Kyler Murray Expectations?

[bjengel 0]

I have Tua on a bye this week and I've had Kyler Murray stashed on IR all season long - he is being activated just in time as I need a QB this week.  Just kind of curious what everybody's expectations are of Murray this week?   Do I roll with him this week, or pick up somebody off the free agent list?   (best of the free agents out there would be Heinicke, Pickett, Love, Mostert or Bryce Young)

Murray definitely has more talent and upside over any of those guys off the free agent list by a mile, but kind of wondering if they will turn Murray loose on his first game back.   Part of what made Murray a good fantasy QB was his rushing ability and I'm wondering if Arizona is going to try and confine him more to the pocket and tell him not to run as much.

[John Fox 5]

I will decide between Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Have Mahomes on bye.

Leaning towards Russell Wilson going against the Bills.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

4 hours ago, bjengel said:

I have Tua on a bye this week and I've had Kyler Murray stashed on IR all season long - he is being activated just in time as I need a QB this week.  Just kind of curious what everybody's expectations are of Murray this week?   Do I roll with him this week, or pick up somebody off the free agent list?   (best of the free agents out there would be Heinicke, Pickett, Love, Mostert or Bryce Young)

Murray definitely has more talent and upside over any of those guys off the free agent list by a mile, but kind of wondering if they will turn Murray loose on his first game back.   Part of what made Murray a good fantasy QB was his rushing ability and I'm wondering if Arizona is going to try and confine him more to the pocket and tell him not to run as much.

I expect to be as bad a qb as before... possibly worse.  Fortunately, reality doesn't matter in fantasy football.  Atlanta is pretty good against the pass, so I'll put Murray at 185 yards passing (maybe a TD), but I'd expect about 50 yards rushing and 1 TD (maybe more)... so, about 18 point.  

I could see a scenario where they'll want him to be reserved with rushing.  If that happens, he may throw for 250 and rush for only 15 or so yards (scrambling), which could mean no TD's at all.

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I expect to be as bad a qb as before... possibly worse.  Fortunately, reality doesn't matter in fantasy football.  Atlanta is pretty good against the pass, so I'll put Murray at 185 yards passing (maybe a TD), but I'd expect about 50 yards rushing and 1 TD (maybe more)... so, about 18 point.  

I could see a scenario where they'll want him to be reserved with rushing.  If that happens, he may throw for 250 and rush for only 15 or so yards (scrambling), which could mean no TD's at all.

hes got a lot of rust to shake off.  

I wouldnt expect much in his first game back.   I could be wrong.   hes talented.   but given the time away  from the game it may be a tall order to expect him to be in mid season form.

[makindollaz 40]

I’m in a similar situation with Tua on bye, but Heineke is the best WW option, so I’m going with Murray and hope for some production.  At least my opponent has a much rougher bye week than I do.

[crackills 19]

the expectation is he still sucks

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

35 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

hes got a lot of rust to shake off.  

I wouldnt expect much in his first game back.   I could be wrong.   hes talented.   but given the time away  from the game it may be a tall order to expect him to be in mid season form.

I don't disagree.  I do think his floor is higher than someone like Watson.  Murray only missed one year, not like Watson who missed two years.  

Overall, Arizona's defense is rather crappy... I mean, look at what the Giants did to them.  So I'm thinking that Atlanta should be able to put points on the board, especially since running is their strength and it's Arizona's biggest weakness.  Because of that, I think that while Arizona will want to be a bit more conservative, they're going to be forced at some point to throw more than they'd prefer.  That's why I think Murray might be able to throw for 250, but I'd be surprised if he went much over that.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't disagree.  I do think his floor is higher than someone like Watson.  Murray only missed one year, not like Watson who missed two years.  

Overall, Arizona's defense is rather crappy... I mean, look at what the Giants did to them.  So I'm thinking that Atlanta should be able to put points on the board, especially since running is their strength and it's Arizona's biggest weakness.  Because of that, I think that while Arizona will want to be a bit more conservative, they're going to be forced at some point to throw more than they'd prefer.  That's why I think Murray might be able to throw for 250, but I'd be surprised if he went much over that.

agreed.  what you get with watson this year should be viewed as pretty close to Kyler's floor.   his ceiling is high but given time off his chances of hitting his ceiling is likely low.

hes a million dollar talent with a 10 cent head.   but the pressure of being an NFL starter has not been weighing on him as hes been rehabbing his injury so this wont likely be a factor for him (not yet anyways)

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

agreed.  what you get with watson this year should be viewed as pretty close to Kyler's floor.   his ceiling is high but given time off his chances of hitting his ceiling is likely low.

hes a million dollar talent with a 10 cent head.   but the pressure of being an NFL starter has not been weighing on him as hes been rehabbing his injury so this wont likely be a factor for him (not yet anyways)

Yeah, I think that's a good gauge.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

I'm starting him this week with Mahomes on bye.  I could have picked up guys like Wilson, Dobbs, Baker, etc.  But my team sucks and I need some upside.  Ugh

[easilyscan 559]

7 hours ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

I'm starting him this week with Mahomes on bye.  I could have picked up guys like Wilson, Dobbs, Baker, etc.  But my team sucks and I need some upside.  Ugh

I had that option as well, but chose Sam Howell. My record of streaming QBs to cover bye weeks is so/so. You're probably good! 

