DanMarino13 0 Posted August 17, 2018 2018 #1 overall pick has been a consensus RB Todd Gurley Gurley with an ADP around the Overall Pick #20 going into drafts last year and ended up being the Top Fantasy performer. Turns out he was quite the value and won owners a lot of leagues last year. Some of the stats on Gurley's 2017 season vs 2016 season - Increased Yards per carry from 3.2 in 2016 to 4.7 in 2017. - Increased receptions from 43 to 64. - Increased Total TD from 6 to 19 Some of the reasons I believe Gurley had a magical 2017 season - Team had much better QB and WR play - Team had an outstanding Defense - Team had one of the best records in the league and won their division with 11-5 record There is a current running RB with an ADP around Overal Pick #12 going into 2018 drafts that I believe could end up being this season's Top Fantasy performer... His name... Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings - Cook showed tremendous NFL skill set in the short sample of 4 games he played last season before suffering a torn ACL.will - Cook has shown so far this preseason and in camp that he is fully recovered from the injury. - His team will have better QB and WR play this season with the addition of Kirk Cousins and the emergence of Adam Thielan and Stephon Diggs - His team as an outstanding defense, giving him ample opportunites - Team will have one of the best records in the league, after going 13-3 last season and getting better and more healthy this season. Fantasy owners seem a little gun shy on Cook for these reasons. - returning from a major injury - short NFL track record - Latavius Murray still on team to steal carries/TDs from Cook Personally, I'm not concerned about those first two points and Cook is vastly more talented than Murray and the Vikings will realize it before they even break camp and feed Dalvin the rock all year long. My prediction for 2019 Top Five Fantasy Picks 1. RB Dalvin Cook 2. RB Saquan Barkley 3. RB Todd Gurley 4. WR Odell Beckham 5. WR Michael Thomas Both DJ and Bell will start to show their age while their teams give starts to rookie QBs, but both will still put up near Top 10 fantasy numbers if healthy. Bold Rookie Prediction: Browns RB Nick Chubb have 2nd best rookie RB season behind Barkley Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,515 Posted August 17, 2018 D J will be only 27. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted August 17, 2018 Zeke in a possible contract season Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike FF Today 611 Posted August 17, 2018 I like it. I had Cook ranked No.11 prior to last season and he's certainly in the mix for finishing as the top running back this season but I wouldn't bet on it given this is Cousins' first year with the team and I doubt they can perform at a high enough level to make Cook the overall No.1 RB... but I still like the prediction! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CornKobb 48 Posted August 17, 2018 David Johnson in last year of rookie contract. Fresh legs, offense runs through him with fitzgerald the only viable wr. check down city. Davante Adams is another i really like this year. Jordy gone, not worried about jimmy graham. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 17, 2018 DJ start to show his age? Wut? Nice post but this was kind of off the wall. Dudes a baby still on his rookie deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maulers1973 117 Posted August 17, 2018 Uh, 2019??? Really? I'm kind of focused on 2018. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted August 17, 2018 Uh, 2019??? Really? I'm kind of focused on 2018. I think the point is to predict which player will turn out to be great value, thus moving their adp for 2019 way up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 17, 2018 Derrick Henry will be a first round pick next seasons draft. Thats my big prediction for this years RB crop. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,578 Posted August 17, 2018 Derrick Henry will be a first round pick next seasons draft. Thats my big prediction for this years RB crop. I dont disagree exactly. But Henry seems to have been trendy last year and this year. I was high on him in dynasty leagues. But in a ppr? With Lewis ad the 3rd down back? Meh the ceiling seems low. He averaged 4.2 a carry last year with like 12 catches. Sure he should get carries but not sure if it will = big production. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 17, 2018 I dont disagree exactly. But Henry seems to have been trendy last year and this year. I was high on him in dynasty leagues. But in a ppr? With Lewis ad the 3rd down back? Meh the ceiling seems low. He averaged 4.2 a carry last year with like 12 catches. Sure he should get carries but not sure if it will = big production. He wasn’t the starter last year, Murray was. This is his year to shine, if he doesn’t, he may never have a chance to break out again. Lewis is injury prone and away from the sweet patriots embrace. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gpann101 32 Posted August 18, 2018 1)Zeke (Bo Scarborough turns fullback parting the sea every play) 2)Mixon ( will be competing with Zeke entire year for rushing title) 3)Beckham ( Barkley opens up alot more Odell to have a record breaking season) 4)David Johnson ( regresses in passing game via rookie qb however has career highs on the ground) 5)Josh Gordon ( yup..Gordon,will start the season with pedestrian numbers but once Mayfield takes over the qb position..you'll be getting "FLASHbacks" of Montana to Rice on a weekly basis!) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canadianfan 76 Posted August 18, 2018 No way Cook gets the touches to surpass any of the first four rbs and become next years number one...Coming off of an acl, he just won't get the touches...the Vikings are going to ease him in by sprinkling in Murray in a split to start the year. Beckham can't stay healthy and thomas doesn't get into the end zone enough to become number 1. The other two I like Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canadianfan 76 Posted August 18, 2018 Correction: to become top 5 worthy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 18, 2018 Beckham can't stay healthyThis is baseless. He was hurt last year, he was fine for 3 years prior. He doesnt deserve an injury prone label at all. I feel he is in for a huge season (as usual) if he plays at least 14gm. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,105 Posted August 18, 2018 Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake. Teams that had terrible coaches last year are: Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12 Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks. Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent. The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick. Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2. I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck. So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is: OBJ Allen Robinson Milton Mack TY Hilton OBJ is the guy I'd go with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Spec7ral 6 Posted August 18, 2018 for Christ's sake. Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel Wait, what?!? Surprised you didn't include Mularky in the first group, from an offensive standpoint I think he matches Hue's ineptness. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 405 Posted August 18, 2018 This is baseless. He was hurt last year, he was fine for 3 years prior. He doesnt deserve an injury prone label at all. I feel he is in for a huge season (as usual) if he plays at least 14gm. He missed the first few games of his rookie season with an injury and has been knicked up a bit at other times, but I agree, he shouldn't be labeled as injury prone Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted August 19, 2018 Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake. Teams that had terrible coaches last year are: Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12 Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks. Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent. The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick. Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2. I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck. So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is: OBJ Allen Robinson Milton Mack TY Hilton OBJ is the guy I'd go with. I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 19, 2018 I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage.Its actually surprising how many coaches create terrible situations, get fired, find a new team and them people are suddenly all over them like they are geniuses. I never understand it. I know sometimes any change is good but it gets ridiculous sometimes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted August 19, 2018 Its actually surprising how many coaches create terrible situations, get fired, find a new team and them people are suddenly all over them like they are geniuses. I never understand it. I know sometimes any change is good but it gets ridiculous sometimes. I never got a guy like Adam Gase, who has a career created because Peyton Manning was his qb. Like it was Gase who was the genius there... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,007 Posted August 19, 2018 Best values and/or drafted higher next year, in my opinion: David Johnson Davante Adams Marquise Goodwin Alex Collins Kenyon Drake Pat Mahomes Royce Freeman TY Hilton John Brown Josh Gordon (although he's being drafted kind of high this year with all his risk) Derrick Henry Marlon Mack Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,105 Posted August 19, 2018 I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage. I was giving Pagano the benefit of the doubt because the GM was a dumpster fire and the whole organization is pretty dysfunctional. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,653 Posted August 19, 2018 I was giving Pagano the benefit of the doubt because the GM was a dumpster fire and the whole organization is pretty dysfunctional. Yeah the GM was horrendous. I still put a lot of blame him for never making the line better. It was so baffling to see them draft crap at every position year after year and never even bother to throw darts at linemen in the draft Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seafoam1 1,883 Posted August 19, 2018 Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake. Teams that had terrible coaches last year are: Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12 Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks. Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent. The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick. Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2. I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck. So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is: OBJ Allen Robinson Milton Mack TY Hilton OBJ is the guy I'd go with. How is OBJ going to out-produce a #2 overall receiver ADP? By beating out Antonio Brown? And who is Milton Mack? The Saints 1987 5th round draft selection of a cornerback? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RaiderHaters Revenge 3,655 Posted August 19, 2018 Melvin Gordon will finish no 1 overall this year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 571 Posted August 19, 2018 I love Gordon's volume and involvement in the pass game, but I have a hard time believing a RB with a 3.8 ypc can be the number one overall. I'm thinking #6. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jimaveli 119 Posted August 19, 2018 Gordon is going to be at least slightly underrated his whole career it seems. And I love it for fantasy and I will keep on drafting him. If that oline ever plays even decently for a season, Gordon is going to have an absurd year. Top 3 for instance. The Chargers have a legacy for being snakebitten on oline. I am aware. But what if it comes together one time? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,578 Posted August 19, 2018 Melvin Gordon will finish no 1 overall this yearI hope. I have him dynasty. I honestly just dont think he is that elite of a talent. Ive watched a lot of his games. He is solid no doubt but he isnt as talented as the top backs. But yeah he gets a lot of work. They used ekeler in some games a bit and he did well. Not sure if they are looking to keep melvin fresh or what. I know they like ekeler a lot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RaiderHaters Revenge 3,655 Posted August 19, 2018 I love Gordon's volume and involvement in the pass game, but I have a hard time believing a RB with a 3.8 ypc can be the number one overall. I'm thinking #6. he finished no 7 in 2016 he finished no 5 in 2017 I project him at 16 td's, Chargers have a great defense, so I think he gets 20 carries and 3-4 catches a game, he will be right there in that 20ppg PPR range Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,105 Posted August 19, 2018 How is OBJ going to out-produce a #2 overall receiver ADP? By beating out Antonio Brown? And who is Milton Mack? The Saints 1987 5th round draft selection of a cornerback? https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp Obj's adp is behind DeAndre Hopkins and is 2.01. he sure as shìt qualifies for this discussion more than David Johnson who's already at 1.04. Also I'm a Saints fan and I'm developing dimensia. So yeah in my head I probably was confusing the name Marlon with Milton. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted August 19, 2018 https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp Obj's adp is behind DeAndre Hopkins and is 2.01. he sure as shìt qualifies for this discussion more than David Johnson who's already at 1.04. Also I'm a Saints fan and I'm developing dimensia. So yeah in my head I probably was confusing the name Marlon with Milton. I’d be thrilled with Obj in the 2nd and I’m even hoping he falls to me at pick 9. Few guys are locked into top 5 at their position if healthy and Obj is one of them imo. All I ever ask of my first pick is to not bust. Most of the time they do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites