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edjr

Will the Bungles go full bungles and keep the #1 pick?

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5 minutes ago, edjr said:

Not sure I said Tua, pretty sure I said #5 (in this specific post)

You said Tua in the OP. :dunno: 

Justin Herbert at 5? Or pass on QB til next year? 

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9 minutes ago, MDC said:

You said Tua in the OP. :dunno: 

Justin Herbert at 5? Or pass on QB til next year? 

you weren't replying to the OP :dunno:

Anyhow, rumor has it they only make the trade if Tua is there at 5. 

I still say they make the trade and save up capital and try for lawrence next year

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3 minutes ago, edjr said:

you weren't replying to the OP :dunno:

Anyhow, rumor has it they only make the trade if Tua is there at 5. 

I still say they make the trade and save up capital and try for lawrence next year

:lol: 

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The Lions are the most likely candidate to trade back. The Giants aren’t taking Okudah and I doubt the Redskins are gonna pass on Young. 

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33 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Absolutely.  If they pass on him, they lose the local fans and the media. He will be at least solid. There is no downside.

Cincinnati is a Reds town. The Bengals lost the fans and media sometime around 1989

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They should trade down.  Then draft needs besides QB.  Tank the season and get your QB next year at #1.  

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32 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Cincinnati is a Reds town. The Bengals lost the fans and media sometime around 1989

Well then. You draft Joe. They'll return. They certainly won't for an 18th pick.

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7 minutes ago, NorthernVike said:

They should trade down.  Then draft needs besides QB.  Tank the season and get your QB next year at #1.  

That almost never seems to work in the NFL. The Dolphins tanked last year and they’re picking 5. 

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2 hours ago, edjr said:

if the Bungles draft Burrow at #1, they will further prove to the dumbest NFL franchise ever.

Burrow is not good enough alone to help the bungles not be the bungles. 

But 3 draft picks from Miami just might do the trick, or at least be a great start.

They would get #5, #18 and #56 in this years draft

NO BRAINER!


Tua could be there at 5 and he will be better than Burrow (especially Burrow if he were on the Bungles)

A sure bet as the second quarterback taken behind likely No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, Tagovailo's chances of slipping any further than No. 3 off the board become increasingly unlikely with every passing day.

RELATED: 
Apr 1, 2020, 4:46 PM ET
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6 hours ago, NorthernVike said:

They should trade down.  Then draft needs besides QB.  Tank the season and get your QB next year at #1.  

It’s the bungles. Tanking is not necessary. 

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1 minute ago, frank said:

It’s the bungles. Tanking is not necessary. 

I know this was a joke, but in the past 10 years they’ve picked 11,  21, 9, 24, 21, 24, 21, 17, 4, 21 and 6.

Even teams that are historically awful rarely get the chance to pick the top player on their board without moving up.

The last time the Bengals picked #1 was 2003 when they drafted Carson Palmer. He never quite lived up to his pedigree. But he’s still 14th in career passing yards and 13th in TD passes. And he gave the Bengals 7+ years of mostly above average QB play and two Pro Bowls. He’s arguably the 2nd best QB in franchise history. 

If Joe Burrow is the top QB on their board they would be insane to pass on him for the hope of getting someone almost as good plus what? An interior OL and linebacker or something?

Just draft Burrow.

I know you didn’t ask, just saying. ;) 

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51 minutes ago, MDC said:

I know this was a joke, but in the past 10 years they’ve picked 11,  21, 9, 24, 21, 24, 21, 17, 4, 21 and 6.

Even teams that are historically awful rarely get the chance to pick the top player on their board without moving up.

The last time the Bengals picked #1 was 2003 when they drafted Carson Palmer. He never quite lived up to his pedigree. But he’s still 14th in career passing yards and 13th in TD passes. And he gave the Bengals 7+ years of mostly above average QB play and two Pro Bowls. He’s arguably the 2nd best QB in franchise history. 

If Joe Burrow is the top QB on their board they would be insane to pass on him for the hope of getting someone almost as good plus what? An interior OL and linebacker or something?

Just draft Burrow.

I know you didn’t ask, just saying. ;) 

Yep. Qb is everything. Identify the best one. Take him.

You look at the RG3 trade... The Wentz trade... The Goff trade... 

The team that got a bounty of picks... It's nice. But it's not the be all end all. None of those teams have sniffed a super bowl. 

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10 hours ago, MDC said:

See TBay’s post above.

If the Bengals think Tua is a better or safer pick than Burrow, go ahead and take him. 

Banking on drafting Tua at 5 would be dumb. Passing on the QB they like best just to potentially get a few other starters would be dumb too.

Just Let Burrow and Tua go 1-2 or 2-1 please.

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1 minute ago, Voltaire said:

Just Let Burrow and Tua go 1-2 or 2-1 please.

You're not getting young my friend. You will quite likely get a buttload of picks for Tua though. 

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10 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Yep. Qb is everything. Identify the best one. Take him.

You look at the RG3 trade... The Wentz trade... The Goff trade... 

