So, how likely do you think it is that elliot has a big first year?

[cavern 70]

i'm just wondering the general opinion of the board. in dynasty it seems a natural that people will be trading up to get him. however, those guys that seemingly "can't miss" don't always pan out. i can think of ryan mathews and trent richardson as recent players i saw people making big moves to draft in dynasty that either disappointed in year one (or the entire career)

[Frozenbeernuts 2,423]

A guy in my league who's 1st running backs never bust, he took Zeke in the 1st. So yeah he is probably going to be very good. You saw what Morris was able to do. He will be very good.

[cavern 70]

morris actually worries me a bit. he's a proven nfl runningback that is running well right now. no doubt in my mind that zeke gets plugged in immediately with the starters when he's well, but, if he does not come out hot, i could see them giving morris alot of work.

 

A guy in my league who's 1st running backs never bust, he took Zeke in the 1st. So yeah he is probably going to be very good. You saw what Morris was able to do. He will be very good.

[jimaveli 119]

Doug Martin had about half of a really elite season in his first year. And that Tampa team was just about terrible. However, I remember very clearly Martin having an unreasonably bad game in week 15 and getting me eliminated in the playoffs that year.

 

This Cowboy team is an RB's dream. If Zeke is healthy, he's gonna be right around a top 5 rb for the season. At this point, I'm mildly concerned about making that health assumption and picking him in the first round. I don't necessarily love the Cowboys and their history of handling some players early. Ie: Dez had notable conditioning/'playing too hard' issues early on and he had to come out of games a lot. If that happens with Zeke, Morris could eat.

 

So...let's say Zeke disappoints slightly in the first year because of injuries and/or lack of role safety and then shows up at some point in his rookie deal and plays great.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

I'm always hesitant to draft rookie RBs because of the rookie wall, which hits right as you're gearing up for playoffs.

 

I think my move is to get Alfred Morris instead.

[jdon 28]

I expect him to look nice and perform very well, especially in ypc, what I worry about is him breaking down as the year goes on and how Dallas deals with him.

There is no reason to lower him out of the first round rankings, however there are a lot of reasons to go a different route with your first pick... basically I like him after the 6th pick but not so much before... and I think he offers more risk than most people.

[Kent 228]

I'm always hesitant to draft rookie RBs because of the rookie wall, which hits right as you're gearing up for playoffs.

 

I think my move is to get Alfred Morris instead.

Don't waste a pick on Morris. If you don't get Zeke don't take any of them.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Don't waste a pick on Morris. If you don't get Zeke don't take any of them.

Why?

[oldtimer 84]

The only worry I have with Zeke is the Cowboys trying to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall and giving him plenty of rest during the season. They have a short window and I don't buy the hype that they are going to give him 320 or more carries during the regular season. They will want him fresh for the playoffs, should they make it. The plus side is the Cowboys should be in some close games, meaning they won't have the opportunity to pull him for Morris late in games. If they do build leads though, I highly suspect they rest Elliott as often as possible.

 

I still have Gurley ranked over Elliott in my redraft rankings. Long term, I want Elliott. This year, I'm probably taking Gurley over him, but if Elliott looks great in the preseason, that could change.

[Kent 228]

Why?

Because he's slow and mediocre. Use a late rounder on someone with much bigger upside.

[Kent 228]

The only worry I have with Zeke is the Cowboys trying to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall and giving him plenty of rest during the season. They have a short window and I don't buy the hype that they are going to give him 320 or more carries during the regular season. They will want him fresh for the playoffs, should they make it. The plus side is the Cowboys should be in some close games, meaning they won't have the opportunity to pull him for Morris late in games. If they do build leads though, I highly suspect they rest Elliott as often as possible.

 

I still have Gurley ranked over Elliott in my redraft rankings. Long term, I want Elliott. This year, I'm probably taking Gurley over him, but if Elliott looks great in the preseason, that could change.

Playoffs?!?! /JimMora

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Because he's slow and mediocre. Use a late rounder on someone with much bigger upside.

No offense, but slow and mediocre behind that line is still tremendous upside. You saw the production they got last year from the crap they started with a big portion of their offense missing. He still has the ability to make a cut and hit the hole. If he only gets what's blocked he will be an excellent value of he were to find himself starting due to injury. I can't think of many with that much more upside where he is going honestly.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

Because he's slow and mediocre. Use a late rounder on someone with much bigger upside.

