The "Fantasy Experts" Were Wrong Again

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

Some of the hot takes being thrown out by the so-called FF experts on Twitter, YouTube, podcasts, etc. I heard most of these repeated by multiple "experts."

 

- Chase Edmonds a must draft with McDaniel bringing the SF run scheme and the money they paid him in the off season.

- Allen Robinson is a must draft getting the OBJ role and the best QB he's ever played with.

- Russell Wilson getting an upgrade in WR talent and playing in high scoring games all year. 

- Kyle Pitts 2nd year breakout to the moon. 

- Michael Pittman will be an elite WR with the Matt Ryan QB upgrade

- Travis ETNSZN 

- Josh Jacobs will be a complete bust and in a NE Patriots like timeshare. DND!

 

I'm sure there were more but these were the hot takes I remember most from the FF community in August. Just a reminder that these fantasy experts don't really know any more than any of us. 

[Ray_T 591]

43 minutes ago, AintNoStoppinMeNow said:

Some of the hot takes being thrown out by the so-called FF experts on Twitter, YouTube, podcasts, etc. I heard most of these repeated by multiple "experts."

 

- Chase Edmonds a must draft with McDaniel bringing the SF run scheme and the money they paid him in the off season.

- Allen Robinson is a must draft getting the OBJ role and the best QB he's ever played with.

- Russell Wilson getting an upgrade in WR talent and playing in high scoring games all year. 

- Kyle Pitts 2nd year breakout to the moon. 

- Michael Pittman will be an elite WR with the Matt Ryan QB upgrade

- Travis ETNSZN 

- Josh Jacobs will be a complete bust and in a NE Patriots like timeshare. DND!

 

I'm sure there were more but these were the hot takes I remember most from the FF community in August. Just a reminder that these fantasy experts don't really know any more than any of us. 

well, a lot of people were saying these things.  not just the experts.

I was publicly skeptical on Pitts without a viable NFL QB. I was also publicly skeptical on Etienne based on his injury last year.   and I was loud and vocal about how Jacobs at his ADP was a good buy.

but I was drinking the cool aid like everyone else on Pittman and Robinson like everyone else.   Wasnt sure about Wilson as I felt he could go either direction.  It is my belief that he can still turn it around.  there have at least been good flashes that make me think he needs time to develop chemistry with the offense.

Edmonds in Miami looked ok but I felt there were too many RB's in Miami and figuring out which one to play would be a challenge.  Especially considering he came from the Shanny tree of coaching where RB's are quickly and easily replaced.

so yeah, you found a few cases where they were wrong, but the signs were there on some of those and you also need to look at all the cases where they were right to get a real feel for how valuable their info is.

[AxeElf 787]

Listen to the Elf,

   Trophy on the shelf.

Listen to the others,

   Go crying to your mothers.

[Showboat 145]

So, is the issue that the fantasy experts were wrong or that you listened to the fantasy experts?

[LaChup 154]

Jalen Hurts is on the hot seat. This is a make or break season for the third year QB. 

[Ray_T 591]

43 minutes ago, Showboat said:

So, is the issue that the fantasy experts were wrong or that you listened to the fantasy experts?

good point.

all I am saying is nobody is right 100% of the time despite how some here claim to be.

but it is easy to point at all the expert predictions that were wrong, but if you are gonna do that you also need to look at all the ones that were right too.  Right now we are looking at some supposedly wrong calls which is fine, but we also need to look at the good ones and then figure out how often they are right.

I have always been a believer in not believing 100% in everything people say (even experts)

I do my own research.   and I look for flawed analysis.

as mentioned earlier, on a couple of the wrong predictions, the signs were there, but people were ignoring them.   Previous injury in the case of Akers and Etienne with probably not enough time to properly heal to 100%.   in the case of Etienne people underestimated the recovery time of the other RB on that roster that was injured last year and probably should have gone on the assumption this may be a committee.  Neither of these backs should have been taken early due to that risk but people were all about Etienne.

we could go on.   lots of players changed teams last year.

