Week 17 All-Out Blitz (2023) ...

[The Football Guru 212]

You know the drill by now. I want to use some of your questions for championship week in my final column of the regular season. Hopefully, I have helped more of you than I have hurt with my answers so far 

Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth. Dynasty questions are also fair game. All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

I will assume that you are OK with your question(s) being featured in the column(s) unless you say otherwise.

Please submit them by 6 pm EST on Wednesday evening.

[treewarden 1]

.5 PPR Flex - Pollard, Collins , or Puka (on bench last week, but still managed to win)?

Lineup: Hurts, JJ, AJ, Aiyuk, JT, Kamara, McBride

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Team #1.  Half PPR. Need a Qb and a Flex. I currently at Qb have Mayfield Vs Saints, available are, Mullen’s Vs Pack, Carr Vs Bucs, Browning Vs KC.   Rb 2 Mixon Vs KC, Conner Vs Eagles.  

Team #2. Full PPR.  Kamara Vs Bucs, Gibbs Vs Cowboys, Ekeler Vs Broncos Rb2.  

R Rice Vs Bengals, B Cooks Vs Lions, Wr2.  Hard to bench Rice, but Cooks has a fantastic matchup.  

And which of those players for my slot.  

Thank you very much, wishing you and yours a Happy New Year.  

[bimmer 7]

1/2 PPR - final week

QB:  Hurts vs Ariz or Fields vs Atl 

RBs: Mixon @ KC, Swift vs Ariz, Chandler vs Gb - need 2

WRs:  Start JJ, Nacua @ NYG or Flowers vs Miami 

TE:  McBride @ Phi or Likely vs Miami

FLEX:  either 1 of the RBs or WRs or TE or London?

Thank you very much, wishing you and yours a Happy New Year!  

[jrokh 569]

Pick 2 of 3 Wr's

1) Amari Cooper vs #1 ranked Jets Pass D

2) Davante Adams @ INDY

3) DJ Moore vs Surprisingly stingy Atlanta Pass D.

TIA and Merry New Year!

[polecatt 403]

Okay, same team you've answered the past two weeks of mine      10 team, PPR, longball bonus, big bonus at 100/300 yds

We're in the championship! Gutted out a tough win last week. I got in the playoffs at 7-7, the two teams I've played, were the two teams that sweep me during the season. I beat them both in the playoffs to get to the championship!  Okay, shameless pat on the back aside

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, both at the NYG   or Chris Olave at TB?  Pick one to start

I'm leaning heavy to P Nakua. Probably recency bias. Him and Cooper tend to flip flop?

I'm tempted to start Olave. He's been red hot lately. I'm just concerned about his 1 catch for 4 yds, worst of his career, performance against TB earlier this season...

What do you think?

Also, this week at QB

Stafford at NYG or CJ Stroud vs Tenn?

 

[easilyscan 559]

Full PPR

Almost a certainty Jaylen Waddle will miss week 17

 

Right now I have Rashid Shaheed plugged in. 3 positives for him.

1: Michael Thomas isn't expected to return Week 17

2: Playing @ Tampa Bay (3rd most points allowed to WR's)

3: He returns punt & kicks (my league rewards points for those yards)

 

Would you consider any of the following 3 a better play ? 

Adam Thielen: @ Jacksonville  *Decent last week 6-94-0 but hasn't scored a TD since week 6*

Curtis Samuel: Home vs the 49ers

Drake London: @ Chicago

Thanks

[MissionCoach 4]

12 team league, 1 ppr, lost the semi finals.  Kamara and DJ Moore combined for a total of 13 points, and Mahomes was very average as he has been most of the season. That being said, onto playing for 3rd place, which still pays out nicely in my big money league.  Thanks in advance for your help.

QB - Do I trust Mahomes one last time, versus a porus Cincy D. Is this the week Mahomes finally puts up top tier QB numbers?

Or do I start Love on the road against a blitzing Vikings Defense. Love put up very good FF numbers last week without Watson and Reed.

TE - Schultz vs Tenn, if CJ Stroud plays, a definite boost.

Or Kraft @ Minny. Kraft has been surprisingly solid, and could be a decent option if Watson and/or Reed are out again.