The team that got a bounty of picks... It's nice. But it's not the be all end all. None of those teams have sniffed a super bowl. 

QB is everything :wacko:

Philly won with Foles, St Louis made it with Goff, niners made it with Jimmy G, bronocs won it with a manning that couldn't throw, ravens won with Flacco, 

PLEASE! Tell us how Quarterbacks are EVERYTHING!  

stop the focking madness

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Ed makes a good point. There are many different ways to win in the ever evolving NFL.  But, if you want your team to be competitive year in, year out, a top QB is your best bet. If you win with defense, it’s hard to keep the unit together with free agency.  Ive said it before, there is no one way to win anymore in the NFL. Too many teams, too many variables. 

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I saw an article a little while back that said that 50% of first round picks are busts. Not that they are bad players, but don't live up to where they were drafted. And with each round it's a higher % of busts. 

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Im not saying take Burrow because you feel you have to.  But if you and your scouts feel he is the best QB on the board and trading back wont even land you your 2nd choice at QB....then why trade?  Why have scouts?

Now if people want to argue it is much more of a crapshoot than most people and experts think it is then there is an argument for that.

We can act like its a video game and say well just trade back now. Tank. Then draft Lawrence next year.  We can play in the land of make believe.  Im sure many would choose that route if it was a sure thing.

 

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

QB is everything :wacko:

Philly won with Foles, St Louis made it with Goff, niners made it with Jimmy G, bronocs won it with a manning that couldn't throw, ravens won with Flacco, 

PLEASE! Tell us how Quarterbacks are EVERYTHING!  

stop the focking madness

QB isn’t EVERYthing. But most teams who win championships get great QB play. 14 of the past 20 SBs were won by Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Wilson and Mahomes. 

The remaining 7 all had historically great defenses (Ravens, Bucs) or great D plus QBs who caught lightning in a bottle (Giants, Eagles). So unless you’ve got a D with Warren Sapp lining up next to Simeon Rice and a bunch of HOFers in the back 7, drafting a franchise QB is your best route to success.

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5 minutes ago, MDC said:

QB isn’t EVERYthing. But most teams who win championships get great QB play. 14 of the past 20 SBs were won by Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Wilson and Mahomes. 

The remaining 7 all had historically great defenses (Ravens, Bucs) or great D plus QBs who caught lightning in a bottle (Giants, Eagles). So unless you’ve got a D with Warren Sapp lining up next to Simeon Rice and a bunch of HOFers in the back 7, drafting a franchise QB is your best route to success.

The Giants had the 26th ranked defense in 2011. If you’re going to be all factual, try and get your facts right. 

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20 minutes ago, MDC said:

QB isn’t EVERYthing. But most teams who win championships get great QB play. 14 of the past 20 SBs were won by Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Wilson and Mahomes. 

The remaining 7 all had historically great defenses (Ravens, Bucs) or great D plus QBs who caught lightning in a bottle (Giants, Eagles). So unless you’ve got a D with Warren Sapp lining up next to Simeon Rice and a bunch of HOFers in the back 7, drafting a franchise QB is your best route to success.

Warner, Brady, Wilson, Big Ben and Holmes were all number 1 picks, right? 

Thank you for making my point

 

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39 minutes ago, edjr said:

Warner, Brady, Wilson, Big Ben and Holmes were all number 1 picks, right? 

Thank you for making my point

 

What is your point?

Burrow will be a bust? Tua is better than Burrow? You can get great QBs anywhere in the draft? Teams don’t need great QB play to win? Three picks is better than the first overall? 

Seems like you keep changing whatever point it is you’re trying to make. 

:dunno: 

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8 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Ed makes a good point. There are many different ways to win in the ever evolving NFL.  But, if you want your team to be competitive year in, year out, a top QB is your best bet. If you win with defense, it’s hard to keep the unit together with free agency.  Ive said it before, there is no one way to win anymore in the NFL. Too many teams, too many variables. 

Yeah. If you want a decade or more of success, better have a stud qb.

Kinda funny Ed, fan of the team with the lottery ticket 6th round goat, is the one arguing this. 

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Traditionally, QBs taken top 5 have about a 50% chance to make it in the NFL (currently the odds have slipped slightly under 50% in the top 5 now).  The odds of QBs making it outside of the top 5 picks quickly slump to something like 1 in 30 in rounds 2 or lower.  If you need a QB, the correct strategy is to grab a QB if you have a top 5 pick if he's there.

