Is it time to get out of the market?

[lod001 1,237]

2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

You aren’t buying with new money rather exchanging funds.  Right?

right. I deposit into the valic every 2 weeks and it goes right to work.

[edjr 5,564]

57 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Ok, great.  Take out a line of credit against your old house to get the cash you need to buy the new property.  Now you have cash.  Then convert the LOC to a conventional loan.  

That's a great idea, but sadly it's a condo and only worth $250000, (which would get about 200000 cash, still not enough to pay cash for a 450 home  )

[Alias Detective 1,179]

11 minutes ago, edjr said:

That's a great idea, but sadly it's a condo and only worth $250000, (which would get about 200000 cash, still not enough to pay cash for a 450 home  )

Move.

I lived in Fairfield CT. for a few years.  Real estate is effing nuts in NE.

 

i now own 45 acres with a huge loft style barn with 4 stalls and a 4 acre pasture.  The house is mountain stone and cedar with a mountain stone fireplace.  Large deck and basketball 1/2 court concreted.  Custom Amish cabinetry in large kitchen.

same price as a 2,000sq. ft home in a neighborhood in NE.

[lod001 1,237]

Next stop 200 day MAs. If we go below that, look out. Could get a dead cat bounce there. Any big % day up will be sold. This is gonna take time to come back.

Could Buffet get his 50% drop that he said is possible? There is a gem in Buffett’s annual letter, which was released over the weekend, that nobody is talking about. He writes: “Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater.”  That would be nuts.

Looking at the biggest days in the S&P, most come as dead cat bounces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index

S&P:  2008-10-13  1,003.35  +104.14  +11.58%
followed by
S&P:  2008-10-15     907.84   −90.17      −9.04%

FED has no ammo to stop this because the virus is immune to their moves. Lowering rates doesn't get people back to work in China producing stuff for us. Oops, Corporate greed. Should have listened to Trump and brought that back to the USA.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

The reality is that the Dow is still above where it was in September and then in October.  If it gets below those numbers (and we aren't too far away from that), then I will be throwing some more money in at those rates.  The climb back will take time (6 months+?), so people still have to be patient and try to avoid playing the bumps.   

[Alias Detective 1,179]

To all of you who bought Monday, how much money do you have left to buy at an additional 5% discount?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

To all of you who bought Monday, how much money do you have left to buy at an additional 5% discount?

A lot.  I dipped my toes on Monday. I think that there will be more bloodletting and will buy then.  I still think the Dow will get below 25000.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I transferred 20k to my trading account this morning. Will keep it on the sidelines but eventually buy some stocks. 
 

the one thing I hate about drops like this is the following scenario: I bought shares of GE almost a year ago. Last month I was up 25% but it didn’t make sense to sell and suffer short term capital gains tax. If I sell on March 2nd I save a ton on taxes. Well, that sucks. Now I’m up about 5%  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

15 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

A lot.  I dipped my toes on Monday. I think that there will be more bloodletting and will buy then.  I still think the Dow will get below 25000.

A lot

How long have you been keeping a lot of money liquid?  At what type of return?

[Alias Detective 1,179]

I’ve had 20% in cash for 3 freaking years waiting for the market to plummet.  I have lost so much by not being invested that these small dips mean crap compared to the loss by not being invested for the last 3 years.  
 

For those who have cash to buy these dips where are you storing this money?

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

I have had 100% in cash for over a year. I am not buying now, i will wait until everything is under control.

 

I am wrong all the time, but I will throw out 18,000 as the bottom.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Imagine having retired at the beginning of the year and just beginning to live off your  nest egg.  

Sequence of returns risk is real and a focking virus could screw hundreds of thousand of new retirees.

 

 

[edjr 5,564]

can the housing market hurry up and burst please!

[Alias Detective 1,179]

Just now, MTSkiBum said:

I have had 100% in cash for over a year. I am not buying now, i will wait until everything is under control.

 

I am wrong all the time, but I will throw out 18,000 as the bottom.

22,500 is a 30% correction.  That’s reasonable to me.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

33 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

For those who have cash to buy these dips where are you storing this money?

A liquid MM that’s fluctuated between 1.7 and 2.5%
 

i would hope no one is keeping lots of cash in a checking or .10% savings account 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

A liquid MM that’s fluctuated between 1.7 and 2.5%
 

i would hope no one is keeping lots of cash in a checking or .10% savings account 

So you’ve lost a ton too.  

[edjr 5,564]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

A liquid MM that’s fluctuated between 1.7 and 2.5%
 

i would hope no one is keeping lots of cash in a checking or .10% savings account 

My Cap one savings account gets 1.7%

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

33 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

So you’ve lost a ton too.  