Defense - Phil vs Arizona.  When I picked up the Philly D last week, figured they were a slam dunk against the Giants and Devito.  Huge disappointment, not sure I trust them even against Arizona,

Or Jax vs  a poor Carolina Offense, nuff said

Or WW candidates Denver vs a reeling SD Offense, Rams @ NYG

Appreciate the expert advice, hope you and yours have a happy and healthy new year!

  

 

 

[Lake209 34]

12 team; full PPR. Was second-best all season & finished that way, thankfully earning a bye. Won playoff & now play the league-best team in the final. I am limping in though…lost Kirk, Tank, & now Waddle & Pacheco seem unlikely, got Aiyuk but a busted-up Purdy....

Unless Pacheco recovers (& who knows about Waddle...), I will have to start 3 of the following 7.  Need the most-likely best (3) scoring options - and amongst all candidates, would appreciate an opinion on 1 who is most likely to ‘boom.’  Against this league-best manager, I'd like to balance certain points against a possible gamble on 1 player who has a good chance to hit big.  

TChandler (good matchup, but Mattison...& qb swap) Marquise Brown (if he plays; great matchup?), DGoedert (mid matchup; but playing well), Jameson Williams (role increasing?), DWicks (if CW or JR out),  MMims (Sutton concussed...if he plays, great matchup, & qb-swap), JDowns (mid-matchup; but Colts have a must win).

Bonus: Waddle...now reported as a might play.  With a 'not serious high ankle' and vs. Baltimore - he is trustworthy?

Edited December 27, 2023 by Lake209
@ qb-swaps & waivers & health updates

[Bills04 46]

Thanks much for the advice last week.  Although, D’Vonta and Jerick being OUT made my decision making easier!  Full-point PPR league.  Similar situation as last week: unsure at QB.  I’m going with CHI Fields at Atlanta – but DJ Moore and C. Kmet are both banged up.  I also have ARI Kyler at Philly – but M. Brown was OUT last week, and M. Wilson did NOTHING as his replacement.  PHI has a beatable secondary..

Unsure at RB: Currently going with ATL B-Rob vs. CHI, CLE J. Ford vs. NYJ, and FLEXing LVR Z. White at Indy.  Like last week, I’m planning to sit Saquon, who is home vs. Rams.  The Rams are tops against RBs..  He got lucky last week and scored a TD on his third RZ carry, after getting a short field on a kick-off return fumble.  I also have D’Vonta, if he gets his personal life figured out!

Think I’m set at WR: Currently going with TB Evans vs. New Orleans, and KC R. Rice vs. Cincy.  Like last week, I’m planning on sitting JAX C. Ridley vs. Carolina.  JAX QB T. Lawrence now also has a shoulder injury.  And, Carolina is very beatable on the ground.  I’m also sitting NE WR D. Douglas at Buffalo.  It is FF finals week, and he has “no ceiling.”

Unsure at TE: Currently going with BAL I. Likely vs. Miami.  Very consistent player.  Doing so means sitting CHI TE C. Kmet vs. ATL, who was having himself a game last week, before injuring his knee.  ATL is bottom-10 vs. TEs. 

[The Football Guru 212]

19 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Full PPR

Almost a certainty Jaylen Waddle will miss week 17

 

Right now I have Rashid Shaheed plugged in. 3 positives for him.

1: Michael Thomas isn't expected to return Week 17

2: Playing @ Tampa Bay (3rd most points allowed to WR's)

3: He returns punt & kicks (my league rewards points for those yards)

 

Would you consider any of the following 3 a better play ? 

Adam Thielen: @ Jacksonville  *Decent last week 6-94-0 but hasn't scored a TD since week 6*

Curtis Samuel: Home vs the 49ers

Drake London: @ Chicago

Thanks

You talked me into it. Seriously. Thielen has a solid matchup, but I don't think last week (against a soft defense) was nearly enough to sway me away from a high-ceiling option like Shaheed, who also gets a big bump in this league because of the return game. I do not see a ton of upside with London and I tend to believe Brissett will lean more on McLaurin than Samuel this week.

