"Fantasy football is 90% luck!"

[MDC 5,890]

I'll take "Things that losers say" for $200, Alex.

[stonewall 647]

Clever post.

 

After many years and countless hours at this pursuit, I have settled on a 50/50 split between luck and skill (give or take 10% either direction), and I cant' be convinced otherwise.

[thesitedoc 5]

It's much closer to 50/50. No way you can control injuries and this game is so violent injuries happen every year. Not just to the players we draft but to key defensive players, such as a DB, who might be covering your WR one week and then not the next.

 

But you do have to prepare. You have to look at schedules, look at the transactions and moves that took place during the off-season etc...

 

You will not win if you simply print out a cheat sheet from your favorite FF site and got along with that verbatim. You really need to split hairs sometimes.

[surferskin 30]

I think that skill can guarantee a pretty decent overall winning percentage but winning the super bowl without a bit of luck is pretty rare.

[Riddlen 1]

I think that skill can guarantee a pretty decent overall winning percentage but winning the super bowl without a bit of luck is pretty rare.

getting to the playoffs is 60 skill 40 luck. after that its luck. thought your "skill" assembled your lineup. whatever. anytime you dont actually control the output its mostly luck.

[posty 2,296]

"Fantasy football is 90% 100% luck!"

 

Fixed...

[FeelingMN 273]

It's skill when I win.

 

It's luck when I lose.

[kutulu 1,545]

50% luck and 50% bad luck.

[edjr 5,557]

It's skill when I win.

 

It's bad luck when I lose.

 

[Busted by the Feds 9]

Hypothetical scenario :

 

Team A scores 1500 pts., 7-6 record

 

Team B scores 1200 pts. but has a 10-3 record.

 

Luck in matchups is a big part of it. Maybe not 90%, but Team B sure was lucky.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Skill can get you into the playoffs every year (barring some really bad luck with injuries). Luck takes over from there.

[RoadLizard 73]

90% is high but its certainly in the 70/30 Luck/Skill range now. Lets be realistic here:

 

Kickers and defenses are 100% total luck and anyone saying otherwise is full of it - lets get that out of the way right off the bat. As for the rest of it, well, in a redraft league it doesnt take much skill to draw the 1st or 2nd overall pick from the hat does it? Then, it doesnt take a lot of skill to select C Johnson or ADP, does it? Free agency does take some research but you also have to have the right waiver-wire pick too. You can plan all day to pick up Mike Wallace or Dwayne Bowe but if a team with just one more loss than you picks ahead of you then your "skill" just went to waste, didnt it? Trades also take some good research but at the end of the day, the guys you gave away might blow up or might suck. Just like the guys you received in the trade. Still lots of luck involved there.

 

IMO, limited-keeper dynasty leagues are where perhaps a little more planning and skill are involved. Who to keep, who to cut, who to trade, etc, etc. Even then...there is no telling if you made the right cuts or keeps until midway through the season. Theres that luck thing again. You cant skill your way out of injuries, players being tackled at the 1 yard line, a holding penalty bringing a TD back, tipped passes, or any other of the zillion things that can and do go wrong.

 

I think we can summarize it like this: Fantasy football or any other "gambling" type of system is really 100% luck. However, you can increase your odds of success with some planning, trades, and crafty waiver-wire pickups. Not taking away from the egos of the perennial fantasy winners. You guys are pros, no doubt. PHD's for sure. You are also a little luckier than some of the other guys in your league. Lets leave it at that.

[TV's Frank 0]

I don't know about 90%, but Fantasy Football certainly hinges more on luck than any other fantasy game because of the short season. One or two bad weeks and one big injury can kill your season. So can a tough schedule. I put up the third-highest points total in my league last week, and took a loss that bumped me down to third place. The guy who passed me in the standings put up almost 80 fewer points than I did, and won. I have a better team that has consistently scored more points all year, but I've also had more points scored against me than anyone else in the league. Nothing skillful about that. Just luck of the schedule draw.

 

Over the course of a baseball or basketball season, that kinda blind luck tends to even out. But in football, not so much.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

I'll go 65 skill / 35 luck on average.

 

There's a reason some people are perennial contenders and other sheep who blindly follow Mathew Berry's advice merely contribute to the bankroll.

 

Although, sometimes the balance shifts and luck can kill you (your top 5 draft picks get IR'd, you happen to play the weekly high scorer, etc) or take you to the promised land (Your opponents players get injured in-game, QB kneel downs change an L to a W, etc).

 

But skill goes quite a bit of ways -- handcuffing when appropriate, playing matchups (ex. Goodson vs TB & Ajirotutu vs HOU), monitoring WR targets as forward indicators for acquisitions, not starting WRs who have sat out the majority of the season ,etc.

