Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2024: First Four Rounds

[Fumbleweed 426]

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2024 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Tyreek Hill 
3. Justin Jefferson
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Bijan Robinson
6. Kyren Williams
7. Travis Etienne
8. Ja'Marr Chase
9. Jonathan Taylor 
10. Breece Hall 
11. A.J. Brown
12. Jahmyr Gibbs

Round Two:

13. Amon-Ra St. Brown
14. James Cook
15. Nick Chubb
16. Josh Allen
17. Cooper Kupp 
18. D.J. Moore
19. De'Von Achane
20. Keenan Allen
21. Alvin Kamara
22. Davante Adams
23. Rachaad White
24. Saquon Barkley

Round Three:

25. Mike Evans
26. Jalen Hurts
27. Isiah Pacheco
28. Sam LaPorta
29. Puka Nacua
30. Travis Kelce
31. Raheem Mostert
32. Derrick Henry
33. Deebo Samuel 
34. Lamar Jackson 
35. James Conner
36. Brandon Aiyuk 

Round Four:

37. Joe Mixon
38. Garrett Wilson 
39. Nico Collins
40. Kenneth Walker 
41. Dak Prescott
42. Patrick Mahomes
43. Jordan Addison 
44. C.J. Stroud 
45. Josh Jacobs 
46. Justin Herbert
47. David Montgomery
48. D.K. Metcalf 

Honorable mention: Najee Harris, Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler, DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper

Thoughts??

[weepaws 2,461]

No comment, you don’t like it when people side against you.  Thanks. 

[wolves111 69]

Tank Dell might be the go to WR in Houston over Collins. Players like Ekeler, Barkley, Allen, seem headed towards number twos.

Great write up. I hope you continue to update over the next eight months when appropriate 

[makindollaz 40]

Very close to my 1st round, only difference was I’m a little higher on Chase (#3) and basically have Taylor & St. Brown swapped.

Feel like Chubb is high given his age and injury.

I also am a big R. Rice fan and looking at him starting mid/low 3rd round.

[Fumbleweed 426]

42 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No comment, you don’t like it when people side against you.  Thanks. 

?????

That's simply not true. I do ask for specific feedback like if you don't like this player, then who do you like in his stead, but I don't have a problem with others' opinions. Not sure where you got that idea. 

[wolves111 69]

13 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

?????

That's simply not true. I do ask for specific feedback like if you don't like this player, then who do you like in his stead, but I don't have a problem with others' opinions. Not sure where you got that idea. 

Just forgive him. I offered an olive branch to him even after he repeatedly demeaned me. Thought it was the Christian thing to do. Some people have problems that can’t be overcome. Just pray for him that his life improves and he loses the blackness in his heart.

[polecatt 403]

Looks pretty good for the most part. I think a lot of drafts would look pretty similar.

Hard to argue with CMC and Tyreek 1st and 2nd.

I personally wouldn't draft Bijan until the 2nd round but I bet he'll be top 5 in a lot of drafts.

If you can get Puka Nacua in the 3rd round, that's the steal of the draft. He probably will be 2nd or 3rd, but I think he's a 1st round talent.

It's gonna be interesting to see who ends up being the favorite between him and Cooper Kupp next season

[RareN64Dream 9]

Stefon Diggs might get picked in first 4 rounds.

[makindollaz 40]

1 hour ago, RareN64Dream said:

Stefon Diggs might get picked in first 4 rounds.

No idea where to slot Diggs or Kelce.  If they’re getting drafted in the first 2-3 rounds, it’s off of reputation…not productivity the second half of the season.

[Fumbleweed 426]

1 hour ago, RareN64Dream said:

Stefon Diggs might get picked in first 4 rounds.

Oversight on my part. I will find a home for him most likely in next update. 

[Showboat 145]

Don't think Henry on the wrong side of 30 with a fair amount of mileage on the tires should be in the top four rounds.  Best case is that he carves out a Jerome Bettis-like goal-line back role someplace.  More likely is that he is done - the cliff comes up abruptly for heavily used RBs.  Kelce shouldn't be drafted in the first four rounds either (but he may very well be in many leagues).  There wasn't a large sample size, but Anthony Richardson was looking like the real deal and could be a league winner if he drops (and learns to protect himself better) - I'd much rather take my chances with him several rounds later than Stroud in the fourth.  

[Fumbleweed 426]

11 minutes ago, Showboat said:

Don't think Henry on the wrong side of 30 with a fair amount of mileage on the tires should be in the top four rounds.  Best case is that he carves out a Jerome Bettis-like goal-line back role someplace.  More likely is that he is done - the cliff comes up abruptly for heavily used RBs.  Kelce shouldn't be drafted in the first four rounds either (but he may very well be in many leagues).  There wasn't a large sample size, but Anthony Richardson was looking like the real deal and could be a league winner if he drops (and learns to protect himself better) - I'd much rather take my chances with him several rounds later than Stroud in the fourth.  

Richardson is such an interesting fantasy prospect. I agree that he'll be one to snatch up in a redraft this summer. As for Henry, it's hard to say if he's truly done or not. Would a change of scenery do him some good? Possibly. 

[makindollaz 40]

My gut is telling me Henry has one more productive season (1100-1200 yards? 7-8 TD’s?) left in the tank, before a Dalvin Cook-type drop off in 2025.  That said, there are quite a few young RB’s I’d take ahead of him in redraft in 2024.

[cavern 70]

18 hours ago, polecatt said:

It's gonna be interesting to see who ends up being the favorite between him and Cooper Kupp next season

I think that right there is why he drops a bit for the time being

[BufordT 371]

If Henry retires or goes to another team Tyjae Spears will be a 2nd rounder for me.  They are waiting patiently to turn this kid loose.

Garrett Wilson is a 2nd rounder for me as well assuming Rodgers is back at QB

Mahomes will be my #1 QB if Matt Nagy no longer has anything to do with the Chiefs offense.

[makindollaz 40]

1 hour ago, BufordT said:

If Henry retires or goes to another team Tyjae Spears will be a 2nd rounder for me.  They are waiting patiently to turn this kid loose.

Garrett Wilson is a 2nd rounder for me as well assuming Rodgers is back at QB

Mahomes will be my #1 QB if Matt Nagy no longer has anything to do with the Chiefs offense.

In one of my leagues we keep 5, and I’m thinking about Spears being one of my 5 if Henry moves on.

Four definites are Jefferson, R. White, J. Allen & Aiyuk.  Would probably come down to Kelce, Javonte Williams, Cooper or Spears for the last spot.

[Showboat 145]

3 hours ago, makindollaz said:

In one of my leagues we keep 5, and I’m thinking about Spears being one of my 5 if Henry moves on.

Four definites are Jefferson, R. White, J. Allen & Aiyuk.  Would probably come down to Kelce, Javonte Williams, Cooper or Spears for the last spot.

R.White may not be a no-brainer.  He had a productive season, but 3.6 ypc may cause the Bucs to look for an upgrade next year.

[wolves111 69]

On 1/3/2024 at 3:14 PM, Fumbleweed said:

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2024 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Tyreek Hill 
3. Justin Jefferson
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Bijan Robinson
6. Kyren Williams
7. Travis Etienne
8. Ja'Marr Chase
9. Jonathan Taylor 
10. Breece Hall 
11. A.J. Brown
12. Jahmyr Gibbs

Round Two:

13. Amon-Ra St. Brown
14. James Cook
15. Nick Chubb
16. Josh Allen
17. Cooper Kupp 
18. D.J. Moore
19. De'Von Achane
20. Keenan Allen
21. Alvin Kamara
22. Davante Adams
23. Rachaad White
24. Saquon Barkley

Round Three:

25. Mike Evans
26. Jalen Hurts
27. Isiah Pacheco
28. Sam LaPorta
29. Puka Nacua
30. Travis Kelce
31. Raheem Mostert
32. Derrick Henry
33. Deebo Samuel 
34. Lamar Jackson 
35. James Conner
36. Brandon Aiyuk 

Round Four:

37. Joe Mixon
38. Garrett Wilson 
39. Nico Collins
40. Kenneth Walker 
41. Dak Prescott
42. Patrick Mahomes
43. Jordan Addison 
44. C.J. Stroud 
45. Josh Jacobs 
46. Justin Herbert
47. David Montgomery
48. D.K. Metcalf 

Honorable mention: Najee Harris, Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler, DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper

Thoughts??

LaPorta the first to drop. Carted off with a knee. Shame. Lions didn’t even need the game.

[cmh6476 756]

I may end up liking Taylor and hall more than Bijan and kyler.

[cmh6476 756]

Travis takes a dip and isn't the top team anymore.  I still think Mahomes is your no. 1 qb.  You know the Chiefs aren't standing pat and pat will get some weapons. 

[Gepetto 988]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:14 PM, Fumbleweed said:

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2024 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

5. Bijan Robinson

Thoughts??

I had Bijan this year. I don't think he should be drafted next year in the first round.

[LaChup 154]

Unless you are Chubb's mom, I see no need for this particular ranking.

[cavern 70]

11 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I had Bijan this year. I don't think he should be drafted next year in the first round.

probably worth seeing how the coaching shakes out, here

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Bijan, I had him and will draft again in round 1. New coach is enough, but maybe a new QB as well and I see a big season for him. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

In non-PPR, Mike Evans is a 1st round pick if he re-signs and God forbid, Mayfield is back.  Evans will be a lock for 1200 and 12 again, maybe even more if Tampa fixes their interior OLine issues.  Going out on a limb, but I'm guessing Evans was top 5 this year.

[makindollaz 40]

In my one non-PPR league, Evans was #3.

[Ray_T 591]

On 1/4/2024 at 9:47 AM, Fumbleweed said:

Richardson is such an interesting fantasy prospect. I agree that he'll be one to snatch up in a redraft this summer. As for Henry, it's hard to say if he's truly done or not. Would a change of scenery do him some good? Possibly. 

in games where the game script was good Henry still performed.   so I am inclined to think this is a symptom of being on a bad team.

there may still be tread on the tires but I suspect its getting thin.

Henrys value will depend largely on the situation he finds himself in next year.   At this point it is too early to predict where he will be or how he will do.   One thing I'm reasonably certain of..... I dont think hes an RB1 anymore.    while not impossible, I'd say its unlikely.    if he does perform next year, it is likely his last year doing it.

[polecatt 403]

It will be interesting to see this draft right after the season, compared to the mock drafts in July or August or something.

 

[Ray_T 591]

10 hours ago, polecatt said:

It will be interesting to see this draft right after the season, compared to the mock drafts in July or August or something.

 

well, some players (or their teammates) will be changing teams and thus the rankings will shift based on how the offense as a whole will perform

[polecatt 403]

14 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, some players (or their teammates) will be changing teams and thus the rankings will shift based on how the offense as a whole will perform

Exactly! That and the draft. There will certainly be at least a couple of rookies thrown into the mix too

[makindollaz 40]

6 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Exactly! That and the draft. There will certainly be at least a couple of rookies thrown into the mix too

Curious to see if any rookie RB’s are worth a pick in the first 7-8 rounds of redraft.  I’m sure at least 5-6 WR’s will…looks like a pretty good group this year.

[polecatt 403]

8 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

Curious to see if any rookie RB’s are worth a pick in the first 7-8 rounds of redraft.  I’m sure at least 5-6 WR’s will…looks like a pretty good group this year.