[easilyscan 559]

2 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

You talked me into it. Seriously. Thielen has a solid matchup, but I don't think last week (against a soft defense) was nearly enough to sway me away from a high-ceiling option like Shaheed, who also gets a big bump in this league because of the return game. I do not see a ton of upside with London and I tend to believe Brissett will lean more on McLaurin than Samuel this week.

Thank You,

[The Football Guru 212]

11 hours ago, Lake209 said:

12 team; full PPR. Was second-best all season & finished that way, thankfully earning a bye. Won playoff & now play the league-best team in the final. I am limping in though…lost Kirk, Tank, & now Waddle & Pacheco seem unlikely, got Aiyuk but a busted-up Purdy....

Unless Pacheco recovers (& who knows about Waddle...), I will have to start 3 of the following 7.  Need the most-likely best (3) scoring options - and amongst all candidates, would appreciate an opinion on 1 who is most likely to ‘boom.’  Against this league-best manager, I'd like to balance certain points against a possible gamble on 1 player who has a good chance to hit big.  

TChandler (good matchup, but Mattison...& qb swap) Marquise Brown (if he plays; great matchup?), DGoedert (mid matchup; but playing well), Jameson Williams (role increasing?), DWicks (if CW or JR out),  MMims (Sutton concussed...if he plays, great matchup, & qb-swap), JDowns (mid-matchup; but Colts have a must win).

Bonus: Waddle...now reported as a might play.  With a 'not serious high ankle' and vs. Baltimore - he is trustworthy?

I don't think I could play Waddle with what we know right now. "Not a serious high ankle" is still enough of a high ankle to drastically affect performance, which is not something that he needs going against perhaps the best defense in the league.

I will address the first part of your question in the column.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Good luck to everyone battling for a title this week!

Championship Q & A

[weepaws 2,460]

Thank you Guru.  

[bimmer 7]

Thank you Guru!

[The Football Guru 212]

On 12/27/2023 at 2:25 PM, Bills04 said:

Thanks much for the advice last week.  Although, D’Vonta and Jerick being OUT made my decision making easier!  Full-point PPR league.  Similar situation as last week: unsure at QB.  I’m going with CHI Fields at Atlanta – but DJ Moore and C. Kmet are both banged up.  I also have ARI Kyler at Philly – but M. Brown was OUT last week, and M. Wilson did NOTHING as his replacement.  PHI has a beatable secondary..

Unsure at RB: Currently going with ATL B-Rob vs. CHI, CLE J. Ford vs. NYJ, and FLEXing LVR Z. White at Indy.  Like last week, I’m planning to sit Saquon, who is home vs. Rams.  The Rams are tops against RBs..  He got lucky last week and scored a TD on his third RZ carry, after getting a short field on a kick-off return fumble.  I also have D’Vonta, if he gets his personal life figured out!

Think I’m set at WR: Currently going with TB Evans vs. New Orleans, and KC R. Rice vs. Cincy.  Like last week, I’m planning on sitting JAX C. Ridley vs. Carolina.  JAX QB T. Lawrence now also has a shoulder injury.  And, Carolina is very beatable on the ground.  I’m also sitting NE WR D. Douglas at Buffalo.  It is FF finals week, and he has “no ceiling.”

Unsure at TE: Currently going with BAL I. Likely vs. Miami.  Very consistent player.  Doing so means sitting CHI TE C. Kmet vs. ATL, who was having himself a game last week, before injuring his knee.  ATL is bottom-10 vs. TEs. 

I am facing the same dilemma at QB in a dynasty title game. I am leaning Fields for now, but I think I would prefer Murray. However, he has been ill the last two days and probably won't have Hollywood again. So, I'm probably sticking with Fields.

I am still not sure I can sit Barkley, but I think it is more understandable this week. I have my doubts about Kmet playing this week, so I'm on board with Likely. I would not expect much UNLESS Zay Flowers is ruled out. Then I could see Likely getting force-fed a bit more.

[LaChup 154]

Why do people think Hollywood Brown is good?

These are not good stats:

51

101

574

11.3

4

 

[DocNiner 44]

I have 3 DEF/ST on my roster and still kot sure which one is the better start. Appreciate any advice.

