The Hype Train - Killing fantasy owners once again

[oldtimer 84]

I think it's time we had a talk about the Hype Train.  It's always bad in the preseason, sometimes even beginning in simple off-season workouts.  It gets truly out of hand on this board during the end of August until around Week 3.  Unfortunately, it still happens and people seem to talk themselves into ridiculous notions. 

I just read through the older, preseason threads, on this Forum.  Wow.  Some examples are below:

• OJ Howard was worth a 5th round pick, possibly even a late 4th.  People were seriously arguing this.  A lot. 
• Dalvin Cook was a massive injury risk and not that good anyway.  Go read the threads.  (I was nearly run off the Forums for singing his praises)
• Montgomery was going to be a RB1, or at the absolute worst, a high-end RB2
• Singletary would be the "sleeper" of the fantasy season and "could" be a RB1
• Derrius Guice was going to be a RB1, or at worst, very close
• Jameis Winston would be a top 5 fantasy QB and the steal of the draft
• David Johnson was the 4th best RB in fantasy football (I posted he was an injury risk and got lit up by several people)
• Joe Mixon would be a top 5/6 fantasy RB this season with the new system and HC (never mind his offensive line was down 3 starters)
• Todd Gurley was still a high-end RB1 and would prove the doubters wrong
• LaVeon Bell would be a high end RB1 (even after missing a year and not having the Pitt line in front of him anymore)
• Miles Sanders would be a RB2 (ignoring Howard was there and the continual rbbc situation in Philly)
• Kerryon Johnson would break out this season, becoming a true RB1 (ignoring his injury history)
• Noah Fant would be a fantasy producer this season as a low end TE1, predictions even included a top 5 finish
• Antonio Brown would still finish as a top 5 fantasy WR (totally ignoring he's freaking nuts)
• OBJ would break records this season as Mayfield is so much better than Eli ever was. 
• Josh Gordon would be a WR2 because the Patriots have so few other options
• MVS & Allison could both finish as top 20 fantasy WR's
• D. Williams was not only a RB1, but a guy who would finish top 5
• Kenyon Drake was a fantasy sleeper and would be a high-end RB2
• Moncrief would be a great WR2 in Pittsburgh (ignoring he's failed quite a bit elsewhere)

These are actual posts on the main board.  Go read them.  These were ALL players who had a TON of hype, but no reason to believe in at all.  The preseason is all about hype.  There are more threads about how great OJ Howard, D. Williams, Montgomery, Winston, Brown and Cook than most anything else.  I'm posting this as an early warning for 2020.  STOP believing the hype.  Not everyone agreed with all the above, but in reading through the threads, darn near everyone on this Forum bought into the hype of at least a few of the above listed players and were burned.  Stop reading Forums during the preseason as there is always someone who pretends they know something (they don't) and will throw out outrageous claims hoping to build their Forum credibility, if that's a thing.  Of the players listed above, I own ONLY Cook in all my leagues but the one I just traded him in and in one league I own MVS.  That's it.  I stopped reading the Forum except to warn people against the hype train mentality that prevails each season here.  Next year, do yourself a favor and ignore what someone you don't even know is saying about a player.  Do your own research.  You'll be better for it. 

Props to a few posters here who agreed in the preseason and also warned others of the hype, and to simply ignore it.  I have yet to see the posts from the people who hyped up these folks step up and say they were wrong.  It's the internet, people just don't do that.  Take credit when correct, ignore it when you're wrong.  Those threads are all still available for all to read, and I would suggest you take some time to read them so you know who is full of crap and who actually watches and studies football. 

 

 

[polecatt 403]

29 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

• David Johnson was the 4th best RB in fantasy football (I posted he was an injury risk and got lit up by several people)

 

I said pretty much the same thing a couple of weeks ago and got lit up. Just like I did two years ago when I said to pump the brakes before anointing him the savior of fantasy football.

It's the same thing every year though man. Most people, myself included, get their imagination going on how many players will do. Players who switch teams, come back from injury, get a better supporting cast, etc. get hyped up a lot. I think it's mostly due to the importance of picking sleepers or players who will over perform. Then by week 3 or 4 it's a completely new outlook on most of them. It's as big a part of being a winner as any, knowing when to believe or ignore the hype.

[oldtimer 84]

11 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I said pretty much the same thing a couple of weeks ago and got lit up. Just like I did two years ago when I said to pump the brakes before anointing him the savior of fantasy football.

It's the same thing every year though man. Most people, myself included, get their imagination going on how many players will do. Players who switch teams, come back from injury, get a better supporting cast, etc. get hyped up a lot. I think it's mostly due to the importance of picking sleepers or players who will over perform. Then by week 3 or 4 it's a completely new outlook on most of them. It's as big a part of being a winner as any, knowing when to believe or ignore the hype.

I totally understand the hype surrounding a sleeper, which should be a very late round pick.  Those listed above were almost all 1st through 5th round selections.  Some of the arguments in the threads were hilarious.  I've also noticed some of those people are not currently posting here, but they will again next preseason. 

Like you, I posted he was an injury risk and had a number of people flat out slam me saying he wasn't.  I posted a link to his injury history.  Even though he hasn't missed a ton of games in his career, the fact he has been on the injury report a LOT should be concerning.  Apparently I was incorrect and he will be healthy all season. 

As you said, if you can ignore the hype and look for the facts, you're golden.  With so many newbies to fantasy football reading this board, I thought a warning was in order. 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

So we should all look into our personal crystal balls to see the future before draft day? I'm all for it

[stonewall 647]

Come on now, OldTimer....FF is quite the inexact science. Dozens of factors and variables. Discussing and getting excited about the FF possibilities of certain players in the preseason is part of what makes this pursuit of ours fun....at least for me.

Not to mention, EVERYONE hits some and  misses some. In fact, without even going back and digging through threads, I can remember a couple of players you whiffed on in the preseason.....but I consider that normal, even for someone that I consider to be pretty sound from a FF perspective.

[AxeElf 787]

Always keep in mind the nursery rhyme your nannies used to sing you to sleep...

Listen to the Elf,
    Trophy on the shelf.
Listen to the others,
    Go crying to your mothers.

[polecatt 403]

49 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

So we should all look into our personal crystal balls to see the future before draft day? I'm all for it

You mean you don't already?

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,520]

34 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Always keep in mind the nursery rhyme your nannies used to sing you to sleep...

Listen to the Elf,
    Trophy on the shelf.
Listen to the others,
    Go crying to your mothers.

The Keebler Elf?

[stonewall 647]

50 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Always keep in mind the nursery rhyme your nannies used to sing you to sleep...

Ah, yes, I remember:

If you listened to the Elf,

As opposed to yourself

In week 7 you fell flat,

Starting Coleman over Lat

[shutdown 40]

A lot of these seem obvious in hindsight but there were reasons for the hype or lack thereof

OJ Howard - There were reasons to think he would be unproductive in Arians offense, but the fact that the Pats were trying to trade for him indicate to me that the flaw is in the team utilizing him, not the player.

Dalvin Cook / Kerryon Johnson / David Johnson- You state that people were wrong to consider injury history with Cook, but wrong to ignore it with the Johnsons?  Both have been injured in the past, I agree it was wise to look past Cook's injury but I can't find fault in those that didn't consider that when drafting Johnson.

Montgomery / Singletary / Derrius Guice /Miles Sanders - Basically all unproven rookies.  Montgomery has a coach that wont run and the worst QB in the league.  Singletary has shown some good things but he was never going to be a lead back this year.  Sanders problems aren't Howard, he simply is not good at the craft of running the ball.  Guice had another injury and really no team around him anyway. 

Todd Gurley - He was drafted as a low RB1 for the most part.  Honestly I'm not sure how many RB's taken where he was being picked are substantially better.  Gurley is RB 8 in my league on PPG basis.  He producing about where he was drafted.

Noah Fant would be a fantasy producer this season as a low end TE1, predictions even included a top 5 finish - I never saw any of these and most mock drafts had him outside top 15 and none in the top 10.

Antonio Brown would still finish as a top 5 fantasy WR (totally ignoring he's freaking nuts) - So was Ocho Cinco and Terrell Owens and Randy Moss and all three had some good seasons after people felt they were nuts.

 

You definitely identified some things I see as hype, but some of the stuff you're taking credit for is just basically luck.   Cook could have been injurred.  Kerryon and DJ could have stayed healthy.  I don't see where there was any more data to suggest any one of those guys was more likely to be injured than not.  Mid round rookie RB's are always a guess and typically over drafted.  I'm not sure that's anything different about that than any other year.  As for Brown, I don't think anyone can claim to know how damaged mentally he was before the preseason.  The helmet thing gave you some indication, but nothing he did last year at Pitt, was just plain crazy.  Heck Emmanuel Sanders mailed it in a couple of weeks ago trying to get out of Denver.  They had to barter with him to play to improve his trade stock. 

Sometimes the hive hype is right and sometimes its not but to sit back in hindsight and think it was all obvious?  That's pretty easy to take credit for.

 

 

 

[American Chewy 98]

Little early for a victory lap on a lot of these, many of which are injury related.  If you avoid all injury risks you end up with a 5th place team. 

Its still realistic for 3 or 4 of those guys to be late season heros, carrying teams to titles.  Guys like OBJ, Bell, Gurley, Guice, Singletary, Sanders, D.Williams...

