  My response to them was, "Why would you expect less?"

My argument to them was the following:

The Bucs just won the Super Bowl, in a year where they brought in a new QB, a TE who was out of the league last year, a RB in August, added a WR in November, and lost their starting TE in Week 4.  They still managed to have one the best offenses (top 3), in the NFL against one of the hardest schedules (top 6), in the NFL... despite having no off-season to get in rhythm.  On defense, they started 2 rookies and had their best DT miss the last 11 games of the regular season an their first playoff game.  To top that off, it was only the second year for these guys in that system.  If most guys return, and Godwin was already tagged and Davis already re-signed, and I fully expect Gronk and Barrett to be back... what would even cause you to believe that Tampa wouldn't be a favorite to be the #1 seed then NFC next year when they're probably going to have a somewhat normal training camp?  Outside of injuries, what would you point to as your argument for reasons why Tampa won't have a top 3 offense and defense next year?

PFF ranked Tampa's OLine as being top 5.  All 5 starters are still under contract.  Tampa has one of the best pass catching groups in the NFL and they're all back... well, the assumption is that Gronk will be.  Fournette only averaged 3.8 ypc carry last year and Jones over 5.  Fournette leaving is a huge deal?  Why?  RB's can be replaced.  James White is a FA.  While I'm not a huge fan of Leftwich, he'll be back with the same offense.  What about that offense tells you they'll be worse next year?

They might lose Suh.  That's it.  JPP is under contract, White, Winsfield, Vea, as well.  David just re-signed and I believe Barrett will be too.  Their entire secondary, while can still be improved upon, has no FA's.  Bowles is still here, so the system isn't changing.  What about the defense makes you think they'll be worse next year?

Their only response was "It's hard to do it 2 years in a row".  Now, I'm not going to argue that point because there is validity to do it, but that doesn't mean that the expectation isn't there.  I also stated that KC just did it and prior to him, the last QB to do it was... Tampa's current QB.  So, my question to you is, what do you think are reasons why Tampa won't be even better next year?

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

20 minutes ago, Cruzer said:

I'm telling you, Jerry routinely restructures contacts all the time. Romo's deal was kicked down the road countless times - they will do the same with Dak's. 

The wildcard is the Cap - we don't have any idea what it will be going forward. Jerry is hedging that it will jump significantly - we will see. 

I wasn't debating that, I was just making a statement.  I agree that's most likely what they're going to do.  I just think the results will be the same as was with Romo.... no tangible results.  Dallas needs Jerry to go away.

[Cruzer 1,995]

20 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I wasn't debating that, I was just making a statement.  I agree that's most likely what they're going to do.  I just think the results will be the same as was with Romo.... no tangible results.  Dallas needs Jerry to go away.

25 years of futility going strong here. No reason to think things will change any time soon. 

Everyone will focus on the Dak deal - when really it's the Zeke/Amari/Jaylon deals/aging (expensive) offensive line and no defense talent that are the real culprits. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,552]

1 hour ago, Cruzer said:

25 years of futility going strong here. No reason to think things will change any time soon. 

Everyone will focus on the Dak deal - when really it's the Zeke/Amari/Jaylon deals/aging (expensive) offensive line and no defense talent that are the real culprits. 

Agree completely.  I only think the deal with Dak is bad because they should trade him and go full re-build.  Trade Dak, trade Elliott, trade Cooper... get picks.  They have a top 10 pick.  They could probably get enough picks from those guys that they could get into the top 5 and grab a new QB and have others picks to bolster the OLine and defense.  Pollard seems to be a perfectly capable back who's cheap and they have Lamb on a rookie deal.  Gallup is a legitimate WR in the NFL, sure having him as your #2 may be stretching it, but it's not like he's a dog.  Besides, they could draft someone next year or add a FA.  It's not like they'd be playing for this year.