MIAMI DEF @ Baltimore

DALLAS DEF@ Cincinnati

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS DEF home against the Raiders

So if you had these 3 which one would you start in your championship game?

[weepaws 2,460]

10 hours ago, LaChup said:

Why do people think Hollywood Brown is good?

These are not good stats:

51

101

574

11.3

4

 

He has been dealing with a injury, plus the lack of a Qb doesn’t help.  He’s not great, I think he’s good at best when healthy.  

[The Football Guru 212]

19 hours ago, DocNiner said:

I have 3 DEF/ST on my roster and still kot sure which one is the better start. Appreciate any advice.

MIAMI DEF @ Baltimore

DALLAS DEF@ Cincinnati

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS DEF home against the Raiders

So if you had these 3 which one would you start in your championship game?

I would prefer to use a little more logic with my decision here, but my reasoning for Indy is well worth considering: all of the Raiders' offensive TDs over the last three games were scored in the Chargers' no-show in Week 15.

[The Football Guru 212]

On 12/26/2023 at 7:43 PM, polecatt said:

Okay, same team you've answered the past two weeks of mine      10 team, PPR, longball bonus, big bonus at 100/300 yds

We're in the championship! Gutted out a tough win last week. I got in the playoffs at 7-7, the two teams I've played, were the two teams that sweep me during the season. I beat them both in the playoffs to get to the championship!  Okay, shameless pat on the back aside

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, both at the NYG   or Chris Olave at TB?  Pick one to start

I'm leaning heavy to P Nakua. Probably recency bias. Him and Cooper tend to flip flop?

I'm tempted to start Olave. He's been red hot lately. I'm just concerned about his 1 catch for 4 yds, worst of his career, performance against TB earlier this season...

What do you think?

Also, this week at QB

Stafford at NYG or CJ Stroud vs Tenn?

 

After causing Kupp to drop two potential TDs with my advice to you last week, I'm almost scared to answer ...

I get the desire to start Nacua. I think my lean would be Olave first and Kupp second. I really get the sense Stafford will want to get his guy feeling good about himself again.

The Rams' offense is humming right now and the Giants' blitz could lead to multiple big-play receiving scores. I'm sure Stroud will have a good game, but I also prefer to let guys coming off an injury prove it to me again - especially if they are youngsters - if I have that luxury. I think you have that luxury with Stafford.

[polecatt 403]

7 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

After causing Kupp to drop two potential TDs with my advice to you last week, I'm almost scared to answer ...

I get the desire to start Nacua. I think my lean would be Olave first and Kupp second. I really get the sense Stafford will want to get his guy feeling good about himself again.

The Rams' offense is humming right now and the Giants' blitz could lead to multiple big-play receiving scores. I'm sure Stroud will have a good game, but I also prefer to let guys coming off an injury prove it to me again - especially if they are youngsters - if I have that luxury. I think you have that luxury with Stafford.

No worries, I've been trying to figure out this one all season and I'm not any closer than I was in week 5, lol

I appreciate that info about the Giants blitzing a lot. I wasn't even thinking they're a blitz happy D. I tend to agree, a rookie QB coming off injury, a bit of a concern. Stafford has been playing excellent lately. With the bonus we have for long TD plays, I like that match up. Plus, wouldn't be the first time I've brought In Stafford for a championship run!

[Ray_T 591]

ok in my 2 QB league I am facing a problem.

massive amounts of injuries.   been winning with smoke & mirrors but got myself here to the final.

at QB  Cousins, Herbert and Tanehill all went down (Tanehill dropped)

at RB: Jacobs is doubtful and Pacheco is questionable. and Kyren williams got traded to fill the gap at QB

at WR Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Courtland sutton are all out for this week

 

my starting roster now looks like this:

At QB

Flacco, Carr   (heinecke backup)

at WR

Hopkins, Nico Collins,  K Osborn

at RB

Hunt played and put up serviceable numbers(I was pretty sure one of my RB's wasnt gonna play this week and I was right)   

Pacheco or Jacobs

at Def  vegas

at kicker   Santos

 

my lineup is more or less set, but I am pretty sure Jacobs is out and Pacheco may not clear concussion protocol in time

so my question(s):

who should I be grabbing at RB.   The RB ranks are picked clean

best options appear to be Justice Hill (Bal vs mia)   Sanders (car vs Jax) McLaughlin (Den v LA chargers) and Latavius Murray (Buf vs NE)

Assuming Jacobs is out, who would you pick up in the event Pacheco cannot go?

second question: I think I'm ok with Osborn who I just picked up  would anyone here consider Rashid Shaheed as a better option?