[nobody 2,044]

It doesn't make much sense to me why the Cardinals are playing him at all unless they plan to keep him around.  His contract has a bunch of guarantees for injury.

Scenario 1.  He comes back and plays great, and the Cardinals no longer have a high enough pick to get a franchise QB.

Scenario 2. He plays like crap and you get the top pick, but now his trade value is hurt, but at least his contract is tradable since it doesn't have as many guarantees kicked in.

Scenario 3.  He gets a major injury.  Now you're stuck with him, and when he is healthy, he's hard to trade because his salary is guaranteed,  but he also has an injury label.

If they just sit him, they'll get the top overall pick, and some team will probably give them at least a second and maybe a first for him.

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

It doesn't make much sense to me why the Cardinals are playing him at all unless they plan to keep him around.  His contract has a bunch of guarantees for injury.

Scenario 1.  He comes back and plays great, and the Cardinals no longer have a high enough pick to get a franchise QB.

Scenario 2. He plays like crap and you get the top pick, but now his trade value is hurt, but at least his contract is tradable since it doesn't have as many guarantees kicked in.

Scenario 3.  He gets a major injury.  Now you're stuck with him, and when he is healthy, he's hard to trade because his salary is guaranteed,  but he also has an injury label.

If they just sit him, they'll get the top overall pick, and some team will probably give them at least a second and maybe a first for him.

if they sit him there is the risk he has a tantrum and demands a trade.   normally I wouldnt be all that concerned about this, but if hes demanding a trade the perception is that the team is dealing from a position of weakness.

I'd rather do what I can to keep him happy.

if you plan to keep him, you want him happy anyways.

if you dont plan to keep him you dont want him to be a distraction.   so you do what you can to keep him happy while shopping him around.

 

[unclemercy 51]

On 11/9/2023 at 7:20 AM, Gratefulegg1973 said:

I'm starting him this week with Mahomes on bye.  I could have picked up guys like Wilson, Dobbs, Baker, etc.  But my team sucks and I need some upside.  Ugh

same

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

He’ll generate a couple TDs & good yardage. The Cards offense has been surprisingly decent with Dobbs.

[GobbleDog 816]

Long return is never as great as hoped or as bad as expected.  I figure he'll be his average stat line. Maybe a twinge under to start.

[weepaws 2,460]

On 11/8/2023 at 4:56 AM, bjengel said:

I have Tua on a bye this week and I've had Kyler Murray stashed on IR all season long - he is being activated just in time as I need a QB this week.  Just kind of curious what everybody's expectations are of Murray this week?   Do I roll with him this week, or pick up somebody off the free agent list?   (best of the free agents out there would be Heinicke, Pickett, Love, Mostert or Bryce Young)

Murray definitely has more talent and upside over any of those guys off the free agent list by a mile, but kind of wondering if they will turn Murray loose on his first game back.   Part of what made Murray a good fantasy QB was his rushing ability and I'm wondering if Arizona is going to try and confine him more to the pocket and tell him not to run as much.

From that list, I would go with Murray.  Good luck. 

[weepaws 2,460]

On 11/8/2023 at 8:49 AM, John Fox said:

I will decide between Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Have Mahomes on bye.

Leaning towards Russell Wilson going against the Bills.

Murray.  

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

This is a fantasy football board… so yes he had and will still have some rust to knock off but regardless of his shortcomings as a real nfl QB, he has top 5 fantasy upside on any given week. It’s proven. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

6 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

This is a fantasy football board… so yes he had and will still have some rust to knock off but regardless of his shortcomings as a real nfl QB, he has top 5 fantasy upside on any given week. It’s proven. 

Op was asking about this past week as a bye replacement, not going forward.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

7 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

This is a fantasy football board… so yes he had and will still have some rust to knock off but regardless of his shortcomings as a real nfl QB, he has top 5 fantasy upside on any given week. It’s proven. 

Who will you trade me for this stud?

[gridirongoofs 75]

Is he a decent stash on the roster for the ros? I have Stroud at the moment. 

[weepaws 2,460]

5 hours ago, gridirongoofs said:

Is he a decent stash on the roster for the ros? I have Stroud at the moment. 

I would keep Stroud.  

[gridirongoofs 75]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I would keep Stroud.  

Yeah. I wasn't thinking of dropping Stroud. Perhaps stashing Murray? I know you only like to carry one QB as well. I do too usually and te. However, I picked up McBride two weeks ago when he had a shitty game and glad to have him since Taysom is on bye week this week.