[RoadLizard 73]

 

But skill goes quite a bit of ways -- handcuffing when appropriate, playing matchups (ex. Goodson vs TB & Ajirotutu vs HOU), monitoring WR targets as forward indicators for acquisitions, not starting WRs who have sat out the majority of the season ,etc.

 

Oh sure - free agent pickups are probably the BIGGEST thing you can do to help you go all the way. Everyone makes a big deal out of the draft but in reality its almost all luck or by the book. Smart free agent pickups on the other hand do require some research and quick-trigger pulling. If anything, maybe "skill" isnt the right word here. I think "efficiency" might be a better word. Everyone knows and reads the same websites for news and tidbits about players. However, some guys read them more frequently than others. Some guys do MORE research than others. Some guys are faster when it comes to player moves. This is certainly something you CAN control and the top owners usually do. The "Matthew Barry" crowd probably dont sign any players all year or are very slow to react to "hot" players being available.

 

The internet and information availability has changed fantasy football forever. Its easier now to win and harder to lose. Thats what gets frustrating for dedicated owners like many guys here. We put more effort into it than other guys but they seem to have just as much of a chance to win as we do. It wasnt like that years ago.

 

Lets replace "skill" with "effort" and "speed", shall we?

[msudavedawg 5]

True statement - just that if you do the research, draft well, mine the WW wisely, your luck is much more likely to pay off!

 

Can still do everything right and lose in the finals because the other team blows up that week. Have been on both sides of that coin.

[Law 220]

I think that skill can guarantee a pretty decent overall winning percentage but winning the super bowl without a bit of luck is pretty rare.

 

 

This.

 

EVERY year in EVERY league, I am competitive. And by competitive I mean top four. This year I am #2, #2, and #4. In 8 years and in some 30 leagues, I've missed the playoffs twice! I'm sorry, but that is NOT luck!

 

Now, actually winning it gets harder because even a better team can lose when some jackwagon goes off for three TDs!

 

In 30 leagues and 28 playoff appearances, I think I've won about 10 of those. So that's about a 30% win rate in 10 and 12 team leagues. Again, do the math, that is NOT luck.

[murf74 461]

the 2 top records in my league.....have the 2 lowest points against.

 

How much skill did it take them to have that advantage.

 

the 2 bottom records in the league...you guessed it have the 2nd and 3rd highest points against.

 

Does that make them bad players?

 

Nope it makes them unlucky and the others lucky.

 

Let's look at this week's luck. I had Rivers, Chris Johnson and Vjax. All very solid starts.....I get a combined, what 9 pts from them? Would anyone have benched these guys? Heck no. Tell me that my opponenent didn't get lucky playing me this week?

 

or was he showing off great talent in only beating my by 2.5 pts? Oh, by the way you guessed again the lucky opponent has least pts against.

[CornKobb 48]

I think that skill can guarantee a pretty decent overall winning percentage but winning the super bowl without a bit of luck is pretty rare.

 

Well said .....end of thread.

[Saints1 4]

Just a bit of my story. Battling for last playoff spot with a team. Tied record less than 20 point difference total for year. Last 3 weeks he plays 7, and 9th place team and me. I play 2nd, 3rd place teams (both are 1,2 in points scored) and him. He beats the 7th place team last night when I all I need for him to lose is Fitz getting 3 pts in the second half with PPR scoring. I call that rotten luck for me.

[southcarolina 166]

Hypothetical scenario :

 

Team A scores 1500 pts., 7-6 record

 

Team B scores 1200 pts. but has a 10-3 record.

 

Luck in matchups is a big part of it. Maybe not 90%, but Team B sure was lucky.

 

 

This is happening in my league. The team that is in first place is 11-1, but is only the 5th highest scoring team. And drafted a kicker and TWO defenses in the first six rounds. So dont tell me it isnt luck.

[Chronic Husker 85]

MDC is right. Any of you that claim ff is 90% luck suck at fantasy football. I won't bore you by proclaiming I'm the best ff player out there - because I'm not. But there are a lot of things you can do to improve your chances of winning. Study your scoring rules. Mock drafts can help immensely. Understand coaching, ie. Mike Martz is going to throw the ball. Defense is important. Kickers are important. Offensive lines are important. Playoff schedules are important. Depth at RB is important. Sleepers (especially at WR) are important. Knowing your waiver rules and how to exploit them is important. Sure, everyone has their own "bad beat" story and guys like Gore go out for the season. Everyone is dealt bad breaks. If you have a focking clue what you're doing, you prepare for that stuff by spending an extra early round pick on RB and working your waiver wire.

 

Jackasses like FlaHawker lose year in and year out and to comfort themselves pretend ff is like pulling a lever on a slot machine.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

the 2 top records in my league.....have the 2 lowest points against.

 

How much skill did it take them to have that advantage.