Depends how you look at it. I’m constantly moving it from the MM to my trading account for short term trades. So yes while it’s on the sideline it’s only making an average of about 2% but when it’s been invested it’s made as much as 125% I just know I’m not losing sleep Over opportunity costs on money set aside to play with stocks 

If I was someone who had a ton of money parked in a low return, liquid account and just letting it sit completely idle or even worse a fixed annuity then I’d be kicking myself 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

35 minutes ago, edjr said:

My Cap one savings account gets 1.7%

Same. It used to be their money market. They just started calling it a savings recently 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

What I’ve got my eye on right now is AMD. I made a bunch with it last time I owned it and I regretted selling too early as I could have made a ton more. It’s down at least 25% from recent highs due to the corona scare. I tend to agree with Buffett. If you believe in the trajectory of a company, then there’s no reason to sell. So I’m this case, buy the discount. 
 

not pulling the trigger yet but I’m tempted. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

4 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I transferred 20k to my trading account this morning. Will keep it on the sidelines but eventually buy some stocks. 
 

the one thing I hate about drops like this is the following scenario: I bought shares of GE almost a year ago. Last month I was up 25% but it didn’t make sense to sell and suffer short term capital gains tax. If I sell on March 2nd I save a ton on taxes. Well, that sucks. Now I’m up about 5%  

My dad lost a fortune in the market because he focused on taxes and refused to sell anything before a year had passed. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

4 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

A lot

How long have you been keeping a lot of money liquid?  At what type of return?

It is a MM getting 1.7% right now.  A big chunk came back in Q4 as I had a good year at work.  I did not want to put it into the market and was waiting for a bit of correction.  Probably could have done better, but I also have very aggressive portfolios outside of this money (brokerage and 401k), so this is sort of a way to stay diversified while being liquid enough to be able to continue to buy in a correction.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,646]

Down 1k. Now the fun begins. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It is a MM getting 1.7% right now.  A big chunk came back in Q4 as I had a good year at work.  I did not want to put it into the market and was waiting for a bit of correction.  Probably could have done better, but I also have very aggressive portfolios outside of this money (brokerage and 401k), so this is sort of a way to stay diversified while being liquid enough to be able to continue to buy in a correction.

We seem to think alike. Probably why we both suck at the edex

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 hour ago, riversco said:

My dad lost a fortune in the market because he focused on taxes and refused to sell anything before a year had passed. 

Don’t get me wrong, I do plenty of short term trades and pay the higher capital gains tax. But in cases where I buy and the stock goes down it remains flat and I hold it for too long before I start seeing gains, I have a threshold where it no longer makes sense to me to pay those huge short term gains taxes. Basically if I have a stock for 9 months, I might as well hold for one more quarter and pay a lot less tax. 
 

that’s what happened with GE. After I bought it went down. It got back to around even and stayed flat on me for a while before I started seeing the nice gains. And being 10 and 11 months in, it made no sense to sell. 
 

coronavirus killed me there but can’t predict that   

[Alias Detective 1,179]

11 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Don’t get me wrong, I do plenty of short term trades and pay the higher capital gains tax. But in cases where I buy and the stock goes down it remains flat and I hold it for too long before I start seeing gains, I have a threshold where it no longer makes sense to me to pay those huge short term gains taxes. Basically if I have a stock for 9 months, I might as well hold for one more quarter and pay a lot less tax. 
 

that’s what happened with GE. After I bought it went down. It got back to around even and stayed flat on me for a while before I started seeing the nice gains. And being 10 and 11 months in, it made no sense to sell. 
 

coronavirus killed me there but can’t predict that   

What has your average return been since you began trading stocks?  What year did you start?

[lod001 1,237]

6 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Imagine having retired at the beginning of the year and just beginning to live off your  nest egg.  

Sequence of returns risk is real and a focking virus could screw hundreds of thousand of new retirees.

 

 

Freakin jackpot for those people if they have a clue. If you are retired, you should not be 100% in risky stocks.  You should be in solid growth at the most. You really should be in bonds & stocks if you are not actively watching the market. IF you are retired and NOT actively watching, you are a fool. But now you should be ready to pour into tech and small caps after the drain finishes. More often than not, there is a double bottom. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

3 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

What has your average return been since you began trading stocks?  What year did you start?

I started trading in 2005. I was fresh out of college. I’m not sure I could give you an average return without my head exploding... My account started with ING. Which became capital one and was recently sold off to E*TRADE. 
 

I started out with smaller amounts obviously and only recently have bought stocks in 10k chunks. I’ve had years where I have not sold anything but was still making nice paper gains. The past two years were abnormally good. Over those two years AMD made me roughly 275% and if I had held for just three more months.... would have been 450%. DOH. A short term ROKU trade made me 20% in one week last year. I own a pot stock I’m currently losing big on. Thankfully I didn’t invest a ton but it’s down about 70%.  
 

i usually only hold a few stocks at once and the only long term investment I have right now is in Fannie Mae with a cost average of 1.35 per share. Lottery ticket stock although I could go on for hours about the sickening crap the Obama administration pulled with Fannie and Freddie. 
 

not sure if you were asking purely out of curiosity or to point out that between my stock returns and the time the cash has spent in my 2% account I would have been better off doing something else. But I enjoy trading and it’s not like all of my money is being used this way. I need to be able to move that money back and forth at will. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I started trading in 2005. I was fresh out of college. I’m not sure I could give you an average return without my head exploding... My account started with ING. Which became capital one and was recently sold off to E*TRADE. 
 

I started out with smaller amounts obviously and only recently have bought stocks in 10k chunks. I’ve had years where I have not sold anything but was still making nice paper gains. The past two years were abnormally good. Over those two years AMD made me roughly 275% and if I had held for just three more months.... would have been 450%. DOH. A short term ROKU trade made me 20% in one week last year. I own a pot stock I’m currently losing big on. Thankfully I didn’t invest a ton but it’s down about 70%.  
 

i usually only hold a few stocks at once and the only long term investment I have right now is in Fannie Mae with a cost average of 1.35 per share. Lottery ticket stock although I could go on for hours about the sickening crap the Obama administration pulled with Fannie and Freddie. 
 

not sure if you were asking purely out of curiosity or to point out that between my stock returns and the time the cash has spent in my 2% account I would have been better off doing something else. But I enjoy trading and it’s not like all of my money is being used this way. I need to be able to move that money back and forth at will. 

I was just wondering if you outperformed the market and if so if you are confident enough to use your strategy with a meaningful portion of your assets?

[Alias Detective 1,179]

2 hours ago, lod001 said:

Freakin jackpot for those people if they have a clue. If you are retired, you should not be 100% in risky stocks.  You should be in solid growth at the most. You really should be in bonds & stocks if you are not actively watching the market. IF you are retired and NOT actively watching, you are a fool. But now you should be ready to pour into tech and small caps after the drain finishes. More often than not, there is a double bottom. 

Most people, when in the growth phase, use a static return to calculate their retirement income.  I’m glad you point out that ones return in retirement will be significantly lower than during the growth phase.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

What has your average return been since you began trading stocks?  What year did you start?

I started 30 years ago, albeit with smaller amounts. There have been some great years, but the net has been about 11% overall. That has almost all through funds and not through individual stocks. An aggressive portfolio, though. Still aggressive despite market and my age because I plan to work another 5-7 years (at least). 

My wife and I are savers. It is a turtle race as far as I am concerned. Steady is just fine with me.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

We seem to think alike. Probably why we both suck at the edex

I am not in the Edex.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Just now, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

I am not in the Edex.

i mixed up my pats. whoops

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

i mixed up my pats. whoops

I would probably suck, so no big deal.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

11 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Don’t get me wrong, I do plenty of short term trades and pay the higher capital gains tax. But in cases where I buy and the stock goes down it remains flat and I hold it for too long before I start seeing gains, I have a threshold where it no longer makes sense to me to pay those huge short term gains taxes. Basically if I have a stock for 9 months, I might as well hold for one more quarter and pay a lot less tax. 

That's EXACTLY how my dad lost his ass one time.  Actually he had held for 11 months.  I warned him the market was about to crash and he needs to sell everything.  But he insist he might as well hold for 1 more month and get into the lower tax bracket.  By the time the month was up, his stocks were worth a small fraction of what they had been.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

3 hours ago, riversco said:

That's EXACTLY how my dad lost his ass one time.  Actually he had held for 11 months.  I warned him the market was about to crash and he needs to sell everything.  But he insist he might as well hold for 1 more month and get into the lower tax bracket.  By the time the month was up, his stocks were worth a small fraction of what they had been.

im talking about a singular stock at a time. I can't think of a situation where I ever had more than 1 stock lining up for that scenario at once. So im not really in a position to lose my ass even if it magically went to 0. 

also if your father held through that crash, he ended up making money in the long run. 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

im talking about a singular stock at a time. I can't think of a situation where I ever had more than 1 stock lining up for that scenario at once. So im not really in a position to lose my ass even if it magically went to 0. 

also if your father held through that crash, he ended up making money in the long run. 

That’s the problem with individual stocks.  They don’t always end up making money.

I know, I used to own a nice position in Lucent Technologies. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

That’s the problem with individual stocks.  They don’t always end up making money.

I know, I used to own a nice position in Lucent Technologies. 

Correct but he said his father had stocks plural. I would imagine if his father had just held through any market crash, the eventual rebound (which has happened every time) would have resulted in profits assuming all of the companies didn’t fail 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Another drop expected today. I think that I will be hopping onto the SPY bandwagon once it gets to about $275 (which is a notch above their 52 week low).  Not a ton of dough, but a decent amount.  Better to go with a fund than an individual stock at this point because things are still highly volatile.  

[tubby_mcgee 686]

Sell everything folks.  Now before its too late!  Some say the market may NEVER come back.  SELL! SELL! SELL!
Do you really want your 401K and retirement to say 0?

SELL! The virus is coming!!! SELL!! 

Don't wait til its too late!!!!!!