***The 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby***

[GobbleDog 822]

1) Dornoch                     22-1                 11) Forever Young            6-1

2) Sierra Leone              5-1                  12) Track Phantom           41-1 

3) Mystik Dan                16-1                 13) West Saratoga            24-1

4) Catching Freedom    8-1                    14) Endlessly                   46-1

5) Catalytic                    32-1                  15) Domestic Product     28-1

6) Just Steel                  22-1                  16) Grand Mo the First   45-1

7) Honor Marie             13-1                   17) Fierceness                  3-1

8)) Just a Touch           11-1                   18) Stronghold                 36-1  

9) Encino                       20-1  Scrtch      19) Resilience                  20-1

10) T O Password        46-1                   20) Society Man              44-1

                                                                   21) Epic Ride                    44-1

Post time - Saturday May 4, 6:57 pm 

The sun shines bright on my ole Kentucky home! 

Odds updated Sat 5:40 pm

[BunnysBastatrds 1,940]

 I’ll take the 1, 2, 18 horses and box them for a $96.00

[MikeMatt 7]

I cannot believe it is already derby time. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

Heck I play the horses almost daily. wow only two 3-1's in it and the rest long shots.

[GobbleDog 822]

I posted this last year. Inside booth view of Larry Collmus calling the 2022 Derby - the year Rich Strike won at 80:1 odds... 2nd biggest longshot in Derby history.  The superfecta paid over $321,000. 

Skip to 1:30 to see them coming down the stretch. Great video.

 

[Horseman 1,565]

Run for the roses takes on a special meaning during an election year.  Everyone wants to know who the presidential hopefuls are betting on.

Trump is banking on Catching Freedom while Biden posted that he wants to exacta box Just a Touch with Forever Young.

 

[double tour 89]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I posted this last year. Inside booth view of Larry Collmus calling the 2022 Derby - the year Rich Strike won at 80:1 odds... 2nd biggest longshot in Derby history.  The superfecta paid over $321,000. 

Skip to 1:30 to see them coming down the stretch. Great video.

 

That is the coolest sports video I've ever seen.  Dude kicked ass.

[tubby_mcgee 691]

Over a 55% one of these horses wins (statically, based on Brisnet Prime Power rankings):

Fierceness
Just A Touch
Sierra Leone
Forever Young

 

I don't know if 55% is correct. I do think those are the 4 best horses.  Best horses often don't win in 20 horse fields. 

 

Anyways......

______________________________________________________________


For $1,000,000 of if you pick the winner of the KD, would you rather

1.) Get to pick 3 horses of your choice (if any of your 3 win, you win the $1M)

2.) Get the field (if any of the other 17 win, you win the $1M)

 

If 3 isn't enough, how about 4 horses of your choice vs the field? 

5?

6?

??? 

[GobbleDog 822]

Alright, let’s get down to business gentlemen. Same qualifier as always - Eliminate any horse not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Accounts for 15 of last 21 Derby winners (16 if not Medina Spirit dq). 

Wood Memorial

1. Resilience

2. Society Man

Arkansas Derby

1. Muth  Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids

2. Just Steel

Blue Grass Stakes

1. Sierra Leone

2. Just A Touch

Santa Anita Derby

1. Stronghold

2. Imagination  Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids dude

Florida Derby

1. Fierceness

2. Catalytic

...........................................................................

Down to 8. Let’s sniff the glue.

(50-1) Society Man 2^nd in Wood Memorial with a career best speed figure 99. Took four races to break maiden which explains ridiculous 107-1 odds at the Wood.  Now has the #20 outside post which takes a mighty talented horse to overcome. My labradoodle has a better chance.

(20-1) Just Steel 2^nd in Arkansas at 33-1 odds with a shocking speed figure of 112.  Prior 10 races - best speed of 99, achieved way back in his 3^rd race ever.?.  Late growth spurt maybe, but 11 races with only 2 wins (neither graded) is the resume of a Derby loser.  Jockey is making his Derby debut. Good luck rookie.

(30-1) Catalytic 2^nd in Florida at 29-1 odds with a speed figure of 90. Won maiden first try, followed by two second places. Lightly raced and losing to Fierceness isn’t shameful. What is shameful is losing by 13.5 lengths while being in clear second the entire race. Just doesn’t have the speed to contend with the best. Desperately needs a Baffert injection.  

(20-1) Resilience won the Wood Memorial at 5-1 odds with a speed figure of 103. Took four races to break maiden, followed by a 4^th in a Grd 2 race, and then the Wood Memorial. The jockey in those races – John Velazquez. Who’s the jockey in the Kentucky Derby? Not Velazquez who ditched this flea bag for a better prospect. 

……………………………………………………..

Down to 4. Let’s spitball

(20-1) Stronghold won the prestigious Santa Anita at 2-1 odds. 6 starts – 3 wins/3 seconds.  Raced in four Graded races, trained by Todd Pletcher, decent post position.  How could that resume have such Derby odds?  Because this year’s Santa Anita crop wasn’t all that. Speed figures improved every race, but only peaked at 99 in Santa and down the stretch… rather slow. Probably finishes near the top, but win? Meh.

(3-1) Sierra Leone won the Blue Grass at 2-1 odds. 4 starts – 3 wins/1 second. Won maiden first try with impressive 89 speed, then two Grd 2 races, before finishing with a 107 speed at the Blue. Wins on grass, dirt and slop. Definitely one of the best horses in this race. Respected Chad Brown trainer (surprisingly 0 for 7 in Derby). What’s not to like? A bit concerning his slow starts in recent races required huge comebacks, which won’t be as easy in a 20-horse field. But the deal-breaker – the #2 post. Many elites have tried and failed. Either run like hell to avoid pack (and get exhausted) or slide back and try navigating around a crowded field while making a huge comeback. Last horse to win Derby from #3 post or lower – 1998 Real Quiet (#3). Last Bluegrass horse to win Derby – 1991 Strike the Gold.  If Sierra overcomes all that and still wins this thing, hats off – hope he gets a foot fungus.

…………………………………………………………..

Then there were two

(10-1) Just A Touch 2^nd in the Blue Grass at 3-1 odds with a 105 speed figure. 3 starts – 1 win/2 seconds. Won maiden first try with 100 speed, followed by second in Grd 3 race, then second at Blue by only 1.5 lengths behind Sierra. Brad Cox trained and great post at #8.  Years back I’d have quickly ditched this Apollo Cursed horse for not racing as a two year old, but that curse is now officially dead (Apollo 1882, Justify 2018, Mage 2023). Horse racing has changed. This horse is clearly among the top ‘24 contenders. Still, very lightly raced and trying to overcome the Blue Grass drought at the Derby (33 years). But I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of him – has the talent/trainer/post position to do it.

Therefore, the winner of the 150^th Running of the Kentucky Derby will be

(3-1) Fierceness won Florida at 1-1 odds with a 110 speed figure. 5 starts – 3 wins/1 third. Won maiden with a  stellar 102 speed; Crapped next Grd 1 race finishing 7^th (bad start); Won next Grd 1 with 110 speed; Crapped next Grd 3 race finishing 3^rd (bad start). Destroyed field at Florida winning by 13.5 lengths. Todd Pletcher trained. The fastest horse at the Derby by any speed measure and distance shouldn’t be an issue. The only knock is he hasn’t won back to back.  Chalk those up to bad starts and he’s clearly the one to beat. The outer post should certainly help the starting issues. #17 has never actually won the Derby, but they didn’t start racing 20 horses til 1975 and he’ll technically be exiting the 16th post since Encino got scratched. Finally, remember John Velazquez ditching Resilience?  Guess who he chose.

I don’t always pick the favorite, I just widdle down the field and take what’s left. But this helps – in 2013 Derby qualification rules changed to a point system to reduce speedster horses. Before 2013 no favorite had won the Derby in over 20 years (wore out chasing speedsters). But in 2013, '14, '15, '16, '17 and '18.... the favorite won every Derby.  The favorite has now finished top three in 10 of the last 11 races.  

Of the major prep races, the Florida Derby and Santa Anita have dominated Kentucky in recent years with 9 of 16 last Derby winners having previously won or placed in those races (10 if not Medina Spirit dq).

Good luck everyone!

[Engorgeous George 1,235]

The sesquicentennial.

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

13 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Alright, let’s get down to business gentlemen. Same qualifier as always - Eliminate any horse not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Accounts for 15 of last 21 Derby winners (16 if not Medina Spirit dq). 

Wood Memorial

1. Resilience

2. Society Man

Arkansas Derby

1. Muth  Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids

2. Just Steel

Blue Grass Stakes

1. Sierra Leone

2. Just A Touch

Santa Anita Derby

1. Stronghold

2. Imagination  Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids dude

Florida Derby

1. Fierceness

2. Catalytic

...........................................................................

Down to 8. Let’s sniff the glue.

(50-1) Society Man 2^nd in Wood Memorial with a career best speed figure 99. Took four races to break maiden which explains ridiculous 107-1 odds at the Wood.  Now has the #20 outside post which takes a mighty talented horse to overcome. My labradoodle has a better chance.

(20-1) Just Steel 2^nd in Arkansas at 33-1 odds with a shocking speed figure of 112.  Prior 10 races - best speed of 99, achieved way back in his 3^rd race ever.?.  Late growth spurt maybe, but 11 races with only 2 wins (neither graded) is the resume of a Derby loser.  Jockey is making his Derby debut. Good luck rookie.

(30-1) Catalytic 2^nd in Florida at 29-1 odds with a speed figure of 90. Won maiden first try, followed by two second places. Lightly raced and losing to Fierceness isn’t shameful. What is shameful is losing by 13.5 lengths while being in clear second the entire race. Just doesn’t have the speed to contend with the best. Desperately needs a Baffert injection.  

(20-1) Resilience won the Wood Memorial at 5-1 odds with a speed figure of 103. Took four races to break maiden, followed by a 4^th in a Grd 2 race, and then the Wood Memorial. The jockey in those races – John Velazquez. Who’s the jockey in the Kentucky Derby? Not Velazquez who ditched this flea bag for a better prospect. 

……………………………………………………..

Down to 4. Let’s spitball

(20-1) Stronghold won the prestigious Santa Anita at 2-1 odds. 6 starts – 3 wins/3 seconds.  Raced in four Graded races, trained by Todd Pletcher, decent post position.  How could that resume have such Derby odds?  Because this year’s Santa Anita crop wasn’t all that. Speed figures improved every race, but only peaked at 99 in Santa and down the stretch… rather slow. Probably finishes near the top, but win? Meh.

(3-1) Sierra Leone won the Blue Grass at 2-1 odds. 4 starts – 3 wins/1 second. Won maiden first try with impressive 89 speed, then two Grd 2 races, before finishing with a 107 speed at the Blue. Wins on grass, dirt and slop. Definitely one of the best horses in this race. Respected Chad Brown trainer (surprisingly 0 for 7 in Derby). What’s not to like? A bit concerning his slow starts in recent races required huge comebacks, which won’t be as easy in a 20-horse field. But the deal-breaker – the #2 post. Many elites have tried and failed. Either run like hell to avoid pack (and get exhausted) or slide back and try navigating around a crowded field while making a huge comeback. Last horse to win Derby from #3 post or lower – 1998 Real Quiet (#3). Last Bluegrass horse to win Derby – 1991 Strike the Gold.  If Sierra overcomes all that and still wins this thing, hats off – hope he gets a foot fungus.

…………………………………………………………..