 

the 2 bottom records in the league...you guessed it have the 2nd and 3rd highest points against.

 

Does that make them bad players?

 

Nope it makes them unlucky and the others lucky.

 

Let's look at this week's luck. I had Rivers, Chris Johnson and Vjax. All very solid starts.....I get a combined, what 9 pts from them? Would anyone have benched these guys? Heck no. Tell me that my opponenent didn't get lucky playing me this week?

 

or was he showing off great talent in only beating my by 2.5 pts? Oh, by the way you guessed again the lucky opponent has least pts against.

 

Your opponent didn't get lucky.

 

You started VJax.

 

That loss is on you.

 

edit: Although, I don't know who your other options were, so maybe you had no choice. Alls I'm sayin' is that my rule of thumb is that any guy coming off a significant layoff due to holdout or serious injury -- usually he gets a one week probation period at a minimum for me to see where he's at wrt his performance. It's like when Portis was coming back from having his frickin' groin ripped from his bone -- Cats were all starting him expecting solid numbers... who does that??? "Unlucky" teams do that, I guess

[IGotWorms 3,310]

MDC is right. Any of you that claim ff is 90% luck suck at fantasy football. I won't bore you by proclaiming I'm the best ff player out there - because I'm not. But there are a lot of things you can do to improve your chances of winning. Study your scoring rules. Mock drafts can help immensely. Understand coaching, ie. Mike Martz is going to throw the ball. Defense is important. Kickers are important. Offensive lines are important. Playoff schedules are important. Depth at RB is important. Sleepers (especially at WR) are important. Knowing your waiver rules and how to exploit them is important. Sure, everyone has their own "bad beat" story and guys like Gore go out for the season. Everyone is dealt bad breaks. If you have a focking clue what you're doing, you prepare for that stuff by spending an extra early round pick on RB and working your waiver wire.

 

Jackasses like FlaHawker lose year in and year out and to comfort themselves pretend ff is like pulling a lever on a slot machine.

 

No sh!t, but it's still about 40-50% luck.

[Chronic Husker 85]

No sh!t, but it's still about 40-50% luck.

How can you say no sh!t, but it's still half luck?

 

 

My buddy is in three footballgays leagues and he's in first place in all of them. Is that luck? Luck is maybe 20%. More likely about 10%. There are people that make a living playing ff. Year in, year out. I guess they're just lucky half the time.

 

[jerryskids 5,191]

MDC is right. Any of you that claim ff is 90% luck suck at fantasy football. I won't bore you by proclaiming I'm the best ff player out there - because I'm not. But there are a lot of things you can do to improve your chances of winning. Study your scoring rules. Mock drafts can help immensely. Understand coaching, ie. Mike Martz is going to throw the ball. Defense is important. Kickers are important. Offensive lines are important. Playoff schedules are important. Depth at RB is important. Sleepers (especially at WR) are important. Knowing your waiver rules and how to exploit them is important. Sure, everyone has their own "bad beat" story and guys like Gore go out for the season. Everyone is dealt bad breaks. If you have a focking clue what you're doing, you prepare for that stuff by spending an extra early round pick on RB and working your waiver wire.

 

Jackasses like FlaHawker lose year in and year out and to comfort themselves pretend ff is like pulling a lever on a slot machine.

Agreed. If you put in a lot of work, you can become a master at it.

[Chronic Husker 85]

Agreed. If you put in a lot of work, you can become a master at it.

I saw you posted and thought, "Oh, fock. jk has some contrarian nonsense to post."

 

 

Documentary channel has shown Word Wars a couple times recently. You tell me you saw that one?

[jerryskids 5,191]

I saw you posted and thought, "Oh, fock. jk has some contrarian nonsense to post."

 

 

Documentary channel has shown Word Wars a couple times recently. You tell me you saw that one?

Haven't seen that one, I'll have to watch it though. I play a pretty mean game of scrabble, by amateur standards anyway.

 

To end this brief hijack and tie this back onto topic, I'm fascinated by the question of luck in FF because I wonder: if a person could perfectly access, process, and act on all information, what percentage of the time would they win? You could argue that it can never be 100% because rules are in place which prohibit perfection (draft orders, waiver orders) as well as the non-zero skill of your opponents. Whatever that number is, you could further argue that any performance under it is not "bad luck," but rather unattained skill.

[IGotWorms 3,310]

How can you say no sh!t, but it's still half luck?

 

 

My buddy is in three footballgays leagues and he's in first place in all of them. Is that luck? Luck is maybe 20%. More likely about 10%. There are people that make a living playing ff. Year in, year out. I guess they're just lucky half the time.

 

 

I'm saying that there is a lot of skill involved, but at the same time a lot of it comes down to luck. Yes you can draft well and work the waiver wire well, but if you get screwed by enough injuries (especially in-game injuries that give you a goose-egg), well that's just tough sh!t. You can also plan for the playoffs by figuring out who is going to have the choice matchups early on and targeting those players well before other people are considering weeks 14-16, but then again maybe those players you targeted get hurt before the fantasy playoffs, or maybe their quarterback gets hurt and nobody can feed them the damn ball, or maybe they just sh!t the bed despite great matchups, or maybe your opponent starts a couple guys who inexplicably go off that week.

 

Obviously skill has a lot to do with because there are people that do well in FF every year. I'm just saying that when you have a number of skilled ff players in a league, it is ultimately luck that is going to determine which one of those skilled guys comes away with the ff trophy.

[stonewall 647]

Chance favors the prepared and informed owner.

 

 

 

Bottomline.

[WR Guru 31]

After many years and countless hours at this pursuit, I have settled on a 50/50 split between luck and skill (give or take 10% either direction), and I cant' be convinced otherwise.

 

Amen.

 

I've played this game for 18 years in the same competitive league (14 team), made the playoffs most of the time, won 4 titles, and there is no doubt in my mind that it is at least 50% luck. Of course, the primary luck factor is schedule, over which you have absolutely no control. You can make all the brilliant player moves you want, if you draw a brutal schedule, it's going to be a tough year. On the other hand, you can make all kinds of mistakes and still have a very good year if you draw a favorable schedule.

 

Besides schedule, there are just so many variables throughout the course of a season that can go for you or against you at any moment. I don't care how much of a genius you think you are, there is only so much that you can anticipate. Yes, you can mitigate the forces of luck to a degree by doing your homework, but at the end of the day, ALOT comes down to who is getting the breaks and who isn't.

[chroniciguana 13]

The Internal Revenue Service has ruled that Fantasy Football is a game of skill. Also, the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 exempts Fantasy Football, defined in some incredibly tortured language as;

 

"(Any contest that) has an outcome that reflects the relative knowledge of the participants, or their skill at physical reaction or physical manipulation (but not chance), and, in the case of a fantasy or simulation sports game, has an outcome that is determined predominantly by accumulated statistical results of sporting events, including any non-participant's individual performances in such sporting events..."

 

Who here is going to argue with the IRS and Congress? Once you have used your "relative knowledge" and your "accumulated statistical results" to draft a team and set a lineup, it's pretty fair to say luck kicks in once the games begin.

[Melissa Stark 1]

While there is knowledge involved and stats to back them up. The luck still comes down to injuries and the aweful bye-week fill-ins.

Anyone here forsee Randy Moss's current season FF disaster and multiple teams he is on this year?

Those 3rd and 4th tier Wr's you need to start on byes, not an exact science on which one might have a great week and when to start those type players.

 

I'll go with more 50/50 split.

[RoadLizard 73]

I still dont think the word "skill" fits here. A skill is like knowing how to sew or weld. I think preparation and research is what you really "do" when you play FF. There is no skill in hitting websites and watching Sportscenter. Those that are quick on picking up hot players reap the benefits. Just saying.

 

LOTS of luck here - despite what the "Ive won 7 titles in 12 years" crowd says.

[Portis26 0]

H2H is largely luck of weekly match ups

Total points leagues need a better skill set to be successful

[chroniciguana 13]

A decision to start Gore over Westbrook, for instance, was likely based on knowledge and the ability to understand statistics. Skill. The guy who blindly started Westbrook over Gore clearly had no knowledge and even less ability to understand statistics. He was lucky.

 

Then there is the guy who charted Gore's injury history and deduced that the odds pointed to the Niners' RB getting hurt in that particular game. He starts Westbrook. Luck (lots of it) that was assisted by a little knowledge and an ability to understand statistics.

 

If someone had started a thread last week proclaiming Westbrook the sleeper of the week (based on a statistical analysis), the poster would have been ridiculed. Would the same person be proclaimed a genius on Tuesday? Or just lucky?

 

1. I'm starting Gore because my knowledge of the game and history tell me he's the best option. Skill, but unlucky.

 

2. I'm starting Westbrook and I have no idea why. No skill, all luck.

 

3. I'm starting Westbrook because knowledge and history tell me Gore is due to get injured. Some skill, some luck.

 

In the final analysis, it comes down to an educated hunch combined with a hefty dose of luck.

[posty 2,296]

LOL @ all of the people trying to prove that fantasy football is not 100% luck...

[MDC 5,890]

LOL @ all of the people trying to prove that fantasy football is not 100% luck...

 

It's only "luck" because you suck at it.

[posty 2,296]

It's only "luck" because you suck at it.

 

10-2 in my local league... Still all luck...

[MDC 5,890]

10-2 in my local league... Still all luck...

 

You should try picking names randomly out of a hat in your next draft.

 

Maybe you'll win it all.