I actually ran a statistical analysis on the fftoday rankings (along with one or two other published rankings) and found the % correct to be quite high in many cases  but of the cases where they were off, in most cases there was an injury or the player was traded, or had a new QB/coach the error rate was considerably higher.

this seemed to be universal among all the predicting publications or so called 'experts'

so if you want to know where to put in your extra reserch, this says it all.

[LaChup 154]

Shoots.......Matt Ryan has been making it and breaking it for 30 years now.

[Ray_T 591]

2 minutes ago, LaChup said:

Shoots.......Matt Ryan has been making it and breaking it for 30 years now.

historically hes had the occasional bad year followed by another good year.  hes been like a yoyo.   tough pattern to predict

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

I don't have any of these players rostered so this isn't a sour grapes post. Just merely pointing out that even the people who get paid to do this for a living aren't that much different in terms of expertise compared to the members of this board who do this as a hobby and for fun. I don't typically follow the FF experts out there (although I do enjoy listening to the Fantasy Footballers because their show is fun) but I had a crazy work month in August and fell really behind in my normal prep. I scoured through some podcasts and through Twitter to see what I missed and came across most of these takes. I was just thinking about it yesterday and the average fantasy player may have been better auto drafting versus listening to the experts. 

Now some takes that were right that I can recall would be Saquon Barkley being a stud (although he was still going at the top of the second round in most drafts so not exactly a bold call) and Lamar Jackson being a top QB (again he was being drafted right after Allen and Mahomes so not exactly a bold call). I can't recall any major sleepers being touted that weren't already widely known about (Dameon Pierce, Chris Olave and Drake London). I would say one name that most experts got right that has provided a great ROI thus far was Christian Kirk but that's really the only name I can personally think of...

 

[LaChup 154]

Well, I'm just here to tell you that Jonathan Taylor is the clear cut number one. As long as you took my advice, you should be fine.

[Ray_T 591]

31 minutes ago, LaChup said:

Well, I'm just here to tell you that Jonathan Taylor is the clear cut number one. As long as you took my advice, you should be fine.

bold prediction haha.   last years best RB will be best again this year.

now go find me a RB drafted later than round 5 who will finish top 3 in fantasy points and then we'll be talking turkey.

[AxeElf 787]

51 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

now go find me a RB drafted later than round 5 who will finish top 3 in fantasy points and then we'll be talking turkey.

Tevin Coleman is currently the #2 RB in average points per game.

[LaChup 154]

Taysom Hill wasn't even drafted.

[LaChup 154]

Rhamondre Stevenson Round 11.

[Ray_T 591]

17 minutes ago, LaChup said:

Rhamondre Stevenson Round 11.

better.

anyone can sing the praises of the concensus #1 RB in fantasy.  but the picks that win drafts are guys like this picked late who put up big numbers.

[jrokh 569]

So called Fantasy Experts don’t know more about Fantasy Football than the posters here (save Weepaws). Some of them are good writers, that’s how they have those jobs. Their fantasy acumen is secondary…

[nobody 2,043]

I never did understand that Chase Edmonds hype. 

I would've endorsed the Russell Wilson and Allen Robinson takes though.  Not that DangeRuss was getting better receivers, but I figured he'd be in FU mode trying to shove it in Seattle's face.  As for Allen Robinson, I guess he was washed and I just didn't notice since I never watch Bears games.

 

[DocNiner 44]

Yeah I thought that way on some of those said like Robinson and Etienne but I felt Jacobs was.gonna have a good year in spite of the Raiders not picking up his 5th year option. In tribute to AxeElf...

Listen to Doc, the league title's a lock,

Don't listen to Doc, your team's in for a shock.

HaHaHa!!

 

 

[Ray_T 591]

26 minutes ago, nobody said:

I never did understand that Chase Edmonds hype. 

I would've endorsed the Russell Wilson and Allen Robinson takes though.  Not that DangeRuss was getting better receivers, but I figured he'd be in FU mode trying to shove it in Seattle's face.  As for Allen Robinson, I guess he was washed and I just didn't notice since I never watch Bears games.

 

in Robinsons case, hes produced everywhere hes been.  I figured last year may have been a case of bad offense caught up with him.

but I never watched bears games either so I didnt get much in the way of insights into his play.