That said, it is important to make your own lists and projections and not overpay for projected breakouts/hype vs taking proven producers.

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

Don't even have to look at preseason hype. Last 10 years only about 46% of the players in the top two rounds got anywhere close to their previous success. The success rate is better in the next couple of tiers. 

 

 

 

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

21 minutes ago, FlyinHeadlock said:

Don't even have to look at preseason hype. Last 10 years only about 46% of the players in the top two rounds got anywhere close to their previous success. The success rate is better in the next couple of tiers. 

That's why in most seasons you can axually cash in a league even if you take a Kicker and a Defense in the first two rounds--as long as you hit on some players in the later rounds and employ sound team management during the season--something I'm trying to prove this season, although the jury is still out...

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

What is the objective of this thread?

[FlyinHeadlock 459]

I think it's be cautions of decent players in the last year of their contract. Could be traded maybe? That's my take away.

[weepaws 2,460]

19 minutes ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

What is the objective of this thread?

Did you read the title? 

[AxeElf 787]

20 minutes ago, TheUsualSuspect said:

What is the objective of this thread?

It is to ridicule the majority of fantasy football players by holding them to the impossible standard of not being as prescient as Axe Elf.

[stonewall 647]

42 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

..... not being as prescient myopic as Axe Elf.

 

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Some of this stuff is 20/20 hindsight and then also just patting yourself on the back.

That said, your overall point is well taken.

This is why in the last several years I have made my draft board in advance of the pre-season and resist the temptation to make big changes thereafter other than for injuries, trades or cuts. It’s worked out pretty well for me.

[NAn 39]

Yeah OT, there is a point about 'doing your own research and not buying into the hype', but overshadowed by 'look how right I was'.

Plus cherry picking just the misses...

Lamar, Murray, AJones, Chubb, Henry, Fournette, Godwin, Amari, Waller...names that were hyped on board and have performed good to great.

Examples of hype 'hits'.

To your point have to be able to sift thru the hype and do your own research as well.

But even then as has been said, we all hit and miss, none of us gets it all right.  The board in general is just a community of us hitting and missing.

All about maximizing the former and minimizing the latter.

[NAn 39]

8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Always keep in mind the nursery rhyme your nannies used to sing you to sleep...

Listen to the Elf,
    Trophy on the shelf.
Listen to the others,
    Go crying to your mothers.

Or the haiku:

Axe Elf guru? troll?

Axe him yourself, he'll tell you

In the third person

[Woble Eth 11]

So what your are saying is, there is an element of risk involved?   Get.  Out. 

Where would the fun be if we all knew the ending of the movie?  If we all read the last chapter? 

Unless you are Biff Tannen, it's a crap shoot.  And that's fine by me. 

All that said, glad I am not in your league, since you seem to have it all figured out!  

Ah, I kid..

I love the unknown with this hobby.   Keeps the feverish banter alive and well! 

 

As far as the hype? Most of these "experts" are laughable.  I go with what I think, couldn't really care less what most have to say. If I am wrong, so be it.  It happens a lot.  LOL 

[kilroy69 994]

I had Dede Westbrook as being the number 1 overall wr at the start of the year based on foles hitting the slot wr more than anyone in the NFL.

 

Foles breaks in the first game and Minshew spreads the ball. 

[easilyscan 559]

Quote

OBJ would break records this season as Mayfield is so much better than Eli ever was.

Love it!

[jgcrawfish 232]

23 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Always keep in mind the nursery rhyme your nannies used to sing you to sleep...

Listen to the Elf,
    Trophy on the shelf.
Listen to the others,
    Go crying to your mothers.

No one cares to listen to an elf,

not one person, anywhere, including myself.

His picks do suck, bad advice in bevy,

spewed by a jackass, and just as heavy.

If you seen "the" pic, you know he's hairy,

like a wombat bred with woodland fairy.  

So join in the chant to put elf on a shelf,

take your arrogant ass away, go eff elf-yourself! 

 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Read back in the summer that Allison was going to play slot with Rodgers at Qb. 

Yeah.  

 

[stonewall 647]

17 hours ago, jgcrawfish said:

 

If you seen "the" pic, you know he's hairy,

like a wombat bred with woodland fairy.  

 

Line of the year....

[EternalShinyAndChrome 2,520]

18 hours ago, jgcrawfish said:

No one cares to listen to an elf,

not one person, anywhere, including myself.

His picks do suck, bad advice in bevy,

spewed by a jackass, and just as heavy.

If you seen "the" pic, you know he's hairy,

like a wombat bred with woodland fairy.  

So join in the chant to put elf on a shelf,

take your arrogant ass away, go eff elf-yourself! 

Post of the year!