With how thin and volatile the current RB situation is, I'm almost certain there will be at least one that get hyped up into the first two rounds. The first 7-8 rounds, probably 2-3 or so. Last season you had people hyping up Bijan as potentially the #1 overall pick. Which of course was laughable, considering he was on one of the worst offenses in the NFL which already had decent RB depth.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

With how thin and volatile the current RB situation is, I'm almost certain there will be at least one that get hyped up into the first two rounds. The first 7-8 rounds, probably 2-3 or so. Last season you had people hyping up Bijan as potentially the #1 overall pick. Which of course was laughable, considering he was on one of the worst offenses in the NFL which already had decent RB depth.

agreed.  I had him high on my list for dynasty but not nearly as high for redraft.

 

[makindollaz 40]

But last year seemed like Bijan & Gibbs were getting 1st round hype in the NFL draft mocks (not just fantasy).  I’m not seeing any RB’s with that draft grade this year yet.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

On 1/7/2024 at 4:44 PM, cmh6476 said:

Travis takes a dip and isn't the top team anymore.  I still think Mahomes is your no. 1 qb.  You know the Chiefs aren't standing pat and pat will get some weapons. 

 

Mahomes won't be #1 if they don't find someone to stretch the field....no not Mecole, a real WR not a track star.  MVS thankfully will be gone.  Kelce wasn't even the top TE this year, next year will be his last year.  Age catches up with us all and it caught him this year for sure.  

KC led the entire league in expected EPA vs. actual EPA difference caused by WRs.  So the WRs were responsible for the largest gap between real EPA versus what EPA should have been, minus the errors.  Another way to look at that is the fact that Mahomes had the "least" amount of help from his WR group in the entire league.  We all know about them leading the league in dropped passes but this also factors in the mental mistakes, wrong / poor routes.  Entire group minus Rashee needs overhauled.  

I'm sure KC will be in cap trouble again this year so getting a FA like Higgins is highly unlikely.  Maybe a guy like Pittman could work or I'd like to maybe see them take a look at Mooney (hands, route running).  Hollywood Brown would fit the field stretcher role nicely too.  

[lowman66 0]

My strategy will be best player available round one

Then as many shares of Puka, James Cook, Tank Dell, Isaiah Likely 

[Fumbleweed 426]

Updated- number in parentheses indicates movement since initial submission... 

Round One:

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Tyreek Hill 
3. Justin Jefferson
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Bijan Robinson
6. Kyren Williams
7. Breece Hall (+3)
8. Ja'Marr Chase
9. Jonathan Taylor 
10. Travis Etienne (-3)
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2) 
12. Jahmyr Gibbs

Round Two:

13. A.J. Brown (-2) 
14. James Cook
15. Nick Chubb
16. Josh Allen
17. Puka Nacua (+12)
18. D.J. Moore
19. De'Von Achane
20. Davante Adams (+2)
21. Isiah Pacheco (+6)
22. Mike Evans (+3)
23. Rachaad White
24. Saquon Barkley

Round Three:

25. Keenan Allen (-5)
26. Nico Collins (+13)
27. Alvin Kamara (-6)
28. Sam LaPorta
29. Brandon Aiyuk (+7)
30. Travis Kelce
31. Raheem Mostert
32. Derrick Henry
33. Jalen Hurts (-7)
34. Lamar Jackson 
35. James Conner
36. Deebo Samuel (-3) 

Round Four:

37. Joe Mixon
38. Garrett Wilson 
39. Cooper Kupp (-22) 
40. Kenneth Walker 
41. Dak Prescott
42. Patrick Mahomes
43. Stefon Diggs (New)
44. C.J. Stroud 
45. Josh Jacobs 
46. Justin Herbert
47. David Montgomery
48. D.K. Metcalf 

Just missing: George Kittle, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, Austin Ekeler, DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper

[Maximum Overkill 646]

On 1/23/2024 at 3:23 PM, Fumbleweed said:

11. Amon-Ra St. Brown

I agree, Amon Ra is no doubt a first round pick. He's so darn consistent and money every single week.