QBs taken in the top 5:

2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington
2003: Carson Palmer
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers
2005: Alex Smith
2006: Vince Young
2007: none selected
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez
2010: Sam Bradford
2011: Cam Newton
2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III
2013: none selected
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
----still too early----
2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz
2017: Mitchell Trubisky
2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold
2019: Kyler Murray
 

18 QBs selected from 2001-2015.  8/18 made it. 

Now let's look at first round QBs outside of the top 5:

2001: none selected
2002: Patrick Ramsey
2003: Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2004: Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman
2005: Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2006: Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007: Brady Quinn
2008: Joe Flacco
2009: Josh Freeman
2010: Tim Tebow
2011: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2012: Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: E.J. Manuel
2014: Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
2015: none selected
---still too early----
2016: Paxton Lynch
2017: Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson
2018: Josh Allen, Josh Rosen (Lamar Jackson was first pick of the second round)
2019: Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

23 QBs selected from 2001-2015.  2/23 made it.  Outside the first round its like 1 in 30.

But you just KNOW that because Mahomes made it, people are going to succumb to recency bias and start advocating for trading down to find the next Mahomes, or picking QBs in the middle of round 1 in droves for a few years.  They remember Mahomes but don't remember Freeman or JP Losman.  That's just people being dumb.  In short, the Bengals have the 1st overall pick, they should just select a QB instead of gambling by trading down.

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One thing to note:  the last bona fide stud QB selected top 5 was Andrew Luck in 2012.  Everyone else has struggled at least some.

Top 10 in passing TDs in 2019:

1. Lamar Jackson (2nd round)
2. Jameis Winston (top 5, lost his job)
3. Russell Wilson (3rd round)
4. Dak Prescott (4th round)
5. Carson Wentz (top 5)
6. Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd round)
7. Drew Brees (2nd round)
8. Matt Ryan (top 5)
9. Aaron Rodgers (first round outside of top 5)
10. DeShaun Watson (first round outside of top 5)

That list is dominated by guys in round 2 or lower.  However, you don't see all the MISSES in round 2 or lower.  The odds of hitting on a QB down there is about 1 in 30.  Good luck!

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The only top 5 QB in the 21st century to win a super bowl as a starter is .... Eli Manning.  Another feather in his cap to make the Hall of Fame.

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Isnt Tua damaged goods? Like he has some degenerative stuff or something and won’t be the same? Seems like a land mine anywhere in rnd 1. Take safer bets early and go after the next tier of QBs that ran pro style offenses and completed 3rd down passes.

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Its likely at the conclusion of the next season, I'll move Goff and Wentz into "they made it" status, which updates the numbers for top 5 QBs to 10/20, or 50% on the nose.

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5 minutes ago, riversco said:

Its likely at the conclusion of the next season, I'll move Goff and Wentz into "they made it" status, which updates the numbers for top 5 QBs to 10/20, or 50% on the nose.

Would like to see Wentz win a playoff game first. 

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Off topic and it isnt a mark against Tua or Burrow.  But I like the Herbert kid.

 

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The projections are that 3 QBs will go top 5 in the 2020 draft.  Burrow, Tua, and Herbert.  The last time 3 QBs went top 5 was 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith).  Only McNabb made it.

Before that, the last time it happened was 1971:  Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning, and Dan Pastorini went 1-2-3.  Manning was the stud.  Plunkett and Pastorini won 3 rings. 

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Just now, riversco said:

The projections are that 3 QBs will go top 5 in the 2020 draft.  Burrow, Tua, and Herbert.  The last time 3 QBs went top 5 was 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith).  Only McNabb made it.

Couch shouldn’t be included as a bust. He never had a chance. Never mind it was Cleveland, it was expansion Cleveland 

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13 hours ago, titans&bucs&bearsohmy! said:

Yeah. If you want a decade or more of success, better have a stud qb.

Kinda funny Ed, fan of the team with the lottery ticket 6th round goat, is the one arguing this. 

Did they draft Brady at #1 or did they draft well in other spots and not waste a high pick on a QB?

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12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Couch shouldn’t be included as a bust. He never had a chance. Never mind it was Cleveland, it was expansion Cleveland 

:thumbsup:   Just like Burrow. I say the same for Rick Mirer. Had he gone to a lot of other places, he may have had a chance. If the Pats take Mirer and not Bledsoe, Mirer would have been good with Tuna as his coach.  

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7 minutes ago, edjr said:

Did they draft Brady at #1 or did they draft well in other spots and not waste a high pick on a QB?

You forget that the Patriots already had a QB that they drafted as #1 overall who was in his prime and had a $100m contract.  Brady was their 4th QB in his rookie season.  They got lucky and never expected that Brady would see the field as #199 overall. 

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7 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

You forget that the Patriots already had a QB that they drafted as #1 overall who was in his prime and had a $100m contract.  Brady was their 4th QB in his rookie season.  They got lucky and never expected that Brady would see the field as #199 overall. 

His prime? :o  0 and 2 when he got hurt, 5-11 the previous year 17 td 13 int, 8 and 8 the year before 19 td and 21 int   HAH!

Stop the focking madness.

The Bungles have Andy Dalton, do they not? 

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4 minutes ago, edjr said:

His prime? :o  0 and 2 when he got hurt, 5-11 the previous year 17 td 13 int, 8 and 8 the year before 19 td and 21 int   HAH!

Stop the focking madness.

The Bungles have Andy Dalton for christ sakes!

He was 29.  That is prime for a QB.  You listen to too much sports radio.  

Refute any of the rest of what I posted. 

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