[nobody 2,043]

The other thing about Robinson is the reports out of camp were steadily saying how awesome he was supposed to be doing.  Odd that they would go out of there way to lie or that it didn't carry over to the regular season.

[Ray_T 591]

11 minutes ago, nobody said:

The other thing about Robinson is the reports out of camp were steadily saying how awesome he was supposed to be doing.  Odd that they would go out of there way to lie or that it didn't carry over to the regular season.

one thing that may be worth considering..... sometimes when a player is on a losing team for too long, they just become a loser.   it happens.

maybe hes played on too many losing teams and this game just became a paycheck to the guy.   no heart left.

[weepaws 2,460]

Once the Rams starting losing their oline, and of course Stafford does have a elbow issue, I posted here how I was moving him way down my rankings.  

 

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

There are no experts in fantasy football.  

[GobbleDog 816]

On 10/14/2022 at 7:02 PM, nobody said:

I never did understand that Chase Edmonds hype.

I didn't get to draft him, but I would have since I totally fell for that hype. And I'm a Dolphin fan.  Just made sense... no competition outside 29 y.o. always-hurt Mostert. The new coach loves to run and Chase was supposedly a catch specialist. 

Dodged a bullet on that one.  

[JagFan 97]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:43 PM, AxeElf said:

Listen to the Elf,

   Trophy on the shelf.

Listen to the others,

   Go crying to your mothers.

Listen to the Elf, you just “_____ed” yourself!

[Brutal Brutus 182]

With the ease that information is now found and amount of fantasy related sites, there is no real difference in knowledge between one avid hobbyists and a "pro." Pros just consolidate the information and form a public opinion.

 

I listen to the footballers podcast because they do a great job of presenting information in an entertaining way, but I don't think they have special opinions or insights that can't be found on other sites or this board. They loved Edmonds and the arguments they made regarding the money, opportunity and usage should be there, and his draft price was low, so I bought in. The same methodology and thinking lead me to Christian Kirk and that's worked out fine so far. They were also about as low as anyone on Barkley this year due to his past two years. I read some other articles that made strong arguments for Barkley's ACL being what lead to his injuries and poor year last year. Those articles made sense so I took him. You win some and lose some, but I don't think there's a person with incredibly special insight, let alone perfect. 

[nobody 2,043]

I think if it was my full-time job to care about FF, I would outperform professionals.  I don't even think most of these guys watch games.

I think what makes them professional is they know how to speak and be on tv.  I'm way too ugly and I don't speak with enough polish.

[easilyscan 559]

Don't remember which site it was, but early last week, one of the 'experts' recommended giving up on (dropping) Mike Gesicki. 6 rec 70 yds 2 TD's

These guys are just like us, human. On the other hand, as nobody stated above, some of them are professional enough in their presentation that they can go on TV/YouTube & make a living at it. I respect that.

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Don't remember which site it was, but early last week, one of the 'experts' recommended giving up on (dropping) Mike Gesicki. 6 rec 70 yds 2 TD's

They obviously hadn't checked with Axe Elf first, for if they had, they would have realized that Mike Gesicki is a GREAT start when Teddy "Captain Dumpoff" Bridgewater is the QB.  Axe Elf started Gesicki himself last week--but then Bridgewater went down early and it didn't pan out for Axe Elf and his disciples.  This week, Bridgewater wasn't supposed to play, so Axe Elf went back to Evan Engram--and then Thompson goes down, Bridgewater back in, and Gesicki is a top TE play again.

So that "expert" wasn't really considering the circumstances.

[lod001 1,237]

On 10/14/2022 at 11:45 PM, Skinny_Bastard said:

There are no experts in fantasy football.  

Especially with the garbage product that is currently on the field. Coaches are mostly go for it on 4th down morons that lose games for their teams.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

I love when the experts say to wait on QB till the 10th round.  I'll put my Josh Allen or Mahomes against their Mariotta's and Tannehill's every week and laugh my ass off.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

I'll put my Josh Allen or Mahomes against their Mariotta's and Tannehill's every week and laugh my ass off.

Well, maybe not THIS week...