[Cruzer 1,995]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Agree completely.  I only think the deal with Dak is bad because they should trade him and go full re-build.  Trade Dak, trade Elliott, trade Cooper... get picks.  They have a top 10 pick.  They could probably get enough picks from those guys that they could get into the top 5 and grab a new QB and have others picks to bolster the OLine and defense.  Pollard seems to be a perfectly capable back who's cheap and they have Lamb on a rookie deal.  Gallup is a legitimate WR in the NFL, sure having him as your #2 may be stretching it, but it's not like he's a dog.  Besides, they could draft someone next year or add a FA.  It's not like they'd be playing for this year.

I'd be totally down for this. Unfortunately, it's not gonna happen. Dak and and Coop are commodities, you can find suitors for them. But Zeke? There is no way any team is trading for him - no way a team is taking on that ridiculous contract. Then there's the offensive line - there's over $200m tied up in them. Tack on another $100m in Tank Lawrence, $64m in Jaylon Smith - they'd have to go too if a total rebuild is the plan. 

The other problem is Jerry - he's old AF. He doesn't have the time, or patience, to blow it up and start over. 

[Big Guy 1,412]

Compensatory Picks.... ( Cowboys = 99, 139, 179 and 227 )

 

[Gepetto 1,372]

4 hours ago, Cruzer said:

KC also has an ace in the hole - Mahomes's contract. Bcoz it's so big, bcoz it's so long - they will be redoing it to move money for the next 10 years. Dallas is famous for doing it with big deals, as are most teams. KC will find the money with little worries. 

As far as us.. Misallocating funds and bad overinflated contracts are nothing new here - they're Jerry's calling card. To be honest, he could have $100m to spend on a defense and he'd still fock it up....... Dak's deal freed up a ton of money. Look for them to rework Tyron and Zack's deal (like they seem to do every year) and maybe even Tank's to free up more money. By the end of the day Dallas expects to have about $30m to play with. 

I'm a Cowboys fan, but not living in TX so I don't get to know everything.  Had no idea who tank was, had to google it to figure it out.  Anyway, good analysis.

[Gepetto 1,372]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Agree completely.  I only think the deal with Dak is bad because they should trade him and go full re-build.  Trade Dak, trade Elliott, trade Cooper... get picks.  They have a top 10 pick.  They could probably get enough picks from those guys that they could get into the top 5 and grab a new QB and have others picks to bolster the OLine and defense.  Pollard seems to be a perfectly capable back who's cheap and they have Lamb on a rookie deal.  Gallup is a legitimate WR in the NFL, sure having him as your #2 may be stretching it, but it's not like he's a dog.  Besides, they could draft someone next year or add a FA.  It's not like they'd be playing for this year.

They're not capable of rebuilding again.  This is the rebuild.  Zack Martin isn't going to play forever, Dak is young and they already paid Cooper, Zeke, and Lawrence and Jaylon Smith.  They need a new defensive coach that pushes them and knows what he's doing.

[Cruzer 1,995]

Right on cue, the Cowboys restructuring bonanza is underway. $17m freed up with just 3 moves, look for more to follow. 

Cowboys free cap space by restructuring Veteran contracts (radio.com)

[Hardcore troubadour 15,506]

Just now, Cruzer said:

The Cowboys restructuring bonanza is already underway. $17m freed up with just 3 moves, look for more to follow. 

Cowboys free cap space by restructuring Veteran contracts (radio.com)

What defenders will they be trying for? Shaq? 

[Cruzer 1,995]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

What defenders will they be trying for? Shaq? 

Gosh, we need help everywhere. No names have been floated, but I have to think DT and CB are of top priority. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,506]

2 minutes ago, Cruzer said:

Gosh, we need help everywhere. No names have been floated, but I have to think DT and CB are of top priority. 

They are in win now mode. Don’t see why with a few additions they can’t over achieve like the Bucs did. 

[Cruzer 1,995]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They are in win now mode. Don’t see why with a few additions they can’t over achieve like the Bucs did. 

The one positive thing about this defense are Tank and Gregory at the ends. If they can get to the QB like Tampa's DEs did - that would give us some kind of chance. 

[Big Guy 1,412]

 

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

1 hour ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They are in win now mode. Don’t see why with a few additions they can’t over achieve like the Bucs did. 

Because the cowboys never overachieve. They always underachieve. There's something broken in the culture there.