Denver +3.5 at home. How good can they be?

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Marvin Lewis is just a terrible HC.

 

coaches scared and coaches to not lose and always loses.

 

I don't think he has changed.

6-0 has earned them the benefit of the doubt until further notice. Ill evaluate further in 4 weeks.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Balanced books are an industry myth. In an ideal world oddsmakers create pointspreads that drive perfectly balanced action with infinite volume simply collecting the juice for profit. This model works perfectly in a vacuum but in the real world bookmakers rely on their sharper customers to help shape, steer, and guide markets to the appropriate number for maximizing profit.[\quote]

 

http://www.toddstake.com/2015/10/23/truth-about-sharp-money/

What does he know though, he is only Caeser's Senior Race and Sports analyst.

 

F'ing mobile....quote didn't work right.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Balanced books are an industry myth. In an ideal world oddsmakers create pointspreads that drive perfectly balanced action with infinite volume simply collecting the juice for profit. This model works perfectly in a vacuum but in the real world bookmakers rely on their sharper customers to help shape, steer, and guide markets to the appropriate number for maximizing profit.[\quote]

 

http://www.toddstake.com/2015/10/23/truth-about-sharp-money/

What does he know though, he is only Caeser's Senior Race and Sports analyst.

 

F'ing mobile....quote didn't work right.

Thats a nice article. It shows that its not set in stone and some books can try to lean depending on their customers. Theres always exceptions to every rule. It still shows the practice of letting the bettors steer the line if they want to tweak to maximize profits wich is understandable in some places. Some of the more experienced guys can prob analyze it further.

 

Edit: You quickly dismissed my articles as rubbish but then expect your own example from a single guy to hold water. Kudos for bringing something to the table, a rarity for both sides of a debate here at the GC.

[Strike 4,052]

Balanced books are an industry myth. In an ideal world oddsmakers create pointspreads that drive perfectly balanced action with infinite volume simply collecting the juice for profit. This model works perfectly in a vacuum but in the real world bookmakers rely on their sharper customers to help shape, steer, and guide markets to the appropriate number for maximizing profit.[\quote]

 

http://www.toddstake.com/2015/10/23/truth-about-sharp-money/

What does he know though, he is only Caeser's Senior Race and Sports analyst.

 

F'ing mobile....quote didn't work right.

 

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html

 

But hey what does Mike Seba know. He's only the senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

 

[vuduchile 1,941]

 

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html

 

But hey what does Mike Seba know. He's only the senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

 

Yeah. I think this guy knows a thing or two about a thing or two.

 

From the article

 

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

 

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

 

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

 

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

[Sho Nuff 720]

 

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html

 

But hey what does Mike Seba know. He's only the senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

 

 

Well...he was at least. No info on his own Twitter since about 2009.

In 2008 started operating as a subsidiary of Cantor Gaming which went into liquidation as of 2010.

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=7923818

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=39984841

 

There is almost nothing recent on Seba in the last 5 years when you google him.

 

Its an interesting article...some of you are in that vacuum Fuhrman was talking about...real world seems to show a different story in what they do.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Thats a nice article. It shows that its not set in stone and some books can try to lean depending on their customers. Theres always exceptions to every rule. It still shows the practice of letting the bettors steer the line if they want to tweak to maximize profits wich is understandable in some places. Some of the more experienced guys can prob analyze it further.

 

Edit: You quickly dismissed my articles as rubbish but then expect your own example from a single guy to hold water. Kudos for bringing something to the table, a rarity for both sides of a debate here at the GC.

 

Well...I brought something from a guy in the industry rather than information pieces with no real authoritative person authoring them.

[MTSkiBum 1,602]

Sho Nuff is correct, many nfl games have 70% of the public or more on one side.

 

If they really did want 50/50 betting splits they have been doing a bad job at it.

[frank 2,160]

It's not the number of people on each side that is important, it is the amount of money.

[Meglamaniac 380]

Balanced books are an industry myth. In an ideal world oddsmakers create pointspreads that drive perfectly balanced action with infinite volume simply collecting the juice for profit. This model works perfectly in a vacuum but in the real world bookmakers rely on their sharper customers to help shape, steer, and guide markets to the appropriate number for maximizing profit.[\quote]

 

http://www.toddstake.com/2015/10/23/truth-about-sharp-money/

What does he know though, he is only Caeser's Senior Race and Sports analyst.

 

F'ing mobile....quote didn't work right.

It's a good read from a reputable guy so there may in fact be some truth to what you are expressing for large books but I can't see it being something that is done often, it's just too risky, more times than not even money is the goal, but I will admit that large books seems to be standing with thier 'smart money' players when evidence says it may be more profitable.

[vuduchile 1,941]

It's a good read from a reputable guy so there may in fact be some truth to what you are expressing for large books but I can't see it being something that is done often, it's just too risky, more times than not even money is the goal, but I will admit that large books seems to be standing with thier 'smart money' players when evidence says it may be more profitable.

They can afford to take those calculated risks because a single game loss won't kill them. Gamblers will always lose in the long run, and the casinos will continue to run their businesses based on that knowledge.

 

None of this changes the fact that they attempt to set odds to entice equal money on both sides. And, they will move the lines accordingly to try to get there. If the money on both sides never balances (it seldom does), the casino makes the call regarding their acceptable risk. They make that decision in some part, based on what the whales are doing.

 

A local bookie may be willing to accept a 3-5% swing in either direction, depending on how much action he has overall. But I believe he'll be laying off any more than that.

[Strike 4,052]

I don't care who you are playing. if you are PLUS 3.5 at home, you can't be considered a good team, can you?

 

 

They will be an underdog at home week 12 too.

 

 

 

[vuduchile 1,941]

This thread convinced me to take Denver and the under last night.

[Cruzer 1,993]

Holy Cow - didn't see that coming. Just goes to show - doesn't matter who your all world Qb is, if you get pressure on him he's just another regular Joe. And I don't mean Montana.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Thats how good they are.

[mighty_thor 115]

Surprised me too. I was not impressed with Green Bay game plan/adjustments. If you are getting pressured, you need to change your game plan. More screens, quicker passes, shorter routes. I just saw Green Bay trying and failing to do the same thing all game. Manning looked much much better this week. Curious to see how he looks next week or if this was just a short term bye week boost to his arm.

[iam90sbaby 2,143]

Surprised me too. I was not impressed with Green Bay game plan/adjustments. If you are getting pressured, you need to change your game plan. More screens, quicker passes, shorter routes. I just saw Green Bay trying and failing to do the same thing all game. Manning looked much much better this week. Curious to see how he looks next week or if this was just a short term bye week boost to his arm.

 

They did obviously you weren't paying attention. Denver's pass rush was getting to Rodgers so fast the screen didn't even have time to develop.

[IGotWorms 3,391]

Surprised me too. I was not impressed with Green Bay game plan/adjustments. If you are getting pressured, you need to change your game plan. More screens, quicker passes, shorter routes. I just saw Green Bay trying and failing to do the same thing all game. Manning looked much much better this week. Curious to see how he looks next week or if this was just a short term bye week boost to his arm.

Yeah I think McCarthy was wildly outdone in this game. They've got a lot of weapons to work with and you're telling me they couldn't come up with a single effective adjustment?

[Kanil 520]

Surprised me too. I was not impressed with Green Bay game plan/adjustments. If you are getting pressured, you need to change your game plan. More screens, quicker passes, shorter routes. I just saw Green Bay trying and failing to do the same thing all game. Manning looked much much better this week. Curious to see how he looks next week or if this was just a short term bye week boost to his arm.

I want to say I saw 4 or 5 screen passes get blown up throughout the night. What they should have done was run up the middle more. That's where Denver's Achilles heal is on D.

 

-Jake

[KSB2424 3,086]

It's raining like hell in Charlotte right now and tonight. It rained all day yesterday too. It's gonna be a muddy mess on MNF.

 

Last I saw was Carolina -5 and o/u 45.

 

I'm sorta leaning 'under' with the weather.

[vuduchile 1,941]

Hmm. Carolina was -7 on Sat. Now -6 at Bovada

 

O/U is at 46 on that site.

 

I like Panthers and the under.

[mighty_thor 115]

 

They did obviously you weren't paying attention. Denver's pass rush was getting to Rodgers so fast the screen didn't even have time to develop.

I admit I was watching the world series and switching over to the Packers game. But what I saw was Rodgers going back to pass and looking downfield and then having his pocket collapse. I was not seeing any creativity to spring guys for quick passes.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Packers have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Exposed.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Packers have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Exposed.

St Louis is 4-3.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

St Louis is 4-3.