Then there were two

(10-1) Just A Touch 2^nd in the Blue Grass at 3-1 odds with a 105 speed figure. 3 starts – 1 win/2 seconds. Won maiden first try with 100 speed, followed by second in Grd 3 race, then second at Blue by only 1.5 lengths behind Sierra. Brad Cox trained and great post at #8.  Years back I’d have quickly ditched this Apollo Cursed horse for not racing as a two year old, but that curse is now officially dead (Apollo 1882, Justify 2018, Mage 2023). Horse racing has changed. This horse is clearly among the top ‘24 contenders. Still, very lightly raced and trying to overcome the Blue Grass drought at the Derby (33 years). But I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of him – has the talent/trainer/post position to do it.

Therefore, the winner of the 150^th Running of the Kentucky Derby will be

(3-1) Fierceness won Florida at 1-1 odds with a 110 speed figure. 5 starts – 3 wins/1 third. Won maiden with a  stellar 102 speed; Crapped next Grd 1 race finishing 7^th (bad start); Won next Grd 1 with 110 speed; Crapped next Grd 3 race finishing 3^rd (bad start). Destroyed field at Florida winning by 13.5 lengths. Todd Pletcher trained. The fastest horse at the Derby by any speed measure and distance shouldn’t be an issue. The only knock is he hasn’t won back to back.  Chalk those up to bad starts and he’s clearly the one to beat. The outer post should certainly help the starting issues. #17 has never actually won the Derby, but they didn’t start racing 20 horses til 1975 and he’ll technically be exiting the 16th post since Encino got scratched. Finally, remember John Velazquez ditching Resilience?  Guess who he chose.

I don’t always pick the favorite, I just widdle down the field and take what’s left. But this helps – in 2013 Derby qualification rules changed to a point system to reduce speedster horses. Before 2013 no favorite had won the Derby in over 20 years (wore out chasing speedsters). But in 2013, '14, '15, '16, '17 and '18.... the favorite won every Derby.  The favorite has now finished top three in 10 of the last 11 races.  

Of the major prep races, the Florida Derby and Santa Anita have dominated Kentucky in recent years with 9 of 16 last Derby winners having previously won or placed in those races (10 if not Medina Spirit dq).

Good luck everyone!

Good stuff thanks! I do a lot of race betting, like 5 days a week and I always go with speed when finish stats are close.

[GobbleDog 822]

21 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Good stuff thanks! I do a lot of race betting, like 5 days a week and I always go with speed when finish stats are close.

"Speed figures" I quote are all from Equibase which shows "E Speed" - algorithm mixing actual time/track conditions/whatnot. Some articles quote similar, but slightly different numbers - probably Beyer. Regardless, apples-to-apples it's a great way to compare horses.

Have to admit I'm concerned about the 5 major prep race qualification this year. I really love Fierceness and Just A Touch. Sierra Leone is incredible, but that post position is a killer. Beyond them... the remaining horses are suspect. Might be one of those odd years the qualification misses. But I'm sticking with it because it's done well for me, though not as confident as years past. Shocking the lack of great horses out of Santa Anita for the first time in forever. Although maybe a blessing because that always makes the widdling more difficult.

[Gepetto 997]

Is there any advice on maximizing odds and payouts when deciding how many horses to bet and what exactly to bet (exacta, exacta box, exacta box with 3 horses, trifecta box)? 

[GobbleDog 822]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Is there any advice on maximizing odds and payouts when deciding how many horses to bet and what exactly to bet (exacta, exacta box, exacta box with 3 horses, trifecta box)? 

I'm a cheapskate when it comes to betting. Going to bet Fierceness $20 win/$20 place/$20 show and sprinkle $3 on Just a Touch win/place/show. Total wager $69. Won't win a lot, but minimal risk.

Exoctic bets terrify me with a 20 horse field... but if I did I'd probably "key" my favorite to win... with 5-6 horses I like underneath. For me that would be: Just A Touch/ Stronghold/ Catching Freedom/ Honor Marie/ Track Phantom/ Domestic Product.