 

 

[easilyscan 559]

12 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

all of the Raiders' offensive TDs over the last three games were scored in the Chargers' no-show in Week 15.

Great point.

[DrG 94]

I’ve got to pick 2:

Aaron Jones, DMont or Tyson Chandler. Chandler seems the biggest wild card.

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Tee Higgins vs KJ Osborn full PPR (if Addison sits and Chase plays)

[robocardz 14]

FULL PPR - NEED 2

David Montgomery (TD dependent - Dal tough D)

Zahmir White (Jacobs)

CEH

D Singletary

 

Help.  Full PPR

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

Hey Guru.  Two decisions I need to make.  PPR w/ big bonuses for long TDs

Evans or D. Smith.  Evans has been great, but never does anything against Lattimore.

D. Henry or Mixon.  

 

[DrG 94]

Happy New Year all and good luck! Doug thank you for another year of great insights.

Mostert’s ankle solved my dilemma. Chandler Jones Ford with Monty. Monty has been solid this year btw.  Doug thank you for that preseason tip.

Return league rolling w Shaheed over McLaurin. I’ll take the guy who’s overachieved … may it be punt return Sunday for him.

 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

Mostert just changed my problem to Achane vs Higgins. 

[The Football Guru 212]

19 hours ago, ZeroTolerance said:

Tee Higgins vs KJ Osborn full PPR (if Addison sits and Chase plays)

Higgins

[The Football Guru 212]

4 hours ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

Hey Guru.  Two decisions I need to make.  PPR w/ big bonuses for long TDs

Evans or D. Smith.  Evans has been great, but never does anything against Lattimore.

D. Henry or Mixon.  

 

Don't think you can go wrong with either WR. I suppose you make a compelling case against Evans, so it sounds like you are leaning Smith. And I hope I'm wrong, but Arizona's heavy usage of two-high safeties could make today a Smith day.

I suppose I'd go with Mixon. Just like two weeks ago, I think Houston sells out to stop Henry.

[The Football Guru 212]

18 hours ago, robocardz said:

FULL PPR - NEED 2

David Montgomery (TD dependent - Dal tough D)

Zahmir White (Jacobs)

CEH

D Singletary

 

Help.  Full PPR

I would have gone with Monty. If you didn't, White would be my pick.

[Lake209 34]

On 12/27/2023 at 11:12 PM, The Football Guru said:

I don't think I could play Waddle with what we know right now. "Not a serious high ankle" is still enough of a high ankle to drastically affect performance, which is not something that he needs going against perhaps the best defense in the league.

I will address the first part of your question in the column.

Thank you, Guru. Last game worked out great, in part thanks to your help this season. Havent been #1 in a while…feels great.

Thank you to the many other members here for your individual advice this year.  You all make this board the best in fantasy. Hope you had great success this week & this season.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, Lake209 said:

Thank you, Guru. Last game worked out great, in part thanks to your help this season. Havent been #1 in a while…feels great.

Thank you to the many other members here for your individual advice this year.  You all make this board the best in fantasy. Hope you had great success this week & this season.

congrats to you.

but dont go giving us all too much credit.  I have given a lot of advice to people who then choose to ignore it and then complain about why they lose.

even if you credit us with the good advice, you also had a good enough head on your shoulders to see the advice for what it was and make the right move. 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Lake209 said:

Thank you, Guru. Last game worked out great, in part thanks to your help this season. Havent been #1 in a while…feels great.

Thank you to the many other members here for your individual advice this year.  You all make this board the best in fantasy. Hope you had great success this week & this season.

Congrats, and thank you for your help, we appreciate you.