I stand corrected. Still exposed. McCarthy has no clue.

[Sho Nuff 720]

I stand corrected. Still exposed. McCarthy has no clue.

Yeah...you have zero clue about the sport...better just keep quiet rather than continuing to expose your ignorance.

[Djgb13 2,338]

Deniers defense combined with the drops from Rodgers receivers last night made for a very poor outing for Green Bay. But Denvers defense is the real deal. I think it's what's been helping them stay undefeated. Not Peyton manning this year

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Yeah...you have zero clue about the sport...better just keep quiet rather than continuing to expose your ignorance.

Unlike you Betty Crocker, I played the game. You never had the makings of a varsity athlete.

[jerryskids 5,304]

Deniers defense combined with the drops from Rodgers receivers last night made for a very poor outing for Green Bay. But Denvers defense is the real deal. I think it's what's been helping them stay undefeated. Not Peyton manning this year

Ya think?

[Sho Nuff 720]

Unlike you Betty Crocker, I played the game. You never had the makings of a varsity athlete.

As usual, you run your mouth acting like you were something...without having any clue about what you are talking.

 

Polk High misses you too I'm sure.

[Mile High Drunk 13]

Ya think?

It is analysis like that, that makes this site better than every other.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

As usual, you run your mouth acting like you were something...without having any clue about what you are talking.

 

Polk High misses you too I'm sure.

Those that can, do........now get my slippers.

[Djgb13 2,338]

It is analysis like that, that makes this site better than every other.

I think the people here have just as good analysis as the so called "experts" on ESPN. Hell sometimes I think it's better here than ESPN.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Those that can, do........now get my slippers.

Thanks Al...you are the greatest ever. Don't let anyone tell you different. Enjoy your participation trophies.

[iam90sbaby 2,143]

I bet if someone can dig up the Chiefs Patriots ingame thread from last year (I tried the search engine blows) I am pretty sure Magnificent Bastard was one of the ones saying "put a fork in them"

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Mike McCarthy has had a HOF QB every year he has been a head coach. He currently has won one super bowl. Joe Gibbbs never had a HOF QB, he won 3 Super Bowls. Bill Parcells, Tom Flores and Tom Couglin have never had a HOF QB either and they each won two. Mike McCarthy is overrated and needs to be on the hot seat.

[iam90sbaby 2,143]

Different circumatances different results. Id hate to see GB without McCarthy. Dont forget McCarthy "built" Rodgers. He wanted him when he was in SF and he fell to him in GB.

 

He won a SB without a run game at all. This is the price you pay when you are a strictly BPA team. You are good every year but never dominate. You win some you lose some. McCarthy and Thompson have built and an every year contender. That was a bad plan and it happens sometimes. You are calling for a guys job basically who has been great since he has been HC. Give me a break. Great coach, great team they just had a bad game. McCarthy is the most underrated coachs in my opinion.

 

By the way you really don't think Eli is going to be in the HOF? I do

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Different circumatances different results. Id hate to see GB without McCarthy. Dont forget McCarthy "built" Rodgers. He wanted him when he was in SF and he fell to him in GB.

 

He won a SB without a run game at all. This is the price you pay when you are a strictly BPA team. You are good every year but never dominate. You win some you lose some. McCarthy and Thompson have built and an every year contender. That was a bad plan and it happens sometimes. You are calling for a guys job basically who has been great since he has been HC. Give me a break. Great coach, great team they just had a bad game. McCarthy is the most underrated coachs in my opinion.

 

By the way you really don't think Eli is going to be in the HOF? I do

He has lost at least three times in the playoffs with the better QB and better team. He is the biggest reason the Pack lost to Seattle last year. Sorry, one or twice is one thing. This is a pattern now. It's not one game. Product of his QB and a horrible division during his tenure.

[Sho Nuff 720]

He has lost at least three times in the playoffs with the better QB and better team. He is the biggest reason the Pack lost to Seattle last year. Sorry, one or twice is one thing. This is a pattern now. It's not one game. Product of his QB and a horrible division during his tenure.

McCarthy is the biggest reason they lost?

If you had any credibility, it will uld be gone.

Just more proof that you don't understand the game.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

McCarthy is the biggest reason they lost?

If you had any credibility, it will uld be gone.

Just more proof that you don't understand the game.

The Seattle game? Absolutely. Tell me who was the bigger culprit.