Exacta wise...  Fierceness / 8, 18, 4, 7, 12, 15....  $6 wager.

Trifecta wise... Fierceness /  8, 18, 4, 7, 12, 15 (boxed underneath)... $30 wager

But I prefer good old win/place/show. Hard enough picking the winner... picking 2nd and 3rd places too - with 20 horses.?.  Makes my head hurt.

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

with 20 horses.?.  Makes my head hurt.

Yea that is a lot of horses and I can almost guarantee that one of the long shots end up in the top 3.

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

I threw a $10 no sweat bet on Fierceness  to win on Fanduel, If you bet early they give you your money back to bet again if your horse doesn't win.

[listen2me 23 1,558]

Jap breaks through. 

Im going Forever Young. 

[edjr 5,623]

I have an idea for a new Olympic event.

We should have people run the derby and have little people like Gutterboy ride on their shoulders and whip them

[GobbleDog 822]

7 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Jap breaks through. 

Im going Forever Young. 

Japs have attacked the Derby five times with six horses.

'95 Ski Captain ... 14th

'16 Lani ... 9th

'19 Master Fencer ... 6th

'22 Crown Pride ... 13th

'23 Mandarin Hero ... 12th 

'23 Derma Sotgake ... 6th

[listen2me 23 1,558]

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Japs have attacked the Derby five times with six horses.

'95 Ski Captain ... 14th

'16 Lani ... 9th

'19 Master Fencer ... 6th

'22 Crown Pride ... 13th

'23 Mandarin Hero ... 12th 

'23 Derma Sotgake ... 6th

Im not horse gambler but will dabble on the big races.  Just a hunch here.  

I know the top 2 horses are the best clearly.  What do you make of the starting spots tho?  Seems like it could muddy the waters a bit.  Any insight on how favorites have performed with less than ideal to bad starting spots?

[GobbleDog 822]

29 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Im not horse gambler but will dabble on the big races.  Just a hunch here.  

I know the top 2 horses are the best clearly.  What do you make of the starting spots tho?  Seems like it could muddy the waters a bit.  Any insight on how favorites have performed with less than ideal to bad starting spots?

It used to be the death nail even for the best. The wave of horses crowding them out was just too much. HOWEVER, they changed the starting gate in 2020 so those inside horses weren't staring straight at the rail like they used to. But there haven't been any really good horses in the #1 or #2 posts over the past 4 years so it's hard to tell... 

Interestingly though, Two Phills (with long odds) had the #3 post last year and finished 2nd.  Epicenter had short odds and was #3 post in 2022... finished 2nd.

So maybe it has helped. Seirra Leone is without question a GREAT horse. If anyone can do it, he can. Especially with his come-back style. But until I see it... I won't bet it.  #3 post I'd be a little more inclined, not #2.

[bostonlager 2,485]

53 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Im not horse gambler but will dabble on the big races.  

This is me. Tell me what you guys are betting so I can tail 

[Horseman 1,565]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

This is me. Tell me what you guys are betting so I can tail 

Sierra Leone   

Catching Freedom      

 Fierceness

Are my 3 key horses.  Exacta box those three.  Might try and key them with some longer shots when I get a closer look at'em.  

Another simple way to do it if you have a favorite is to bet 1u Win 2u Place and 3u Show on that one horse.  Catching Freedom maybe.  Everyone hops on the favorite (Fierceness) and bets it down in the popular races.  Millions of people that don't regularly bet horses.  He'll be even money or worse by post time.

[Baker Boy 1,499]

7) Honor Marie             20-1    Top 3

[GobbleDog 822]

Happy Derby Day! 

Derby facts....

Secretariat remains the fastest horse in Derby history. The record time of 1:59.4 has never been broken.

Only 3 horses ran in the 1892 and 1905 Derbies.

The youngest jockeys to ever win - Alonzo Clayton and James Perkins... both 15 yo in 1892 & 1895.

