Is it time to get out of the market?

[Cdub100 3,380]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I think my 401k investments have averaged 27% in trumps 3 years. Simply having an aggressive portfolio. 

I finally looked and did the calculation I made 29% gains. TRUMP!!!!

[Cdub100 3,380]

2 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

BGG has been steadily dropping and I have seen target prices in the $4.00 range.  You think it is going to rebound that much?

I'm no stock genius. I can barely read a balance sheet, but I read a lot of articles and this one sold me on BGG.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314259-briggs-stratton-this-5-dividend-stock-is-top-pick-for-2020-rebound

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

I'm no stock genius. I can barely read a balance sheet, but I read a lot of articles and this one sold me on BGG.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314259-briggs-stratton-this-5-dividend-stock-is-top-pick-for-2020-rebound

not that all articles are bad but the main problem is that they are mostly paid. at least you didn't link a motley fool article. they are by far the worst. you'll see a pump piece and then 12 hours later a hit piece for the same stock. its shameless. 

[Cdub100 3,380]

51 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

not that all articles are bad but the main problem is that they are mostly paid. at least you didn't link a motley fool article. they are by far the worst. you'll see a pump piece and then 12 hours later a hit piece for the same stock. its shameless. 

 Okay... 

 

Disclosure: I am/we are long BGG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

 Okay... 

i said mostly paid. i also never believe their "disclosures". entire publications that you can find pinned frequently on yahoo finance are the ones being paid anyway, not the individual writers. 

if the article provides some insight to back up your own DD, then great. I wasn't disregarding your investment as much as I was giving my opinion on articles from esteemed places like seeking alpha, motley fool, marketwatch, etc.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

BW

Babcock & Wilcox

I bought it probably 3 or 4 weeks at at $3.24 a share.  Up to $3.98 a share today, for +23.03% growth.

52 week high is $8.18 so might be worth looking at.  I found it on one of those "what penny stocks to buy today" articles.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,646]

This run is going to go on for a long, long time. what else are you going to do with your money?  MAGA! 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

This run is going to go on for a long, long time. what else are you going to do with your money?  MAGA! 

Asian hookers and heroin!!

[Hardcore troubadour 12,646]

6 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Asian hookers and heroin!!

Let the good times roll! 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

13 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

I found it on one of those "what penny stocks to buy today" articles.

Most likely you should take your profits and bounce. What does the stock chart history look like? Did it have a bit of a run up prior to the article date? That’s a classic pump and dump tactic. Insiders may have already bought, the run up in share price may have already started which makes people reading that article think “oh yeah look, it’s already going up!”  FOMO ensues pushing it up a bit higher before the insiders dump their shares for a profit and mom and pop are left holding the bag. 

[Cdub100 3,380]

14 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

i said mostly paid. i also never believe their "disclosures". entire publications that you can find pinned frequently on yahoo finance are the ones being paid anyway, not the individual writers. 

if the article provides some insight to back up your own DD, then great. I wasn't disregarding your investment as much as I was giving my opinion on articles from esteemed places like seeking alpha, motley fool, marketwatch, etc.

You asked my why I liked the stock. I posted an article that I believed laid out why it's a good stock to buy for my portfolio*. You went on some weird tangent about paid articles.

I'm not sure what you want out of this conversation? Read the article and if you disagree with what it says id be interested in reading your response. 

*The account I buy stock in (not tsp or Roth) is a dividend focused account. I only buy dividend producing stocks in this account and I expect to hold the long term if not forever.

So BGG may not be a good stock for you, but for my investment strategy I think it's a great long term buy and have no issue with short term loss. In fact im fine with the stock going down while I secure my 3-5% portfolio position.

[Strike 3,975]

Not gonna lie.  Was hoping this Iran thing would tank the market.  I got a bunch of money just itching to get invested.  Oh well.  I guess no one takes Iran seriously.

[Cdub100 3,380]

2 minutes ago, Strike said:

Not gonna lie.  Was hoping this Iran thing would tank the market.  I got a bunch of money just itching to get invested.  Oh well.  I guess no one takes Iran seriously.

I know this isn't for everyone, but I invest when the market is high, I invest when the market is low. I put money in every month. You can't time the market.

[Strike 3,975]

Just now, Cdub100 said:

I know this isn't for everyone, but I invest when the market is high, I invest when the market is low. I put money in every month. You can't time the market.

For sure.  If the market doesn't tank it'll just get invested in the near future.  I've just been a little lazy sitting down and figuring out where I want it to go.  But it needs to get invested.  When this Iran thing hit last weekend I was just hoping for an opportunity to get a little "extra" with the market tanking.  I was able to do that in Dec 2018 when the market tanked a bit for no good reason. 

[Cdub100 3,380]

9 minutes ago, Strike said:

For sure.  If the market doesn't tank it'll just get invested in the near future.  I've just been a little lazy sitting down and figuring out where I want it to go.  But it needs to get invested.  When this Iran thing hit last weekend I was just hoping for an opportunity to get a little "extra" with the market tanking.  I was able to do that in Dec 2018 when the market tanked a bit for no good reason. 