I read Morris is running angry

[Kent 228]

No offense, but slow and mediocre behind that line is still tremendous upside. You saw the production they got last year from the crap they started with a big portion of their offense missing. He still has the ability to make a cut and hit the hole. If he only gets what's blocked he will be an excellent value of he were to find himself starting due to injury. I can't think of many with that much more upside where he is going honestly.

You're believing your pre season eyes. The holes may be there but Morris is slow and afraid to fumble. He's a plodder. There are much better late upside picks. Holes in the NFL close quickly. DMC has blazing speed so the line helps a guy like him. It will be wasted on Alf. I'd take Dmc before Alf. That may be the only value.

[weepaws 3,410]

Number one Rb going into this season and should be drafted as so.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

You're believing your pre season eyes. The holes may be there but Morris is slow and afraid to fumble. He's a plodder. There are much better late upside picks. Holes in the NFL close quickly. DMC has blazing speed so the line helps a guy like him. It will be wasted on Alf. I'd take Dmc before Alf. That may be the only value.

He's been in the league for 4 years, I have seen him at least a couple times outside this preseason. Sure his YPC has gone down, but it was better than Jones last year. He's never been a speed guy, or anything close to a speed guy for that matter. You put him behind that line and he's still a 1200 yard back in my opinion... it's really not even a tough call for me.

[montana 89]

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=456688&do=findComment&comment=5741726

 

Kinda goes hand in hand.

[Gepetto 1,467]

Terrell Davis said during the game telecast that Alfred Morris looks like he wants to be the starter.

[Kent 228]

He's been in the league for 4 years, I have seen him at least a couple times outside this preseason. Sure his YPC has gone down, but it was better than Jones last year. He's never been a speed guy, or anything close to a speed guy for that matter. You put him behind that line and he's still a 1200 yard back in my opinion... it's really not even a tough call for me.

I've seen every touch he's ever had in the NFL. You've seen him a couple times. But what do I know. Proceed.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I've seen every touch he's ever had in the NFL. You've seen him a couple times. But what do I know. Proceed.

 

...you need to know that was sarcasm. The "my team" homers kill me on this site. You understand that because of luxuries like TV and Internet that we all get to watch the same thing? "I've watched every game" yet you've never seen him play behind the Dallas line. You are arguing against picking a guy that's a pure roll of the dice. Current ADP of 13.05...that's a strange type of player to take a stand against.

 

 

I'm not sure what Alf has done to you and your family, but you should let it go.

[Kent 228]

...you need to know that was sarcasm. The "my team" homers kill me on this site. You understand that because of luxuries like TV and Internet that we all get to watch the same thing? "I've watched every game" yet you've never seen him play behind the Dallas line. You are arguing against picking a guy that's a pure roll of the dice. Current ADP of 13.05...that's a strange type of player to take a stand against.

 

 

I'm not sure what Alf has done to you and your family, but you should let it go.

Trying to help the board. Sorry.

[giraldi02 476]

Barring a trade of Morris himself, there's no way in hell DMC is ahead of Alf on the depth chart Week 1.

[R8RMick 242]

Elliott is the top RB on my board, I'm more worried about that hammy than anything.

[polecatt 488]

I have him ranked as the 3rd RB behind Gurley and AP. If he's healthy I think he's almost a lock to be a mid level RB1 at worst and if he blows up he could easily be the top RB. Fair chance that happens.

[Eagles Green 34]

I just can't put a rookie RB as the #1 on my list. I'll take DJohnson and Gurley

[sirensong 111]

morris is running with a lot of confidence, and dunbar just got his med clearance yesterday. the first will cut into e2's rushing yards, and the second will likely cut into his receiving totals. i haven't done a rigorous quantitative analysis, but it seems unlikely for him to break 2K combined yards. i'm thinking more like 1300/400 with maybe 12-15 combined TDs.

 

if morris goes down, all bets are off.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

...you need to know that was sarcasm. The "my team" homers kill me on this site. You understand that because of luxuries like TV and Internet that we all get to watch the same thing? "I've watched every game" yet you've never seen him play behind the Dallas line. You are arguing against picking a guy that's a pure roll of the dice. Current ADP of 13.05...that's a strange type of player to take a stand against.

 

 

I'm not sure what Alf has done to you and your family, but you should let it go.

Exactly. He's basically a flier at his current ADP. You don't think he's likely produce? Fine, that's why he's a flier

[Kent 228]

Exactly. He's basically a flier at his current ADP. You don't think he's likely produce? Fine, that's why he's a flier

My point was, there are better fliers. Alf offers absolutely no upside. That's a bad flier. He's slow. He's fumble paranoid into ineffectiveness. It's a wasted flier.

[redsrback 30]

Personally i think people reach when picking rookies in the first and second round . Most of the time they dont produce well and why would you pass up a stud proven player in the NFL for somebody your hoping makes you look smart. Best RBs I have seen in Dallas in my 49 years, maybe Jerry wont screw this 1 up by over usage.

[Ray_T 794]

You're believing your pre season eyes. The holes may be there but Morris is slow and afraid to fumble. He's a plodder. There are much better late upside picks. Holes in the NFL close quickly. DMC has blazing speed so the line helps a guy like him. It will be wasted on Alf. I'd take Dmc before Alf. That may be the only value.

true.

 

a player with speed doesnt need to break tackles to be productive behind a line like that. He just needs to hit the hole hard and fast, and he will have 5-6 yards before he gets hit.

 

that being said, Morris is a good player to draft if DMC gets traded. and then, hes only valuable as a handcuff to Zeke.

[weepaws 3,410]

morris is running with a lot of confidence, and dunbar just got his med clearance yesterday. the first will cut into e2's rushing yards, and the second will likely cut into his receiving totals. i haven't done a rigorous quantitative analysis, but it seems unlikely for him to break 2K combined yards. i'm thinking more like 1300/400 with maybe 12-15 combined TDs.

 

if morris goes down, all bets are off.

 

Dunbar is now with the Colts I believe .

[weepaws 3,410]

Personally i think people reach when picking rookies in the first and second round . Most of the time they dont produce well and why would you pass up a stud proven player in the NFL for somebody your hoping makes you look smart. Best RBs I have seen in Dallas in my 49 years, maybe Jerry wont screw this 1 up by over usage.

Over usage is exactly why I have him ranked number one .

 

And they have a good Oline and a Qb that they really really need to protect .

 

Oh make no mistake about it he will be over used .

[polecatt 488]

Dunbar is now with the Colts I believe .

He's still in Dallas

[skinsrule05 30]

Over usage is exactly why I have him ranked number one .

 

And they have a good Oline and a Qb that they really really need to protect .

 

Oh make no mistake about it he will be over used .

 

Yeah, that is why I can't take him in the first. Rookie RBs typically die out towards the end of the year. Now we have a guy who will probably be used a lot. It is great for the start of the season. It is hard to take someone in the first that you know probably won't be there for you in the later part of the season and playoffs.

[weepaws 3,410]

He's still in Dallas

Yea your right I was thinking Turbin.

[weepaws 3,410]

Yeah, that is why I can't take him in the first. Rookie RBs typically die out towards the end of the year. Now we have a guy who will probably be used a lot. It is great for the start of the season. It is hard to take someone in the first that you know probably won't be there for you in the later part of the season and playoffs.

That's not a grantee .

 

I'm not going to rank him number one based on that.

 

Where would you take him ?

[skinsrule05 30]

That's not a grantee .

 

I'm not going to rank him number one based on that.

 

Where would you take him ?

 

Your right it is not a guarantee but based on rookie RB history there is a very good chance of it. That chance brings up too big a risk for me to take him in the first round.

 

If things stay the same as they are now I wouldn't draft him. He is going in the 1st. I want more security from my first round pick. If he made it to the late 2nd I would think about it assuming I was comfortable with my first round pick.

 

I don't know the answer to this but who was the last rookie RB drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts that performed well at the end of the season?

[Maulers1973 117]

My point was, there are better fliers. Alf offers absolutely no upside. That's a bad flier. He's slow. He's fumble paranoid into ineffectiveness. It's a wasted flier.

 

There was a lot of rookie hype about Melvin Gordon last year too. Maybe not this much, but there was a lot. Danny Woodhead far out performed him, and I'm sure there were Chargers homers saying how bad Woodhead is.

 

Morris is a fine late round flyer especially if Zeke's hamstring thing lingers. Lots of healthy rookie RB's don't turn out. I'm supposed to believe a hurt one is going to outshine a proven guy. So what if he is a plodder. So was DMC and that kind of worked out behind this offensive line.

[DankNuggs 305]

My point was, there are better fliers. Alf offers absolutely no upside. That's a bad flier. He's slow. He's fumble paranoid into ineffectiveness. It's a wasted flier.

Washingtons Oline was a hot mess and no one could run behind it... Morris is a ZBS RB in the best ZBS system in the league. He is a rookie away from being an impact player. Its not a bad cuff at all.

[Smileseers 54]

 

I don't know the answer to this but who was the last rookie RB drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts that performed well at the end of the season?

Adrian Peterson 2007.

Mike Anderson in 2000.

Edgering James 1999.