The oldest winner is Bill Shoemaker... 54 yo in 1986.

Eddie Arcaro ('38-'52) & Bill Hartack ('57-'69) are tied with the most jockey Derby wins at 5

The first 15 Derbies were all won by negro jockeys. From 1920 to 2000, no dark jockeys raced.

Only 9 geldings have ever won - the last was Mine That Bird in 2009.

Only 3 fillies (female horses) have ever won... 1915 Regret, 1980 Genuine Risk, 1988 Winning Colors

No female trainer has ever won. No female jockey has ever won - closest was 2013 Rosie Napravnik in 5th place.

Mike Smith has ridden the most horses (27) in Derby history... won twice - 2005 & 2018.

Largest Derby crowd was 170,513 in 2015.

The Derby has never been cancelled due to weather.

The Derby has only been postponed twice - 1945 for end of WWII, and 2020 for Coronavirus.

The biggest longshot to ever win was Donerail in 1913 at 91-1 odds.

The biggest payout in Derby history was in 2022 with a $1 superfecta paying $321,500.

[Stryker Ryker 182]

Betting on 4, 7, & 11. Wish I could be there cause I have better odds of winning. Used to go quite a good bit when we lived in Maryland & also when I lived in San Antonio. Usually just bet like $3-$10 per race depending on how I felt but I usually won enough to cover all my bets, drinks, & snacks 

[bostonlager 2,485]

21 hours ago, Horseman said:

Sierra Leone   

Catching Freedom      

 Fierceness

 

Thanks, I boxed these guys in a tri 

[bostonlager 2,485]

2 hours ago, Stryker Ryker said:

Betting on 4, 7, & 11. Wish I could be there cause I have better odds of winning. Used to go quite a good bit when we lived in Maryland & also when I lived in San Antonio. Usually just bet like $3-$10 per race depending on how I felt but I usually won enough to cover all my bets, drinks, & snacks 

Good to see you, digby. How’s the youngin’ doing?

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

Just realize I took Epic Ride 4 months ago on a $2 Kentucky Future bet.

[bostonlager 2,485]

1 minute ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Just realize I took Epic Ride 4 months ago on a $2 Kentucky Future bet.

+4400 now. What did you get him at?

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

26 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Thanks, I boxed these guys in a tri 

Only thing about that from what I know from betting horses is mostly likely 3 favs don't come in when you got 20 horses or more. Good luck Bro though.

 

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

+4400 now. What did you get him at?

Think he was supposed to pay around $230 then on a $2 bet.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,940]

On 5/3/2024 at 4:07 PM, bostonlager said:

This is me. Tell me what you guys are betting so I can tail 

 

 

[GobbleDog 822]

Let It Ride is a classic.

"The man just said the only way the horse could lose was if lightning strikes!!! Do you like the odds on lightning?"

[BunnysBastatrds 1,940]

 “Why did you pick him? “
“Same name as my cat”

[Nomad99 441]

Dan for the $300 shop pool win

[Patented Phil 836]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:49 PM, double tour said:

That is the coolest sports video I've ever seen.  Dude kicked ass.

That is WILD.  He was so surprised he almost missed it.  He didn’t mention Rich Strike once until he was about 50 yards from the finish.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 269]

20 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Happy Derby Day! 

Derby LIE ...

The biggest payout in Derby history was in 2022 with a $1 superfecta paying $321,500.

I know for damn sure the '05 Giacomo derby superfecta paid out at least 500k more than the '22 one you listed ... think it was up around 900k for the $1 superfecta payout, iirc 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,843]

I’ll have to remind myself not to read this thread next year. 

[listen2me 23 1,558]

On 5/3/2024 at 8:26 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Jap breaks through. 

Im going Forever Young. 

Close.  No cigar 

[BeenHereBefore 1,351]

4 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’ll have to remind myself not to read this thread next year. 

There was to many dang horses for any good predictions, why I was trying to tell people it was very unlikely that 3 favs would come in on the trifecta.