It seems to be having a bad week so far.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,646]

If this a bad week while we are on the "brink of war" I can only imagine what a good week will look like once China signs the trade deal. 

[Cdub100 3,380]

1 hour ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

If this a bad week while we are on the "brink of war" I can only imagine what a good week will look like once China signs the trade deal. 

Even during economic explosions the market fluctuates. I expect the bull run to continue for a few more years as Long as Trump is in office.

Especially because I think there are a lot people like strike who are waiting for everything to cool down even if for a little bit before jumping in. The minute things cool off there are people ready to pump money in.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,646]

6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Even during economic explosions the market fluctuates. I expect the bull run to continue for a few more years as Long as Trump is in office.

Especially because I think there are a lot people like strike who are waiting for everything to cool down even if for a little bit before jumping in. The minute things cool off there are people ready to pump money in.

Good call. I hope. 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

You asked my why I liked the stock. I posted an article that I believed laid out why it's a good stock to buy for my portfolio*. You went on some weird tangent about paid articles.

I'm not sure what you want out of this conversation? Read the article and if you disagree with what it says id be interested in reading your response. 

*The account I buy stock in (not tsp or Roth) is a dividend focused account. I only buy dividend producing stocks in this account and I expect to hold the long term if not forever.

So BGG may not be a good stock for you, but for my investment strategy I think it's a great long term buy and have no issue with short term loss. In fact im fine with the stock going down while I secure my 3-5% portfolio position.

I didn’t ask you why you liked the stock at all. You have me confused with mmmbeer I think?

yes I did comment on articles from often paid publications. It was more of a side note than anything against you. Sorry if it came off differently

[Cdub100 3,380]

33 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I didn’t ask you why you liked the stock at all. You have me confused with mmmbeer I think?

yes I did comment on articles from often paid publications. It was more of a side note than anything against you. Sorry if it came off differently

You're right that was Pat's. My bad.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

5 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Most likely you should take your profits and bounce. What does the stock chart history look like? Did it have a bit of a run up prior to the article date? That’s a classic pump and dump tactic. Insiders may have already bought, the run up in share price may have already started which makes people reading that article think “oh yeah look, it’s already going up!”  FOMO ensues pushing it up a bit higher before the insiders dump their shares for a profit and mom and pop are left holding the bag. 

Ya maybe.... I bought it Dec 3rd... the company had been in business since 1867 so I don't think a fly by night.  2016 it was up at $200 a share... I bought it at 3.24 a share... it's 4.45 after a month.

I'm just foking around on Robinhood man..  i had like $50 into it... its at $71 now... +37%

 

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

1 hour ago, mmmmm...beer said:

Ya maybe.... I bought it Dec 3rd... the company had been in business since 1867 so I don't think a fly by night.  2016 it was up at $200 a share... I bought it at 3.24 a share... it's 4.45 after a month.

I'm just foking around on Robinhood man..  i had like $50 into it... its at $71 now... +37%

 

I hear ya. Just saying from experience I’ve been in early on obvious pump and dumps and ive been caught holding the bag. There’s an art to it. I think I remember reading a bunch about how you have to scout out stocks that had small announcements without price movement (changes in management, company to present at some conference etc...) and take a stab at those before the actual pump article comes out. Then you sell within a day or two of the pump. 

[lod001 1,237]

'whew'. bailed out of VCCAX today at close into VCGSX.  

.....Well that didn't work out. Time to get back in.

[tubby_mcgee 686]

On 7/29/2019 at 10:03 AM, WhiteWonder said:

Can't stand when people take this hard line stance or answer... 

Most people are smart enough to realize you can't time the market perfect.... no shiit.... you CAN however use market trends and current due diligence and get out of stocks before a large crash or even as one is beginning. You can minimize losses to your current net gains and park your money in a safe vehicle until the eventual rebound begins (because it always has and always will).... not only will you save yourself money now , but you'll create a great buying opportunity down the road.

It's not about timing the market as much as it is moving your money in a smart manner when needed.

 

How do you know what's "smart" ahead of time?
How do you know when its "needed" ahead of time?

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

24 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

How do you know what's "smart" ahead of time?
How do you know when its "needed" ahead of time?

Yeah, I think the only "smart moving of money" things that I can thing of are:

- rebalancing your diversification periodically to adjust for changes in your portfolio.  For example, if you want to have a mix that is 50% equities, 25% in bonds and 25% in cash (I am making up percentages as I wouldn't do this),but over time because of market changes, you have a mix that is more 60% equities, 20% bonds and 20% cash.  You may want to rebalance your portfolio to get back to 50/25/25 and restart the clock.  

- having a life event that causes you to want to change your approach.  For example, you get to the point where you are close to retirement and you want to change your risk profile to be less risky.  You might move money out of stocks and more into bonds.

There could be more, but I don't think you want to do it based on market changes because timing things is really risky in my opinion.

[peenie 1,690]

On ‎1‎/‎7‎/‎2020 at 12:37 PM, Strike said:

Not gonna lie.  Was hoping this Iran thing would tank the market.  I got a bunch of money just itching to get invested. 

You can send your extra money my way. Invest in me!!  

 

[Strike 3,975]

Sorry, I only invest in chicks with curly hair on one side of their head and straight hair on the other.  That's hot.

[sderk 1,040]

When did this site start attracting prostitutes?

[Strike 3,975]

1 minute ago, sderk said:

When did this site start attracting prostitutes?

The day your Mom joined.

[Cdub100 3,380]

4 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Yeah, I think the only "smart moving of money" things that I can thing of are:

- rebalancing your diversification periodically to adjust for changes in your portfolio.  For example, if you want to have a mix that is 50% equities, 25% in bonds and 25% in cash (I am making up percentages as I wouldn't do this),but over time because of market changes, you have a mix that is more 60% equities, 20% bonds and 20% cash.  You may want to rebalance your portfolio to get back to 50/25/25 and restart the clock.  

- having a life event that causes you to want to change your approach.  For example, you get to the point where you are close to retirement and you want to change your risk profile to be less risky.  You might move money out of stocks and more into bonds.

There could be more, but I don't think you want to do it based on market changes because timing things is really risky in my opinion.

I stand by 95% of people who should invest every month. They should be investing in long term grouth. I think someone on reddit did a perfect timing vs worst time vs investing every month comparison and investing every month came out on top.

[sderk 1,040]

5 minutes ago, Strike said:

The day your Mom joined.

Still bitter how she turned away your money?

[Strike 3,975]

1 minute ago, sderk said:

Still bitter how she turned away your money?

Is that what she told you? 

[sderk 1,040]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

Is that what she told you? 

Yep, you're still bitter....

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

5 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

How do you know what's "smart" ahead of time?
How do you know when its "needed" ahead of time?

I think it’s likely not worth explaining because people take things too literally and default to yelling about “timing the market”.. 

to answer your question though, you’ll never be perfect but a good example of knowing what is “smart” ahead of time would be back when trade tensions with China were at their highest. Common sense would say it was a worthwhile investment idea to buy the big dip in semiconductor and chip stocks because tensions would likely ease and those stocks would rebound. Plus, a lot of those stocks had/have long term potential regardless of trade tensions.... so you would not just have been banking on China. 
 

When I said “when needed” I simply meant when you need to move your money. Maybe you sold some stock for long term capital gains and the stock takes a dip. You see a buying opportunity and you need to jump on it. 
 

it’s all up to your personal investing strategy obviously. Very rarely am I talking with the thought of people’s retirement funds. I’m usually talking about a personal stock trading account and individual companies rather than funds. 

[My Negro! 3]

I think Trump is going to get re-elected.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

5 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Yeah, I think the only "smart moving of money" things that I can thing of are:

- rebalancing your diversification periodically to adjust for changes in your portfolio.  For example, if you want to have a mix that is 50% equities, 25% in bonds and 25% in cash (I am making up percentages as I wouldn't do this),but over time because of market changes, you have a mix that is more 60% equities, 20% bonds and 20% cash.  You may want to rebalance your portfolio to get back to 50/25/25 and restart the clock.  

- having a life event that causes you to want to change your approach.  For example, you get to the point where you are close to retirement and you want to change your risk profile to be less risky.  You might move money out of stocks and more into bonds.

There could be more, but I don't think you want to do it based on market changes because timing things is really risky in my opinion.

I mean.... I agree with all of your reasons for moving money. Naturally as people get older their risk tolerance should go down, etc...

I still think that a lot of us have a bit of play money that we actively invest and that’s what I mean when I say smart moving of money. When to cut your losses, when to grab a buying opportunity, when to sell a loser before the end of the year to offset some capital gains on your taxes etc....

[sderk 1,040]

5 minutes ago, My Negro! said:

I think Trump is going to get re-elected.

If confidence starts to swing away from Trump for any stupid reason, it's time to keep an eye on selling.

At this point, nope. Trump 2020!!

 

 

[Intense Observer 344]

S & P 500 as a football gif

[Cdub100 3,380]

On 1/16/2020 at 11:02 AM, tubby_mcgee said:

 

How do you know what's "smart" ahead of time?
How do you know when its "needed" ahead of time?

For every time he was right there are probably 10 times he was wrong. The problem with his logic is he has to be perfect twice. Perfect when it's time to get out and perfect getting back in. There's no doubt you can exploit opportunities when you see them, but you do them during your normal buying cycle.

He talks about chips and China. Go look at AMD and INTC and tell me how you buy each of those? Sure 20/20 vision helps, but when you don't have that how do you know?

My suggestion is to buy every week/month cost averaging your investment over time. If you like a stock you slowly move into it protecting your money while taking advantage of price movements.

Right now everyone thinks they are a market genius because we've been on a nice long bull run. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Right now everyone thinks they are a market genius because we've been on a nice long bull run. 

Well, except for people who said the bull market was over in late 2018 because they hated Trump.  They don't think they are geniuses right now.  Actually, forget it, they DO still think they geniuses.  Because they are morons.